Evans can win Le Tour!

[hrotha]

Lol, the most mountainous Tour in years, and you think NOW is the best chance Evans has of winning?


He missed his chance back in 2007 and especially 2008. In 2008 he showed every reason why he isn't capable of winning. Contador not even there and he still couldn't do it.

Well, it's his last chance, and if Andy has a wardrobe malfunction and withdraws among hysterical screams the title is up for grabs. That said, it'll sound like I'm pandering to you but I have an easier time imagining Gesink in yellow.

 

[Walkman]

Well, it's his last chance, and if Andy has a wardrobe malfunction and withdraws among hysterical screams the title is up for grabs. That said, it'll sound like I'm pandering to you but I have an easier time imagining Gesink in yellow.

Yeah, going for overall in Dauphine should be a reasonable goal for Gesink.

 

[rhubroma]

Evans couldn't beat Basso at the Giro last year.

Does anybody seriously think he can win the Tour? Or if he does, what does that say about le race?

 

[Walkman]

Evans couldn't beat Basso at the Giro last year.

You do know he was sick, right?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Well, it's his last chance, and if Andy has a wardrobe malfunction and withdraws among hysterical screams the title is up for grabs. That said, it'll sound like I'm pandering to you but I have an easier time imagining Gesink in yellow.

And Sanchez

Not so convinced Basso is so much better though. Yes he was very good in the Giro, but I also not have forgotten Vuelta 2009

 

[jaylew]

Well, I don't know if he can, but I'll be rooting for him (and Sanchez). Really, anyone but baby Schleck. Anyone, even his brother.

 

[rhubroma]

You do know he was sick, right?

Sure, but he seems always to have something "not right." I think he doesn't handle the stress well. To win, you have to handle the stress well. If not, you crash, or get sick, or react poorly in critical moments.

He has never won a GT for this reason, because he has lost for all three reasons. And if he happens to win the Tour this year, it will be a by process of elimination (partly before the race even begins). Not because he is the best rider in the world.

 

[The Hitch]

Morabito this year on the stage to Morzine Avoriaz was with Cadel and was on the fron riding for Cadel. Cadel was one of the last guys to have team mates up front.

Agreed. His teammates shouldnt have any problem sticking with him. I remember several of his teammates were able to stay with him on the Madeline

 

[Ryaguas]

Really, anyone but baby Schleck. Anyone, even his brother.

ahhahahahahaha I'm in the same position! Anyone even carebear Cancellara!

 

[Angliru]

You do know he was sick, right?

It appears it is always something:

-His team (Lotto) didn't supply the support he needed to exceed
-He crashes at some point in the event and is hindered by his injuries thereafter
-He always goes into the Tour "fatigued" (who's fault is that?)
-He was "sick" at the Giro, that's why he lost to Basso (?)
-He was riding with a broken: .....................
-The other riders team up on him to stop him from winning
-The Spanish riders conspire against him to prevent him from winning
-His opponents attacked when they realized he had a flat

It's a broken record of unfortunate incidences. Maybe he's snakebit/cursed in the grand tours.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Anybody who wins the TDF does not pass go, collect $200, but goes straight to the clinic.
I'd say the good news for Cadel is that the odds of him testing positive are the same as him winning the Tour.

 

[hfer07]

Evans had the best chance of winning the tour in 08, and he just couldn't. BMC might support him better this time around, but bear in mind he's 3 years older and the strength of his team isn't such to catapult him to yellow in Paris. His only realistic chance relies on finishing second once more and wait for a positive from Andy

 

[meandmygitane]

Evans couldn't beat Basso at the Giro last year.

Does anybody seriously think he can win the Tour? Or if he does, what does that say about le race?

Evans couldn't beat Righi at the Giro last year, lol.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0R6CRJ1RtA

 

[Bike Boy]

Evans is not the guy you want to rule out. btw i think he had a decent level in the mountains in 2007 and won a time trial, I mean Vino has to give up that stage victory right?

I don't see why he shouldn't be capable to hit that level again (especially considering his schedule), only this time he will avoid that insane sandwich attacking repeatedly. Andy can't produce that kind of firework by him self, and don't expect Sammy, andy and Basso to gang up on him, they will fight each other aswell.
Not the favourite either obviously, but he's not doomed with endless misfortune in GT, He's got tons of experince so he should be able to figure out, how to get it right for once

And by the way, how did the insane idea arise that Gesink will be able to go yellow this year? I'm not saying that he wont be a huge factor in the mountains but he's not matured enough to go from 6. place to 1. in a year.

 

[El Pistolero]

I can see Cadel getting third at best if he doesn't have bad luck.

He's a good cyclist, but there are just better GT contenders out there right now. His best shot at victory was 2007/2008, but the Spanish decided otherwise.

 

[happychappy]

I do think Cadel is a bit weird but since he's an ex MTBer he's obviously tough as ****ing nails. I hope he smashes Flunk Schlock (Frank Schleck btw) and wins it.

 

[whittashau]

If you don't mind, I'll disregard that part of Basso's history. Also, I'm not that convinced by Liquigas for this year... who will they bring in Basso's support, apart from Szmyd? Not that many great climbers left. Nibali probably won't do the Tour.

Eros Capecchi, Valerio Agnoli, and Cristiano Salerno are all very promising young climbers. I'd say Szmyd plus one of those three will do the tour and that should be enough support in the mountains for Basso.

 

[jens_attacks]

if amadio feels that ivan is on super form,he will bring nibali for help in le tour.

 

[Cobblestoned]

er... Basso? surely will be in the top four if not on the podium

it's unfortunately the Evans puts so much into every stage or race he enters. He just doesn't seem to know the meaning of "backing off", in much the same way that Vino tends to constantly explode at some point.
Would love to see him well and truly in the mix after the last two years of mixed fortunes. But anything can happen over the three weeks... even Andy can crash out on an early stage losing massive amounts of time - preferrably when spartacus isn't in yellow...

Uh, sorry.
So cuddles will only get 6th.

He has to cool down. You are right.
He always looks so nervous and clumsy. A Mini-Vino I would say.
But anyway, for winning the Tour you have to stay cool and do some selective shots at the right time.

 

[insideout leadout]

I didn't mean to imply that he's not one of the steadiest and more consistent riders in the ranks, just that if he knows that his schedule is leaving him fatigued coming into the event that he covets the most, why hasn't he altered it? His record in consistency in the events that he enters is without question impressive, maybe scale back those events and maybe ride for his teammates in others if he needs/wants the competitive training.

I know you didn't. But I was implying that his consistency could be a possible explanation to why he isn't in tip top shape in July compared to others. He seems to be in "peaked" condition all year round or at least fit enough to win on any given day. The question is if he really is fatigued when the Tour starts or if the shape of others have improved so much that his consistent level isn’t good enough in July. Perhaps Evans will change his mind set to racing and soft pedal more in future preparations but it would be like if Vino suddenly stopped attacking. Not so easy to change.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Cadel is my sentimental favorite.

 

[Boeing]

if you can't handle the surging accelerations in the mountains or generate similar attacks yourself, you cant win the tour.

game over

 

[Angliru]

I know you didn't. But I was implying that his consistency could be a possible explanation to why he isn't in tip top shape in July compared to others. He seems to be in "peaked" condition all year round or at least fit enough to win on any given day. The question is if he really is fatigued when the Tour starts or if the shape of others have improved so much that his consistent level isn’t good enough in July. Perhaps Evans will change his mind set to racing and soft pedal more in future preparations but it would be like if Vino suddenly stopped attacking. Not so easy to change.

Or lessen the actual days of racing he does before the Tour because I don't think soft pedaling is in his nature, this he way he avoids the temptation to compete by not actually being in an actual competition - solo training instead of actual races.

 

[2beeDammed]

Evans can win if the drug cheats are caught before the race starts.

 

[Granville57]

Seeing that I just recently posted a poll about Vande Velde's chances at winning the TdF, how could I not admit the same chances for Cadel?

It would be great to see, no doubt. I tend to think that Basso might be his biggest obstacle to actually getting to the podium, but as I've always maintained: anything is possible over a three-week Grand Tour.

I tend to think that if horrific weather were to befall the 2011 TdF (oh please, oh please, oh please!) then that would work to Evan's advantage. I think he's a tough SOB and would do well if:
The going gets tough (really, really tough).
He stays healthy and uninjured.
He finds just a little bit of good fortune on his side.

And why not? As I also stated in my CVV thread, if the race is Schleck's for the taking already, I'd rather not watch.

Here's to an unpredictable and storm-infused Tour!