Tour de France Expected shape of Vingegaard in the 2024 Tour de France

[Rob5091]

I hope for his sake, that this does not turn into a giant mistake.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Any professional athlete is „very fit“

Not if they had a horror crash a couple months before.

They also made reference to his training 'form', which may or may not translate well to an actual race. If not, they have Jorgenson as a backup option.

 

[Red Rick]

Because there is less oxygen in the atmosphere to be extracted and delivered to the exercising muscles than at sea level. My use of the expression "extraction" was probably misleading as it touches upon more than one component of the delivery chain. But the point is that the oxygen delivery system works akin to a bucket brigade and what the lungs in and of themselves contribute is generally not the limiting factor.

Sorry for the OT.

Haven't looked at this in ages, but aren't almost all variables basically gradients, meaning you don't really have hard bottleneck like limiting factor

 

[gregrowlerson]

Good idea for a thread

Good enough form (to contend for a podium spot) or not, the bigger issue might be the following hypothetical:

If Pogacar falls off his bike the immediate chances of him abandoning the race maybe 5%.

If Vingegaard falls off his bike the immediate chances of him abandoning the race maybe 50%.

And that higher percentage might be more related to mental issues than physical.

Vingegaard may also be a higher chance of crashing due to higher levels of nervousness (and it doesn't get much more tense than a packed Tour peloton at high speed), and lack of racing practice in a pro peloton.

I don't want Jonas Vingegaard to become another Andy Schleck.

 

[Extinction]

Good idea for a thread

Good enough form (to contend for a podium spot) or not, the bigger issue might be the following hypothetical:

If Pogacar falls off his bike the immediate chances of him abandoning the race maybe 5%.

If Vingegaard falls off his bike the immediate chances of him abandoning the race maybe 50%.

And that higher percentage might be more related to mental issues than physical.

Vingegaard may also be a higher chance of crashing due to higher levels of nervousness (and it doesn't get much more tense than a packed Tour peloton at high speed), and lack of racing practice in a pro peloton.

I don't want Jonas Vingegaard to become another Andy Schleck.

He's already beyond Schleck with 2 Tours against Pogacar in the bag. I reckon if he doesn't fall off he'll give him a right good fight. Let's hope so.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Not sure really. All we know is that his current form was good enough for JV to take him to the Tour, so he definitely isn't weak. Therefore I chose good enough to challenge but not at his best. His numbers must be quite good, he will make the race more interesting and Teddy nervous. However his training shortcomings should be visible at some point of the race (maybe later).

 

[Escarabajo]

Would you say that Simon Yates didn’t challenge for victory at the 2018 Giro?

And while we’re at it, would you say that Chris Froome was at his best before the final stages of that race?

Simon didn't fade away, he collapsed out of contention. He was 1 hour and 15 minutes off.

Froome was always in contention IMHO. That would be answer #4. You are right. I stand corrected. But #3 seems flawed.

 

[Escarabajo]

Pogi last year was good enough to challenge for the victory, but he faded/cracked in the third week.

Vingegaard in the Vuelta last year was a bit rusty to start with, but the strongest rider in the second half of the race.

Both were always in contention.

 

[Netserk]

Both were always in contention.

So? Option 3 and 4 in the poll don't require Vingegaard to be out of contention at any point.

 

[Escarabajo]

So? Option 3 and 4 in the poll don't require Vingegaard to be out of contention at any point.

#3 was not any of your cases though. #4 is fine.

 

[Extinction]

Vingagaard can't possibly be in the same shape he could have been with a smooth run this year, but he may be able to reach comparable form to the last two years, since a career benefits from the results in the legs. At the same time, the crash doubtless hindered him reaching an even higher level. But Pog seems to have upped his game, so will he now beat Jonas on last years' form if he reaches that level?

 

[Netserk]

#3 was not any of your cases though. #4 is fine.

#3 is the best fit for Pogi last year.

1) Good enough to challenge for the victory,

Looked like a winner by the second rest day.

2) but he will fade towards the end of the Tour.

He was at his worst in the third week and cracked in one of the stages.

 

[dazaau]

Others involved in that crash seem to be just squeaking into good form at the last minute, Jonas' injuries were far worse, and I think lung injuries are much worse than broken bones. I don't expect much from him but I suppose I will not be that surprised to be proved wrong.

 

[dennisdy]

I think he'll finish second, never looking like beating Pogacar (though able to go toe to toe with him on some of the mountain stages) but also pretty clearly better than everyone else.

Vingegaard will have a solid chance because Pogacar still wants to win every stage he can. This has hurt him in the final week for the past two years

 

[Escarabajo]

#3 is the best fit for Pogi last year.

1) Good enough to challenge for the victory,

Looked like a winner by the second rest day.

2) but he will fade towards the end of the Tour.

He was at his worst in the third week and cracked in one of the stages.

Fair enough. I see that my English understanding is playing a trick on me. My take was instantaneous rather than cronological. Like a Monday Morning Quarterback. If you will fade away towards the end you are not good to contend!

 

[stefank]

Ask me again about a month from now.....

 

[meat puppet]

Haven't looked at this in ages, but aren't almost all variables basically gradients, meaning you don't really have hard bottleneck like limiting factor

With gas exchange it's probably quite like that. See Peter Wagner's famous vo2 diagrams that plot both cardiac output and consumption of oxygen in the muscles for instance. Importantly re the discussion of lungs some oxygen always returns to the heart, even under max exercise and hypoxia (altitude).

That said, I'd say a person's max heart rate that still enables max or almost max diastolic filling (so excluding tachycardia, caffeine induced or otherwise) is pretty much set in stone. This in turn will cap max cardiac output from one direction. The other component ie stroke volume will be a bit more elastic but most seasoned pros will be close to their respective caps too.

On topic, whatever Vinge's form visma seem to trust he will not collapse mentally if he loses. A bit like UAE with Pog's suboptimal prep last year. Having his ass kicked didn't seem to kill him.

 

[SHAD0W93]

With gas exchange it's probably quite like that. See Peter Wagner's famous vo2 diagrams that plot both cardiac output and consumption of oxygen in the muscles for instance. Importantly re the discussion of lungs some oxygen always returns to the heart, even under max exercise and hypoxia (altitude).

That said, I'd say a person's max heart rate that still enables max or almost max diastolic filling (so excluding tachycardia, caffeine induced or otherwise) is pretty much set in stone. This in turn will cap max cardiac output from one direction. The other component ie stroke volume will be a bit more elastic but most seasoned pros will be close to their respective caps too.

On topic, whatever Vinge's form visma seem to trust he will not collapse mentally if he loses. A bit like UAE with Pog's suboptimal prep last year. Having his ass kicked didn't seem to kill him.

The issue is the lungs properly filling and expelling the co2. If they don’t do so, and it gets harder with exertion, the body tries to compensate but that could lead to issues the more he races.

 

[dazaau]

On topic, whatever Vinge's form visma seem to trust he will not collapse mentally if he loses. A bit like UAE with Pog's suboptimal prep last year. Having his ass kicked didn't seem to kill him.

I don't really buy the prep as the cause for last year. Would he have been better without it, I think yes, so it contributed. But what killed him was doing a great TT and then losing 1min 40 to Jonas after turning himself inside out to keep within 9 seconds for two weeks.

Peak pog would still have lost over a minute to Jonas in that TT.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I don't really buy the prep as the cause for last year. Would he have been better without it, I think yes, so it contributed. But what killed him was doing a great TT and then losing 1min 40 to Jonas after turning himself inside out to keep within 9 seconds for two weeks.

Peak pog would still have lost over a minute to Jonas in that TT.

I agree that Pog's biggest concern shouldn't be Loze stage (which could've been avoided under different circumstances) but the extraterrestrial ITT by Vingo the day before, when Pog wasn't bad but still lost almost 100 seconds (and even with optimal performance would've probably lost about half of that).

 

[Salvarani]

He is good and ready to go.

Dont think this crash has made any difference at all.

He has had enough time and made it with a few days to spare.

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

I don't understand why so many think he'll be at his best in week 3, more than the amount of people that think he'll fade. I've seen this a lot over the years that people expect cyclist that are coming from an injury to start rusty but get better the more the race moves on. Sounds great in theory but is there any basis for that? Because the recent examples (Pogacar 2023, Remco 2021) more hint towards the opposite, as in, because of the injury they didn't have time to develope that base that is necessary to last three weeks on a top level.

Like I wrote in the other thread, I think he'll be around his Paris-Nice 2023 level. So good enough to challenge for the podium but if Pogacar is in top shape (which is to be expected) he won't be challenging for first.

 

[topcat]

I think Vingo was sandbagging during his two wins (apart from that tt-eat your heart out Miguel). So if he can be close to his best, it should be enough to beat take that member Pog.
Having said that, given his injuries, I find it hard to believe Vingo will be close to his best. I just hope Vingo is good enough to bait Pog into following him and blowing up big time and for Landa to take the win he so richly deserves.

 

[Cookster15]

I don't really buy the prep as the cause for last year. Would he have been better without it, I think yes, so it contributed. But what killed him was doing a great TT and then losing 1min 40 to Jonas after turning himself inside out to keep within 9 seconds for two weeks.

Peak pog would still have lost over a minute to Jonas in that TT.

I know some disagree but I still think doing that great TT drained his reserves. If not for the prep interruption from his LBL crash he would have had better reserves and recovery. Hence Loze collapse would may not have happened. I mean Felix Gall?

 

[meat puppet]

I don't really buy the prep as the cause for last year. Would he have been better without it, I think yes, so it contributed. But what killed him was doing a great TT and then losing 1min 40 to Jonas after turning himself inside out to keep within 9 seconds for two weeks.

Peak pog would still have lost over a minute to Jonas in that TT.

My opinion before, during and after TDF 23 was the following: based on what Vinge did during TDF 22, Pog would lack the base to sustain consecutive days of full gas racing, and lose if Visma just keep applying the scorched earth tactics. The lack of base was due to the injury.

Now, Pog was first able to produce competitive performances, or even beat Vinge on some stages, that is, after reconsidering his strategy following the initial arse kicking surprise. But he could not sustain that level as the race went on, so I stand by that opinion. I think on day 1 he would not lose a minute in that TT.