Tour de France Expected shape of Vingegaard in the 2024 Tour de France

[CyclistAbi]

Main candidate for the overall is in my opinion Primož Roglič. Motivated, well trained and focused, mostly healthy and with a strong team behind him.

Tadej Pogačar is in my opinion the strongest of the rest. He has a strong team behind him, is healthy and motivated. He did Giro though and the rest of the spring campaign was giving too. I don't see much possibility at this Tour edition, for not paying a price for that.

Remco Evenepoel is the one i feel has the most chances to finishing on the podium, third place. I feel that he will be in decent form and will have a decent team behind him. Unless he opts in for stage hunting i feel that a place in top five is realistic.

Jonas Vingegaard, if he finishes this Tour edition, can in my opinion finish in top 10 position. If he finishes in top 5 that would be mind blowing.

As for some other teams, like Ineos. I feel that we will have one or two cyclists capable of fighting for the last podium spot and more realistically to finish in top 5 position. Mainly due to the fact a lot of quality riders will need to empty themself for their leaders and to abandon their own GC chances. So although the gap in between top 3 to 4 teams and the rest of the peloton is substantial, that should still enable a top 5 position for a team leader not considered to be in the top team.

Looking forward to the start of this Tour edition and hopefully for all mentioned cyclist to finish it and enjoy it for at least a bit.

 

[Extinction]

It's the perfect Tour.
If Vingo looses, he has the crash to blame. If he wins, it will be "he's so good he even wins the Tour with the crash!!!111!"
If Pogi looses, he has the Giro to blame. I he wins, it will be "he's so good he even wins the Tour with Giro!!!111!

So only Tour 2025 will settle the score, which is unfortunate, because there's a limit for the w/kg mantras I can take.

The Giro for Pog, however, is not the same issue that the crash was for Vingegaard. For clearly Jonas has experienced the greater disadvantage.

 

[Elos Anjos]

The Giro for Pog, however, is not the same issue that the crash was for Vingegaard. For clearly Jonas has experienced the greater disadvantage.

You don't know that.
But the point was that they can both (Giro & Crash) be used ex post facto as alibis.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Main candidate for the overall is in my opinion Primož Roglič. Motivated, well trained and focused, mostly healthy and with a strong team behind him.

Tadej Pogačar is in my opinion the strongest of the rest. He has a strong team behind him, is healthy and motivated. He did Giro though and the rest of the spring campaign was giving too. I don't see much possibility at this Tour edition, for not paying a price for that.

Remco Evenepoel is the one i feel has the most chances to finishing on the podium, third place. I feel that he will be in decent form and will have a decent team behind him. Unless he opts in for stage hunting i feel that a place in top five is realistic.

Jonas Vingegaard, if he finishes this Tour edition, can in my opinion finish in top 10 position. If he finishes in top 5 that would be mind blowing.

As for some other teams, like Ineos. I feel that we will have one or two cyclists capable of fighting for the last podium spot and more realistically to finish in top 5 position. Mainly due to the fact a lot of quality riders will need to empty themself for their leaders and to abandon their own GC chances. So although the gap in between top 3 to 4 teams and the rest of the peloton is substantial, that should still enable a top 5 position for a team leader not considered to be in the top team.

Looking forward to the start of this Tour edition and hopefully for all mentioned cyclist to finish it and enjoy it for at least a bit.

Great, informative and unbiased post as per usual.

If Roglic is even close on stage 19 I'll change my avatar to Primoz mailmanning a random victory in T-A the rest of my life on this forum

 

[Froome]

@

Main candidate for the overall is in my opinion Primož Roglič. Motivated, well trained and focused, mostly healthy and with a strong team behind him.

Tadej Pogačar is in my opinion the strongest of the rest. He has a strong team behind him, is healthy and motivated. He did Giro though and the rest of the spring campaign was giving too. I don't see much possibility at this Tour edition, for not paying a price for that.

Remco Evenepoel is the one i feel has the most chances to finishing on the podium, third place. I feel that he will be in decent form and will have a decent team behind him. Unless he opts in for stage hunting i feel that a place in top five is realistic.

Jonas Vingegaard, if he finishes this Tour edition, can in my opinion finish in top 10 position. If he finishes in top 5 that would be mind blowing.

As for some other teams, like Ineos. I feel that we will have one or two cyclists capable of fighting for the last podium spot and more realistically to finish in top 5 position. Mainly due to the fact a lot of quality riders will need to empty themself for their leaders and to abandon their own GC chances. So although the gap in between top 3 to 4 teams and the rest of the peloton is substantial, that should still enable a top 5 position for a team leader not considered to be in the top team.

Looking forward to the start of this Tour edition and hopefully for all mentioned cyclist to finish it and enjoy it for at least a bit.

@CyclistAbi you believe more in Roglic, than Roglic believes in himself.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

@

@CyclistAbi you believe more in Roglic, than Roglic believes in himself.

You're thinking of Roglič before he watched the Visma promo video. Now he has an unlimited amount of confidence.

 

[Froome]

You're thinking of Roglič before he watched the Visma promo video. Now he has an unlimited amount of confidence.

No doubt about that, he now even decides to win races by just 8 s just because he wants....confidence in not spending more energy than necessary for the Tour, it's called long range defense.

 

[Extinction]

You don't know that.
But the point was that they can both (Giro & Crash) be used ex post facto as alibis.

No, a punctured lung with multiple fractures is the clear winner in this contest. No alibi, it's not even up for debate chap.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Great, informative and unbiased post as per usual.

I feel it is.

If Roglic is even close on stage 19 I'll change my avatar to Primoz mailmanning a random victory in T-A the rest of my life on this forum

No, as first of all this could be a trick proposition, you might be a secret Rogla admirer, as far as i know. And if you are really not, then this would be too severe. If you would still like to commemorate such event, this is what i would like you to do instead. Hug your granny, say you love her and admit it to her she was always right and about everything. After please come back, as there will still be some racing left to do and history to be made.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

No doubt about that, he now even decides to win races by just 8 s just because he wants....confidence in not spending more energy than necessary for the Tour, it's called long range defense.

One thing is certain: someone is peaking for the Tour and I don't mean Roglic!

 

[SHAD0W93]

Hug your granny, say you love her and admit it to her she was always right and about everything.

Now we need to know @Valv.Piti grandma’s favorite to win the Tour.

 

[Rackham]

Look, I'd love for nothing more than for Roglič to finally win the TdF. I also won't jinx it or tempt fate by asserting his pre-Tour ranking as a 'favorite' either. I know how quickly everything can go to hell.

But, I'll absolutely say there's a Rogla boom/bust cycle in online conversations & the 'bust' always seems to occur outside of actual racing. I mean yeah yeah the Tour has always gone badly for some reason or another but this is a rider with 80+ career wins & 4 GT's. I swear his ranking among top contenders gets lower & lower the closer to the actual main event we get. It happens every time, no matter the race.

What I will say is he's very smart & he knows his own strengths & weaknesses. Will he win the Tour? I have no idea. The odds are against him. But can he win the Tour? Yes, absolutely. It's a 3 week race. I'd say he stands a better chance than quite a few other leaders.

In fact I'd say he's above Vingegaard right now in my own personal hierarchy of favorites. He has a full team behind him & he should have decent enough form to compete.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Now we need to know @Valv.Piti grandma’s favorite to win the Tour.

A lady never tells.

@Rackham

Exactly. Like rankings on where Rogla was listed barely in top 10 division of climbers. Plus i feel that some respect must be reserved for the reigning champion, still every article i read on the internet in the last month or so started in the lines of, favourites being,

Pogi
Jonas
...

Collective madness.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Collective madness is when people unironically declare Roglic the favorite to win the race. He will be buried deeper than Kendrick Lamar buried Drake by Pogacar.

Not like us! Or in this race, not like Pog.

 

[KZD]

If Vingegaard is within striking distance before the Nice TT, then I think Pog gets Poged.

Its possible but not likely, I would say.

This one is longer and although La Turbie is a longer climb, the gradients are shallower when compared to Dormancy last year which should benefit Pogačar and UAE's heavier set-up too. Not only that, the TT itself will also be ridden in roads that Pogačar knows very well.

Obviously being a hard TT on stage 21, the strongest rider should manage to claw back some time but I would be surprised if Vingegaard takes more than 1 minute and a half on Pogačar this time.

 

[Froome]

I feel it is.



No, as first of all this could be a trick proposition, you might be a secret Rogla admirer, as far as i know. And if you are really not, then this would be too severe. If you would still like to commemorate such event, this is what i would like you to do instead. Hug your granny, say you love her and admit it to her she was always right and about everything. After please come back, as there will still be some racing left to do and history to be made.

You are in great shape @CyclistAbi . If Roglic is in the same shape, he will win the Tour.

 

[Extinction]

Its possible but not likely, I would say.

This one is longer and although La Turbie is a longer climb, the gradients are shallower when compared to Dormancy last year which should benefit Pogačar and UAE's heavier set-up too. Not only that, the TT itself will also be ridden in roads that Pogačar knows very well.

Obviously being a hard TT on stage 21, the strongest rider should manage to claw back some time but I would be surprised if Vingegaard takes more than 1 minute and a half on Pogačar this time.

I've ridden la Turbie and Col d'Eze and this deep in the race I think Vingegaard has the advantage, if he's in top shape. Pog would have to outclass his 2020 performance. I'm not sure Jonas will be at his best, however.

 

[Rackham]

Collective madness is when people unironically declare Roglic the favorite to win the race. He will be buried deeper than Kendrick Lamar buried Drake by Pogacar.

Not like us! Or in this race, not like Pog.

He's not the number one favorite (that's Pog, obviously) but placing him lower than second favorite starts to appear like personal bias (especially when he gets placed lower than riders he always beats in GT's & one week races alike).

Vingegaard is massively overrated right now based on nothing but wishful thinking, Visma's public relations campaign & also the pre-Tour excitement from his fans & casual viewers who want a rematch of last year's TdF. But we know what he's like when he's had a less than optimal prep (Paris-Nice 2022, Vuelta week 1 last year when he was ill). There's simply no way a guy in ICU back in April is going to do what his fans imagine he'll do in July.

Meanwhile I'll unequivocally state Rog's greatest problem is A/surviving in the bunch during tense moments & B/Avoiding an off-day at a critical moment.

If he gets both right, he'll be in the mix in the top 3. That final ITT also suits him perfectly.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Collective madness is when people unironically declare Roglic the favorite to win the race. He will be buried deeper than Kendrick Lamar buried Drake by Pogacar.

Not like us! Or in this race, not like Pog.

Rogla is more like Swift in this story.

 

[Froome]

He's not the number one favorite (that's Pog, obviously) but placing him lower than second favorite starts to appear like personal bias (especially when he gets placed lower than riders he always beats in GT's & one week races alike).

Vingegaard is massively overrated right now based on nothing but wishful thinking, Visma's public relations campaign & also the pre-Tour excitement from his fans & casual viewers who want a rematch of last year's TdF. But we know what he's like when he's had a less than optimal prep (Paris-Nice 2022, Vuelta week 1 last year when he was ill). There's simply no way a guy in ICU back in April is going to do what his fans imagine he'll do in July.

Meanwhile I'll unequivocally state Rog's greatest problem is A/surviving in the bunch during tense moments & B/Avoiding an off-day at a critical moment.

If he gets both right, he'll be in the mix in the top 3. That final ITT also suits him perfectly.

Clearly you don't believe that "miracles" happens in cycling.

 

[Rackham]

Clearly you don't believe that "miracles" happens in cycling.

That's an occupational hazard of being a Rogla fan.

Seriously though, I predict the TdF will end with Vingegaard fans desperate for him to ride the Vuelta in August.

Why? Because IMO with everything taken into consideration & when reality finally kicks in, I think the Tour comes too soon for Vingegaard. Quote me on this later but I'll be amazed if Vingegaard hasn't already shipped some serious time (aka too much time) after the first ITT on stage 7. UAE will light-up stage 1 & everyone who's a bit rusty is going to suffer massively. As a Rog fan I'm concerned as well because fighting for position & being on the front during those cat 2 & 3 climbs will be essential.

I basically realize some people will be daydreaming of a Froome Finestre type scenario for Vingegaard in this Tour but I just don't think that'll happen. Miracles have limits... & I reckon that's what we'll see.

If I'm wrong... then so be it.

 

[Extinction]

Let's wait and see. I very much doubt Vingegaard would be starting if his numbers were not good. If he drops early then what you say is correct, but I don't think Visma would bring him if they expect him to fail.

 

[shadowrider]

That's an occupational hazard of being a Rogla fan.

Seriously though, I predict the TdF will end with Vingegaard fans desperate for him to ride the Vuelta in August.

Why? Because IMO with everything taken into consideration & when reality finally kicks in, I think the Tour comes too soon for Vingegaard. Quote me on this later but I'll be amazed if Vingegaard hasn't already shipped some serious time (aka too much time) after the first ITT on stage 7. UAE will light-up stage 1 & everyone who's a bit rusty is going to suffer massively. As a Rog fan I'm concerned as well because fighting for position & being on the front during those cat 2 & 3 climbs will be essential.

I basically realize some people will be daydreaming of a Froome Finestre type scenario for Vingegaard in this Tour but I just don't think that'll happen. Miracles have limits... & I reckon that's what we'll see.

If I'm wrong... then so be it.

It seems a rational analysis.

With what we know now, Roglic should be placed in second place. But that doesn't rule out the possibility that Pogacar will fade during the last week. So that Roglic can still fight for the final victory. But it's also possible Vingegaard also improves during the Tour, so that the battle will be between Pogacar and Vingegaard. Just like a crash or a break down can keep Roglic out of the top 5. Hopefully everything happens so that the GC changes regularly. Much more fun than a Pogacar demonstration.

 

[Rackham]

Let's wait and see. I very much doubt Vingegaard would be starting if his numbers were not good. If he drops early then what you say is correct, but I don't think Visma would bring him if they expect him to fail.

I've seen this repeated quite a bit over the past few days... & yet I think they absolutely would take him to the Tour even if he's "just" fit enough yet nowhere near where he was last year. They'd do it for sponsorship reasons & also sporting reasons as well because a few more weeks of racing could see his form improve quite a bit, i.e. for example in week 3. I also reckon Vingegaard himself wants to go (a bit like Rog back in 2022 when he asked to go the the Vuelta despite his suboptimal preparation).

Maybe Visma honestly think a TdF win is possible, maybe not. But Vingegaard can still get stage wins & he's their star rider. So he goes.

 

[Netserk]

He's not the number one favorite (that's Pog, obviously) but placing him lower than second favorite starts to appear like personal bias (especially when he gets placed lower than riders he always beats in GT's & one week races alike).

Vingegaard is massively overrated right now based on nothing but wishful thinking, Visma's public relations campaign & also the pre-Tour excitement from his fans & casual viewers who want a rematch of last year's TdF. But we know what he's like when he's had a less than optimal prep (Paris-Nice 2022, Vuelta week 1 last year when he was ill). There's simply no way a guy in ICU back in April is going to do what his fans imagine he'll do in July.

Meanwhile I'll unequivocally state Rog's greatest problem is A/surviving in the bunch during tense moments & B/Avoiding an off-day at a critical moment.

If he gets both right, he'll be in the mix in the top 3. That final ITT also suits him perfectly.

Rogla has also not had the best prep, and while Vingegaard is in an unknown shape he does have a higher ceiling. So if you expect Pogi to be very strong, I'd place my bet on the wild card.