Evans can win Le Tour!

[Moondance]

HOW DID I FORGET? Of course there is Mollema.

Juan Manuel Garate, Laurens ten Dam, Steven Kruijswijk... Taking it further you could include guys who aren't pure climbers like Paul Martens, Bram Tankink, Carlos Barredo or Pieter Weening.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Juan Manuel Garate, Laurens ten Dam, Steven Kruijswijk... Taking it further you could include guys who aren't pure climbers like Paul Martens, Bram Tankink, Carlos Barredo or Pieter Weening.

Kruijswijk, Mollema have never ridden the tour. I would say that Rabo's team ain't that much better than BMC. Other than Sanchez, who does Rabo have for the ttt. It is only 23km but teams could lose significant time.

 

[Sydney21]

I totally agree he can win the tour but Andy and Frank will obviously be favourites. Should be an exciting and open race for once.

My Team Would Be:

Evans
Hincapie
Ballan
Quinziato
Moniard
Tschopp
Morabito
Santambrogio
Burghardt

That team should have the ability to ride a strong TTT and provide reasonable support in the mountains. I wouldn't pick Bookwalter simply because I have only ever seen him ride one really good race. No Santaromita just because he should ride the other two GT's. No Van Avermaet as he should ride the Classics and World Champs at 100% therefore ride the Vuelta too. No Phinney as he should ride Cali and other week long stage races + classics at a high level and then Ride the first couple of weeks at the Vuelta as his first GT. Have to avoid overloading him.

 

[insideout leadout]

Tschopp made huge improvements last year, didn’t he drop Simoni, Vino and other good climbers when he won in Passo Tonale? I thought that was very impressive by a rider who never showed any glimpse of ability like that before. As for climbing skills I would rate him top-3 in the BMC squad. BMC looks strong indeed and it’s always nice to have Evans high up in the GC fighting for the win.

 

[hrotha]

Kruijswijk, Mollema have never ridden the tour. I would say that Rabo's team ain't that much better than BMC. Other than Sanchez, who does Rabo have for the ttt. It is only 23km but teams could lose significant time.

Barredo is a pretty decent time trialist, Tjallingii is good, so are Van Emden and Boom, Martens doesn't suck either, and teams can't lose significant time in 23 km.

 

[theyoungest]

Kruijswijk, Mollema have never ridden the tour. I would say that Rabo's team ain't that much better than BMC. Other than Sanchez, who does Rabo have for the ttt. It is only 23km but teams could lose significant time.

Kruijswijk won't be there, he'll do the Giro again. And while we joke about Mollema, the kid is just a natural talent, and I have no doubt he'll do pretty well.

For the TTT, Rabo don't really have any outright specialists, but they do have some all rounders who can handle a TT pretty well: Tjallingii, Niermann, Barredo, Martens... they all have the added benefit that they don't get dropped on the first hill.

BMC's TTT squad looks okay, but it's not exactly filled with Cancellaras either. I'm wondering which guys Liquigas will bring... their support squad seems slightly less impressive than last year.

 

[Angliru]

My only question is how can a rider who labels himself and is labeled a Tour contender knowingly on a yearly basis, show up for the biggest event on his calender "fatigued"? At what point does a light go on and the idea to alter one's schedule to avoid being fatigued come Tour time enter a person's mind? Last year it is understandable but all the years before that are at the least quite curious.

Unfortunately, I don't see anyway that Evans will be able to better Schlecklet and Basso at the Tour. He'll be in a battle for the final podium spot with Sammie Sanchez and I predict it will be a losing battle.

 

[Tuarts]

He needs a second GC potential rider.



Hugh

Like Jurgen Van Den Broeck?

 

[El Pistolero]

If Contador only gets a one year ban he'll still have a better 2011 season than Cadel Evans.

That's a big if sadly.

 

[insideout leadout]

My only question is how can a rider who labels himself and is labeled a Tour contender knowingly on a yearly basis, show up for the biggest event on his calender "fatigued"? At what point does a light go on and the idea to alter one's schedule to avoid being fatigued come Tour time enter a person's mind? Last year it is understandable but all the years before that are at the least quite curious.

Evans is a hard worker, if he got the slightest chance to win anything he takes it. Not the smartest way to prepare for a grand tour. But at the same time you gotta admire him for the effort. Riders like Armstrong and Schleck only got one goal and ignores the rest of the season. The Tour is important but it isn’t everything. I think it would be hard for Evans to soft pedal races in preparation for the Tour because when the bib is on he's expected to race with the best. If the decision is between hanging out in the back of the peloton together with Schleck and Armstrong or stay up in the front trying to win a "less" important race, I think it's pretty clear what Evans will do. I think he got a different mind set to racing and it's hurting him in terms of his Tour prep.

 

[galaxy1]

Morabito this year on the stage to Morzine Avoriaz was with Cadel and was on the fron riding for Cadel. Cadel was one of the last guys to have team mates up front.

keeping up with Cadel at the tour hasn't been difficult recently, unfortunately.

i predict more of the same. grimly hanging on for a minor placing, as usual without ever really racing for the title. he has won 1 tour stage that i can remember in 6(?) complete tours, and i can't see him doubling that this year.

the only positive from his point of view is that proven winners are going to be thin on the ground. Schleck is miles better than Cuddles but also mentally suspect in my view.

 

[Anonymous]

Nah, Cadel and Baby Schleck will be so busy wheelsucking each other, that Vino will attack and make up 12 minutes on one stage.

For what its worth ive got money on kreuziger at 80/1

edit: about five minutes after i got 80/1 and put it out on twitter, his odds dropped to 50/1 grrr...

 

[movingtarget]

Sadly Evans has already had his two best chances to win. He made an error of judgement one year and the next he was beaten by a fall and an opposing team that was head and shoulders above every other team in the race.

Andy Schleck deserves to be favourite but he is not unbeatable. His brother will just ride by his side as long as possible and then lose time in the time trial. I don't see Frank as a threat. There will be huge pressure and expectation on Andy Schleck's shoulders now. He will be expected to win.

I think Evan's team is no worse than his old Lotto team. He is due a change of luck and this could be his last chance to seriously challenge for the overall. Moinard was a good buy, and BMC has some promising younger riders along with the more experienced riders. A fresher Evans should also be better in the time trial, at least in theory. I would love to see him win but he has a tough job ahead of him even with Menchov and Contador out of the picture.

 

[Cobblestoned]

Reasons why Cadel will not win le Tour:

1. Andy Schleck
2. That is all...

2. Samy Sanchez
3. F. Schleck
4. R. Gesink

Evans will never ever win the Tour.

 

[taiwan]

I think if Evans had been in peak condition for the 2010 tour, he would have been around the level of, say, Sanchez. Contender for the podium I'd say. Obviously anything can happen, so if you're aiming for the podium, you might end up winning. He could possibly be surpassed by JVDB though, which would be a bit depressing (pretender to his throne at Lotto).

 

[Archibald]

2. Samy Sanchez
3. F. Schleck
4. R. Gesink

Evans will never ever win the Tour.

er... Basso? surely will be in the top four if not on the podium

it's unfortunately the Evans puts so much into every stage or race he enters. He just doesn't seem to know the meaning of "backing off", in much the same way that Vino tends to constantly explode at some point.
Would love to see him well and truly in the mix after the last two years of mixed fortunes. But anything can happen over the three weeks... even Andy can crash out on an early stage losing massive amounts of time - preferrably when spartacus isn't in yellow...

 

[Angliru]

Evans is a hard worker, if he got the slightest chance to win anything he takes it. Not the smartest way to prepare for a grand tour. But at the same time you gotta admire him for the effort. Riders like Armstrong and Schleck only got one goal and ignores the rest of the season. The Tour is important but it isn’t everything. I think it would be hard for Evans to soft pedal races in preparation for the Tour because when the bib is on he's expected to race with the best. If the decision is between hanging out in the back of the peloton together with Schleck and Armstrong or stay up in the front trying to win a "less" important race, I think it's pretty clear what Evans will do. I think he got a different mind set to racing and it's hurting him in terms of his Tour prep.

I didn't mean to imply that he's not one of the steadiest and more consistent riders in the ranks, just that if he knows that his schedule is leaving him fatigued coming into the event that he covets the most, why hasn't he altered it? His record in consistency in the events that he enters is without question impressive, maybe scale back those events and maybe ride for his teammates in others if he needs/wants the competitive training.

 

[jens_attacks]

i'll be happy for him but i don't think it will happen.i still think that he has a chance to grab a vuelta though.
this year to beat andy and basso will be very very hard.

 

[Ryaguas]

Morabito this year on the stage to Morzine Avoriaz was with Cadel and was on the fron riding for Cadel. Cadel was one of the last guys to have team mates up front.

But what about La Col de la Madeleine and Le Tourmalet? Morzine - Avoriaz wasnt a REAL CLIMB last year...

Exactly. And then there's also Ten Dam and Garate, although Garate seems to be a little over the hill.

hey where is Barredo??? dnt forget him!

 

[Jamsque]

Until Evans can show that he has what it takes to hang with the serious climbers on the toughest climbs in the world he is not going to win a grand tour. He's great on short climbs, he's great on long steady climbs that aren't too steep, but in every GT he has contended in so far he has failed to stick with the likes of Contador, Schleck and Basso on the long super-steep climbs.

That said, this year could be his best chance of winning Le Tour since 2008, and given his age and the possible return of Alberto next year it may well be his last. If Andy Schleck has a disastrous time trial, as he does every now and then, Cadel could be in with a real chance. He's going to need some luck, though, and either mistakes, inconsistency or bad form from Basso, Gesink, Sanchez, and the other guys who can out-climb him.

 

[rzombie1988]

Cadel won't win the tour. He gets dropped every year on the long climbs and this year won't be much different. I've watched alot of the old tours recently and I can almost pinpoint the moment he will get dropped. Having a smaller amount of ITT's won't help him either. He has his best chances in 2007 and 2008 and he still couldn't get the job done. This is really his last great chance. If you are a Cadel fan and he doesn't win this year, you should abandon all hope, because he will never have a better chance.

I also have to think Frank is going to podium this year. I know Andy won't drop him until there is no hope left, so I'd have to think Frank will be helped along to a 3rd place finish. The battle for 2nd/3rd will be pretty interesting though. There's atleast 5 or 6 people I could see getting in that spot. If Ricco will race the tour then I'm sure he can podium if not win it as well.

 

[theyoungest]

er... Basso? surely will be in the top four if not on the podium

it's unfortunately the Evans puts so much into every stage or race he enters. He just doesn't seem to know the meaning of "backing off", in much the same way that Vino tends to constantly explode at some point.
Would love to see him well and truly in the mix after the last two years of mixed fortunes. But anything can happen over the three weeks... even Andy can crash out on an early stage losing massive amounts of time - preferrably when spartacus isn't in yellow...

Evans and Basso were more or less equal in the Vuelta 2009. Basso was stronger than an apparently sick Evans in the Giro, that's true, but when both of them are fit, I don't know who's the strongest. Basso is probably mentally stronger, whereas Evans has the upper hand physically (if Aldo Sassi is to be believed).

 

[jens_attacks]

I don't know who's the strongest.

just check their history and you'll see who is the strongest.basso is in the top of the game since 2002.sorry for his fans but cadel has no chance in a battle versus basso.and liquigas is kind of 5 time stronger than bmc.szmyd can do the work of the entire bmc on the mountains.

 

[theyoungest]

just check their history and you'll see who is the strongest.basso is in the top of the game since 2002.sorry for his fans but cadel has no chance in a battle versus basso.and liquigas is kind of 5 time stronger than bmc.szmyd can do the work of the entire bmc on the mountains.

If you don't mind, I'll disregard that part of Basso's history. Also, I'm not that convinced by Liquigas for this year... who will they bring in Basso's support, apart from Szmyd? Not that many great climbers left. Nibali probably won't do the Tour.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Lol, the most mountainous Tour in years, and you think NOW is the best chance Evans has of winning?


He missed his chance back in 2007 and especially 2008. In 2008 he showed every reason why he isn't capable of winning. Contador not even there and he still couldn't do it.