Tour de France Expected shape of Vingegaard in the 2024 Tour de France

[Jan the Man]

He is obviously immensely talented and a less than fully conditioned Vigno could compete at the top end of the Tour. He would not be coming unless he had decent shape.

However given the injuries and lack of race prep it is inconceivable to me that he can reach similar peak to last year.

 

[AmRacer]

Maybe I haven't studied the route carefully enough, but I'd guess that stages 1-4 are nowhere near hard enough to shake Vingegaard, even if he's not in optimal shape. So that first TT could be a 'moment of truth' and a chance for UAE to really make a difference.

The big mountain stages this year seem to be stacked in the final week from stage 14 onwards with a culmination in the last couple of stages. I'd guess that's where the TdF will be won - not with a few seconds gained here or there in the first half of the Tour. I remember Vingegaard saying last year - in response to Pogacar outsprinting him at several finishes - that "the Tour will be won by minutes, not seconds".

Vingegaard has been so dominant in the highest mountains and TT's in the last two years that I really struggle to see him collapsing in that third week. I think he'll hang on the first two weeks, maybe lose a few seconds here or there, ride conservatively as usual, then crush everyone when it really matters ...

Remco is the number one favourite to win stage 7.

 

[Rob5091]

From what Vingegaard's coach and Froome said, he'll struggle in the ITT.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Maybe I haven't studied the route carefully enough, but I'd guess that stages 1-4 are nowhere near hard enough to shake Vingegaard, even if he's not in optimal shape. So that first TT could be a 'moment of truth' and a chance for UAE to really make a difference.

The big mountain stages this year seem to be stacked in the final week from stage 14 onwards with a culmination in the last couple of stages. I'd guess that's where the TdF will be won - not with a few seconds gained here or there in the first half of the Tour. I remember Vingegaard saying last year - in response to Pogacar outsprinting him at several finishes - that "the Tour will be won by minutes, not seconds".

Vingegaard has been so dominant in the highest mountains and TT's in the last two years that I really struggle to see him collapsing in that third week. I think he'll hang on the first two weeks, maybe lose a few seconds here or there, ride conservatively as usual, then crush everyone when it really matters ...

Pogacar, Roglic, UAE, Bora, Ineos, and Quickstep to Vingegaard.

View: https://youtu.be/EAPViUrsl9U?si=SuIWlfvpVRUIhklJ

 

[Netserk]

The big unknown. He has been announced to start, but what shape will he be in?

Timeline from his crash:

86 days before the Tour: Crash, broken ribs and punctured lung, hospitalisation in ICU.
74 days before the Tour: Leaves hospital.
61 days before the Tour: First day on a home-trainer.
53 days before the Tour: First day training outside in Denmark.
41 days before the Tour: First day training in Mallorca.
34 days before the Tour: First day training in the French Alps near Annecy.
32 days before the Tour: Altitude training in Tignes.
9 days before the Tour: Participation in the Tour has been announced.

Poll has been suggested by @Nick2413:

Date of training on stationary bike confirmed: https://www.wielerflits.nl/nieuws/h...-ultrakorte-revalidatie-van-jonas-vingegaard/

He also says that he is not at his best yet. Let's see if he will reach that from now on.

 

[Medvind]

Date of training on stationary bike confirmed: https://www.wielerflits.nl/nieuws/h...-ultrakorte-revalidatie-van-jonas-vingegaard/

He also says that he is not at his best yet. Let's see if he will reach that from now on.

Thanks for the link, very interesting read.

 

[Froome]

Date of training on stationary bike confirmed: https://www.wielerflits.nl/nieuws/h...-ultrakorte-revalidatie-van-jonas-vingegaard/

He also says that he is not at his best yet. Let's see if he will reach that from now on.

It was all "fake".

 

[tobydawq]

I think it's fair to conclude that option 3 was the right one.

What do we win?

 

[Samu Cuenca]

I think it's fair to conclude that option 3 was the right one.

What do we win?

If he crashes out or gets too sick, the Vino voters would also win.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Does Option 5 also win, or was his Le Lioran stage too good?

 

[tobydawq]

Does Option 5 also win, or was his Le Lioran stage too good?

I thought about that one too but considered it too good. Also on San Luca he could follow Pog (not that that in itself is enough to challenge for the Tour win of course) and for more than half the race he was considered as big a favourite as Pogacar by many.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I think it's fair to conclude that option 3 was the right one.

What do we win?

When did he really challenge for the win, though? I think 1, 2 and 5 was more correct. He was basically as good - perhaps even better - than ever and ready to dominate. Pogacar was just a lot better than ever, so he ended up fighting for the podium (although there wasn't really much of a fight there either).

That said, the Tour isn't over yet, so it can all change still.

 

[tobydawq]

When did he really challenge for the win, though? I think 1, 2 and 5 was more correct. He was basically as good - perhaps even better - than ever and ready to dominate. Pogacar was just a lot better than ever, so he ended up fighting for the podium (although there wasn't really much of a fight there either).

That said, the Tour isn't over yet, so it can all change still.

He was the bookmaker favourite after thirteen stages.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

He was the bookmaker favourite after thirteen stages.

Sure, but that's two very different things. Being the bookies favorite doesn't mean you ever challenge for the win. That's based on the chance that Vingegaard is better than Pogacar later on in the race which he never was. Van der Poel was the bookmaker favorite to win Worlds 2022, but he never challenged for the win either.

 

[tobydawq]

Sure, but that's two very different things. Being the bookies favorite doesn't mean you ever challenge for the win. That's based on the chance that Vingegaard is better than Pogacar later on in the race which he never was. Van der Poel was the bookmaker favorite to win Worlds 2022, but he never challenged for the win either.

True, but can you really say that after stage eleven you didn't think he had a good chance?

My main point, however, is that he has seemed to fade which most people didn't think he would.

 

[Netserk]

Sure, but that's two very different things. Being the bookies favorite doesn't mean you ever challenge for the win. That's based on the chance that Vingegaard is better than Pogacar later on in the race which he never was. Van der Poel was the bookmaker favorite to win Worlds 2022, but he never challenged for the win either.

For a one-day race, the live odds after the first selection of the favourites would be comparable. Not the pre-race odds.

 

[Escarabajo]

I think #5 was the correct one.

 

[Netserk]

I made this poll with the assumption that the level needed to win was comparable to that of last year. Boy, was I wrong.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

It was more or less what I expected before the race. He was very strong but preparation shortcomings resurfaced during some stages (like Pla d'Adet or today).

 

[Valv.Piti]

It was more or less what I expected before the race. He was very strong but preparation shortcomings resurfaced during some stages (like Pla d'Adet or today).

Looking at the w/kg, I don't think it was what everyone expected. But relative to the competitors, I'd think that is about right. But had Vingegaard raced against previous versions of Pog, he'd most likely win... that says something about just how good Jonas actually has been which NOBODY could have predicted. Not even mou!

 

[Miha81]

Looking at the w/kg, I don't think it was what everyone expected. But relative to the competitors, I'd think that is about right. But had Vingegaard raced against previous versions of Pog, he'd most likely win... that says something about just how good Jonas actually has been which NOBODY could have predicted. Not even mou!

I did not believe Jonas can be that good after that horrible crash. But I did not believe Pog can perform on such level either. I agree that 2024 Jonas would probably win against 2023 or 2022 version of Pog.

 

[tobydawq]

But relative to Remco, it's obvious that he's fading.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

I did not believe Jonas can be that good after that horrible crash. But I did not believe Pog can perform on such level either. I agree that 2024 Jonas would probably win against 2023 or 2022 version of Pog.

In cycling heaven, we get to see Pog, Vingo, Froome, Pantani, and Contador go head-to-head all at their best.