For News: Who will win the TDU?

[Jukebox]

It should be whoever wins the Willunga stage as the sprinters who grabbed all of the bonus seconds in the flat stages will be distanced enough by the winner. Though EBH is a good guess, he can do well on both terrains.

 

[Anonymous]

edit: I dont want to be in the news

 

[Afrank]

EBH could definitely win it, if he wanted to. He can compete with the sprinters and even do well on the hills, plus he's a good time trialer which would work in his favor if he tries a solo break.

If valverde has good form then he can probably win on willunga, but since he hasn't been in a race for the last couple years we don't really know where his form is at, and he might be trying to peak for the classics or one of the grand tours.

I think it will be Gerrans, he showed good form in the road race championships, and greenedge will be working hard to win the race, it looks like he is their best bet to do that.

 

[TourOfSardinia]

ACF for the win.

You never know he could be in the starting lists - since I don't see the rosters published yet (at least Steve at steephill hasn't got them)

 

[Tank Engine]

I've got to go with EBH on this one. He's a good enough sprinter to pick up bonuses and a good enough climber to be at the front at the top of Willunga.

Sky riding for Rogers Meh , he would be a good bet for between 11th and 20th in that case.

 

[Anonymous]

You never know he could be in the starting lists - since I don't see the rosters published yet (at least Steve at steephill hasn't got them)

im a bit worried about steve,. he seems to have vanished..

startlist on cycling fever, and on the official site as well
http://www.cyclingfever.com/startlist.html

 

[gustienordic]

Michael Rogers - considering how strong he looked at the back end of last year and also had a decent showing in the Australian National RR.
One of the classiest riders in the race.

Michael Rodgers or Simon Gerrans, both are in good form.

 

[Swabian Lass]

I can't believe that Sky will be riding forRodgers. That has to be a diversion.

I'd say Valverde, but having no idea what form he'll come back in, I'm going with EBH.

 

[Froome19]

Its hard to say so early on in the season who's going good and who isn't. Yet you have to fancy Gerrans with Greenedge being super motivated to get a result in their first stage race and it's their home race and the fact that on the basis of his victory in the nationals he's evidently on good form (something we can't really say for the other riders)
I think van hummel, feillu can also gain time in first stages and then stay on wilunga. Yet valverde has to be one of the favorites seeing that he has the best climbing pedigree of any of the riders yet whever he will come with any sembelance of good form after his lack of competitive races is highly in doubt.
Watch out for Michael mathews i believe he can do even better than his perfomance last year.
Yet the sprinting trio of pettachi, greipel and boassen hagen all must be considered favorites if they can limit their losses on Willunga

 

[maltiv]

I think van hummel, feillu can also gain time in first stages and then stay on wilunga.

If Van Hummel doesn't lose minutes on Willunga I'll eat my computer.

 

[Jamsque]

EBH

But the REAL winner will be the noble people of Australia.

 

[Anonymous]

Juan Jose Cobo in his first race for Movistar.

Valverde will work for him in return for services later in the season!

 

[Froome19]

If Van Hummel doesn't lose minutes on Willunga I'll eat my computer.

I meant feillu won't lost minutes on wilunga I think van hummel can do well in the sprints though yet youre probably right that he will lose to much to be much of a threat gc

 

[boomcie]

Fan favorite Boomcie stated that: "he just wants to feature in the article."

To increase his chances, he cleverly used EBH, Simon Gerrans and Willunga Hill in one smashing sentence.

Surprisingly, granny favorite Amsterhammer responded by making a gratuitous remark about juvenile behaviour.

 

[Captain_Cavman]

It's a bit strange a moderator starting a thread that duplicates an existing thread. Don't they normally close the thread when that happens?

Anyway on the other thread that we must now pretend doesn't exist, I proved conclusively and without a shadow of a doubt that Herr Greipel will win. I can't be bothered to go through the logic again but I did prove his victory scientifically using mathmatical modelling.

 

[greatking88]

Edvald Boasson Hagen for the win. And the reason he'll win; He's the boss And you can quote me on that

 

[Spider1964]

Heinrich Haussler FTW.

Capable sprinter, won't lose too much time up Willunga and judging by his ride in the Aussie Nats appears motivated (and lean).

 

[badboyberty]

Haussler will get GC. He will get a big time bonus by winning in Stirling and then finish same time as the winner at Willunga, potentially picking up some more bonus seconds in the sprint. On top of a couple of bonifications at intermediate sprints and maybe at the North Adelaide finish he'll have GC in the bag.

 

[Tuarts]

matt lloyd will encapsulate himself in a weird series of events leading to overall victory

This x100000000

Gerrans, EBH, LLS, Valverde all favourites as well as any sprinter who has the form. A sprinter with a smattering of form this early will do a lot better on Wilunga Hill than if the climbers/puncheurs were in form themselves like they would be later in the season.

 

[Martin318is]

It's a bit strange a moderator starting a thread that duplicates an existing thread. Don't they normally close the thread when that happens?

Anyway on the other thread that we must now pretend doesn't exist, I proved conclusively and without a shadow of a doubt that Herr Greipel will win. I can't be bothered to go through the logic again but I did prove his victory scientifically using mathmatical modelling.

They are two different 'types' of threads. In the other thread, everything is normal as the per the forum and conversation is contained in that thread.

In THIS thread, member's leave comments that have the potential to be incorporated into an article on the main site. The thread was created specifically for this purpose.

 

[greenedge]

I think with the new hilltop finish on Wilunga ( which is gone up twice ) will change the dynamics of the race. Last year it was won by the sprinters screwing up ( letting Meyer gain so much time ).
This year in my view shall be the exception. The sprinters shall have to struggle tooth and nail to win.
I see the sprinters that will go for stages as Sutton/ EBH, Goss, Renshaw, Haussler, Bennati, Greipel and Petacchi. However the only ones that could challenge FTW out of those are Goss and EBH ( but they have teammates in Gerrans and Rogers who could win as well )
Gerrans for me looks to be the favourite and is therefore my pick. He is in good form, even for an Aussie who try get their form off to a good start of the year. That advantage of being the best Aussie ( at the moment, along with Durbridge ) will see him triumph over the likes of Valverde ( who lacks race sharpness but is still talented ) Hesjedal ( who has a good teammate in Haas ), Ballan who will want to take advantage of being leader whilst he can and LLS if he bothers to sprint ( since he will not drop anyone )
Other people who could contend are Matt Lloyd, if he can go on the early slopes of Wilunga and get an advantage, Rogers who could launch an attack ( since he can't sprint ) and my two darkhorses, Luca Paolini and Thomas De Gendt who have shown at the Italian classics/ Paris Nice and Alpe D Huez that they are solid and enterprising.
I would say Ben Hermans if he were not injured.

Sry for it being so long ( just pick out any good bits and the fact i think Gerrans will win )

I think someone form the UniSa team can get a win in a stage as well.

 

[the asian]

Gerrans for the GC win, because of his good form and high motivation for his team Greenedge. Greipel to win a couple of stages.

 

[greenedge]

Its hard to say so early on in the season who's going good and who isn't. Yet you have to fancy Gerrans with Greenedge being super motivated to get a result in their first stage race and it's their home race and the fact that on the basis of his victory in the nationals he's evidently on good form (something we can't really say for the other riders)
I think van hummel, feillu can also gain time in first stages and then stay on wilunga. Yet valverde has to be one of the favorites seeing that he has the best climbing pedigree of any of the riders yet whever he will come with any sembelance of good form after his lack of competitive races is highly in doubt.
Watch out for Michael mathews i believe he can do even better than his perfomance last year.
Yet the sprinting trio of pettachi, greipel and boassen hagen all must be considered favorites if they can limit their losses on Willunga

Van Hummel was Lanterne rouge. I doubt Feillu will be in good enough form ( he will probably want to be peaking for M-SR ).
Matthews will probably have to work for Renshaw though it might be sensible for Rabo to protect him on Wilunga.
You forgot Goss.

 

[greenedge]

ACF for the win.

I nominate Greenedge in the literal sense and the un-literal.

 

[AussieGoddess]

I do hope that Gerrains wins it for Greenedge.

Having a cycling team in Australia has been such a long time coming, to be able to start the season with a win in the first World Tour race, after triumphing in both the Australian Road Race and Time Trial would be fantastic for them.