Evans' Future

[khodder]

Classics easy season, try to ride as many of the big one day races as he can...Ride the Giro at the end of his form, maybe grab a stage and a seconadry jersey for a few days, the try to win the Vuelta.

Two peak season, one early one late, early for the one day races and classics, late for the Vuelta and maybe the Worlds.

 

[auscyclefan94]

In the interim, he needs to go back to Holland and pick up his team-mates that are still stuck there from the Giro.

No they caught up with him last night and rode like champions.

 

[Jamsque]

I don't think he should stop riding GT's, but I do think he should put more of his energy in to the classics. If he puts his mind to it there is no reason why he couldn't add Amstel, Liege and Lombardia to his Fleche win, and he might even be able to have a tilt at Flanders.

Unless Contador and Schlecklet break themselves (or get suspended) in the same year I don't think Cadel (or anyone else for that matter) is going to win the Tour de France any time soon. A schedule of riding the TdF for stage wins and one other Grand Tour for the overall each year makes sense, he definitely has the quality to win the Giro or the Vuelta some time in the next few years. I'd almost be surprised if he didn't, but he does love to under-achieve in Grand Tours.

 

[slartiblartfast]

It would be best for Cadel's health if he dropped out of the tour now. Publicity and sponsorship considerations weigh against that however, and it would be most out of character. Anyway, he won't be able to do the Vuelta this year because BMC weren't invited - they apparently didn't seek an invite because they knew their resources were stretched thin.

Agreed he should put most of his GT efforts into either the Giro or Vuelta - whichever one Contador or Schleck aren't in! What BMC needs is another genuine GC rider so that Evans do a back up ride in one GT next year (say the Tour) and then go all out, with quality support, in another GT (say the Vuelta). If he wasn't doing the Giro, he could have a good crack at the Tour of California as well.

 

[ColumbusSL]

Come on!!! the guy is TOP cyclist! He is a leader of goodish team that will get better! He is a top 5 finisher in a lot of grand tours! A World Champion! He can and should race both some classics and a grand tour or two every year till his late 30's if he can - that is what he is there for - to race!
He has every chance to get a top 10 in this tour - a very reasonable achievement given his current crashbang status..

 

[Eyeballs Out]

He's a very good, versatile rider and there are dozens of races he can win (classics, the big one week races etc) but while Contador and Schleck are around he can't win the Tour. He can win stages and wear the jerseys though for sure. Now that Valverde is sidelined any ramped finish is winnable for Evans - for example Mende on Friday would be ideal if he didn't have a broken elbow

All in all he's been an excellent signing for BMC - shame about the rest

 

[oronet commander]

He tried that last year. And failed.

Because bad luck stroke again: a badly-placed, too-slow wheel change ruined his chances...

 

[delbified]

Some of the greatest GT riders in the history of cycling would have trouble with this feat, and yet you think a guy who's never even won a GT could.

i didn't say he had to win the double, but riding the Giro first gives him the option of going for the win if he's well placed, or holding back for the Tour if he isn't.

Also, Cadel Evans hasn't never won the tour because of "bad luck." Even at his very best- he can't climb with AC or AS, and he's a worse TT'er than Contador.

based on what? he finished a close 2nd in the 2007 and 2008 tours. he smashed contador in the 2007 TT on stage 19 and they finished within a few seconds of each other at the Beijing olympics.

The only way Evans could win the tour in the foreseeable future is if Contador went down with an injury, and even then there would still be 4 or 5 other guys I would pick first.

like who? apart from contador, who could easily crash, get sick or have a bad day, they're all vulnerable. we'll see how andy schleck goes this year, but his time trialling has been suspect in the past. cadel has taken the fight right up to contador in previous tours. i don't know who else you would nominate ahead of him and on what basis.

 

[movingtarget]

You could tell from Evan's comments that he had doubts about winning but just wanted to see how well he could go after a difficult Giro. The new generation is becoming entrenched and he only probably has two more good years as he is 33 now. He should give the Ardenne classics a miss next season as well as the Tour Down Under and go into the Giro fresher than this year even if Contador does ride. I am sure that Menchov will return to that race as will Basso and many other good GC riders.

Then he can have another tilt at the TDF. He will definitely ride it as he is obssessed with it and his sponsors will demand it. Following year he could try the TDF, Vuelta.

The alternative is start the season early and ride the Tour of Flanders, and his usual classics, have a break and then ride the TDF again. He has options. He still has a lot to offer. He will never go down as one of the luckiest riders. Christian Van De Velde would be his only rival there. Unfortunately his best chances at the Tour have been and gone. He will bounce back and win something when many people have written him off again

 

[koolkinks]

Cadel is a very good rider and looking into his performances at the Fleche and the Strade Bianchi stages of the Giro he can win all the Ardennes Classics. The performance on Stage 3 pave at this Tour where he kept up with Cancellara the winner of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix makes me think he can win the Cobbled Classics as well. As far as the Grand Tours he should concentrate on the Vuelta or the Giro. He lost the Giro because BMC sent half their riders to California and he was not left with any support. Contador and Schleck will both race the Tour every year for the next few years. It is best if he tries to win the Giro or the Vuelta. He is a very good rider and a very gutsy performer who can still win a lot of races. He should not try and win every Grand Tour he enters. He should have skipped the Tour and concentrated on the Vuelta where he was very close to winning last year. After becoming the world champion he has been trying to win too many races instead of a proper program. BMC should try and support him more instead of sending their best riders to California. I do hope that he can manage to win a Grand Tour because he deserves it.

 

[movingtarget]

BMC were never going to turn down an invitation to ride the Tour without their number one rider, the world champion. Evan's was really the only reason for the invite. Practically speaking though, the other two grand tours are much better suited to Evans at this stage of his career. I agree on that point. Sponsors get what they want whether or not it's the best option for their riders. They pay the bills. Cadel will keep giving his best.

 

[eljimberino]

Here Here Koolkinks, where did you come from?

 

[BeachBum]

Count me in the group that says he only has a year or 2 left. However, I don't think he should change his focus. After all, he IS the #1 ranked rider in the world and the reigning World Champion. He hasn't won a GT but other than that he has no complaints. He won a high profile Giro stage, and wore the leaders jerseys at the Giro and Tour. How many sitting WCs can say that?

Given all that, he's not about to win the Tour, not unless AC and AS both crash, bonk, whatever. Still, I prefer a rider that rides year round and gets decent results to one who aims for (fill in the blank) GT/Monument and then crashes or something happens, and then their entire year is up in smoke.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

repeat 10 times - **evans can win the TdF**

he's come so close twice and was looking good this year until the elbow injury. the guy finished 5th at the Giro despite illness.

he is a top level rider on a par with contador and schleck, but has a lot of bad luck. the cause of that bad luck is a matter of conjecture - arguably you make your own - but that is a surmountable problem and his move to BMC is a strong step forward in that regard.

personally i think he should go for the Giro-TdF double again next year.

evans wasn't going to win this tour, irregardless of the injury. He was fresher at the giro, and his downfall was his climbing. He's a good climber, but he was never gonna fight with the guys like schleck and conta.

don't get me wrong, overall he is a great rider. He can tt, is versatile (SB/cobbles) and is a good climber.. but not good enough.

No they caught up with him last night and rode like champions.

Really when BMC were at the front, the front group was pulling away, they were riding very easy I thought. Whereas when saxo/astana took over it caused all sort of damage. Yes steve rode well with him... but evans was almost ten mins behind the lead, you'd expect that from the team if you wanna win a GT.

champions is an overstatement.

I don't think he should stop riding GT's, but I do think he should put more of his energy in to the classics

this.

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He might have 5 more years left in his career, but I doubt he will be competitive for more then 2... maybe 3.

he wont ever win the tour, his best bet is the vuelta in 2011/12
IMO vuelta 2011 will be his real last chance to win a GT.

 

[unsheath]

Retire. So ACF has nothing to post about.

 

[jaylew]

Because bad luck stroke again: a badly-placed, too-slow wheel change ruined his chances...

Not to mention he had ridden the Tour.

I say he should skip the Tour. Do the Giro and Vuelta and try and get a GT under your belt. Right course, right field and he gets one or two, Menchov-style. That and the Ardennes. Maybe a Lombardia.

Unfortunately, the Tour is the GT that suits him the best, but also has the best competition. With Contador just reaching his prime, Cadel is probably SOL. Not to mention the sponsors will want him there, particular with an American team.

 

[Francois the Postman]

Evans should do what Evans wants to do with the rest of his career. With the obvious consequences.

I personally would like to see him hang up his bike in a good few years with a GT on his palmares, but if the Tour chase is the most important thing on his brain, and he hasn't twigged by now that he is simply (just but increasingly so) outclassed, then so be it.

As time will go on he will find it harder an harder to get one of the other two as well. He chances there will decrease rapidly as others are casting their net wider, and that certainly seems to be on the cards. Plus it is getting very crowded around him, with younger riders who will are giving him a good run for his money already, and who will only improve.

He can do great in the classics. Some of those races seem to suit his build, capacity to suffer, and natural ability a lot better. And which are arguably easier to combine with one of the other GTs if you want to win "'em all".

I can see why someone who gets (and got) so close cannot let go of the French dream, but I fear he missed his best chances (by simply not being good enough - just). With the field around him, I feel that his is reduced to chasing his own tail by now already, chasing that maillot jaune around the block.

If it means so much to him, the best of luck to him (he will need it). But I suspect, to me, it would be like witnessing an increasingly sadder story unravel in one inevitable way. I'd rather see him takes his chances elsewhere.

The combo of some classics+ one of the other GTs isn't an option above, I believe, but it's where I would prefer to see him concentrate on.

 

[ScottyMuser]

The problem is, even at top form, he snot a match for Schleck and Contador without the toure being really kind to him - i.e. 2 long, pancake flat ITTs, and no MTF (and in fact no more than 1 cat1 climb a day in the Alps/Pyreneews). Evans just isn't a good enough climber to be able to stick with *every* move, in fact probably isn't, as a pure climber, one of the top 5 climbers in the GC hunt. The thing he does well at are early tour flat ITT. At the end of a 3 week tour, or over a more hilly course, he isn't even good enough in a TT to pull out any time on Contador/Menchov/Basso/Sanchez, and they are all more than capable of putting time onhim overall in the mountains if they ride it well.
Evans should focus on doing a couple of the Ardennes, then Giro, then take a break for the TDF to try and go and win the Vuelta. If he doesn't, and tries for too mucbh, I just can't see him ever winning a GT, which would be a shame (although amusing to tease certain posters with...)
Changing teams would also be an idea, as without a large amount of recruiting over the winrter, we've seen here and in Italy that his tema just aren't strgon enough in the mountains - especially when you'll have a strong Liquigas train in the Giro with the Italian teams also strong, and in the Vuelta Caisse having a stronger team. The problem is there just isn't really any teams who he could go to - Lotto actually may be ideal as they have a really nice lot of young climbers coming through, but I can#'t see him going back there

 

[Michielveedeebee]

I think he should focus his season around the Giro or the Vuelta. He should realise that the TdF is out of his reach now. If he fully focuses on Vuelta/Giro he might actually win it. It'd give his palmares a whole different look and he'd be remembered as a real champion.

 

[delbified]

evans wasn't going to win this tour, irregardless of the injury. He was fresher at the giro, and his downfall was his climbing. He's a good climber, but he was never gonna fight with the guys like schleck and conta.

where does this revisionist appraisal of evans come from? he's taken it to them in the mountains in 2007 and 08. he has had bad Tours in 2009 and 10, but there have been extenuating circumstances for that. he is capable.

schleck is vulnerable, due to his TTing ability. people have judged him this year on two days in the Alps. read LeMond's article on the CN front page today - it's presumptuous to say he is now the king. it remains to be seen how he handles himself in the 3rd week.

contador is the full package and i agree he is difficult for evans to beat, but it only takes one bad day or a crash to wipe him out. to say that Evans has no chance is pessimistic - you don't win Grand Tours with that attitude.

 

[ericthesportsman6]

where does this revisionist appraisal of evans come from? he's taken it to them in the mountains in 2007 and 08. he has had bad Tours in 2009 and 10, but there have been extenuating circumstances for that. he is capable.

schleck is vulnerable, due to his TTing ability. people have judged him this year on two days in the Alps. read LeMond's article on the CN front page today - it's presumptuous to say he is now the king. it remains to be seen how he handles himself in the 3rd week.

contador is the full package and i agree he is difficult for evans to beat, but it only takes one bad day or a crash to wipe him out. to say that Evans has no chance is pessimistic - you don't win Grand Tours with that attitude.

He's not as good of a climber as a was a few years ago, and even then, he didn't "take it to" anyone. He was always dropped at some point.

 

[delbified]

He's not as good of a climber as a was a few years ago, and even then, he didn't "take it to" anyone. He was always dropped at some point.

he kept up with the leaders (to within 10 secs.) on stage 8, with a broken elbow. indeed his performance over the madeleine on st. 9 was heroic, but it doesn't provide a useful means of ranking his form.

saying that his climbing form has deteriorated is the sort of statement that goes down smoothly on this forum, but there's no evidence to back it up. we'll never know what his true form was like for this Tour.

 

[OldSkool]

His future looks bright.

Cadel Evans is paid to be a professional bike rider. In that sense he should do as he's told. However, as a senior member of the team he should have a strong say in his programme and commitments. He has settled in well at BMC, they like each other and the strong show of emotional support from Mauro Santambrogio speaks volumes for team dynamics. So I think Evans is pretty happy with his team and BMC management is pretty supportive of him.

They're a team on the rise, so they have to have a varied programme. Evans has shown that he's one of the best GC riders of the last four or five years (more on that in a moment), rode well on the cobbles in Stage 3 and competes strongly in the Classics. He also wears five colours around his middle and can time-trial a bit. So I think that BMC should use him across their programme to (a) benefit the team and its aspirations and (b) cater to his desires as well. He will show strongly wherever they commit him.

On my remark about being one of the best GC riders around, and his chances in the TDF in particular, there's a lot of comment in these forums that reeks of 'hero or zero'. Stage racing is not a matter of Contador or Schleck, then daylight. Read Greg Le Mond's article. Have another look at Contador's performance on Avoriaz and what he said about breathing difficulties. Read Schleck on nearly dropping himself. No-one is a lay-down misere to win something as complex as the TDF, including those guys. One bad day and anybody can be toast. A diesel engine like Cadel's is just as relvant, valid and potentiallly victorious as the whippy acceleration of a Contador or Evans, especially when it's used across the entire calendar and the entire racing spectrum.

Bike riders used to have to be good at everything. Unfortunately these days we only seem to rate the one who wins, especially when it comes to Le Tour.

 

[Bennyl]

Before his career is over, I'd like to see Cadel target the Giro or Vuelta with a full squad (ie. one as strong as what he has at the Tour now, not what was on hand for the Giro) and leave his Tour aspirations aside just for one year. Give it a real crack for the win. Only because he will never beat Andy or AC in the Tour and I think he deserves a GT win at some time during his career.

Only after he does that, he should go back to riding his beloved Tour. All Pro cyclists want to ride the tour so I can understand why he'd want to be there every year.

In addition he should definitely chase classics wins. This year is really the exception as he has obviously been used to race to promote BMC and ensure they make the ProTour. When they are accepted, he should target specific races once again.

 

[Mach Schnell]

He should drop the whole roadie thing, get back to his roots, race the Crocodile cup, and be a poster boy for Coopers
Much more satisfying I'd say.