First rest day poll - who will win the 2025 tour de France?

[Ilmaestro99]

Who will wear the maillot jaune and why? What did the first 10 days tell us?

 

[MJR]

Voted Pogi.

Jumbo looks great, but Vino won't be able to distance Pogi.
UAE looks just ok, but even Pogi with a disadvantage will be enough to deliver.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Thanks for contributing to the thread mate hopefully more people join in soon

 

[Breh]

Feels exactly the same as last year? Vingegaard is able to follow the (half-assed) attempts from Pogacar on the shorter hills.
Last year Vingegaard has a 1:15 deficit going into the second week, this year he has a 1:19 deficit. Vingegaard lost it on the Galibier last year and in the ITT this year.

Visma has a stronger team now but they won't be able to use it to their advantage.

I'll be voting Vino.

 

[ontheroad]

The poll should read ‘who will finish third’.

 

[CyclistAbi]

I voted for Primož Roglič.

 

[Red Rick]

I voted for Primož Roglič.

I was so close to posting this first but I would ofcourse forget the proper spelling with all the drunk letters.

I too voted for Primoz Roglic.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

To me it looks like a repeat of last years Podium.
That can't have happend very often before.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Poor Jorgenson, he‘s behind Enricky on ilmaestro‘s list of favorites.

 

[MarioeTheo]

Pogi!

 

[SHAD0W93]

Pogacar but by 3-4 minutes now instead of the 2-3 like I thought before the Tour.

 

[Potomac]

As an EF fan I am required to vote for Healy.

 

[veganrob]

I voted for Primož Roglič.

Of course.

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

Pogacar will win, but I voted for Jonas because it's what I want to happen.

P.S. How does Roglic have any votes, and why does he have more than Remco?

 

[Miha81]

P.S. How does Roglic have any votes, and why does he have more than Remco?

He will surprise UAE and TJV with long range raid in high montains and the just manage to hold on until Paris

 

[Cookster15]

Thanks for the poll. I am picking Pogacar by 3 to 4 minutes. I am surprised at the support for Roglic ? I like him but can't see it.

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

He will surprise UAE and TJV with long range raid in high montains and the just manage to hold on until Paris

...I mean, I think Jonas has a chance, so I guess my belief isn't any less ridiculous.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

To me it looks like a repeat of last years Podium.
That can't have happend very often before.

This happened in 2001-02 (Armstrong, Ullrich, Beloki) and 1978-79 (Hinault, Zoetemelk, Agostinho). If we include shuffled orders, then you can add 1991-92 (Indurain, Bugno, Chiappucci with the latter two switching places the second year).

 

[Devil's Elbow]

P.S. How does Roglic have any votes, and why does he have more than Remco?

I am surprised at the support for Roglic ? I like him but can't see it.

Have people still not figured out that a significant subset of forumites does the very annoying thing of voting for who they want to win rather than who they think will win in these polls?

Sadly, the only valid option to vote for post-TT is Pogacar.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Vinge should have been ahead after the first 10 stages to have a chance against Pog. The rest of the field are GC placement riders.

 

[Miha81]

...I mean, I think Jonas has a chance, so I guess my belief isn't any less ridiculous.

Bar any accident it will be between the two "aliens". It is clear that they can gap rest of the field easily. But we can still hope for underdog moment that most likely won't come

 

[Cookster15]

Vinge should have been ahead after the first 10 stages to have a chance against Pog

I am still burned by the 2023 Tour and worry that 2024 wasn't repeatable even though all logic says Pog should be even harder to beat this year. Lets see how the MTT goes.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Halfway through the race we still haven't seen a proper climb! The picture of GC strength is not full. Obviously the mutants can distance the rest with ease (we saw it on small climbs already) but how they will fare against each other in high mountains is still unknown (same applies to other GC guys).

So far, Vingo was able to cover Pogi's two strong attacks so his morale is good. OTOH in the most important GC test so far he was crushed by the Slovenian and is losing by significant 1'17''. Being able to hold Pogacar's wheel is one thing but dropping him is another and this gap forces him to do it (and favours Pogi in the GC). Good for Vingo that Visma should have an advantage in high mountains vs weakened UAE (3 very strong climbing doms and Jorge can be used as a bait). During a couple of mountain stages they will definitely perform an all-out attack on Pogi. However, during the first test (Hautacam) Pogi could be the one to attack hard.

My verdict. There will be some interesting duels in the mountains and both guys should be rather close in performance level. Vingo won't be able to overcome this gap and Pogi may also counter him hard.

 

[Red Rick]

Have people still not figured out that a significant subset of forumites does the very annoying thing of voting for who they want to win rather than who they think will win in these polls?

Sadly, the only valid option to vote for post-TT is Pogacar.

There are all sorts of reasons to vote. If the poll 'should' be 100% Pogacar then what's the point of the poll? I think everyone knows he's the favorite

 

[Rackham]

Have people still not figured out that a significant subset of forumites does the very annoying thing of voting for who they want to win rather than who they think will win in these polls?

Sadly, the only valid option to vote for post-TT is Pogacar.

It's called democracy. I won't be coerced into voting for the mainstream parties who don't represent my Roglicism ideology.

So I did my part.