Teams & Riders Everybody needs a little bit of Roglstomp in their lives

[Rackham]

I don't get the concern (from anyone for that matter) at all.

In fact I suggest Rogla fans sit back & enjoy the show, i.e. he's got some serious form here (season peak IMO, way more so than the Giro, which isn't surprising because September has often been his best month), he's got the team (even Kelderman looks like he's back!) & he's got a rival who inspires him to surpass himself (the one & only Evenepoel, i.e. Rogla's best nemesis over the past two seasons).

What's not to love? It'll be great. I can't wait for the Tourmalet tbh.

 

[Keldergoat]

With so many strong riders still in contention, there's going to be some hard choices for both Jumbo and UAE. In many ways Remco is in a great position.

That's one way of putting it, but I reckon it has some bias towards Evenepoel chances that I truly don't see. Fact is that, although I think SQS has been doing terrific so far, the terrain to truly play the numbers game for Jumbo and to isolate Evenepoel in an early phase has yet to come. Jumbo has learned from their Tour 2020 trauma (by just going 'full Sky' with a steady train until the last KM that benefitted .Pogacar) Ever since, they show in each and every GT that they dare to go all out on a nifty tactical plan, sacrifice top riders in order to break the race. That is, with 3 TJV riders that are among the best 7 climbers in the peloton, not a 'great position'. I still think Evenepoel can win this Vuelta, but he has to be at his absolute best.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Remco is ahead of his main rivals, so it’s hard to see Roglic as being in a better position. Remco just needs to TT up these big climbs to 1) Test Kuss and 2) Head off attacks. Kuss is in the best position if his legs hold. Just needs to avoid a collapse.

 

[Keldergoat]

That's quite a one dimensional way of viewing who's in a better position, but okay, fair point. I think he hoped for gaining quite a bit more seconds in the TT and not being sandwiched by two TJV contenders in the GC.

 

[Blanco]

Remco is ahead of his main rivals, so it’s hard to see Roglic as being in a better position. Remco just needs to TT up these big climbs to 1) Test Kuss and 2) Head off attacks. Kuss is in the best position if his legs hold. Just needs to avoid a collapse.

Yeah, and Soler is in the 2nd best position...

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

That's quite a one dimensional way of viewing who's in a better position, but okay, fair point. I think he hoped for gaining quite a bit more seconds in the TT and not being sandwiched by two TJV contenders in the GC.

Roglic has dropped Remco a couple of times and Remco has dropped Roglic a couple of times. There have always been explanations for each. So I’m not sure there’s clear evidence that Roglic is a better climber than Remco. He needs to find 30 seconds. Roglic has the team, but also complexity with Kuss. I would say none of them are in a bad position. Personally, I’d rather have the lead and just need to follow, but Kuss muddies it up.

 

[Keldergoat]

Roglic has dropped Remco a couple of times and Remco has dropped Roglic a couple of times. There have always been explanations for each. So I’m not sure there’s clear evidence that Roglic is a better climber than Remco. He needs to find 30 seconds. Roglic has the team, but also complexity with Kuss. I would say none of them are in a bad position. Personally, I’d rather have the lead and just need to follow, but Kuss muddies it up.

Agree to a large degree. But that analysis downplays the 'team' factor (I don't see the complexity of the Kuss factor that much since I think the three TJV protagonists are devoid of too much ego and in fighting). The stages on Friday and Saturday with several very hard climbs prior to the final climb (Larrau and Spandelles are beasts) are a completely different cookie than the previous mountain stages. Risk of isolation for Evenepoel is a real one in those stages, especially since Jumbo has shown that it dares to go all out early (see Pyrenees this year, Granon stage last year).

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Yeah, and Soler is in the 2nd best position...

That’s not my argument. For folks distilling to Remco vs Roglic I think I’d rather be in Remco’s position. Diesel climber who has some explosion and just needs to follow Roglic to not lose 30 seconds. If you are comparing TJV to Remco, then of course it is advantage TJV, but I’d say that, given TJV wins, the odds of each rider in that group winning are like 50 % Roglic / 30% Kuss / 20% Vingegaard. They each have different paths to victory.

 

[saunaking]

what happens if Remco drops Sepp with 3 or 4 or 5k to go on Tourmalet?
Does Rog drop back to help or sit on the wheel of Remco.
Assuming its just Sepp dropping, losing maybe 20s to maybe 1min
Does Sepp get left for dead by his team?
Or does Jonas try and help him (if he can) while Rog does his wheelsuck thing?

 

[Nick2413]

what happens if Remco drops Sepp with 3 or 4 or 5k to go on Tourmalet?
Does Rog drop back to help or sit on the wheel of Remco.
Assuming its just Sepp dropping, losing maybe 20s to maybe 1min
Does Sepp get left for dead by his team?
Or does Jonas try and help him (if he can) while Rog does his wheelsuck thing?

There’s so many high level climbers that a dropped rider will likely have company, but I think they’d still let Roglic ride and vice versa at least for now.

 

[CyclistAbi]

There is stage 20, that should suit Remco more then Sepp. Still i feel that it is now on Remco (and UAE), to try to crack Kuss. On how Rogla and Jonas will race. This will be interesting to see. Jonas can still win this race in a single stage. So anything but responding to his attack(s). That would be silly. Rogla can i guess afford to follow Remco (and UAE). And take some time here and there. Or JV can prepare the terrain for Rogla to take some serious time. Maybe with Jonas helping out. We'll see.

 

[Berniece]

what happens if Remco drops Sepp with 3 or 4 or 5k to go on Tourmalet?
Does Rog drop back to help or sit on the wheel of Remco.
Assuming its just Sepp dropping, losing maybe 20s to maybe 1min
Does Sepp get left for dead by his team?
Or does Jonas try and help him (if he can) while Rog does his wheelsuck thing?

Sepp will get left for dead assuming Kelderman isn't there anymore.

 

[tobydawq]

There’s so many high level climbers that a dropped rider will likely have company, but I think they’d still let Roglic ride and vice versa at least for now.

I don't know. When Roglic had crashed and was chasing in Paris-Nice, even Nacer Bouhanni chose to help him for no reason other than the goodness of his heart.

 

[dennisdy]

That’s not my argument. For folks distilling to Remco vs Roglic I think I’d rather be in Remco’s position. Diesel climber who has some explosion and just needs to follow Roglic to not lose 30 seconds. If you are comparing TJV to Remco, then of course it is advantage TJV, but I’d say that, given TJV wins, the odds of each rider in that group winning are like 50 % Roglic / 30% Kuss / 20% Vingegaard. They each have different paths to victory.

I would much rather be in Roglic's position. He has already beaten Remco in a stage race and has gone on to win his other stage races. He has much more experience with difficult mountain stages and teammates who will be there to help him.

 

[Rackham]

That’s not my argument. For folks distilling to Remco vs Roglic I think I’d rather be in Remco’s position. Diesel climber who has some explosion and just needs to follow Roglic to not lose 30 seconds. If you are comparing TJV to Remco, then of course it is advantage TJV, but I’d say that, given TJV wins, the odds of each rider in that group winning are like 50 % Roglic / 30% Kuss / 20% Vingegaard. They each have different paths to victory.

Anything can happen & form can fluctuate (clichés but true), but IMO Roglič is a better climber than Evenepoel. That's the elephant in the room here & it's something which goes beyond team strength & other assessments of their respective GC situation.

It means when Rog has his best legs (which I have reason to believe he does), he has quite a few possibilities to drop Evenepoel. And Evenepoel hasn't fully dropped Rog in a mountain stage in over a year (since week 1 of last year's Vuelta). But the reverse (Rog dropping Evenepoel) has happened quite recently.

Ergo I think Rog is in a very handy GC situation, especially with Kuss in red (which forces Evenepoel & the others to attack).

 

[pablohidalgo7]

Roglic in top shape and without any injury or effects of a crash dropping? Imposible for Remco or any living being, only the force of nature like rain has done it sometimes.

 

[svit]

I found it funny that Kuss is suddenly the main JV guy to win this year's Vuelta. Yes, he is currently in red, but I still believe he's a super domestic for Vingegard and Roglic. He is just a distraction for all other teams and they know it.

If Kuss gets dropped by Remco, Roglic or Vingegaard will not wait for him. The team hierarchy is evident to me now, especially after TT. The main guy is Roglic, Vingegaard will be used as bait and Kuss will try to stay with Remco as long as he can.

Remco should and I think will try to mark only Roglic right now.

 

[Volderke]

Roglic is a formidable climber: Even in that 2020 Tour, he was better than Pogacar on Col de la Loze, don't forget that.
So while Roglic often wins from (steep) mountain top finish sprints, he has the pedigree to be among the best on any (big) climb.
Remco has always been more vulnerable on big mountain stages, but at the other hand, there was always a mishap / crash involved, and we have to see if a healthy Remco in good form (he says he is) can withstand a top Roglic in the high mountains.
To say that one is in a better place than the other, with the hardest stage of the GT coming next Friday, is a bit premature. All tactics could go out of the window if either Kuss, Remco or Roglic loses time.

 

[Divergence]

During stage 6 I wrote that it was a very stupid tactics from TJV. In retrospect, it was even stupider. Yes, they have a 3rd rider who can win, but it complicated things for them. Kuss now considers himself a potential winner which reduces the number of helpers, plus TJV's tactics is geared towards preserving Kuss' lead. If the next few stages do not crystalize the GS and it comes to stage 20, there is a real possibility of them losing the Vuelta.
The alternative scenario would have been for them to ride for Rog (who seems to be by far the best rider at the race) and by now he would have had about 1min on Remco and the lot and during the next few stages Rog could have gained some more time thus more or less wrapping up the Vuelta before stage 20.

 

[tobydawq]

I found it funny that Kuss is suddenly the main JV guy to win this year's Vuelta. Yes, he is currently in red, but I still believe he's a super domestic for Vingegard and Roglic. He is just a distraction for all other teams and they know it.

If Kuss gets dropped by Remco, Roglic or Vingegaard will not wait for him. The team hierarchy is evident to me now, especially after TT. The main guy is Roglic, Vingegaard will be used as bait and Kuss will try to stay with Remco as long as he can.

Remco should and I think will try to mark only Roglic right now.

True, but Kuss will not wait for Vingegaard or Roglic either, if they were to be dropped.

 

[tobydawq]

During stage 6 I wrote that it was a very stupid tactics from TJV. In retrospect, it was even stupider. Yes, they have a 3rd rider who can win, but it complicated things for them. Kuss now considers himself a potential winner which reduces the number of helpers, plus TJV's tactics is geared towards preserving Kuss' lead. If the next few stages do not crystalize the GS and it comes to stage 20, there is a real possibility of them losing the Vuelta.
The alternative scenario would have been for them to ride for Rog (who seems to be by far the best rider at the race) and by now he would have had about 1min on Remco and the lot and during the next few stages Rog could have gained some more time thus more or less wrapping up the Vuelta before stage 20.

How exactly would Roglic have one minute on Remco now if they had ridden differently?

 

[Divergence]

How exactly would Roglic have one minute on Remco now if they had ridden differently?

30s TTT plus going for wins and bonifications

 

[tobydawq]

30s TTT plus going for wins and bonifications

The TTT hardly has anything to do with their stage 6 tactics. They certainly would not have waited for Kuss there but I think you have to be very pro-Roglic to not see the reason why they waited for Vingegaard.

 

[Divergence]

The TTT hardly has anything to do with their stage 6 tactics. They certainly would not have waited for Kuss there but I think you have to be very pro-Roglic to not see the reason why they waited for Vingegaard.

I understand why they waited. But it complicated their situation and that is what I am trying to say. I am arguing the best course of action for TJV would have been go all in for Rog.

 

[tobydawq]

I understand why they waited. But it complicated their situation and that is what I am trying to say. I am arguing the best course of action for TJV would have been go all in for Rog.

Yes, and that is very easy to say now.

I do agree that stage 6 was a weird one. I guess they wanted to wear Soudal out but maybe it was a little too efficient.