Teams & Riders Everybody needs a little bit of Roglstomp in their lives

[Sciatic]

They don't have Kuss now to set up the really strong pace in the end, as they need to protect him.

Kuss typically wouldn’t be setting the pace until part way up the final climb, so “making the race hard” prior to Tourmalet is left to the rest of the dons, just as they did in the Tour (although with no Van Aert this time).

 

[Krzysztof_O]

So Primoz only 23 seconds behind Remco now. The real race starts tomorrow!

 

[Sciatic]

Yes, it is very likely that there will be comments like "if only Rog did not attack after Kuss was dropped he would have stayed in red".
I believe Rog would have no problem with Kuss winning the whole thing but unless Kuss is extremely strong I believe there will be a moment when Rod will sense he needs to attack or he will be told to attack and, him being the best, he will make up the time gap and take red. Then the comments will probably start.

If you you mean folks on this forum rooting for Kuss commenting when he is dropped, I think the vast majority understand how bike racing and team priorities work.
If you mean folks commenting on the broader internet—such as the casual cycling fan in the US now excited about GC-Kuss, what does it matter what they say? Their “voice” has no real impact or influence in elite pro cycling.

 

[Sciatic]

Vinge needs to get some time on Tourmalet, it's the high mountains he waited for. If he can't break everyone, he isn't winning. Spandelles attack is really risky unless they have Valter/Kelderman in the break.

For Remco to be broken Jumbo has to gamble and attack early. If they're waiting for Tourmalet then I don't believe Vinge can take enough time on the others. Ayuso might also want to go early. The wind is gonna be very important on Spandellles/Tourmalet. If there is headwind nobody is gonna risk given the next stage.

Jumbo doesn’t need to “break” Remco to win. Unless they soft-pedal the 1st 2 climbs, which I can’t imagine Jumbo or UAE allowing to happen, a small gap on Tourmalet can expand to 30’ at the end of a 3-HC climb day.

 

[Rackham]

So a recap of the day: gained 4 seconds, had a near miss when an Alpecin rider chopped him after the intermediate sprint.. & endured some stupid post-stage questions from the press (something about "are you wasting energy sprinting like that blablabla").

I can't wait for tomorrow.

 

[SHAD0W93]

So a recap of the day: gained 4 seconds, had a near miss when an Alpecin rider chopped him after the intermediate sprint.. & endured some stupid post-stage questions from the press (something about "are you wasting energy sprinting like that blablabla").

I can't wait for tomorrow.

While on a different note I do find it funny Jumbo says Pogacar wastes energy going for bonus seconds but Roglic is fine (and shown before in the Vuelta it’s fine). Which is probably why Roglic got asked that question based on Jumvo’s past.

 

[Nick2413]

I assume you mean Sat’s stage re: “only 10 Km of climbing” since Tourmalet is close to 20km?

Yes stage 14. If people are expecting more action on that than 13 it would require GC riders being dropped halfway into the stage it seems, as well as strong team support, given the final climb isn’t overly difficult. But maybe I’m wrong and the attrition will be enough to create big gaps.

 

[acm]

So a recap of the day: gained 4 seconds, had a near miss when an Alpecin rider chopped him after the intermediate sprint.. & endured some stupid post-stage questions from the press (something about "are you wasting energy sprinting like that blablabla").

I can't wait for tomorrow.

"I don't really care."

 

[IndurainsTdF1994]

You still

While on a different note I do find it funny Jumbo says Pogacar wastes energy going for bonus seconds but Roglic is fine (and shown before in the Vuelta it’s fine). Which is probably why Roglic got asked that question based on Jumvo’s past.

To be fair, Pogacar going for bonus seconds didn't help him at all in the GTs, not even close (even in the ones he won), while Roglic did win one Vuelta primarily due to bonis (vs Carapaz).

 

[JosefK]

It seemed like a not-too-difficult 4-second time-bonus nab by Rog. Good value for the extra 10 seconds of effort.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

It seemed like a not-too-difficult 4-second time-bonus nab by Rog. Good value for the extra 10 seconds of effort.

Very efficient way of gaining time. I mean, try gaining 4 minutes on a 10-minute climb!

 

[Rackham]

Everyone expects big time gaps in the mountains but there's also a scenario where this one plays out like the recent Giro, the Vuelta 2020 or even Catalunya in March.

I mean if Rog loses this Vuelta for a few seconds, then everyone would be saying he should have gone for the bonus seconds. The only thing which seems different this year is the actual amount of seconds these intermediate sprints give, i.e. 6 seconds for the winner seems way higher than usual (try gaining six seconds separation on a cat 1 climb, i.e. it's hard!).

 

[SHAD0W93]

For the record I don’t have any problem with any rider gaining bonus seconds, I just think it’s funny from Jumbo’s perspective on Pog.

 

[dennisdy]

I found it funny that Kuss is suddenly the main JV guy to win this year's Vuelta. Yes, he is currently in red, but I still believe he's a super domestic for Vingegard and Roglic. He is just a distraction for all other teams and they know it.

If Kuss gets dropped by Remco, Roglic or Vingegaard will not wait for him. The team hierarchy is evident to me now, especially after TT. The main guy is Roglic, Vingegaard will be used as bait and Kuss will try to stay with Remco as long as he can.

Remco should and I think will try to mark only Roglic right now.

I completely agree with your pecking order: Roglic, Vingegaard, then Kuss. However, Remco does have to worry a bit about Kuss. If JV sends him up the road early, Remco will at least have that at the back of his mind.

 

[dennisdy]

How do you anticipate that stage plays out? There’s only 10k of climbing in the last 50k so whoever lands the killer blow will maybe not want to drop everyone until the final shorter climb.

"The final shorter climb" is the Tourmalet! It's 18.8k and the second toughest climb in the Vuelta!

 

[Red Rick]

Vingegaard has to show something before he gets priority over Kuss at this point, though his luck is probably that the best way to use him is offensively anyway.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Considering ITT went well i feel that a strategy as seen today on stage 12, gaining some smallish amounts of time here and there, that should work fine for week two. Tomorrow hence a stage win after some mano-a-mano action would be rather ideal outcome for Rogla. As it's up to QOS and UAE to attack Kuss. Not JV.

 

[Gratemans]

Vingegaard has to show something before he gets priority over Kuss at this point, though his luck is probably that the best way to use him is offensively anyway.

I agree, tomorrow is about a lot of people, but definitely not about Vingegaard. I'm still convinced that this has always been Jumbo's plan: bring in Vingegaard last-minute'ish to make everybody think "wth?!" and get them kinda spooked. But they actually just brought him to support Roglic, find out how he handles the Tour/Vuelta combo (main goal I think), and let him give it a shot if something happens to Primoz.

Kuss? I think everybody at Jumbo was surprised at what he's doing now. Including Sepp. A very, very two-edged sword situation if ever I saw one.
IMO, if they try to protect his jersey tomorrow that'd be a fatal mistake. And if ever there was a guy I would grant the win to, it's Sepp. I just don't think he'll be able to make it another week though. Here's the double-edged sword thing: they're gonna have to make their choice before tomorrow's stage. Because what if Kuss is the one that goes on the attack? It'll all be down to Remco (if UAE is smart enough) and it would grant a huge opportunity to either Kuss or Roglic.
If they just sit with the pack and defend any attack on Sepp, they could end up really shooting themselves in the foot.
I don't expect the latter to happen though.

Of course, letting Vingegaard attack would also be a viable option, but would the competition really go all-out to chase him down? He doesn't look that strong to me.

 

[Sciatic]

"The final shorter climb" is the Tourmalet! It's 18.8k and the second toughest climb in the Vuelta!

He was referring to the following stage, not tomorrow (I was confused at 1st too).

 

[SHAD0W93]

Ayuso to win the stage 10 seconds ahead of Roglic, Evenepoel, and Almeida (pick whatever order you like). Kuss, Vinge, Vlasov, and Soler about a minute behind.

 

[Gratemans]

Ayuso to win the stage 10 seconds ahead of Roglic, Evenepoel, and Almeida (pick whatever order you like). Kuss, Vinge, Vlasov, and Soler about a minute behind.

I can get down with this. I expect Vlasov to be in that first group as well though.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

For anyone who cares, MF Naichaca running on about how if Vingegaard is in 2022 Dauphine shape or 98% of Tour shape m, he will clean everyone’s clock. Argued that Vingegaard hasn’t been dropped uphill, while conveniently ignoring that Roglic:Vingegard in this Vuelta :: Vingegaard:Roglic in that Dauphine. If Vinge could have dropped Roglic on that one big climb, Roglic, who won that Dauphine, could have dropped Vingegaard on stage 6. I guess we’ll see tomorrow.

 

[Nick2413]

For anyone who cares, MF Naichaca running on about how if Vingegaard is in 2022 Dauphine shape or 98% of Tour shape m, he will clean everyone’s clock. Argued that Vingegaard hasn’t been dropped uphill, while conveniently ignoring that Roglic:Vingegard in this Vuelta :: Vingegaard:Roglic in that Dauphine. If Vinge could have dropped Roglic on that one big climb, Roglic, who won that Dauphine, could have dropped Vingegaard on stage 6. I guess we’ll see tomorrow.

Vingegaard would win this race by minutes at 98% of Tour shape and was better than Roglic in that Dauphine, but he is a step below currently and will need to catch fire to beat him here

 

[dennisdy]

Of course, letting Vingegaard attack would also be a viable option, but would the competition really go all-out to chase him down? He doesn't look that strong to me.

I think that they would have to chase him down. There is always the possibility (however unlikely it might seem) that Jonas has been tricking his competitors into thinking that he is weak.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Vingegaard would win this race by minutes at 98% of Tour shape and was better than Roglic in that Dauphine, but he is a step below currently and will need to catch fire to beat him here

My point is that he assumes Vingegaard was stronger than Roglic in that Dauphine based on looks but does not apply the same logic to Roglix, who has appeared stronger in this Vuelta.