With Vingegaard, I think the main issue for Rog is a tactical one, i.e. I can imagine there could be team orders regarding which one of the 3 leaders attacks when & where, like Rog was the one who initiated the Granon offensive because he was way down in GC, so here it could be Vingegaard (if Jumbo attempts the same grand manoeuvres).
And if Evenepoel doesn't bite the bait (I read in the press how his team wants to avoid a Pogačar TdF 2022 situation)... then Rog is left sitting on Evenepoel's wheel whilst Vingegaard sails into the distance & collects the Vuelta.
But I mean we could sit here all day & theorize scenarios. Anything can happen.