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Not really, but you'd imagine ASO would want an absolute minimum of time trial mileage considering Bardet's performances in 2016 and 2017. He has a real shot to win and the French would obviously want that. And under 35 or 40 kilometres absolutely isn't solid for a race such as Tour de France, historically always the race where you had to be the most all-round to win out of the GTs.Alexandre B. said:
Good points all around particularly considering both riders and course as factors. In the foreseeable future, forobvious reasons, there will be little ITT in order to keep Bardet competitive. In a Luxembourg '92 ITT he would lose seven minutes. So yes, it helps to be French 
. Or Italian/Giro, Spaniard/Vuelta...
Before looking at the next generation, let's consider that Pinot and Bardet are just entering their prime. I don't think that they have reached their ceiling. After all, both are having their best GT ever this year: best GT because being in the mix for the win until the very end, not minutes back...that's progress. No Ninja Attack ala Bardet last year or sucking wheels ala Pinot '14. They have improved, they are very close.
Latour shows great all-around skills, Gaudu has yet to breakthrough. It's risky to predict right now, and I hope that the hype train doesn't hurt him, but what I have seen of Gaudu so far makes me very optimistic.
. Or Italian/Giro, Spaniard/Vuelta...Before looking at the next generation, let's consider that Pinot and Bardet are just entering their prime. I don't think that they have reached their ceiling. After all, both are having their best GT ever this year: best GT because being in the mix for the win until the very end, not minutes back...that's progress. No Ninja Attack ala Bardet last year or sucking wheels ala Pinot '14. They have improved, they are very close.
Latour shows great all-around skills, Gaudu has yet to breakthrough. It's risky to predict right now, and I hope that the hype train doesn't hurt him, but what I have seen of Gaudu so far makes me very optimistic.
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He's talented, but a sprinter-type rider. He's an ex track rider though...RedheadDane said:
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I think you need to be French in order to be considered the best French hope.
janraaskalt said:
I think you need to be French in order to be considered the best French hope.
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As you saw today, we have a big structural problem in France: time trialling.
There's a reasonable hope Sivakov will take the passport, as he lives in France since his early childhood.janraaskalt said:
As you saw today, we have a big structural problem in France: time trialling.
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He is half French (I believe his mother is French) and he speaks the language fluently.
RedheadDane said:janraaskalt said:
I think you need to be French in order to be considered the best French hope.
He is half French (I believe his mother is French) and he speaks the language fluently.
Making up that final minute is a gulf for Bardet no matter how matter how much Froome is booed or not shown on the coverage ! The French are getting closer but in a way also not getting closer. As Andy Schleck found out, it is very hard to win a GT these days without being a pretty good TT rider. Or you need a super strong team for the mountains like Astana used to have and your rivals have have a fairly weak team.
Not Bardet. That was a horrible TT. And that was short. The Tour will probably put longer ones in the future.
The last time that I saw a big transformation from a bad TT to a good TT for a GC contender was Basso. And you all know how that ended up.
The last time that I saw a big transformation from a bad TT to a good TT for a GC contender was Basso. And you all know how that ended up.
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Meanwhile, it's been a fair few years of low time-trialling, and bar for Alpe d'Huez and the Ventoux running man it's pretty much been a procession. I don't think it being a closer procession made it any less of a procession. So we might see Dumoulin be given a shot. I think ASO care more about an entertaining race than a French winner, and Dumoulin might be game.
I don't see Bardet taking chunks out of the top climbers (Quintana, Froome, Nibali, Porte, Pinot, Aru, Landa, Uran...) in the mountains. Well, maybe off Porte and Pinot down the mountains if ASO want to keep at that until someone dies. So unless everything goes spectacularly well for him it's really complicated for Bardet to win take it even on a parcours like this year's, where he's on the podium by a second.Valv.Piti said:
Meanwhile, it's been a fair few years of low time-trialling, and bar for Alpe d'Huez and the Ventoux running man it's pretty much been a procession. I don't think it being a closer procession made it any less of a procession. So we might see Dumoulin be given a shot. I think ASO care more about an entertaining race than a French winner, and Dumoulin might be game.
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Sorry guys , but my feeling is that we'll see more designs like this one. That's where the money is.
ASO is a business. If they cared about the French public, they would stop the Grand Depart whereever-pays-the-most and stop neglecting half of France, including cycling-loving regions. French stage wins are great, a French contender is always good, but TV ratings (and TV rights) are everything. They want the gaps to be small for as long as possible. If it wasn't for the crap incident, the long ITT would have settled the Giro early. I don't see a lot of ITT coming back anytime soon.carton said:
Sorry guys
, but my feeling is that we'll see more designs like this one. That's where the money is.
Saddest thing is TV ratings aren't even up with these crap routes and close races, last time I checked some (allegedly incomplete) data.
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If Froome can't sustain 6.2W/Kg anymore, a long TT won't kill the race, particularly if peak Quintana (most likely), Porte or Landa can. Meanwhile it might give all of them a reason to attack if Dumoulin was in yellow.
Something else to try out, as 8 man teams are clearly not going to do the trick. I think ASO are savvier than they let on sometimes.
ASO is a business that gets a big share of it revenues out of the French public, mind you. Yet the stadium in Marseille was empty, even though Bardet was mathematically in it.Tonton said:ASO is a business. If they cared about the French public, they would stop the Grand Depart whereever-pays-the-most and stop neglecting half of France, including cycling-loving regions. French stage wins are great, a French contender is always good, but TV ratings (and TV rights) are everything. They want the gaps to be small for as long as possible. If it wasn't for the crap incident, the long ITT would have settled the Giro early. I don't see a lot of ITT coming back anytime soon.
Sorry guys
If Froome can't sustain 6.2W/Kg anymore, a long TT won't kill the race, particularly if peak Quintana (most likely), Porte or Landa can. Meanwhile it might give all of them a reason to attack if Dumoulin was in yellow.
Something else to try out, as 8 man teams are clearly not going to do the trick. I think ASO are savvier than they let on sometimes.
Crap routes are not only due to low TT kilometers.
They can give Quintana and Bardet a better shot even with more TT kilometers. Let's take a hypothetical case that they put a long ITT and Froome and Dumoulin put every mountain goat at at least 3-4 minutes. That will give them more freedom and I bet the race will see more attacking and less marking from the dominant time trailers.
However, the condition will be that better mountain stages will have to be designed as well. My 2 cents.
They can give Quintana and Bardet a better shot even with more TT kilometers. Let's take a hypothetical case that they put a long ITT and Froome and Dumoulin put every mountain goat at at least 3-4 minutes. That will give them more freedom and I bet the race will see more attacking and less marking from the dominant time trailers.
However, the condition will be that better mountain stages will have to be designed as well. My 2 cents.
The Giro seems to be quite happy with designing 90s style routes and force the climbers to race like Pantani 1994! A potential Landa versus Dumoulin battle at the corsa rosa looks promising IMHO.
Basso won one Giro with a strong TT. In 2010 his TT was pretty average again.
Like I said, Ricco finished a TT loaded Giro in second place. His TT was horrible. The cobra fell in the hilly TT, even lost time up to Plan de Corones. Yet, he wasn't much more aggressive than Bardet has been in the recent two years. Simoni never had an excellent TT in his pocket when he won his two Giro editions. Cuneo was absolutely horrible in the TT, but defeated Popovych with great team tactics.
It's about competition. In a Giro against Aru, Bardet absolutely would be able to win. No matter how bad his TT his. You need to anticipate and grab your chance. This year he would've been without any chance at the Giro. Last year he likely would have won it. Leipheimer would have won the 2012 Tour in 2008.
Basso won one Giro with a strong TT. In 2010 his TT was pretty average again.
Like I said, Ricco finished a TT loaded Giro in second place. His TT was horrible. The cobra fell in the hilly TT, even lost time up to Plan de Corones. Yet, he wasn't much more aggressive than Bardet has been in the recent two years. Simoni never had an excellent TT in his pocket when he won his two Giro editions. Cuneo was absolutely horrible in the TT, but defeated Popovych with great team tactics.
It's about competition. In a Giro against Aru, Bardet absolutely would be able to win. No matter how bad his TT his. You need to anticipate and grab your chance. This year he would've been without any chance at the Giro. Last year he likely would have won it. Leipheimer would have won the 2012 Tour in 2008.
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In his prime Simoni was able to limit his losses in the TTs, at least in the Giro when he had home field advantage.
Honchar was his main rival, besides Simoni, not Popovych who finished 5th on gc.staubsauger said:
In his prime Simoni was able to limit his losses in the TTs, at least in the Giro when he had home field advantage.
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Don't forget about Contador and Rasmussen beating Evans in 2007 despite over 110kms of TT and Evans TTing like a freight train.staubsauger said:
Against USPS, even Pantani couldn't do it. Against Sky, no one has been able to do it. Super-teams rule. A super-team with a strong ITT leader is tough to beat. Against a not-so-great Sky/Froome, AG2R had a strong team; so did Movistar in years past: but at some point you have to take chances...put it all on the line...
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