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Probably this is a simplistic observation, and I don't want this discussion to go full Remco thread, but based on looks alone it had seemed to me he might have decided to sacrifice a bit of TT power for better climbing performances, and since those haven't really materialized I'm not so optimistic for today's stage.

And I'm dreading this one more than all others so far, because the profile fits Primoz to a T(T). If he ships a bunch of time today, it really doesn't bode well for his podium chances, does it?
 
Good team support on stage 5 and 6, always keeping Rogla in good position in the bunch. Now onto an ITT, on where hopefully Rogla to already move in top 3 GC.

The ITT doesn't look technical enough for Rog (except perhaps the descent).

It's one of those things, i.e. we as spectators usually can't tell what the profile is going to be really like until we see the riders out there on race day.

In that respect I don't think this suits Rog at all & at this point I hope for damage limitation. So top 3 in GC at the end of the day looks complicated IMO (in fact completely unlikely).
 
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May 20, 2023
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I will consider any delay smaller than 30 sec against Pogačar an exceptional TT by Roglič.

A delay between 30 sec and 60 seconds is "not great not terrible".

A delay bigger than 60 seconds is game over for yellow jersey and he should focus for podium.

If he finished TT ahead of Pogacar, he will be the main contender for the yellow jersey.
 
I will consider any delay smaller than 30 sec against Pogačar an exceptional TT by Roglič.

A delay between 30 sec and 60 seconds is "not great not terrible".

A delay bigger than 60 seconds is game over for yellow jersey and he should focus for podium.

If he finished TT ahead of Pogacar, he will be the main contender for the yellow jersey.


Remco takes 34 secs and Pogi 20 or there abouts. He's still in the race!!!
 
Like others have mentioned, he does look thinner. I hope that he comes into better form in the 3rd week, and I do think Remco will fade some in the latter part of the race. I think the best situation here is Roglic peaks late, Remco can't hang in the later high mountains, and Jonas is just not fully recovered and is beatable in the end. I think Pog will be strong throughout and the podium (even 2nd place) is not out of question at this point for Primoz.
 
3 seconds on Evenepoel, 5 on Pogacar.
Using the data from cyclingnews ., tying to do the math in my head (haha), but here goes a second try.

Primoz down 38 sec at #2 to Remco at #2, down 34 sec at Finish, so Primoz gained 4 seconds on Remco between #2 and Finish

Pogi lost 2 second to Remco between #2 and Finish, Primoz gained 4 seconds. So Primoz gained 6 on Pogi?

Vingo lost 14 seconds to Remco between #2 and Finish, Primoz gained 4 seconds, So Primoz gained 18 seconds on Vingo between #2 and Finish.


Screenshot-from-2024-07-05-10-16-08.png
 
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Like others have mentioned, he does look thinner. I hope that he comes into better form in the 3rd week, and I do think Remco will fade some in the latter part of the race. I think the best situation here is Roglic peaks late, Remco can't hang in the later high mountains, and Jonas is just not fully recovered and is beatable in the end. I think Pog will be strong throughout and the podium (even 2nd place) is not out of question at this point for Primoz.
IMO, he looks shockingly thin, like peak Froome thin. That didn’t translate to better climbing on stage 4 and it seemed to hurt his explosiveness on stage 2, so I’m surprised he did so well today in a way. Hopefully that translates to peak climbing in the third week. Could be dangerous if he hasn’t pushed his weight too far.
That is true. It appears he gained 4 sec on Remco, 2 sec on Pogi, and 16 sec on Vingo

Doing his usual negative split. Better than expected compared to the first two GC stages. Worse than expected compared to his TT in Basque Country and similar TTs in the past.
Why does he always have to do this to his fans? Also, why can a guy who is lethal in prologues and short ITTs not start faster? I don’t think his pacing is typically optimal. He gave up too much at the start IMO.
He does look a little lighter, too like others have noted. He's still over a minute back but has Remco and JV in the hunt for Pogi. Vlasov looked solid and hope a few more Bora guys step up.
Way lighter. Vlasov looks decent but how is Jai Hindley so bad? Was his Giro win just super overrated? It’s hard to believe a Giro winner is so far off the pace. He isn’t old so shouldn’t be declining.
 
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