Teams & Riders Everybody needs a little bit of Roglstomp in their lives

[Red Rick]

The obvious reason to not race Fleche is timing. He's been scheduled to race Fleche and Liege every season he's focused the Tour IIRC.

There's some individual differences and preferences when GC riders like to come down from altitude and taper, but Roglic really seems to prefer not to race a week before a GT judging by the fact he hasn't raced the nationals in a non COVID TdF year since 2017. The exceptions are racing Romandie in 2019, which I think most of us say was a mistake, and Burgos in 2023.

 

[Netserk]

Moving this discussion over to the proper thread, we've polluted the Nys one enough now.

It just isn't really comparable. For Roglic, Flèche is the easiest classic to win of the entire spring. For Pogacar, it is like the tenth-easiest. Also, Pogacar did Strade, Sanremo and Liège that year, that's three times as many spring classics as Roglic has raced in four years. Finally, Pogacar had already ticked Flèche off his list whereas Roglic hasn't. So Pogacar had more than his fair share of good reasons to skip Flèche last year, whereas I don't think Roglic did either in 2023 or now.

Pogi only needed to race in Belgium four days earlier to win Flèche (which is easier for him to win than it is to win for Rogla), Rogla is probably still at altitude by the time Liège kicks off. It's a bigger sacrifice for less and it pales in importance to the Giro which it would compromise.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Pogi only needed to race in Belgium four days earlier to win Flèche (which is easier for him to win than it is to win for Rogla), Rogla is probably still at altitude by the time Liège kicks off. It's a bigger sacrifice for less and it pales in importance to the Giro which it would compromise.

This is a very silly line of reasoning. It would have been less of a sacrifice (to use your words) for Pogacar to include Flèche *because he had already made the sacrifice of going to Liège*. So the whole 'bigger sacrifice' idea is nonsensical, because it would have been just as easy for Roglic to do the full Ardennes this year as it would have been for Pogacar in 2024 and it's ridiculous to penalise Pogacar for being the only one of the two to do Liège. Heck, it would actually have been marginally easier for Roglic, because there's one day less between both races this year and so the amount of days at altitude you're sacrificing also drops by one. Finally, the combination Tour of the Alps - Liège has been somewhat common over the years (e.g. Nibali 2019 or Vlasov 2023), so I don't see how Flèche - Liège would be a bigger ask.

Having said that, it would have been a lot easier for Roglic to go to the Ardennes if he was doing the Vuelta (and therefore skipping one of Giro/Tour), so I blame Bora too.

I also disagree with the idea that it's easier for Pogacar to win Flèche assuming equal circumstances, but that's a separate discussion.

 

[Netserk]

This is a very silly line of reasoning.

It's called thinking on the margin. I'm not penalising Pogi in any way, it's not a burden for him that riding Flèche last year would be less of a sacrifice than riding Flèche would be this year for Rogla.

But now you want him to ride both Ardennes classics before the Giro-Tour double as the first rider in 13 years?

 

[CyclistAbi]

Flèche is interesting race for Rogla, based on some/most characteristics, at least one win should already be in the bag. Julian for sure stole one from the bag. It's like Pogi and Milano-Sanremo, there isn't anything specific preventing it and yet for some reason a plethora of unsuccessful attempts are at play. Who knows, maybe the eagle to descend for La Fleche this year, legs itchy. Still one needs to understand that stakes are high and the plan is to win both Giro and the Tour. So some sacrifices for sure must be made for being able to achieve that. IMHO it will be easier, once the Tour title is in the bag, to participate in such races. Like for example if Pogi and Moho won't win PR, obviously Rogla is next in line for that. Swiss ... You name it.

 

[SHAD0W93]

It's like Pogi and Milano-Sanremo, there isn't anything specific preventing it and yet for some reason a plethora of unsuccessful attempts are at play.

MVDP, that’s the specific reason preventing Pog winning MSR.

 

[CyclistAbi]

MVDP, that’s the specific reason preventing Pog winning MSR.

He is a great opponent but then again he won it twice whilst Pogi raced it five times. Eventually it will click, like with Rogla on where it comes to Flèche and the Tour.

 

[Luthor]

As much as I want Rog winning Fleche the truth is it ain't gonna change anything for his legacy. Nowadays it's all about monuments and GTs that people care about. This Giro is probably his last big chance to get a GT without any of the other top3 GC riders. For Rog it's all or nothing about this Giro, he can't afford to mess up his preparation. The Giro route is very backloaded, he needs to be fresh in the third week.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Primoz Roglic on Instagram: "Syuk foto is back😍 And so are we💪 hello El Teide🫡🗻 @tratnikj @redbullborahansgrohe #cyclinglife #cyclisme #cycling #tenerife #trainingcamp #redbullborahansgrohe"

18K likes, 61 comments - primozroglic on April 13, 2025: "Syuk foto is back😍 And so are we💪 hello El Teide🫡🗻 @tratnikj @redbullborahansgrohe #cyclinglife #cyclisme #cycling #tenerife #trainingcamp #redbullborahansgrohe".

www.instagram.com

24 days till La Grande Partenza!

 

[Red Rick]

 

[Oldman]

As much as I want Rog winning Fleche the truth is it ain't gonna change anything for his legacy. Nowadays it's all about monuments and GTs that people care about. This Giro is probably his last big chance to get a GT without any of the other top3 GC riders. For Rog it's all or nothing about this Giro, he can't afford to mess up his preparation. The Giro route is very backloaded, he needs to be fresh in the third week.

He is also another year older and doesn't need any crashes or pointless illness. I'd think he'd take the safest route to those GTs while maintaining a racing edge.

 

[Luthor]

He is also another year older and doesn't need any crashes or pointless illness. I'd think he'd take the safest route to those GTs while maintaining a racing edge.

True, also staying at altitude without any pause. Pog is also doing Fleche and these days I rate his sprint better. Roglic's kick is still good but not what it used to be. His stomps were inevitable but now he seems to become a bit more diesel. His attacks like the one in Volta look a lot like Remco's, doing high pace over an extended period of time.

 

[Oldman]

True, also staying at altitude without any pause. Pog is also doing Fleche and these days I rate his sprint better. Roglic's kick is still good but not what it used to be. His stomps were inevitable but now he seems to become a bit more diesel. His attacks like the one in Volta look a lot like Remco's, doing high pace over an extended period of time.

What matters is week 3 of both GTs.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Just looked at the Giro route again and there are very few significant mountain stages… horrible but good for Roglič

 

[Cycling111]

Just looked at the Giro route again and there are very few significant mountain stages… horrible but good for Roglič

Ayuso's worst days in GT have been in the high mountains. I don't think Roglic would be disadvantaged by more mountain stages compared to someone like Ayuso, who has never won a GT and his worst days have been on hard stages.

 

[Luthor]

Just looked at the Giro route again and there are very few significant mountain stages… horrible but good for Roglič

3rd week is absolutely brutal, but the final climbs are kinda tame. Bora needs to be good on strategy and send some folks in the breakaway in those stages, basically what they did with Kamna/Hindley back in the day. Roglic having someone drafting him on Sestriere/Champoluc could be decisive.

It would've been great if Pelizzari was chosen for the team. UAE has an insane team in terms of value but not sure how much Yates/Vine are gonna go for Ayuso or viceversa.

 

[pablohidalgo7]

Just looked at the Giro route again and there are very few significant mountain stages… horrible but good for Roglič

For Roglic, the opposite would be ideal: lots of mountain stages, tough but not incredibly tough, spread out over the three weeks, and if possible with the steepest climb in terms of gradient at the end, Vuelta-style.
On this course, if he wants to finish the Giro before the final tappones, he'll have to step out of his comfort zone a bit and try it in the mid-mountain and hilly stages or take advantage of the stages that end in downhill. He can do all of that with the necessary motivation, but he'd definitely prefer a couple of Moncalvillos or Ancares stages where he could reach 7 w/kg and give eveybody a run for his money.
In any case, he's still the favorite on this course against these rivals.

 

[Rackham]

It also totally depends on whether the stages even go ahead as they're currently planned.

This is the Giro. Things change, like the weather... or the peloton itself decides to go on strike for xyz reason. I think Rog and Red Bull simply need to be prepared to strike out and score when there's an opportunity and not stress about the ideal path to victory.

I also think Ayuso might prove to be stronger in the ITT's as well, so there's that to take into consideration.

 

[CyclistAbi]

It's never easy to win a GT. As for Giro 2025 i feel that it should suit Rogla. That is the route is favourable in regards to doing the Tour after and there are opportunities for Rogla to approach it from different angles. ITT, stomp and long range defence/offence terrain opportunities involved.

But clearly UAE are the favourites, they are winning everything this days, they should hence worry about first half of the Giro a tad more.

 

[Cycling111]

It's never easy to win a GT. As for Giro 2025 i feel that it should suit Rogla. That is the route is favourable in regards to doing the Tour after and there are opportunities for Rogla to approach it from different angles. ITT, stomp and long range defence/offence terrain opportunities involved.

But clearly UAE are the favourites, they are winning everything this days, they should hence worry about first half of the Giro a tad more.

UAE wins many races 2.1 or one-week races without big six rides. But only Pogacar has win a GT or Monument in that team.

They haven't even been able to win an opening weekend classic. Visma won with Tratnik, Laporte, Jorgenson, Van Aert.
Remember that Kuss won la Vuelta because the first two were teammates and he third stronger.
What matters for a Giro d'Italia are those kinds of victories, not winning in Abruzzo or Coppi Bartali againts PC. In a GT, no one apart from Pogacar won.

Adam Yates had his chance to lead Vuelta 2024 and couldn't. No UAE rider in podium.
Ayuso is very unstable in GT; if Roglic doesn't crahs or illness, he's the favorite.

 

[Sciatic]

UAE wins many races 2.1 or one-week races without big six rides. But only Pogacar has win a GT or Monument in that team.

They haven't even been able to win an opening weekend classic. Visma won with Tratnik, Laporte, Jorgenson, Van Aert.
Remember that Kuss won la Vuelta because the first two were teammates and he third stronger.
What matters for a Giro d'Italia are those kinds of victories, not winning in Abruzzo or Coppi Bartali againts PC. In a GT, no one apart from Pogacar won.

Adam Yates had his chance to lead Vuelta 2024 and couldn't. No UAE rider in podium.
Ayuso is very unstable in GT; if Roglic doesn't crahs or illness, he's the favorite.

Winning big 1-week tours is still says a lot about team strength: UAE won Tirreno and Basque Country in just the past month.

 

[Cycling111]

Winning big 1-week tours is still says a lot about team strength: UAE won Tirreno and Basque Country in just the past month.

Last year they also won Itzulia and Switzerland.

The difference is that Almeida won this year and not in other years, because he was second in Tirreno behind Roglic, second behind Vingegaard, second behind Adam Yates. This year he loses against Vingegaard again in Portugal and against Jorgenson in Paris-Niza. Nothing change, he wins without big six or Jogenson in Itzulia.
He beat Enric Mas, who always finishes second to someone, and Schachmann, who hadn't won in three years.
Almeida's level is measured more by his second place in Tirreno behind Roglic than by beating Schachmann, who was missing three years.

Adam and Almeida finished 1-2 in Switzerland, and Adam had no chance of winning Vuelta.

Last year, UAE brought a great team to Vuelta and didn't trouble BORA in the general classification.

Without Pogacar, they´ve failed in their attempts to win GT, even though they win week-races or finish second behind Roglic and Vingegaard every year in thar one-week races.
I don't give Adam Yates any chance of winning the Giro. Ayuso if Roglic crashes or illness.

 

[CyclistAbi]

@Cycling111

But Roglič is 35?

 

[AmRacer]

Last year they also won Itzulia and Switzerland.

The difference is that Almeida won this year and not in other years, because he was second in Tirreno behind Roglic, second behind Vingegaard, second behind Adam Yates. This year he loses against Vingegaard again in Portugal and against Jorgenson in Paris-Niza. Nothing change, he wins without big six or Jogenson in Itzulia.
He beat Enric Mas, who always finishes second to someone, and Schachmann, who hadn't won in three years.
Almeida's level is measured more by his second place in Tirreno behind Roglic than by beating Schachmann, who was missing three years.

Adam and Almeida finished 1-2 in Switzerland, and Adam had no chance of winning Vuelta.

Last year, UAE brought a great team to Vuelta and didn't trouble BORA in the general classification.

Without Pogacar, they´ve failed in their attempts to win GT, even though they win week-races or finish second behind Roglic and Vingegaard every year in thar one-week races.
I don't give Adam Yates any chance of winning the Giro. Ayuso if Roglic crashes or illness.

When did Bora or Visma won a GT with another rider than Jonas and Primoz? Kuss in an exception.

 

[Cycling111]

@Cycling111

But Roglič is 35?

In Volta Catalunya Roglic also is 35 Ayuso 23 and was second behind him.

In La Vuelta 2024 is 34 and where was Adam Yates?

Volta Catalunya confirms that Roglic is the favorite for the Giro.
I don't think Roglic will turn another year older from the Volta to the Giro . He is 35 in both.
He won the final stage against Ayuso as he pleased.