Teams & Riders Everybody needs a little bit of Roglstomp in their lives

[Red Rick]

According to Slovenian press there was always plan to attack the pink jersey on final MTT and Rogla was obsessed with that final climb. I guess that fall has changed dynamic in the mountains so JV were riding even more conservative but we will never know. I am almost certain that they did not want to be half of minute behind and put everything on the line for stage 20.

Nah I don't believe that. They brought the break back on Monte Bondone.

I believe the overall plan was simply to make sure to peak in the 3rd week, so which maybe includes going into it undercooked by a little bit. I'm less inclined to blame bad ITT setup for the stage 1 ITT, I think he just did a bad ITT.

Then having a bad crash you need to recover from doesn't help you very much when you were actually slowly working towards your peak.

I think by Monte Bondone they got optimistic because the injuries from the crash stopped feeling so bad but that didn't equate to having great legs yet.

 

[Miha81]

Nah I don't believe that. They brought the break back on Monte Bondone.

I believe the overall plan was simply to make sure to peak in the 3rd week, so which maybe includes going into it undercooked by a little bit. I'm less inclined to blame bad ITT setup for the stage 1 ITT, I think he just did a bad ITT.

Then having a bad crash you need to recover from doesn't help you very much when you were actually slowly working towards your peak.

I think by Monte Bondone they got optimistic because the injuries from the crash stopped feeling so bad but that didn't equate to having great legs yet.

Maybe. Strange Giro. He most certanly he was not in top shape for the start of Giro (I guess they did not want to repeat 2019 Giro "recipe").

Final MTT (as good as it was to watch) was not placed at the right time IMO and consequently killed whole last week's GC action. I am satisfied because I chered for Rogla, but GC racing was atrocious most of the time TBH.

 

[Red Rick]

Maybe. Strange Giro. He most certanly he was not in top shape for the start of Giro (I guess they did not want to repeat 2019 Giro "recipe").

Final MTT (as good as it was to watch) was not placed at the right time IMO and consequently killed whole last week's GC action. I am satisfied because I chered for Rogla, but GC racing was atrocious most of the time TBH.

I think they probably thought that should suit him, so they should have that stage in the back pocket. But I also think it was the first day he truly had great legs.

So what's next. Some publicity *** in Slovenia, then holiday?

Considering it's Jumbo, I would expect them to be pretty early with announcing whetehr he's going to the Tour or not.

 

[Miha81]

I think they probably thought that should suit him, so they should have that stage in the back pocket. But I also think it was the first day he truly had great legs.

So what's next. Some publicity *** in Slovenia, then holiday?

Considering it's Jumbo, I would expect them to be pretty early with announcing whetehr he's going to the Tour or not.

My guess is he is going to skip TDF. And I think this would be wise as I do not see him beating Pogi or Vinge (bar nothing unexpected happens).

I heard from Slovenian cycling circles that he does some very short publicity time and then Holliday and some family time. Even Vuelta is still under question. Unofficially JV was pushing for him to be 2nd violin on TDF to have 1-2 punch as with first half of 2022 edition. All just rumors.

I guess we will learn pretty soon.

 

[tobydawq]

What's the point of going to vuelta? He won this small grand tour 3x already and he can't win lombardia with pocagar and remco there. He should go in le tdf. He doesn't have to do much TT training and he can get a lot bonus seconds. His 2 big rivals are his teammate (which can play in his hands) and a guy who had an injury for the last 5 weeks. He's better than Landa, bardet, Hindley, Bilbao, yates and carapax . He can go without pressure and then to world championship after.

For the Tour I would take
-Vinegaard
-Roglic
-Kuss
-Kelderman
-Benoot
-Laporte
-Van Baarle
-WVA or Van hojdocnk

I swapped Tratnik for Van hojdonck , I forgot how injured tratnik was, he won't be ready for tdf

There are no small Grand Tours...

 

[Krzysztof_O]

What's the point of going to vuelta? He won this small grand tour 3x already and he can't win lombardia with pocagar and remco there. He should go in le tdf. He doesn't have to do much TT training and he can get a lot bonus seconds. His 2 big rivals are his teammate (which can play in his hands) and a guy who had an injury for the last 5 weeks. He's better than Landa, bardet, Hindley, Bilbao, yates and carapax . He can go without pressure and then to world championship after.

For the Tour I would take
-Vinegaard
-Roglic
-Kuss
-Kelderman
-Benoot
-Laporte
-Van Baarle
-WVA or Van hojdocnk

I swapped Tratnik for Van hojdonck , I forgot how injured tratnik was, he won't be ready for tdf

But how, with Giro in his legs, can he beat the Skeletor, who's optimized to absolutely peak in July? Only by some tactical situation (but even then he has to be very strong, otherwise Vinge won't just settle with helping him) or by Vinge crashing. And let's remember that Pog will likely still be quite strong (maybe not enough to beat Vinge but probably enough to beat everybody else).

 

[Rackham]

The Giro was the season's big objective so everything now is just effectively a bonus.

I do think the sponsors would be super interested in having the Giro champ & last year's TdF champ on the same team in July. It would look pretty neat on paper. Also, I know people talk about Pog & Vinge being unbeatable but for me the number one rival of Rog will always be crashes & snafus. Always. They're the number one enemy.

And maybe this is just me but personally in all these predictions about the TdF I think people are seriously underestimating Jai Hindley on this Tour route. Even in France I read about Gaudu & Pinot (especially Gaudu) going for a podium but that Hindley climbing performance on Fedaia last year only needs to be repeated once for him to suddenly become a very credible TdF candidate.

We talk about stratospheric alien performances from the big six but that one in Giro 2022 from Jai Hindley was pretty damn close.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

And maybe this is just me but personally in all these predictions about the TdF I think people are seriously underestimating Jai Hindley on this Tour route. Even in France I read about Gaudu & Pinot (especially Gaudu) going for a podium but that Hindley climbing performance on Fedaia last year only needs to be repeated once for him to suddenly become a very credible TdF candidate.

We talk about stratospheric alien performances from the big six but that one in Giro 2022 from Jai Hindley was pretty damn close.

Yeah, to me Hindley is the most dangerous guy from the rest. His climbing ceiling is very high. If anyone can do sth against July mutants, it's probably him.

 

[Blanco]

I think the weather conditions + crash (which required stitches) did a play role on Monte Bondone. I think the original plan was definitely to smoke the field in the final ITT (Remco included, if he was still there) but his injury certainly had an impact. How much so? We'll probably never find out.

But a GT evolves in a really organic manner, which means his rivals (mainly Ineos) went from expecting him to attack when he was just sitting 2 seconds behind to eventually believing their own guy was stronger when the attacks never came (or weren't hard enough to cause a separation).

And Thomas put in a phenomenal performance in that final ITT as well, i.e. for such a big guy that was an extraordinary climbing performance on those gradients and on that sort of surface. So Ineos weren't exactly wrong, it's just Rog put in the sort of super performance which they've never been able to live with since the emergence of the Rog/Pog generation.

I think with Remco being there, he would've need to attack way earlier, but because of that crash I doubt he would succeed, and imo the win would then really went to Geraint Thomas. I don't think Remco could hold on on the mountains.

 

[Red Rick]

Hindley seems like the big favorite for the 3rd spot behind Vingegaard and Pogacar if he hits his level again. Maybe he's the "and my friend Greg" of the 2023 Tour - even if I can't find the actual twitter video.

For Jumbo I can really see the appeal in having Roglic at the Tour, and for Roglic I could also see some reasons to go to the Tour if he's still feeling good. He'll never go to the Tour with less pressure, and he's never finished the Tour with Tour winning team. That said, if Rog can't put up a decent challenge of his own because he's likely too tired, then it's just not worth it. Also, the chances to play the numbers game in the Tour happen mainly in the Pyrenees, so Jumbo would have to blast the race early.

Neither Tour nor Vuelta would make me a little sad but Jumbo I think have never really had these long preset startlists for the Vuelta.

 

[cellardoor]

He might as well use his good finishing form from the Giro in one of the biggest races of the year - Tour of Slovenia.

 

[Miha81]

Hindley seems like the big favorite for the 3rd spot behind Vingegaard and Pogacar if he hits his level again. Maybe he's the "and my friend Greg" of the 2023 Tour - even if I can't find the actual twitter video.

For Jumbo I can really see the appeal in having Roglic at the Tour, and for Roglic I could also see some reasons to go to the Tour if he's still feeling good. He'll never go to the Tour with less pressure, and he's never finished the Tour with Tour winning team. That said, if Rog can't put up a decent challenge of his own because he's likely too tired, then it's just not worth it. Also, the chances to play the numbers game in the Tour happen mainly in the Pyrenees, so Jumbo would have to blast the race early.

Neither Tour nor Vuelta would make me a little sad but Jumbo I think have never really had these long preset startlists for the Vuelta.

I think Vuelta is more likely. Given that he finished Giro somewhere close to the peak I do not see him ready for the Tour. But lets wait and see.

I am almost certain he will do another grand tour this year since he never showed much interest in classics. Original schedule had Vuelta in it.

 

[BullsFan22]

The higher risk is obviously doing the Tour, but high risk, high reward. It would really fill his palmares if he were to double up the Giro and Tour. That said, winning the Vuelta for the 4th time would be a massive achievement as well. Winning the Giro and Vuelta in the same year wouldn’t do him any harm either.

 

[Rackham]

Yeah, to me Hindley is the most dangerous guy from the rest. His climbing ceiling is very high. If anyone can do sth against July mutants, it's probably him.

Hindley is proof there's no 'old generation versus new generation' on a tangible level in modern pro cycling, there's just some riders who get heavily marketed & publicized no matter their age, versus others who're almost incognito & anonymous; again, no matter their age.

There was a bit of a whacky article in French Eurosport last night about Rogla & how he's a "giant of cycling who people enjoy to forget about" (i.e. he apparently exists outside the top 5 stars of the sport).

It's absurd. He's one of the top champs of this era but what's really going on is some riders get massive exposure whereas others not so much. The media love their narratives about superstars but they're often selective & contradictory regarding 'who' is a star. Hindley is a very low key personality without any hype machine in the media whatsoever, so despite the fact he's a Giro champ & 'only' 27 years old, he might as well be an invisible man going into the TdF.

And regarding stardom, cycling is sketchy insofar as even finishing a GT these days is pretty much the 'first' obstacle a GC rider must overcome before even contemplating overall victory. It's not like Tennis or other sports where champions can be marketed, packaged, delivered & curated for a decade at the top, no, sh*t happens on the road to everyone, i.e. any rider can see his potential snuffed out by misfortune & certain victories which his watts should ensure slip away at any moment.

So like I say, watch out for Hindley (aka a totally underrated rider) & watch out for the obligatory crashes which can destroy anyone's hopes in July.

As for Rog, I'll be happy with whatever makes him happy, aka Tour, Vuelta, Worlds, whatever. It's all a bonus now.

 

[Red Rick]

Jumbo should obviously have the training data of both Vingegaard and Roglic. If they really want to do the 2v1 strategy again they must believe he's at least close enough in level to be a threat to Pogacar. I don't get the sense he's supposed to go be there and just be a lightning rod before dropping 5 minutes and join into the Kuss role when he gets dropped.

I'm also a bit sad he didn't get to do even 1 mountain stage healthy in the 2022 Tour, cause the prologue alone made me think he started the Tour in better form than this Giro.

 

[Divergence]

But how, with Giro in his legs, can he beat the Skeletor, who's optimized to absolutely peak in July? Only by some tactical situation (but even then he has to be very strong, otherwise Vinge won't just settle with helping him) or by Vinge crashing. And let's remember that Pog will likely still be quite strong (maybe not enough to beat Vinge but probably enough to beat everybody else).

I believe he can beat him because he is the better rider. In fact, I believe he is the best rider out there if he is at top shape. Unfortunately, it seems like he is always affected by some injury or a crash.
In any case, I do not know how Rog feels right now and how much time does he want to spend with his family, but I believe he can be at an excellent level at the Tour if he puts his mind and effort to it.

 

[Gargamel35]

Latest Slo press interview confirmed, that he had a lot of problems because of that crash with Ineos guys. And he wasn't able to develop power and stamina as he would like.
He also confirmed, he expects to rest for a while and pick and choose upcoming races because he want's to be with his family more. So no TdF this year.

When asked what's his next big goal for him he didn't want to answer directly, but at the end, he said: you all know what's missing, eh?

 

[Red Rick]

Latest Slo press interview confirmed, that he had a lot of problems because of that crash with Ineos guys. And he wasn't able to develop power and stamina as he would like.
He also confirmed, he expects to rest for a while and pick and choose upcoming races because he want's to be with his family more. So no TdF this year.

When asked what's his next big goal for him he didn't want to answer directly, but at the end, he said: you all know what's missing, eh?

I think I read a translation of the same interview. So TdF next year. I guess Vuelta next but all the "we will see" talk is more about enjoying the moment right now and needing a few weeks off rather than not going back to race in the rest of the year.

Interesting what he said about Thomas, I didn't know they were actually good pals.

 

[Miha81]

He might as well use his good finishing form from the Giro in one of the biggest races of the year - Tour of Slovenia.

It would be fun as a promo race especially as Pogi is almost certainly not doing it. Fresh Giro winner parading in front of Slovenian fans.

But I guess both Rogla and JV team have other plans ahead...

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

I think I read a translation of the same interview. So TdF next year. I guess Vuelta next but all the "we will see" talk is more about enjoying the moment right now and needing a few weeks off rather than not going back to race in the rest of the year.

Interesting what he said about Thomas, I didn't know they were actually good pals.

What did he say about Thomas?

 

[Red Rick]

What did he say about Thomas?

This is what was put through google translate

"“We’re friends and I told him, man, it’s a little bitter-sweet feeling, but it was a pleasure to fight someone like him. We both enjoyed it, it has to be a winner, but it doesn't bother us, it won't change our relationship, we'll continue to drink some beer together," the 33-year-old Slovene described the relationship with Valijan, with whom they are, so to speak, neighbors in Monaco, and their eldest sons often play together.?

 

[Lequack]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1662692509540139011

View: https://twitter.com/derailleurkate/status/1662692509540139011

 

[cellardoor]

I have a tear in my eye after reading that article above by Kate Wanger.

 

[Cassirer]

I believe he can beat him because he is the better rider. In fact, I believe he is the best rider out there if he is at top shape. Unfortunately, it seems like he is always affected by some injury or a crash.
In any case, I do not know how Rog feels right now and how much time does he want to spend with his family, but I believe he can be at an excellent level at the Tour if he puts his mind and effort to it.

If Rog starts the Tour I root for him, but I see no evidence suggesting at this point he is a better GT rider then vinge or pog?

 

[Rackham]

If Rog starts the Tour I root for him, but I see no evidence suggesting at this point he is a better GT rider then vinge or pog?

Vingegaard is a watts monster. I still don't think he's been in enough battles to fully judge his entire ability in GT's though. He needs to face some adversity & bad moments first. Other than the musical chairs bike swap moment on the cobbled stage last year, it's been a linear experience for him in the TdF 2021 & 2022 so far. No sh*t bad luck, no bad days, no split second tactical decisions. No real pressure either.

Wait & see. I do know he'd be in a much better position going into the TdF 2023 if Rog was going but tbh that seems highly unlikely at the moment (I was listening to Johan Bruyneel for example & he said "absolutely not" to the question regarding whether Rogla should go to the Tour in 5 weeks time or not).

I don't know what Jumbo will do next year though because Rog is definitely entitled to ask for dedicated support riders, like he had in the Giro. It's not just about Kuss, Bouwman for example saved him on at least two occasions. If he rides the Tour without support, he doesn't get the quick bike swap & he doesn't get the protection.