Teams & Riders Everybody needs a little bit of Roglstomp in their lives

[Blanco]

Do you guys remember when Roglic gifted the stage to Remco in Catalunya and Remco crowed about beating Roglic in the sprint?

Yeah, the boy really thought he was the faster one, hence that lead out on Xorret de Cati stage

 

[CyclistAbi]

Great performance today on stage 10. Lost 20s to Remco and finished third. I feel that this is rather minimal amount for an ITT with such profile. Now i guess a different Vuelta is to be raced. A lot of hard mountains ahead. Here i expect that by the end of week two internal team hierarchy to crystallize a bit and for the main GC contenders to be known. By the start of week three. Rogla likely won't attack Kuss so it's now up to Remco and other teams. Like UAE. To try to crack Kuss. Rogla for now needs to respond and to remain with the favourites. But if forced then to sprint at the end of the stages.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Not a victory, but great day showing some with short memories that he can time trial pretty well. https://x.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1699096847934009642?s=46&t=14N416zK93up_7bVPO60Ig

 

[Gregor_Slovenia]

It seems like he is having so much fun throughout the race. He accepts with a smile and a joke whatever happens. I am sure he will be as much happy as he would win himself even if Sepp wins. But he is in pole position now. Just follow young Belgian and attack him in last 300 meters if they finish up alone. No risk no glory, eh 🤪

 

[Luthor]

Roglic looks the strongest right now for Jumbo and Vinge/Kuss should be the ones rolling attacks first. Vinge seems to fade and Kuss looks better than him atm. I'm not convinced Vinge can really destroy everyone on Tourmalet, more likely he would be sacrificed.

 

[Blanco]

Roglic looks the strongest right now for Jumbo and Vinge/Kuss should be the ones rolling attacks first. Vinge seems to fade and Kuss looks better than him atm. I'm not convinced Vinge can really destroy everyone on Tourmalet, more likely he would be sacrificed.

Yep, Vinge will be used as a bait for Remco I think. If he follows, he risks a counter for Roglic, and if not he risks possible time gain for Vinge. Problem is though, what if Ayuso follows, will Roglic wait for Remco to close, or will close it himself.

 

[Luthor]

Yep, Vinge will be used as a bait for Remco I think. If he follows, he risks a counter for Roglic, and if not he risks possible time gain for Vinge. Problem is though, what if Ayuso follows, will Roglic wait for Remco to close, or will close it himself.

Kuss can also go to force Remco or if Ayuso collaborates with Vinge they would take the bait and let them ride for a while. A lot depends if Remco feels good or not. Roglic can go for the teleport if he feels good to put more pressure on Remco. My feeling is that on Tourmalet we're gonna see Jonas dom for Rog the way he did it in Dauphine last year. From tactical pov, Vuelta is by far the best GT this year.

 

[Berniece]

Kuss will close in that case or if Ayuso collaborates with Vinge they would take the bait and let them ride for a while. A lot depends if Remco feels good or not. Roglic can go for the teleport if he feels good to put more pressure on Remco. My feeling is that on Tourmalet we're gonna see Jonas dom for Rog the way he did it in Dauphine last year. From tactical pov, Vuelta is by far the best GT this year.

Why would Kuss close that gap? What if Kuss isn't able to close that gap? Vingegaard is still seen as a co-leader so I don't see why JV would close the gap on their own teammate with Evenepoel in the wheel.

 

[SHAD0W93]

I still can't wrap my brain around how this guy's brain work at times. I'd love to experience for a day.

Everything Roglic, that’s how it works.

 

[Luthor]

Why would Kuss close that gap? What if Kuss isn't able to close that gap? Vingegaard is still seen as a co-leader so I don't see why JV would close the gap on their own teammate with Evenepoel in the wheel.

Vinge is clearly the weakest of the 3 and his form seems to be on a downward trend. Getting 10s on Kuss while having a much better aero position is really bad. Jumbo can't bet on Vinge unless he recovers miraculously, it's more likely he will feel more fatigue, same for Kuss. Their Tour might be felt in 3rd week, same as happened with Roglic in 2020.

If Remco doesn't go after Vinge more attacks will follow trying to test him. First Kuss attacks and if he doesn't move, Rog will go eventually with a big attack.
Kuss would try to close the gap to Vinge so they can collab against the rest. Anyway Rog can just sit in Ayuso's wheel while Vinge is in front just as well. Jumbo's possibilties are limitless, as long as Rog is stronger than Remco.

 

[Berniece]

Vinge is clearly the weakest of the 3 and his form seems to be on a downward trend. Getting 10s on Kuss while having a much better aero position is really bad. Jumbo can't bet on Vinge unless he recovers miraculously, it's more likely he will feel more fatigue, same for Kuss. Their Tour might be felt in 3rd week, same as happened with Roglic in 2020.

If Remco doesn't go after Vinge more attacks will follow trying to test him. First Kuss attacks and if he doesn't move, Rog will go eventually with a big attack.
Kuss would try to close the gap to Vinge so they can collab against the rest. Anyway Rog can just sit in Ayuso's wheel while Vinge is in front just as well. Jumbo's possibilties are limitless, as long as Rog is stronger than Remco.

I agree with everything you said, I'm just wondering if Vingegaard also seems himself as fading and that he should ride for the others. I suspect this won't happen until he actually loses 1min or more on a climb

 

[bNator]

I don’t necessarily se TJV’s position as so rosy. There is is scenario where they get f**** pretty easily.

1. Say Vinge is worse than Remco and can’t produce a meaningful attack. That’s pretty likely.
2. Say Kuss is just good enough to follow Remco but not better than him. Also possible if not likely. In that case, he won’t attack but will hold on to his jersey. And in that case, Roglic probably won’t attack either because TJV would consider it too risky.

Then all that needs to happen is for Kuss to crack later in week 3 and Roglic not having enough time to overtake Remco…

 

[Rackham]

I don’t necessarily se TJV’s position as so rosy. There is is scenario where they get f**** pretty easily.

1. Say Vinge is worse than Remco and can’t produce a meaningful attack. That’s pretty likely.
2. Say Kuss is just good enough to follow Remco but not better than him. Also possible if not likely. In that case, he won’t attack but will hold on to his jersey. And in that case, Roglic probably won’t attack either because TJV would consider it too risky.

Then all that needs to happen is for Kuss to crack later in week 3 and Roglic not having enough time to overtake Remco…

I think it'll be much more straight-forward:

The strongest riders will push on the climbs (Ayuso & Mas in particular will be catalysts), with Evenepoel doing what he usually does: setting as hard a tempo as possible to either blow everyone off his wheel or limit attacks. Think back to Sierra Nevada last year.

I might be simplifying this but I reckon tactics are only one part of the story, i.e. legs will do most of the talking. Whomever is the strongest will likely win. That includes Evenepoel as well. I mean if he blows Rog, Kuss & Vinge off his wheel, he's going to win the Vuelta.

So from Rog's perspective, he just has to keep on doing what he's been doing over the past week: attack Evenepoel when he can & take time when he can. And I feel fairly confident he can do exactly that on quite a few of the stage profiles which remain.

 

[Luthor]

I don’t necessarily se TJV’s position as so rosy. There is is scenario where they get f**** pretty easily.

1. Say Vinge is worse than Remco and can’t produce a meaningful attack. That’s pretty likely.
2. Say Kuss is just good enough to follow Remco but not better than him. Also possible if not likely. In that case, he won’t attack but will hold on to his jersey. And in that case, Roglic probably won’t attack either because TJV would consider it too risky.

Then all that needs to happen is for Kuss to crack later in week 3 and Roglic not having enough time to overtake Remco…

The only way Kuss wins Vuelta is if Rog/Vinge are in 2nd place otherwise TJV won't risk it on him. Having all GTs in the same year has never been done before. Stage 20 is treacherous af, Kuss could be destroyed in such scenario. Kuss is not gonna be used defensively, that's not in TJV's advantage. He is gonna attack Remco and force him to drive Rog&Vinge. I believe in GC Kuss but you can't afford to bet on him when you have Rog in this form. Until TJV don't have a good gap against the rest, they won't rest. It would be naive with 3 leaders to bet on Kuss holding Remco with just 1 minute.

 

[bNator]

The only way Kuss wins Vuelta is if Rog/Vinge are in 2nd place otherwise TJV won't risk it on him. Having all GTs in the same year has never been done before. Stage 20 is treacherous af, Kuss could be destroyed in such scenario. Kuss is not gonna be used defensively, that's not in TJV's advantage. He is gonna attack Remco and force him to drive Rog&Vinge. I believe in GC Kuss but you can't afford to bet on him when you have Rog in this form. Until TJV don't have a good gap against the rest, they won't rest. It would be naive with 3 leaders to bet on Kuss holding Remco with just 1 minute.

But what happens if he attacks, everyone can follow, then he eventually blows because of that and Rog/Vinge can’t finish the job? Then all you did is now you’ve lost Kuss…

Either way it’s a risk for TJV. Even though it looks like they’ve got ton of options, I think it’s actually just two - bet on Kuss (defend his jersey) or bet on Roglic (attack because you don’t think jersey can be defended with enough certainty). But either way, they may face opportunity cost…

 

[cen]

Jumbo has a masterclass experience from Itzulia 2021 how not to bet on the wrong horse for the GC so I doubt they'll walk into a Sepp GC Kuss trap when push comes to shove.

 

[Luthor]

But what happens if he attacks, everyone can follow, then he eventually blows because of that and Rog/Vinge can’t finish the job? Then all you did is now you’ve lost Kuss…

Either way it’s a risk for TJV. Even though it looks like they’ve got ton of options, I think it’s actually just two - bet on Kuss (defend his jersey) or bet on Roglic (attack because you don’t think jersey can be defended with enough certainty). But either way, they may face opportunity cost…

You have to sacrifice someone to win, it would be terrible for Jumbo to get 2,3,4 with three riders but lose the overall. Vinge looks the worst and I think he will be the first one sacrificed. He has to recover a lot of time. Kuss attacks to force the others to chase.
Of course you need Rog to be better than Remco but think about Tour 2022, you also need to have someone who can finish it. Roglic's attacks would've been in vain if Vinge wasn't strong enough on Granon.

 

[Blanco]

But what happens if he attacks, everyone can follow, then he eventually blows because of that and Rog/Vinge can’t finish the job? Then all you did is now you’ve lost Kuss…

Either way it’s a risk for TJV. Even though it looks like they’ve got ton of options, I think it’s actually just two - bet on Kuss (defend his jersey) or bet on Roglic (attack because you don’t think jersey can be defended with enough certainty). But either way, they may face opportunity cost…

First one who should attack is Vingegaard, cause he's the worst in GC, and his form doesn't look stratospheric, so they could sort of afford to sacrifice him, and on the other hand if the attack succeeds he could go all the way.
Kuss should be second option, and Roglic last one, because he's likely the strongest of the three.

 

[bNator]

@Luthor and @Blanco:

What if Remco is able to bring back Vingegaard but Roglič and Kuss can't follow Remco? Then they're in a terrible situation that they brought upon temselves. But yeah, if that was the case, Remco is probably winning sooner or later so considering all the probabilities it's still a natural move I guess...

 

[Luthor]

@Luthor and @Blanco:

What if Remco is able to bring back Vingegaard but Roglič and Kuss can't follow Remco? Then they're in a terrible situation that they brought upon temselves. But yeah, if that was the case, Remco is probably winning sooner or later so considering all the probabilities it's still a natural move I guess...

Vingegaard stops pacing and Remco will do all the work. Remco will be tempted to stop pacing to not carry Vinge. Vingegaard will have to attack again if he wants to gain time. He either drops Remco or follows him. Meanwhile the weakest between Kuss and Rog sacrifices for the other to limit the losses. Normally that's Kuss barring any crashes for Rog.

 

[Oldermanish]

I don’t necessarily se TJV’s position as so rosy. There is is scenario where they get f**** pretty easily.

1. Say Vinge is worse than Remco and can’t produce a meaningful attack. That’s pretty likely.
2. Say Kuss is just good enough to follow Remco but not better than him. Also possible if not likely. In that case, he won’t attack but will hold on to his jersey. And in that case, Roglic probably won’t attack either because TJV would consider it too risky.

Then all that needs to happen is for Kuss to crack later in week 3 and Roglic not having enough time to overtake Remco…

And they could all ride into a ravine on the Angrilu.....

 

[Bolder]

But what happens if he attacks, everyone can follow, then he eventually blows because of that and Rog/Vinge can’t finish the job? Then all you did is now you’ve lost Kuss…

Either way it’s a risk for TJV. Even though it looks like they’ve got ton of options, I think it’s actually just two - bet on Kuss (defend his jersey) or bet on Roglic (attack because you don’t think jersey can be defended with enough certainty). But either way, they may face opportunity cost.

With so many strong riders still in contention, there's going to be some hard choices for both Jumbo and UAE. In many ways Remco is in a great position.

 

[SHAD0W93]

I thought a stomp was imminent from Roglic but the team and he can be happy keeping their powder dry. If he is the strongest throughout I hope he doesn’t lose the race due to the team trying to support Kuss.

 

[HelloDolly]

Reading some of the posts above sounds like JV need to be scared of Remco and what he will do, how he will both follow all 3 JV riders and also attack

Come on JV have the upper hand ...not only are they riding for the Vuelta ...they are riding for the full podium,
They need to crack Remco once and that is very possible

Remco will follow Roglic
He cannot follow Vingegaard with Kuss and Roglic on his tail
Vingegaard will attack on the Tourmalet

Soler will attack also ....but do JV let him go ?

Mas, Ayuso and Landa will bide their time and wait ...the Spanish trio will hope to take advantage of the JV fallout

 

[bill1109]

Reading some of the posts above sounds like JV need to be scared of Remco and what he will do, how he will both follow all 3 JV riders and also attack

Come on JV have the upper hand ...not only are they riding for the Vuelta ...they are riding for the full podium,
They need to crack Remco once and that is very possible

Remco will follow Roglic
He cannot follow Vingegaard with Kuss and Roglic on his tail
Vingegaard will attack on the Tourmalet

Soler will attack also ....but do JV let him go ?

Mas, Ayuso and Landa will bide their time and wait ...the Spanish trio will hope to take advantage of the JV fallout

in the high mountains remco is done. jv knows it. only a matter of time. 3 jv top riders in the proper placements to apply the right kind of pressure. remco didn't gain as much time in the time trial as expected...that is the first crack....more will be coming. i dont care who wins from jv..love to see kuss...he has helped all jv leaders...but if not, anyone but remco.