exactly. i'm reading self labelled pundits confirming that contador will win by 1:01 +/- 30 seconds over schleck and can rank the next 4 riders after him. LeMond is right - they don't have a clue. obviously the favorites are clear, but we can only wait and see what really happens.OldSkool said:
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You seem to be missing some obvious possibilities like slap fights, tantrums, excuse making, continuing to explode in stage races and of course the most likely option: second place finishes. 
Why do people say retire? I put it up as an option but I did no think ten people would vote for that. Why?
ericthesportsman6 said:
+1 on both counts.
ACF did ask what we thought Cadel would do "in the future". I'm much more certain that at some point in the future Cadel should retire than any of the other options
Evans just hasn't been able to recover well lately. He should stick to 1 week stage races and classics. You never hear anything doping-related about Evans so maybe he's clean and that's the reason he has that bad day in GTs. And didn't Boonen once say he singled out Evans as a rider known to be squeaky-clean?
eljimberino said:
Hi guys I have been a long time fan of road cycling since 1991 when I saw Indurain win the Tour. But I come from India where there is no history of cycling. Being an English speaking country we only have TDF telecasts and that also with the deadly duo of Phil and Paul as commentators. Now I can follow the whole season due to live streaming sites on the net. I have been reading and following road racing for a long time. I just don't think of myself as too much of an expert to post too many comments.
Squeaky sounds about rightLa Vie Claire said:
On the "clean" thing -- was Boonen high when he said that?
________
LovelyWendie
Evans shoud dope, he could do with some HGH to get rid of that squeaky voice...............nah jsut kidding, but his dog could
, but his dog couldoffbyone said:You seem to be missing some obvious possibilities like slap fights, tantrums, excuse making, continuing to explode in stage races and of course the most likely option: second place finishes.
What's Cav got to do with this? And you forgot crashes.
You only have to look at Evans during the race and after to know he has just ridden 200 km's. Others look incredibly fresh compared to him but looks can also be deceiving.
delbified said:
wow ignorant much.
Evans was never at the climbing level schleck/evans/basso(at this year's giro) are at.
Overall he is a great rider, but his downfall has always been in the high mountains. Please don't suggest otherwise.
In 2008 sastre was clearly stronger.
In 2007 AC - young ac, in a weak field - was stronger in the mountains... remember him riding away from cadel..... AC is much better then he was at 07, evans cannot touch him in the mountains. sorry.
Keep on Keepin' on
I wanted to come back to this thread as my initial post to these forums because I have developed a tremendous amount of respect for Cadel over the last 3 years. I foolishly professed disdain for Cadel in the 07 TdF due to my perception that he was a "wheelsucker." As time has passed, and my own cycling career has progressed into the upper categories (amatuer, Cat 2), I have come to realize that not everyone can unleash whithering attacks in the high mountains, and have come to appreciate Cadel's grinding style that does not present as sexily as the attacks of AC, LA, and even Rasmussen.
Last year in the World's I found myself going in cheering for Gilbert and Cance, of course. But when Cadel attacked and it became apparent he would win, I found myself on the verge of emotion.
That said, I think Cadel should split his 2011 season into three phases:
Phase One: The Classics- start out with an early season that plans a peak in the Ardennes. Of course a serious go at Paris-Nice would fit nicely in this plan, aiming for the overall and/or the Queen stage as he took a few years back. I feel MSR is a must for all big time riders, unless the squad is packed to the gills with sprinters (which his current squad is not). Flanders should be within his reach, and I think taking on all the cobbled races might be to his advantage and could find him playing the same role Lemond did for Duclosse-Lasalle for either Ballan or Hincapie. If not, Pais Vasco could provide another week-long SR he could add to his palmares. Then all out for LBL.
Phase Two: After a break and altitude training he should head to either the TdS or Dauphine and shoot for the overall. Then take on the Tour as a stage hunter/top ten contender. Give it up, without luck he can't take out AC and AS, and with the potential rise of Nibali, Krueziger, VDB2, and Gesink, that ship might have sailed in 08. But top ten and a big stage or two as Scarponi did in the Giro in 09 would be a good career addition. This type of fitness should not be hard to achieve either.
Phase Three: All out for the Vuelta, which will be sans AC, and perhaps a tired or unmotivated AS. AS, with a victory next year in the TdF and/or hard ride by his team, might head to the Vuelta for brother Frank as well. This also sets Cadel up for a similar late season as we saw last year with good rides in the fall classics/semi-classics and the WC.
As for what he must achieve before his career ends, I think he at least needs to take out LBL or Lombardia, as well as a road stage in the TdF. Tomorrow (stage 12) looks to be a stage he could take out. His mgt should be on the horn to either Astana or Saxo asking for a little help/cooperation in exchange for some help/cooperation down the road. BMC could also go to HTC or Garmin, now that those two might be motivated and looking for help in the last flat stages.
I wanted to come back to this thread as my initial post to these forums because I have developed a tremendous amount of respect for Cadel over the last 3 years. I foolishly professed disdain for Cadel in the 07 TdF due to my perception that he was a "wheelsucker." As time has passed, and my own cycling career has progressed into the upper categories (amatuer, Cat 2), I have come to realize that not everyone can unleash whithering attacks in the high mountains, and have come to appreciate Cadel's grinding style that does not present as sexily as the attacks of AC, LA, and even Rasmussen.
Last year in the World's I found myself going in cheering for Gilbert and Cance, of course. But when Cadel attacked and it became apparent he would win, I found myself on the verge of emotion.
That said, I think Cadel should split his 2011 season into three phases:
Phase One: The Classics- start out with an early season that plans a peak in the Ardennes. Of course a serious go at Paris-Nice would fit nicely in this plan, aiming for the overall and/or the Queen stage as he took a few years back. I feel MSR is a must for all big time riders, unless the squad is packed to the gills with sprinters (which his current squad is not). Flanders should be within his reach, and I think taking on all the cobbled races might be to his advantage and could find him playing the same role Lemond did for Duclosse-Lasalle for either Ballan or Hincapie. If not, Pais Vasco could provide another week-long SR he could add to his palmares. Then all out for LBL.
Phase Two: After a break and altitude training he should head to either the TdS or Dauphine and shoot for the overall. Then take on the Tour as a stage hunter/top ten contender. Give it up, without luck he can't take out AC and AS, and with the potential rise of Nibali, Krueziger, VDB2, and Gesink, that ship might have sailed in 08. But top ten and a big stage or two as Scarponi did in the Giro in 09 would be a good career addition. This type of fitness should not be hard to achieve either.
Phase Three: All out for the Vuelta, which will be sans AC, and perhaps a tired or unmotivated AS. AS, with a victory next year in the TdF and/or hard ride by his team, might head to the Vuelta for brother Frank as well. This also sets Cadel up for a similar late season as we saw last year with good rides in the fall classics/semi-classics and the WC.
As for what he must achieve before his career ends, I think he at least needs to take out LBL or Lombardia, as well as a road stage in the TdF. Tomorrow (stage 12) looks to be a stage he could take out. His mgt should be on the horn to either Astana or Saxo asking for a little help/cooperation in exchange for some help/cooperation down the road. BMC could also go to HTC or Garmin, now that those two might be motivated and looking for help in the last flat stages.
Yossarian12 said:
+1, really great first post. I Like the stage hunting idea in the TDF. Only problem, with his history as a GC guy at the race, the favorites will be reluctant to give him much leniency, even if he was a ways down.
Yossarian12 said:
Interesting post. I agree with the classics, however, I have reservations whether Cadel ride a top 10/stage win tour. He seems to be the kind of guy who knows only one way - all out. To chase a stage win, he'd have to give up a ton of time and trundle in with the Autobus on a stage. Its not in his nature. I actually think he could take out a stage win in the tour on stages like the two coming up without sacrificing his overall GT chances.
Cadel has said that he can ride two GTs a year and pointed to last year as an example. He did not do the Tour flat out which allowed him to ride at full strength in Spain.
The only other year he tried that he finished 2nd in the tour but tired greatly in the Vuelta to finish 4th i think.
I think the Tour-Vuelta is a better combination that the Giro-Tour as the Giro seems to be tougher.
I do agree that chasing the Vuelta is a good idea, IMHO he deserves a GT win.
Nice post.
schleck (both of them) are still developing. they may turn out to be better than Evans as they grow, but that's premature. both Evans and Andy Schleck have taken it to Contador in the mountains of the Tour.Timmy-loves-Rabo said:
saying that evans is not as good as evans doesn't make sense but i assume was a typo, although it makes your insult hypocritical.
basso outclimbed evans in this year's giro as evans was ill.
he's been injured, sick or his team have been in complete disarray for most of the races on which we can form a judgment. there is good reason to believe he has more to offer than what he's been able to show so far.Timmy-loves-Rabo said:
did you watch the 2008 tour? cadel had to cover, on his own, basically most of team CSC, including both schlecks, sastre and assorted domestiques who wore him down with repeated accelerations until sastre sprung off on Alpe D'Huez.Timmy-loves-Rabo said:
to ignore the enormity of the task facing cadel and just declare sastre stronger is failing to understand how much harder cadel had to work in that circumstance.
not to detract from sastre, but he held all the cards there.
the thread was about what cadel should do. i say he should continue aiming for the tour - even if AC is superior, he could fall off, get sick or become interested in girls and stop training as hard. who knows? you can only line up and try again. champions don't give up.Timmy-loves-Rabo said:
delbified said:
I'm starting think you are just a really big Evans fan. C'mon, how many excuses are we gonna make for his near-misses at Grand Tours. Also, the bolded comment, can you give me an example of when that has ever happened? (not Schleck but Evans)
they're not excuses, well not all of them. he has his shortcomings, but he's also taken positive steps to overcome those. principally, by building a good team around him. i am optimistic that he can use that to deliver good results.ericthesportsman6 said:
you've gotta remember that lotto were pretty useless in supporting him. it's reasonable to believe he'd have won the 2007 and even the 2008 tours if he had a good team, given the small time deficit he finished with. you can call that an excuse, but i think it's realistic. no one with decent knowledge of cycling would argue that a good team makes a significant difference.
2007 tour, he finished 23 secs behind contadorericthesportsman6 said:
auscyclefan94 said:
Cadel's has nothing to apologize for in this year's tour. Could he have outclimbed AC and AS? I don't think so. But he's still a GT threat and needs to focus on winning one before he quits. I think the TDF may be locked up for a few years between AC and AS. Get a Giro or Vuelta win. Continue to win one days and retire a happy man.
I hear Cadel and Levi are both retiring after this tour and joining their true calling, the real fight, as PETA spokesmen. Also cadel plans on living the high life off his new tissue sponsorship
I never can be bothered reading 7 pages to catch up so this may have been said.
Evans will not win the Tour now that Prudhomme is in charge, the parcour that he sets are not balanced any more. Before there was a chance for the climbers to beat the TT'ers, but the balance was to the TT guys. We have now swung to Climbing dominant and now there isn't the options for guys like Evans (and VDV and Wiggins) who will lose time in the mountains to make it back. Evens is the best climber from the TT guys by far. But AC has a good TT and is a natural climber, the tour is designed for him over the last 5 years. (2005 being transitional from LeBlanc)
Oh, and including a long TTT (especially before the first selections, is a croc, everyone knows that, because TT is now so specialised it hurts the overall race
On that basis he should do 1 days and target any GT's with Consideration to the competition and especially the Parcour
(Not that this means anything, though)
Evans will not win the Tour now that Prudhomme is in charge, the parcour that he sets are not balanced any more. Before there was a chance for the climbers to beat the TT'ers, but the balance was to the TT guys. We have now swung to Climbing dominant and now there isn't the options for guys like Evans (and VDV and Wiggins) who will lose time in the mountains to make it back. Evens is the best climber from the TT guys by far. But AC has a good TT and is a natural climber, the tour is designed for him over the last 5 years. (2005 being transitional from LeBlanc)
Oh, and including a long TTT (especially before the first selections, is a croc, everyone knows that, because TT is now so specialised it hurts the overall race
On that basis he should do 1 days and target any GT's with Consideration to the competition and especially the Parcour
(Not that this means anything, though)
I think he should stick with the GTs, to say he had no chance this year was ridiculous, but the broken elbow he'd still be in yellow.
He'd probably have won in 07 had Contador not gained crucial seconds battling with the subsequently chucked out Rasmussen.
'08 Sastre on because he had the way stronger team. Evans had to move from Lotto, that's for sure.
Looking back they may have been his best chance, but to write him off is ridicuous, he's got a couple prime years left yet.
He'd probably have won in 07 had Contador not gained crucial seconds battling with the subsequently chucked out Rasmussen.
'08 Sastre on because he had the way stronger team. Evans had to move from Lotto, that's for sure.
Looking back they may have been his best chance, but to write him off is ridicuous, he's got a couple prime years left yet.
To win either the Giro or the Vuelta first gives a lot of confidence in your self and your team. Confidence you dont gain from being world champ.
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