Tour de France Expected shape of Vingegaard in the 2024 Tour de France

[Rackham]

Or it’s just a publicity stunt to calm sponsors

I think that's equal to the same tbh.

Visma is going to the Tour with the cards they've been dealt. The management wants Vingegeaard there, the sponsors want Vingegeaard there & I'd hazard a guess Vingegaard wants to be there.

The part I strongly disagree with is the assumption Vingegaard must have fine form & TdF winning legs to be on the startlist. I don't think so. In fact this sport has often demonstrated the complete opposite: riders go into races with subpar condition for a myriad of reasons, namely when that's all the team has.

What was the alternative? Kooij in sprints for stage wins? That's just kicking the can down the road because they've got the same problem: a stronger rival (in the case of sprints, Jasper Philipsen). So I think they'd rather take their chances with a shot at a decent GC with Vingegaard.

Like I said, a podium can be achieved with a 10 minute deficit on Pog. I assume that must be part of their thinking as well.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

I called it!

I don't think you did, though. The team doesn't 'bet on it', but thinks he can possibly challenge FTW.

You: "After some consideration I've reached the conclusion he'll be 'okay' but nowhere near the yellow jersey. He might grab a stage win though (this will be painted as a big win in & of itself). I don't believe he'll win the Tour [...]"

 

[Froome]

I agree with your analysis. Being even near his top after his crash and the fractures and punctured lung would defy all laws of cycling. I cincerely hope he will totally recover, but not yet at the start of the Tour. Because that would completely destroy my faith in cycling.

Clearly you don't believe that miracles happens in cycling.

 

[scribers]

I think that's equal to the same tbh.

Visma is going to the Tour with the cards they've been dealt. The management wants Vingegeaard there, the sponsors want Vingegeaard there & I'd hazard a guess Vingegaard wants to be there.

The part I strongly disagree with is the assumption Vingegaard must have fine form & TdF winning legs to be on the startlist. I don't think so. In fact this sport has often demonstrated the complete opposite: riders go into races with subpar condition for a myriad of reasons, namely when that's all the team has.

What was the alternative? Kooij in sprints for stage wins? That's just kicking the can down the road because they've got the same problem: a stronger rival (in the case of sprints, Jasper Philipsen). So I think they'd rather take their chances with a shot at a decent GC with Vingegaard.

Like I said, a podium can be achieved with a 10 minute deficit on Pog. I assume that must be part of their thinking as well.

In sports psychology there is this thing where you learn to lose. This is a risk of taking him to consequential races unprepared

 

[Rackham]

I don't think you did, though. The team doesn't 'bet on it', but thinks he can possibly challenge FTW.

You: "After some consideration I've reached the conclusion he'll be 'okay' but nowhere near the yellow jersey. He might grab a stage win though (this will be painted as a big win in & of itself). I don't believe he'll win the Tour [...]"

That's... semantics?

If you want to play that game, I reckon on the 'spectrum of predictions' mine was far closer to the picture Tiesj Benoot painted of the Vingegaard situation than many of the very optimistic predictions we saw after the Visma team was announced.

There are people here on this forum & all over social media who really do think it'll be another battle between Pog & Vinge whilst the rest are all fighting for scraps, i.e. with Vinge coming good in week 3 & dropping some watts bombs like the good old days of 2022 & 2023. Meanwhile I do not think that's realistic at all.

It looks like Benoot doesn't think that's realistic either (unless people think he's also deliberately downplaying his teammate's chances... at which point we've only got 6 days to wait before we find out some of the truth on stage 1 in Florence).

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

That's... semantics?

If you want to play that game,

No, I'm not interested in semantic arguments, at all. I'm way past that. I truly believe they think there's a *legitimate* chance he can challenge Pog. Benoot's comments are in line with that, IMO. YMMV.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Matteo Jorgenson tipped as future Tour de France contender, but this year 'still developing' - Visma management

American mainly set for support role for Jonas Vingegaard, alongside Sepp Kuss

www.cyclingnews.com

This article is intriguing, on the importance for Visma to state Kuss and Jorgenson are there only to support Vingegaard and nothing else. From tactical point of view one really can't stress that enough.

 

[shadowrider]

Witnessing the Belgian national, I could see Van Aert struggling. He was not really bad, but gave never the impression he could win. Not always able to maintain his position in the peloton. Or to move up. At the end, he could sprint for victory, but was outsprinted. So, he is still not in topshape. But then, how could Vingegaard be ? He crashed weeks later and started training weeks later of Van Aert.

 

[shadowrider]

Clearly you don't believe that miracles happens in cycling.

Oh, miracles happens (and happened) in cycling (and other sports). But those "miracles" are not/were not due to divine intervention. But rather because of something that we are only allowed to discuss in "the clinic".

 

[Nick2413]

Nothing any of the team staff or riders say is worth listening to at this point, the bike is the only thing that will do the talking. The team mostly relaying confidence while also making a few comments about not being certain of a podium is about what you’d expect no matter what shape he’s actually in right now.

The’ll keep all 3 of their riders in contention as long as possible because unless they really are 100% bluffing, they’re in uncharted territory themselves and have no idea what to expect if Vingegaard makes it out of week 1 still in contention.

 

[Cookster15]

Well we don't have to wait long to get a much better idea. The Galibier is on Tuesday next week - 8 days.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Well we don't have to wait long to get a much better idea. The Galibier is on Tuesday next week - 8 days.

Still, the start of the Tour is on Saturday, 6 days from now, which seems eternity. Can't wait!

 

[kingjr]

I wouldn't be surprised if he's out of contention by the end of stage 1.

 

[Extinction]

Well we don't have to wait long to get a much better idea. The Galibier is on Tuesday next week - 8 days.

I'd say even stages one and especially two, with the finish on San Luca, will already indicate if Vingegaard is thereabouts or not.

 

[Extinction]

I wouldn't be surprised if he's out of contention by the end of stage 1.

That would mean he's totally unprepared and they'd hardly be sending him if that were the case. I think the greater issue, with his sub-optimal prep, is endurance the deeper he gets in the Tour.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

I think that's a voting exclusively for the oracle - of which is not me
So I chose the non-option:
I haven't the faintest clue.

 

[Berniece]

Well we don't have to wait long to get a much better idea. The Galibier is on Tuesday next week - 8 days.

I think we might even learn this at stage 1. If Pogacar has any doubt about maybe fading a bit in the third week, he has to go all out in the beginning. If Vingegaard isn't that good in the beginning I wouldn't be surprised if Pogacar takes 30s already day 1

 

[Miha81]

I think we might even learn this at stage 1. If Pogacar has any doubt about maybe fading a bit in the third week, he has to go all out in the beginning. If Vingegaard isn't that good in the beginning I wouldn't be surprised if Pogacar takes 30s already day 1

If he is in form UAE tends us to believe he is they will go full gas just to test the opponents if nothing else.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Reading between the lines, re: a recent interview, the team seems to think that Vingegaard could lose minutes in week 1, but could possibly still be competitive overall. Stages 19 - 21 will be crucial.

It will be interesting to see how Kuss is used. They can't support Vingegaard, Jorgenson and him. Jorgenson deserves the benefit of the doubt at this point.

 

[SHAD0W93]

A better question will be who’s further behind after week 1; Kuss, Jorgensen, or Vingegaard.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

A better question will be who’s further behind after week 1; Kuss, Jorgensen, or Vingegaard.

Pretty sure it will be Kuss if they didn't totally miscaculat Vingegaards condition, which is possible. It's also possible they simply don't know how he'll react to racing. But my guess is that his numbers can't be *** otherwise he'd not be announced. The first week does include a time trial, so even if Kuss doesn't loose time on the first stages (which he will I think because he's Kuss) the TT will do it.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

I think we might even learn this at stage 1. If Pogacar has any doubt about maybe fading a bit in the third week, he has to go all out in the beginning. If Vingegaard isn't that good in the beginning I wouldn't be surprised if Pogacar takes 30s already day 1

I've shared my thoughts on this forum a couple of weeks ago, about the scenario you first mention, of which is very possible,. If he lacks anything, then there are many factors, other than just GC, which make themselves felt on the first few stages.

But why 30s?

It's not an uphill puncheur finish.
After the last of the climbs I think it is approx. 10k downhill followed by 10k completely flat towards Rimini. Then it should be caused by Visma trying to pull in, chasing after a front field with Pogi, trying to limit too unconfortable gaps.

But in that case I can better imagine far more damage than 30s.

With a front group consisting of, apart from a presumably really strong set of UAE riders, maybe a single Visma rider and then tough winning candidates with strong teammates who can make it extremely difficult for Visma if they have to nurse Jonas and constantly adjust the speed thereafter over several puncheur hills and quirky slopes in a hectic pursuit race.

This kind of thing can do FAR more damage on the stages to Rimini and Bologna if the stages are raced really aggressivly from the starting line - e.g. just by the UAE "following" without using too much effort, which they have to save for week 3.

But as I mentioned earlier - I have no clue about Jonas's current shape nor his abilities in group competition mode.
I can only state that he has zero kilometers of race training leading up to the toughest GT of the 3. That may have something to say when he stands on the starting line next to others with fresh race legs.

 

[Berniece]

But why 30s?

It's not an uphill puncheur finish.
After the last of the climbs I think it is approx. 10km downhill followed by completely flat towards Rimini. Then it should be caused by Visma pulling Jonas back in on her own, chasing after a front field with Pogi.

If I was UAE I would set a high pace starting from Cote de Barbotto. By the time you start with Cote de San Marino, there should only be 30-40 riders left, and most of them should have difficulty breathing. If Pogacar goes hard on San Marino, and no one is able to follow, while doing a decent downhill, they won't catch him. He gets 10s at the finish, Vingegaard won't take any bonus seconds. So I wouldn't be surprised if he finished 20s ahead of the pack.

 

[ppanther92]

I assign a 90% probability that he will be again the best with Pogacar (10% are sentimental "Roglic gets it right at his last real shot at a TdF win" points). Evenepoel and co are simply not up there in GTs with those two.

I voted for "Good enough to challenge for the victory, but he won't be at his best until the end of the Tour" since he obviously lost training days but has really shown superb in-GT recovery the last 3 additions and at the Vuelta as well, which he really went in undercooked but certainly was the strongest towards the end again.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

If I was UAE I would set a high pace starting from Cote de Barbotto. By the time you start with Cote de San Marino, there should only be 30-40 riders left, and most of them should have difficulty breathing. If Pogacar goes hard on San Marino, and no one is able to follow, while doing a decent downhill, they won't catch him. He gets 10s at the finish, Vingegaard won't take any bonus seconds. So I wouldn't be surprised if he finished 20s ahead of the pack.

Ofc possible scenario if Visma manages to keep it all together all the way until the buttom at Côte de San Marino.
However I can imagine several possible interesting scenarios a long time before that, where Visma can suddenly end up in a shower of headaches and dilemmas, if it all blows up right from the start of the stage and Jonas struggles a bit with it. As mentioned earlier, it doesn't have to be the UAE using all its efforts, just taking a comfortable back seat in the front group while Visma is nursing.

But well - Jonas is really an unknown unknown to me yet.
Just mentioning worst case scenarioes for Visma and the vultures pounce on him from all corners and edges at once.