Evans can win Le Tour!

[Libertine Seguros]

That isn't even the steepest side of the Zoncolan.

We don't get the Giro in Australia, well at least in 2007 we didn't. My net gets capped here. Four eyars ago I doubt I'd have been able to get a live stream of the Giro for 3 wekks and cope with the data usage not going over quota. I'm not saying AS is crap, he's very, very good. I'm just saying there are some unknowns that might not go to his favour. I wonder how Leopard would cope if Spartacus had a major isse?

That's 2007. They went up from Ovaro. That's the same climb as they rode in 2010 and are riding in 2011.

You're thinking of 2003, when they went up from Sutrio.

I was simply offering evidence to refute your allegation that Schleck had never faced off against anybody other than Contador for a GT.

 

[Havetts]

Aye, been a while since we had some orange to cheer about at the sharp(ish) end of the TdF. I am already chuffed we have a genuine "kopman" again. Although I wished he had another year to mature in the shadow of Menchov under his belt before getting the top seat.

I do have the feeling he's ready for it. He did a great performance this TdF and to my feeling he looked sometimes stronger than Menchov looked.

And yes Basso had a huge advantage with the TTT, but I more had the feeling that Scarponi could only follow Basso when climbing. Didnt have the feeling he was definatly stronger on any stage.

 

[The Hitch]

It looked pretty hard. If it wasn't why didn't Nibali and Basso catch up then. Funny you say this now, when last May it was being spoken of as being hard. It is my perspective. I haven't watched every stage in every GT in the last decade. I'd say Floyd's win in 2006 or Rasmussens last stage in the 2007 Tour are probably the hardest win's I've ever seen. But they were both blatant roid fueled events.

It was exciting no doubt, but that doesnt make it the hardest stage. If Liquigas crashing made it hard, then i propose stage 2 into Utrecht was the hardest as lots of people crashed there.

You dont need to look at other gts for harder stages, just focus on that one gt.. Giro 2010. It Had the Monte Zoncolan which followed a few not too easy climbs. It came the day after Monte Grappa.

If the Giro d italia spent the entire 21 days doing laps of the Strade Bianchi in conditions matching Siberia in the winter, it still wouldnt be as hard as 1 climb of the Zoncolan.

Then theres stage 19. Under appauling conditions which matched Strade Bianchi. Just because they didnt get covered in Mud doesnt mean it was any easier. But under these conditions they had to climb first Aprica, then a dangerous descent, followed by a climb of Trivigno - up to 14 % gradients, which matches any TDF hc climb. Another dangerous descent and onto the Mortirolo. Arguably the second hardest climb in grand tour cycling. You see Evans could handle the Strade Bianchi but he couldnt handle the Mortirolo. Not could Arroyo, VIno or Sastre. Average 11% gradients going up to 18% with the middle section at 13%, an hour climbing, and then a brutal descent of the same beast. Evans almost killed himself.

In fact descending and climbing in rain is far more difficult and dangerous than riding on mud in rain.

And then this was followed by another climb into Aprica.

This stage alone was about 1000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 times as hard as stage 7. Maybe more.

 

[Galic Ho]

Who are? I am struggling to remember anyone even vaguely Dutch to talk about Gesink destroying anything during the TdF.

I don't feel like slandering anyone so I'll drop it. But there is always talk about Rabo and Gesink features heavily in it but it isn't exclusive to the TdF. I was refering to other races more so than the Tour. My bad.

This thread was a long time ago. Probably a bit after you appeared on the forum. It really isn't an issue...just and old "he said, she said" thing. This thread is about Evans Tour chances. Maybe next year we'll see a lot more of them featuring Gesink and Jurgen if they improve some more. No doubt there will be a few about Nibali in the Giro. I'd agree with the statement someone else said. It would have been good for Gesink to benefit from another year watching Menchov have a crack at a GT.

 

[Galic Ho]

It was exciting no doubt, but that doesnt make it the hardest stage. If Liquigas crashing made it hard, then i propose stage 2 into Utrecht was the hardest as lots of people crashed there.

You dont need to look at other gts for harder stages, just focus on that one gt.. Giro 2010. It Had the Monte Zoncolan which followed a few not too easy climbs. It came the day after Monte Grappa.

If the Giro d italia spent the entire 21 days doing laps of the Strade Bianchi in conditions matching Siberia in the winter, it still wouldnt be as hard as 1 climb of the Zoncolan.

Then theres stage 19. Under appauling conditions which matched Strade Bianchi. Just because they didnt get covered in Mud doesnt mean it was any easier. But under these conditions they had to climb first Aprica, then a dangerous descent, followed by a climb of Trivigno - up to 14 % gradients, which matches any TDF hc climb. Another dangerous descent and onto the Mortirolo. Arguably the second hardest climb in grand tour cycling. You see Evans could handle the Strade Bianchi but he couldnt handle the Mortirolo. Not could Arroyo, VIno or Sastre. Average 11% gradients going up to 18% with the middle section at 13%, an hour climbing, and then a brutal descent of the same beast. Evans almost killed himself.

In fact descending and climbing in rain is far more difficult and dangerous than riding on mud in rain.

And then this was followed by another climb into Aprica.

This stage alone was about 1000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 times as hard as stage 7. Maybe more.

Yeah I know how steep they are. The Zoncolan is in the 3 hardest climbs in Europe racing. Last years ascent goes up the steepest side. I was taking the weather and horrid crashes into account as well during the first week of the Giro. Made the first week very hard and was partly why a lot of riders dropped huge chunks of time across the board. Was an eventful GT.

Note I did state in a comment earlier that Evans is all good up till 10% gradient, after that Basso has his number. Which is partly why I was stating I don't see Basso having any ground on Cadel if they both turn up to the Tour in rip roaring form. The Tour touches above 10% for some short sections of climbs, but nothing like the Giro. Much harder parcours.

 

[Galic Ho]

It's difficult to say. The stage that day was incredible, but the stage itself wasn't an ESPECIALLY hard one - but the weather and, most importantly, the way the stage was raced, made it that way. When you say "Why didn't Nibali and Basso catch up"... a group of two vs. a group of between two and five (Cadel and Vino being the only constants) in the same conditions, with the first group having the power of better TTs and more power... I would expect Nibali and Basso to not catch up unless they were waited for. Certainly at first at least Vino and Garzelli wanted to wait, but the stage-hunting Milram riders pushed the pace on.

It was a very tough stage, and one of the best we've seen in years. The problem was just how good a Giro it was; stage 19 was probably even better racing for my money, but then the fact that it was the race on the line probably made it better; the Montalcino stage would definitely have been better as a stand-alone event than the Mortirolo stage.

Either way, I disagree that it's the toughest GT stage of the last decade. Angliru 2002 trumps them all.

You only had to say Angliru. Hardest climb in Europe...well that's debatable, but it is super steep and long. Some people would argue one of the 2009 Giro stages was the hardest. Great number of riders *****ed about the excessive heat. Mick Rogers, an Aussie (note Aussies love the heat) said it was the hottest conditions he's raced in. It's about a number of factors. I should have said one of the hardest I've seen the past decade.

Nibali got held up by Basso's descent on the mud. They had a small window to catch up...problem is they wasted a minute finding their bikes. They got the time back and more later on. Lots of crashes last year made for an eventful race.

 

[Galic Ho]

That's 2007. They went up from Ovaro. That's the same climb as they rode in 2010 and are riding in 2011.

You're thinking of 2003, when they went up from Sutrio.

I was simply offering evidence to refute your allegation that Schleck had never faced off against anybody other than Contador for a GT.

Oh. I remember reading up on the sides before last years Giro. Bloody wikipedia is incorrect then again! How I love reading data and it being incorrect. Well I learnt something today.

I knew Andy Schleck did well in the 2007 Giro. Not a bad introduction to a GT

 

[The Hitch]

Yeah I know how steep they are. The Zoncolan is in the 3 hardest climbs in Europe racing. Last years ascent goes up the steepest side. I was taking the weather and horrid crashes into account as well during the first week of the Giro. Made the first week very hard and was partly why a lot of riders dropped huge chunks of time across the board. Was an eventful GT.

Note I did state in a comment earlier that Evans is all good up till 10% gradient, after that Basso has his number. Which is partly why I was stating I don't see Basso having any ground on Cadel if they both turn up to the Tour in rip roaring form. The Tour touches above 10% for some short sections of climbs, but nothing like the Giro. Much harder parcours.

My point is that Stages 15 and 19 were far more difficult than stage 7 hence stage 7 can not be the most difficult stage.

Oh. I remember reading up on the sides before last years Giro. Bloody wikipedia is incorrect then again! How I love reading data and it being incorrect. Well I learnt something today.

Sorry Galic, but wikipedia was not wrong

This is a copy of the wikipedia page on Monte Zoncolan from October 2008 - over 2 years ago
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Monte_Zoncolan&diff=245130851&oldid=245130797

West from Ovaro: This is a very demanding climb, and one of the most difficult in Europe, usually compared to the Alto de El Angliru. It was featured for the first time in the 2007 Giro d'Italia.

This sentence has been there since 2008 so wikipedia can not have given you wrong information on this subject

 

[Ferminal]

L'Aquilla was probably harder, 250km all underlating, all wet, all the leaders having to chase for themselves. Mentally, I can't imagine a stage being harder.

An hour of pain up Zoncolan or 4 hours of pain chasing in those conditions?

 

[The Hitch]

L'Aquilla was probably harder, 250km all underlating, all wet, all the leaders having to chase for themselves. Mentally, I can't imagine a stage being harder.

Imagine the same weather only instead of going up and down rolling hills, going up and down Aprica, then Trivigno then Mortirolo then APrica again. Not 250 but at 195km longer than most.

Is that not way harder than Laquilla?

 

[Ferminal]

I would have to rewatch. I don't think the weather was quite that bad and I'm not sure there were any team leaders on the front doing work over Trivigno. Over Mortirolo towards Aprica sure was hell. Not sure how long that section took, maybe 1.5-2 hours.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

You only had to say Angliru. Hardest climb in Europe...well that's debatable, but it is super steep and long. Some people would argue one of the 2009 Giro stages was the hardest. Great number of riders *****ed about the excessive heat. Mick Rogers, an Aussie (note Aussies love the heat) said it was the hottest conditions he's raced in. It's about a number of factors. I should have said one of the hardest I've seen the past decade.

I suspect you're thinking of the Monte Petrano stage. 7 and a half hours. Brutal.

The reason I specified the Angliru stage in 2002, however, is because the weather came in, and hard.

http://autobus.cyclingnews.com/road/2002/vuelta02/?id=results/15

Gloom, storm, torrential rain, fog, and through it all, Angliru.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Yeah he did get mentioned, but as you say for obvious reasons. I was talking about the Dutch versions of ACF94, who whilst not as dramatic as ACF94, did expect him to do some major destroying. I just hoped he'd stay on his bike so he could get some experience for later. Someone will start a thread about him, though the talk won't be as vivid as an Evans thread, but there will be some high expectations. I thought he did really well personally last year. Was more impressed by the Belgian heir to Cadels Lotto throne myself. He was very impressive. Didn't think he could crack the top 10, let alone 5th.

I remember one or two of the Dutch declaring Gesink would have won the Vuelta if he didn't put a hole in his leg. I also remember they didn't like me saying that wouldn't have mattered (for various irrelevant reasons), that he shouldn't be stigmatised with that kind of nonesense against guys like Valverde, Samu, Basso and Evans who did come in front of him and who all have shown similar form previously, given his young age. It's the same reason why I don't like hearing Aussies carry on about the Meyer boys and Bobridge. Any good performane deserves praise, but doesn't make them a shoe in for something yet to be shown in a race. When it does however happen, praise should be given where it is due.

The archive from Cyclingnews goes that far back. It's easy to search up. Do it. I bet my entire life savings you can't find such statement.
As the only thing I remember some Dutch regulars claiming, was that he would have gotten on the podium without the hole in your leg.

Now stop trying to be a smartass and come up with actual proof. If you can only back up your arguments by vague posts like "I can remember this and that" without the proof (as I said, can easily be found), than don't post please. But keep your garbage with you.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Arguments, I want arguments. Or do you want me to post his whole list of good to very good time trial results again?
And you again making an opinion about 2 TT's that went bad (Tour 10 and Suisse 10)?

You only see what you want to see

Tour de Suisse tt 40th - A tt course that suited him very well and was in the leaders jersey. Some of his fans on here said he had great form in the tour de suisse yet he puts out a shocker.

Pais Vasco Orio tt - Another course which is hilly. He did finish 15th but in such a field you would expect better.

Monaco tt 2009 tdf, 30th - Sub par for a guy who is a "good time trialler" on a hilly course.

Dauphine Libere Nancy tt, 45th - Another hilly tt course which would suit gesink and 45th is a sub par performance.


Quick comments about other tt's- Beijing was a good result for Gesink in the tt. Though a lot if riders were coming off the tour de france and it was quite a hilly, hard course.

2008 dauphine tt, 10th - Not bad but not great looking at the competition he had.

2009 tirreno adriatic0 tt, 6th - a good result though if Michele scarponi is finishing 4th in a tt then you know something is up.

For you gamblers, Kreuziger is 100/1 on bet365.. and e/w odds are available.

Interesting how menchovs odds have plummeted.

Have you become a kreuziger fan?

Sure. In 2007, he was (moderately-to-heavily) expected to beat Contador in the time trial and take yellow. He failed by 23 seconds.

In 2008 he was (very heavily) expected to beat Sastre in the time trial and take yellow. He failed by 51 seconds.

'choke' is just a figure of speech, and it was in response to Polish using it first. If you prefer, I could say 'has a history of not doing well enough when expected to in the final TT'. Is that more diplomatic? I don't mean to insult Evans, I quite like him as a rider, but well, those things happened in those years.

He has to take 2 seconds for every kilometre. I think Contador was a little under estimated with his ability in the tt at that point. He wasn't that bad. 2008 after the tt, for the pee sample Evans ****ed blood. He was so fatigued and tired after that because he couldn't do no more. The crash on the Stage to Bagneres de Bigorre really took it out of him.

Yeah, and I would win a golden globe if I could act.

Your commitment to your favourite rider is admirable, but at the same time it also makes you seem mentally slow. The fact is that on very steep slopes Evans doesn't have the ability to stay with Basso. This is always the case if they're in similar form.

Kronplatz which has some super steep Gradients, Evans beat Basso. The stage on the Pandera climb in la vuelta he beat Basso and that had some super steep slopes.

 

[skidmark]

He has to take 2 seconds for every kilometre. I think Contador was a little under estimated with his ability in the tt at that point. He wasn't that bad. 2008 after the tt, for the pee sample Evans ****ed blood. He was so fatigued and tired after that because he couldn't do no more. The crash on the Stage to Bagneres de Bigorre really took it out of him.

For sure, there are reasons why Evans didn't win the Tour both of those years, and lots of moments before those 2 TTs that could have made a difference (I've always been annoyed that in 2007 Evans wouldn't have even had a chance of winning if Ras hadn't been kicked out so he wouldn't have had the opportunity to even 'choke', yet he probably wouldn't have been behind Contador if Contador hadn't had Ras to help pace up the Plateau de Beille and the other stages where they dropped Evans - it's kind of the short end of the stick to have your rivals get the benefit of someone who is kicked out). But, fair or not, I'm just saying the perception of the general public going into those 2 TT's was 'Evans should win', and in both cases he did not win. Hence the perception of 'choking'. I'm sure he worked really hard and was hurting, but this is professional cycling. Everyone works really hard and hurts.

 

[La Pandera]

"Not anywhere near his best"... what kind of superhuman being do you consider Basso to be? He did very well in the Vuelta, not much separated the heads of state there, and he certainly was one of them. Also, he already had a GT in his legs since his return, where he got 4th. He probably was a little stronger in the Giro last year, but how are we to know, when the opposition was simply weaker than in the Vuelta? I think he's come to be overrated after his Giro win in a weak field.

...a weak field that included a certain Cadel Evans. Oh, but of course dipping into his encyclopedia of excuses, Evans pulls out the "I was sick" at the Giro" excuse. In all honesty is there no end to the excuses he and his fans have for his failing to win a grand tour? It all gets a bit tired. Is it ever the case that he simply was second best? Just not strong enough or tactically adept enough to win in the end? Can any rider be as stricken with such bad luck and beset with so many obstacles to grand tour success than Evans?

 

[La Pandera]

It's only a hypothetical. People aren't fans of Gerdemann because they know he'll nad a random win, Chavanel or Cunego for that matter. But they cheer anyway and hope. Races allow many opportunities. Are you suggesting Evans racing last year did not see an improvement for the better psychologically? I think his head was better screwed on and that should help his chances this year. Big thing is AC won't be there so he has a chance.

If one is going to talk up the weak field in the 2010 Giro then it has to be applied both ways. Evans had an impressive stage win in extremely trying conditions on what one could call an Ardennes classics like parcours, only with wet dirt/gravel roads added, but versus a "weak" field of competitors-in comparison to the Vuelta 2010 field. This by the estimation of a few posts here. Of course ultimately Evans was thwarted not by the might of his opponents but by a virus that sapped his strength, leaving him less than his best. Was anyone aware that Basso had a virus during the Tour? I'm just reading about this almost 7 months after the fact. In the course of a grand tour everyone is suffering in some way shape or form, it's just that not everyone (and not all of their fans) offers it up as an excuse for not winning.

 

[Denkoff]

Evans looser

 

[tidean]

Evans has a great chance to win a tour if all the dopers got out of the way!!!

 

[tidean]

...a weak field that included a certain Cadel Evans. Oh, but of course dipping into his encyclopedia of excuses, Evans pulls out the "I was sick" at the Giro" excuse. In all honesty is there no end to the excuses he and his fans have for his failing to win a grand tour? It all gets a bit tired. Is it ever the case that he simply was second best? Just not strong enough or tactically adept enough to win in the end?

Can any rider be as stricken with such bad luck and beset with so many obstacles to grand tour success than Evans

Yes every year all the other riders are stricken by obstacles, mainly the guy who comes first & it must be even harder for the 2nd place getter when those riders are later kicked out for doping.
2nd place in the TDF is a magnificent placing if one can honestly put your hand on your heart & say you never doped.

 

[The Hitch]

The archive from Cyclingnews goes that far back. It's easy to search up. Do it. I bet my entire life savings you can't find such statement.
As the only thing I remember some Dutch regulars claiming, was that he would have gotten on the podium without the hole in your leg.

Now stop trying to be a smartass and come up with actual proof. If you can only back up your arguments by vague posts like "I can remember this and that" without the proof (as I said, can easily be found), than don't post please. But keep your garbage with you.

http://forum.cyclingnews.com/poll.php?do=showresults&pollid=285

15 votes from posters saying that if ANdy Schleck were to have an accident or underperform, Gesink would beat everyone else. THis was before Menchov got taken out, and assuming Nibali rides.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Evans looser

What a great contribution! Now Get Lost!

 

[Havetts]

15 votes from posters saying that if ANdy Schleck were to have an accident or underperform, Gesink would beat everyone else. THis was before Menchov got taken out, and assuming Nibali rides.

If Both AS and Contador miss the tour anyone who finished around top 7 this tour + Basso can pick up Tour win this year.

Plus alot of Mountain top finishes this year in the tour, and alot of em above 2000+ meters in which Gesink becomes really strong. Look at the TdSuisse, to la Punt. The stage goes over the Albulapass which is 2200 meters high and he manages to drop everyone. Does say something, doesn't it ?

Though its all wishfull thinking, but its a possibility and probably that could be the reason people voted for Gesink?

 

[Susan Westemeyer]

What a great contribution! Now Get Lost!

Calm down. He has a right to express his opinion, too.

Susan

 

[Havetts]

Calm down. He has a right to express his opinion, too.

Susan

Eventhough its his opinion, its not really argumented well or is it .