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Tour de France Expected shape of Vingegaard in the 2024 Tour de France

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What shape will Jonas Vingegaard be in for the 2024 Tour de France?

  • Best shape of his life, ready to totally dominate the Tour.

    Votes: 10 6.5%

  • Fully recovered, comparable to previous years.

    Votes: 14 9.2%

  • Good enough to challenge for the victory, but he will fade towards the end of the Tour.

    Votes: 10 6.5%

  • Good enough to challenge for the victory, but he won't be at his best until the end of the Tour.

    Votes: 44 28.8%

  • In the fight for a podium spot, but not the top step.

    Votes: 42 27.5%

  • Not even the best on his team.

    Votes: 21 13.7%

  • Mistake to start, he will be unable to finish the race.

    Votes: 8 5.2%

  • Other/Vino

    Votes: 4 2.6%
  • Total voters
    153
  • Poll closed .
Extinction

Extinction

Jan 8, 2020
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Berniece said:
If I was UAE I would set a high pace starting from Cote de Barbotto. By the time you start with Cote de San Marino, there should only be 30-40 riders left, and most of them should have difficulty breathing. If Pogacar goes hard on San Marino, and no one is able to follow, while doing a decent downhill, they won't catch him. He gets 10s at the finish, Vingegaard won't take any bonus seconds. So I wouldn't be surprised if he finished 20s ahead of the pack.
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If UAE knows Pog is in top shape, but not Vingo, why would they bury the team and send Pog into TT mode on the first stage? So I think they will play it conservatively, knowing what Vingo did to Pog in the last two Tours. Unless Vingo is clearly struggling they would be wise to save their bullets.
 
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Berniece

Berniece

Sep 12, 2022
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Extinction said:
If UAE knows Pog is in top shape, but not Vingo, why would they bury the team and send Pog into TT mode on the first stage? So I think they will play it conservatively, knowing what Vingo did to Pog in the last two Tours. Unless Vingo is clearly struggling they would be wise to save their bullets.
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Because Vingo might get better by the third week, so try to get as much time as possible before you lose time in the third week because you start feeling the double attempt in your legs
 
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Extinction

Extinction

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Berniece said:
Because Vingo might get better by the third week, so try to get as much time as possible before you lose time in the third week because you start feeling the double attempt in your legs
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Right, but here is the tricky thing, and why I said Visma should keep everybody in the dark for as long as possible; Vingegaard could get weaker in the third week, having missed so much training, for the energy the body expends in the long healing process and the fact that he hasn't raced since Itzulia, which might make him more uncomfortable and therefore nervous in the beginning of the Tour, causing him to expend more energy just riding in the peloton. So if Pog is on his best level, why do a TT to the finish on day one? He won't need the time so early in my (hypocritical) scenario or he could pay for it in the end in yours.
 
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Berniece

Berniece

Sep 12, 2022
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Extinction said:
Right, but here is the tricky thing, and why I said Visma should keep everybody in the dark for as long as possible; Vingegaard could get weaker in the third week, having missed so much training, for the energy the body expends in the long healing process and the fact that he hasn't raced since Itzulia, which might make him more uncomfortable and therefore nervous in the beginning of the Tour, causing him to expend more energy just riding in the peloton. So if Pog is on his best level, why do a TT to the finish on day one? He won't need the time so early in my (hypocritical) scenario or he could pay for it in the end in yours.
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There are multiple scenarios that could happen. I'm just saying what I would do.

Pogacar could indeed pay for efforts made in the first week, in the third week. Just like they could pay for efforts not made in the first week, in the third week if Vingegaard would take time back.
 
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Extinction

Extinction

Jan 8, 2020
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Berniece said:
There are multiple scenarios that could happen. I'm just saying what I would do.

Pogacar could indeed pay for efforts made in the first week, in the third week. Just like they could pay for efforts not made in the first week, in the third week if Vingegaard would take time back.
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Yea, but the beauty is he already has paid for efforts in the first week, but perhaps should dare upon that losing strategy again, maybe to his undoing (sardonic smile). It's a mystery wrapped in an enigma.
 
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Maxss

Maxss

Jul 21, 2023
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I guess we'll have to see, but the feeling is good. I don't believe they bring him to the tour if he's weak. The hope of course is that he'll improve throughout the tour and reach peak form come the 3rd week.

It's gonna be interesting to see how they'll ride stage 1 and espescially 4.
 
Taxus4a

Taxus4a

Aug 12, 2012
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Hugo Koblet said:
I expect him to be as good as last year and I'm looking forward to a great battle between him and Pogacar. I think Vingegaard will get his third win.
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I think the team expect him is so good that he show that level and can figh for victory, but of coure they have serious doubts....They go with him becouse is his best rider, the best rider of the world for le Tour, and he must be on the start, but it is almost impossible he can be at the begining at his best. When Contador won that Vuelta to Froome he was training several weeks at a high level, and despite that he started not very good the race. The start is no so hard like at Bilbao, but there is an important stage at stage 4.
 
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red_flanders

red_flanders

Apr 3, 2009
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Taxus4a said:
I think the team expect him is so good that he show that level and can figh for victory, but of coure they have serious doubts....They go with him becouse is his best rider, the best rider of the world for le Tour, and he must be on the start, but it is almost impossible he can be at the begining at his best. When Contador won that Vuelta to Froome he was training several weeks at a high level, and despite that he started not very good the race. The start is no so hard like at Bilbao, but there is an important stage at stage 4.
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I think that sounds about exactly right.

I would think UAE would be pushing hard on certain stages in the first week. Don't know if they'll have the chance to bury him with the shorter climbs on day 1, and the easier side of the Galibier on offer on day 4, but they have to be thinking put what time into him you can now, you'll need it later. I would think stage 1 is going to explode some folks. We'll see if Vingo is one of them, but to me UAE have to try and separate from day 1.

I realize the Tour is heavily back loaded with the long climbs. Would be better for the other teams if some bigger climbs came earlier, but I think there's enough difficulty that they'll try hard to cook him.
 
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