I’m not sure how many good chances Primož will have to win the tour but I sincerely hope he gets those chances. He deserves a TDF. Last year his team underestimated Pogačar. This year he abandons. Obviously no shame in either case. He’ll be 32 in November. What will his chances be like next season? I’d say decent. I think the danger is the third week, and if someone like Pogačar attacks a long way out in at least one stage. I don’t know if any of the other riders left in the race would have been better than him had he not had that crash, maybe they would have, maybe the Bad weather would have impacted him. Who knows.
If he can get a third straight Vuelta title, then next season he needs to be all in for the Tour. Pogačar will likely not weaken if he stays healthy and motivated and I’m sure other teams wit GV ambitions like Ineos, Movistar, Bahrain, etc will go hard as well. If he wants a tour title he he better get it soon. I am also curious if he’ll want to go back to the Giro, especially if he wins the Tour to try and have all three GT’s? Tackling two GT’s may become difficult in his age, even with a late start in cycling.