First Timers in GC Top 10 - Grand Tours

[Asero831]

In the past 6 years, there had been more than five first-timers every year.
2012 gives us 11 names, last year was the lowest with only 4 debutants.
Ion Izaguirre and G. Thomas were projected to make a leap last year but were unable to do so because of crashes and injuries.
How will 2018 shape up?

2017 - (4) - Zakarin, Poels, Woods, Lopez
2016 - (7) - Yates Bros, Jungels, Dela Cruz, Formolo, Atapuma, Bennett
2015 - (8) - Chaves, Landa, Dumoulin, Meintjes, Amador, Frank, Geniez, Trofimov
2014 - (6) - Aru, Bardet, D. Martin, Barguil, D. Caruso, Kelderman
2013 - (6) - Quintana, Majka, Fuglsang, Betancur, Navarro, Niemiec
2012 - (11) - Pinot, Uran, TJVG, Henao, Rolland, Ten Dam, Konig, Talansky, de Gendt, Intxausti, Brajkovic

I can only include 10 names in the poll.
Those that did not make are as follows: Kangert, Dennis, Ulissi, Alaphilippe, Felline, Costa, etc


Those active riders who had their first Top 10 more than five years ago are:
Froome (2011)
Kruijswijk (2011)
Mollema (2011)
Nieve (2011)
Monfort (2011)
Siutsou (2011)
Porte (2010)
Roche (2010)
LL Sanchez (2010)
Nibali (2009)
Kreuziger (2009)
Deignan (2009)
Pozzovivo (2008)
Cunego (2004)
Pellizotti (2003)
Valverde (2003)

 

[Pantani_lives]

That's hard to predict. I voted Roglic and Soler. They certainly have the potential, but they might have to sacrifice themselves or focus on one week races or a stage win. Wellens and Teuns will probably focus on stages, Kwiatkowski will have to work.

 

[Asero831]

I voted for Caparaz, someone from Movistar will Top 10 in Giro.

 

[jaylew]

I only voted for Bernal.

 

[The Hegelian]

Cool thread - because it's such an unknown until it happens. Bernal for me as well. Tempted for Soler and Roglic....

 

[Kazistuta]

Carapaz for the giro, Buchmann for the tour/vuelta and Bernal for the vuelta.

Agree with Pantani_lives about Roglic and Soler, they will soon top10/top5 in a GT, but not this year with seemingly other agendas.

 

[Asero831]

For the past 6 years, an average of 7 cyclists made their debut in the Top 10.
And as of now, we can hardly pick 4 riders to Top 10 this year. It will be fun.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Carapaz for the Giro, Latour and Roglic for the Tour and Bernal for the Vuelta. But I actually also think that Buchmann will get a top 10. And if Teuns does the Vuelta, I think he will top 10 as well.

 

[SafeBet]

Hard to predict. Among the ones not included in the poll I think Hirt could get a top10 in the Giro.

 

[Gigs_98]

Patrick Konrad told the media his goal for the giro is a top ten. Tbh though, I don't think he'll be able to do that. The gc field has quite a good depth, at least for giro standards

 

[axl]

Bernal on the Vuelta, Buchmann, Latour & Roglic on the Tour.

I can't see Carapaz or Wellens doing it on this Giro, except if there is a LOT of DNF, or more probably if they manage to be on several 10+ minutes breakaways. I think Dennis has more chance than them to manage a top10 in Italy.

Kwiato, Vuillermoz and Soler will have to work too much on the Tour to expect a top10. Buchmann, Latour or Roglic could but only 1 or 2 from them depending on the circumstances. I think Rui Costa could also be in the mix.

 

[Red Rick]

Nibali was officially in 2008 after Sella got scrapped from the list.

We'll see. I don't follow most too closely, but Bernal should make it with his eyes closed.

 

[staubsauger]

The most likely one is Ciccone who might finish 7-9 at the Giro d'Italia while winning the mountains jersey. Yet, he's not even in the poll.

Bernal has great chances later this year at the Vuelta as well ofc.

 

[Jspear]

Bernal is the most likely. I picked Roglic as well.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I voted Bernal (Vuelta), Carapaz (Giro) and Roglic (Tour).

Bernal is incredible, everyone knows that, so he makes the top-10. Carapaz could make it with a little luck and some great legs. Roglic says he doesnt target the GC, but I believe in him more than I do in Steven K.

I wanted to vote Soler as well, but he isn't doing the Giro or Vuelta, so he isn't coming close this year, but will make it next year, I think. Buchmann could also top-10 in the Tour already this year, I like him very much. Latour could also easily make the top-10 i July. Dont believe in the rest.

 

[Squire]

Voted Bernal for the Vuelta, possibly Latour for one of Tour or Vuelta, and Carapaz for the Giro. I also think Enric Mas might top 10 the Vuelta. Ciccone has a chance in the Giro.

 

[Koronin]

I voted for Latour although no idea if he's ready or not.

For Soler without doing the Giro and the team he's with it would be virtually impossible for him to top 10 in the Tour or Vuelta as Movistar is already sending Valverde, Landa, and Quintana to both of those races. For Soler to get a top in either of those would almost mean Movistar would be putting 4 riders in the final GC top 10 and that is highly unlikely to happen. As much as I would have loved to have voted for Soler I just can't see it happening for him this year.

 

[barmaher]

Geraint Thomas.

 

[Squire]

Re:

Geraint Thomas.

Never thought about him. Add him to my list. He's in my CQ team, so I'm obviously a big believer in George Hincapie for the Tour top ten.

 

[Netserk]

Re: Re:

Geraint Thomas.

Never thought about him. Add him to my list. He's in my CQ team, so I'm obviously a big believer in George Hincapie for the Tour top ten.

It's actually funny that Hincapie's best in a GT GC is 1 spot better than Thomas'.

 

[PremierAndrew]

It's weird to think Thomas has never top 10'd especially when you consider he was one of the top favourites for last year's Giro before the blockhaus moto got involved

 

[staubsauger]

Re:

It's weird to think Thomas has never top 10'd especially when you consider he was one of the top favourites for last year's Giro before the blockhaus moto got involved

He certainly wasn't outside of the British tabloids for the reason you just stated yourself!

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

It's weird to think Thomas has never top 10'd especially when you consider he was one of the top favourites for last year's Giro before the blockhaus moto got involved

He certainly wasn't outside of the British tabloids for the reason you just stated yourself!

He was more fancied than Dumo before the start, after Quintana Nibs and Pinot

 

[staubsauger]

Re: Re:

It's weird to think Thomas has never top 10'd especially when you consider he was one of the top favourites for last year's Giro before the blockhaus moto got involved

He certainly wasn't outside of the British tabloids for the reason you just stated yourself!

He was more fancied than Dumo before the start, after Quintana Nibs and Pinot

Like I said, in the British tabloids!

Dumoulin actually already had a Vuelta top 10, while wearing the leaders jersey until the penultimate day, to his name.

Thomas hasn't even won the Tour of Switzerland like Giorgio Furlan! I'm pretty sure Furlan wasn't one of the hot favorites for the 1994 Giro d'Italia either.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Thomas might very well never top-10 in a GT.