Tour de France Expected shape of Vingegaard in the 2024 Tour de France

[Netserk]

The big unknown. He has been announced to start, but what shape will he be in?

Timeline from his crash:

86 days before the Tour: Crash, broken ribs and punctured lung, hospitalisation in ICU.
74 days before the Tour: Leaves hospital.
61 days before the Tour: First day on a home-trainer.
53 days before the Tour: First day training outside in Denmark.
41 days before the Tour: First day training in Mallorca.
34 days before the Tour: First day training in the French Alps near Annecy.
32 days before the Tour: Altitude training in Tignes.
9 days before the Tour: Participation in the Tour has been announced.

Poll has been suggested by @Nick2413:

Would it be too much to have a poll on the kind of shape Vingegaard will be in and expectations now that he’s officially listed as competing?

 

[Devil's Elbow]

I think he'll finish second, never looking like beating Pogacar (though able to go toe to toe with him on some of the mountain stages) but also pretty clearly better than everyone else.

 

[solo80k]

Fully recovered, ready to show the world who is the strongest.

 

[Red Rick]

I feel like a real question here is

1. How much did Vingegaard retain from all his work before Itzulia i.e. how important are the really long components of peaking/condition

2. How big is the contrast of a supermutant between his TdF peak form and his basic racing shape.

To me, the idea that Vingegaard could be at or near his best basically violates everything I know about training. Basically the only single mitigating factor is that he didn't get a catastrophic musculoskeletal injury in a location that's extremely important to cyclists.

From what I know, riders don't even really do a huge off season anymore. They don't do slow buildups anymore, they don't start do 0 intensity training before race season. In terms of training and detraining, he should probably be worse off than when he lines up in Gran Camino in February.

I honestly struggle to think of a fair comparison for a rider who lines up at a big race with an injury of similar magnitude and training load. I think Evenepoel in 2021 had been healthy a lot longer before he lined up at the Giro. Maybe Roglic in Tirreno last year compares somewhat.

 

[SHAD0W93]

I think the best he could do is top 10 depending on how the race goes. Which is respectable after his injuries. Realistically Jorgensen should finish ahead of him while he’s in the top 30 and maybe a stage win.

UAE should and most likely will make the race as hard as possible to do to Vignegaard like Visma did to Pogacar the last two years. If he gets dropped on stage 1 and 4 while looking bad on stage 2, it’ll be a long Tour. Even Bora, Quickstep, and Ineos should get in on upping the pace if that’s the case to keep him out of the race in case there is an increase in form like Froome at the 2018 Giro and how some think he might improve.

Legitimately fighting for the podium and not due to a breakaway would be crazy. Flat out winning it close or even being going a step further and being better than last year would be absolutely insane. At that point I’d say he could do the double and maybe even have a great triple attempt. Then if he does have this shape it be interesting to see how Visma ride.

It’s good he will ride but hopefully there’s no crashes and he doesn’t have any gears due to the crash and start having self inflicted mistakes/miscues.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

They say he's "very fit," but he obviously lacks race rhythm, so I think he'll finish 1st or 2nd, with some time loss in week 1. Maybe even up until Pla d'Adet.

 

[Netserk]

No takers for the Vino option so far?!

 

[Rackham]

Roglič had surgery on his shoulder on October 10th 2022. He then made his return at Tirreno on March 6th 2023. He was pretty rusty as well but that's like 5 months or thereabouts between his operation & his first race post-op. That's a lot longer in terms of a rehabilitation timeframe.

I also don't think the issue was ever about Vingegaard's return in time for the Tour either. Alaphilippe for example was back racing two months after suffering similar injuries in Liège 2022 (broken ribs, scapula & collapsed lung). Riding a race doesn't mean racing to win. There's a big difference.

The issue is Vingegaard simply cannot have his optimal form, aka form which he needed to simply 'live' with Pog in most stages last year when we consider the best Vingegaard gained time on Marie-Blanque, Combloux & Loze, yet was actually dropped on Cauterets & Puy-de-Dôme. The 7 minute gap at the end owed to that ITT & Pog's Loze collapse.

I see Vingegaard's inclusion as something very much welcome from an entertainment perspective, yet less so if we're talking about someone who can win it. I think he does have potential to screw with UAE's tactics though because Vingegaard's potential 'adventurousness' could at any point cause Pog to make a tactical error, i.e. like on Granon 2 years ago - which is something another rider close enough in GC could benefit from.

But if someone is asking me right here & now whether Vingegaard will be riding off into the distance with Pog whilst dropping everyone else like the previous 3 TdF's? The answer is no. I don't think that will happen at all. It's just not realistic.

 

[Red Rick]

They say he's "very fit," but he obviously lacks race rhythm, so I think he'll finish 1st or 2nd, with some time loss in week 1. Maybe even up until Pla d'Adet.

I don't see why we should read into anything they say.

 

[SHAD0W93]

No takers for the Vino option so far?!

2007 Vino would be the worst outcome in my opinion.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

They say he's "very fit," but he obviously lacks race rhythm, so I think he'll finish 1st or 2nd, with some time loss in week 1. Maybe even up until Pla d'Adet.

Any professional athlete is „very fit“

 

[Froome]

I feel like a real question here is

1. How much did Vingegaard retain from all his work before Itzulia i.e. how important are the really long components of peaking/condition

2. How big is the contrast of a supermutant between his TdF peak form and his basic racing shape.

To me, the idea that Vingegaard could be at or near his best basically violates everything I know about training. Basically the only single mitigating factor is that he didn't get a catastrophic musculoskeletal injury in a location that's extremely important to cyclists.

From what I know, riders don't even really do a huge off season anymore. They don't do slow buildups anymore, they don't start do 0 intensity training before race season. In terms of training and detraining, he should probably be worse off than when he lines up in Gran Camino in February.

I honestly struggle to think of a fair comparison for a rider who lines up at a big race with an injury of similar magnitude and training load. I think Evenepoel in 2021 had been healthy a lot longer before he lined up at the Giro. Maybe Roglic in Tirreno last year compares somewhat.

"Miracles" happens a lot in this sport.

 

[Escarabajo]

"Good enough to challenge for the victory, but he will fade towards the end of the Tour."
If He is good enough he shouldn't fade at the end. Don't understand the sentence.
"Good enough to challenge for the victory, but he won't be at his best until the end of the Tour."
Same as the last sentence. It doesn't make any sense.
I think VISMA made a mistake putting him in the race. Not because of his fitness but because the skill requirements of Le Tour.
For us fans it was probably the best because we will get emotions everyday with him in the race until he is out of contention.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

"Good enough to challenge for the victory, but he will fade towards the end of the Tour."
If He is good enough he shouldn't fade at the end. Don't understand the sentence.
"Good enough to challenge for the victory, but he won't be at his best until the end of the Tour."
Same as the last sentence. It doesn't make any sense.

Would you say that Simon Yates didn’t challenge for victory at the 2018 Giro?

And while we’re at it, would you say that Chris Froome was at his best before the final stages of that race?

 

[Nick2413]

I just don’t believe he will be in form for podium contention. Nearly 2 weeks in the ICU is a really long time and with lung issues to boot. He might look good on certain stages, but at best I see something similar to the massive breakdown Remco had in the Vuelta last year if he manages to keep things together for a while at first. I don’t think he will grow into form if he’s already barely scraping by the first 2 weeks.

 

[Netserk]

"Good enough to challenge for the victory, but he will fade towards the end of the Tour."
If He is good enough he shouldn't fade at the end. Don't understand the sentence.
"Good enough to challenge for the victory, but he won't be at his best until the end of the Tour."
Same as the last sentence. It doesn't make any sense.
I think VISMA made a mistake putting him in the race. Not because of his fitness but because the skill requirements of Le Tour.
For us fans it was probably the best because we will get emotions everyday with him in the race until he is out of contention.

Pogi last year was good enough to challenge for the victory, but he faded/cracked in the third week.

Vingegaard in the Vuelta last year was a bit rusty to start with, but the strongest rider in the second half of the race.

 

[meat puppet]

So about 25 days completely off the bike and then 1+ weeks before outdoor training and still a bit before proper training. That's a hefty expected loss when juxtaposed to the findings of detraining literature starting from Coyle et al 1984. This recent review provides one with the ballpark, but of course it was done based on studies on non-elite populations: https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/physiology/articles/10.3389/fphys.2023.1334766/full

So speaking seriously, Vinge could regain quite a bit, but of course should not be close to 100%. That would require training through the period he did nothing. Then again this is cycling.

 

[Cookster15]

Basically the only single mitigating factor is that he didn't get a catastrophic musculoskeletal injury in a location that's extremely important to cyclists.

Agree with almost the entirety of your post, except on this quote? I think lungs are extremely important to cyclists, particularly GC contenders. So if he didn't get a catastrophic musculoskeletal injury that is moot? I will be surprised if Vingegaard finishes the Tour.

I think Visma felt pressured because of his record and as defending champion but they made a mistake to put him in the Tour. Not just physically ready but more importantly psychologically. The Tour de France is not the race to get your confidence back after a bad crash. I suppose the Galibier will give us early answers.

 

[SHAD0W93]

"Miracles" happens a lot in this sport.

View: https://youtu.be/cTjQJXr_a-g?si=2USi1cQV4n-UvE6C

 

[meat puppet]

Lungs I think are one area where there is plenty of actual excess capacity. Oxygen delivery in trained populations or above is constrained by cardiac output primarily and a-vo2 difference (muscle capacity to utilise the oxygen delivered) secondarily, extraction from the atmosphere is typically not a significant constraint at all.

So unless Vinge injured his lungs very seriously, I think he should be fine in that department already.

 

[Netserk]

Lungs I think are one area where there is plenty of actual excess capacity. Oxygen delivery in trained populations or above is constrained by cardiac output primarily and a-vo2 difference (muscle capacity to utilise the oxygen delivered) secondarily, extraction from the atmosphere is typically not a significant constraint at all.

So unless Vinge injured his lungs very seriously, I think he should be fine in that department already.

If so, why does altitude affect performance already from below 1000 m?

 

[SHAD0W93]

Agree with almost the entirety of your post, except on this quote? I think lungs are extremely important to cyclists, particularly GC contenders. So if he didn't get a catastrophic musculoskeletal injury that is moot? I will surprised if Vingegaard finishes the Tour.

I think Visma felt pressured because of his record and as defending champion but they made a mistake to put him in the Tour. Not just physically ready but more importantly psychologically. The Tour de France is not the race to get your confidence back after a bad crash. I suppose the Galibier will give us early answers.

It will be very telling how labored his breathing is with exertion and the altitude. Last year I did a Spartan race in Utah that started at 9000 ft altitude and I live in 2000, the more the race went on and further we went up the harder it got to breathe.

I think he will learn suffering since training isn’t the same as racing (plus the other stress), hopefully he doesn’t pass out.

 

[Gigs_98]

I voted "in the fight for the podium" but I think my true opinion is something between that and the two options above. I think he won't win but I think that at spots his shape will be good enough to pose a serious threat. Like, he might be able to get a gap on Bonnette, which could lead to a situation spiralling out of control for Pogacar. That doesn't mean he'll ever actually be at his best. Also, no idea if he's more likely to be good early or late, even though late seems more intuitive.

So yeah, my expectation is around the middle of the poll but since I also think "not the best of his team" is more likely than "at his best" I went for the "podium" pick.

 

[meat puppet]

If so, why does altitude affect performance already from below 1000 m?

Because there is less oxygen in the atmosphere to be extracted and delivered to the exercising muscles than at sea level. My use of the expression "extraction" was probably misleading as it touches upon more than one component of the delivery chain. But the point is that the oxygen delivery system works akin to a bucket brigade and what the lungs in and of themselves contribute is generally not the limiting factor.

Sorry for the OT.

 

[Nick2413]

If so, why does altitude affect performance already from below 1000 m?

To my understanding it is the pressure that affects performance, not ventilation. Meaning the partial pressure of oxygen getting pushed into the hemoglobin is lower at altitude, even if you can breathe an infinite amount. Not sure if that’s what you were talking about.

My take is the lungs are just not a great thing to be injured before a Tour de France, not sure which specific aspects of it are more problematic specifically for Vingegaard.