Teams & Riders Froome Talk Only

[hektoren]

Oh my... what... wait... are you sayiong that statistically the chances of a GT winner being clean is extremely remote? Say it ain't so....



No, it's absolutely not faith, it's exactly analysis. Anyone saying they know he's clean is using faith.

This is like hektoren who think that because every human is an individual you can't look at the statistics. But Hektoren is playing games as he fully well understands that the chances of Froome being clean is both statistically unlikely as knowing fully well that his career path is statistically of the trodden path. Hektoren smply rootd for his fan crush as he does not want analysis (which he clearly is capable of) to tar a rider he likes.

And yeah, there are other statistics at play (Riders and doctors comes to mind... or managers lieing flat out about medical things). But Froome is an individual, so even though everything is raising blood-red flags, it's most likely he's clean

You misrepresent what I said. Of course you can look at statistics, but it's just plain wrong to make assumptions about individuals today based on historical statistics.
And NO, I don't know that the chance of Froome riding clean is statistically unlikely. I simply like to weigh known facts and not listen to idle speculation and wild rumors reported as fact by some of the more inspired Clinic-dwellers.

In my town lives a local celebrity, known from television. He's rumored to be a heavy drinker, as he sometimes "smells of alcohol" and is walking very unsteadily. He's even been observed in public seemingly comatose. These rumors are stated as fact by people who don't know know either him or the real fact: The actor has a very poorly controlled diabetes, and has had episodes of diabetic ketoacidosis, bordering on diabetic coma. He reeks of acetone, not alcohol! Even though he has told about his medical condition in local newspapers, there are still nay-sayers who wants him to be an alcoholic, because it fits their prejudiced opinion of celebrities at large, and thus the rumors persist to this day.

I most certainly don't have a fan crush on Froome. I just hope he is riding clean, and without hope I wouldn't bother watching cycling.

 

[FrankChickens]

My sentiment, exactly.

As a matter of interest, can anyone confirm the Biopassport rules when you're travelling outside of Europe and the states? My thinking is there would be no framework in place for an out of competition Euro Pro to go for UCI sanctioned blood screening - probably not in SA, and even less likely in Kenya.

We regularly get a summer crop of Euro Pros basing themselves in Cape Town for off season base miles. Nice weather, beaches, good lifestyle and great roads for training on.

They typically don't compete in our local racing - mostly we just see them riding around the peninsula. One of the perks must be the lack of OOC testing at the bottom of Africa.

 

[Zam_Olyas]

Frankchickens, in the interest of neutrality i have to ask, Are you sore that a son of Africa abandoned ship and left to ride for the english?

 

[Von Mises]

Oh my... what... wait... are you sayiong that statistically the chances of a GT winner being clean is extremely remote? Say it ain't so....

You know, on October 23 1929 all experts thought that markets can only go up:" statistically the chances of market going down is extremely remote."

Or, on 6 June 1990 day when Gianni Bugno won his first Giro, experts said: "statistically the chances of a GT winner being EPO fuelled is extremely remote."

 

[FrankChickens]

Frankchickens, in the interest of neutrality i have to ask, Are you sore that a son of Africa abandoned ship and left to ride for the english?

Not really, Froome is Kenyan anyways. I'm half English myself on my mom's side and lived in London for eight years.

Actually for all his gawky riding Froome comes across in interviews as fairly decent. I don't have anything personal against him.

More than anything I think it's the Sky 'clean team' fakery, boring motorcade riding style and similarly monotonous PR machine behind it all that grates me.

 

[Zam_Olyas]

Not really, Froome is Kenyan anyways. I'm half English myself on my mom's side and lived in London for eight years.

Actually for all his gawky riding Froome comes across in interviews as fairly decent. I don't have anything personal against him.

More than anything I think it's the Sky 'clean team' fakery, boring motorcade riding style and similarly monotonous PR machine behind it all that grates me.

Fair enough, i ask that question before you were accuse of being sore.

 

[FrankChickens]

Fair enough, i ask that question before you were accuse of being sore.

No worries, maybe he's clean after all. Maybe they taught him using his arms as wings was a fools errand and GT glory was the natural byproduct. Doesn't seem likely though.

 

[SeriousSam]

I simply like to weigh known facts and not listen to idle speculation and wild rumors reported as fact by some of the more inspired Clinic-dwellers.

This is statistics. You condition the probability that Froome is clean on known facts. You do need to make assumptions about how likely these facts would be under the doping scenario and under the clean scenario, but that's necessary for confessions and positives or other very damning facts, such as the following, as well:

- transferring 9000€ to Fuentes
- breaking the Alpe ascent record

reasonable, and justifiable assumptions here would be that both are likely if you're doping and very unlikely if you're clean. which is why, knowing these facts, it was rational to believe pantani and frank schleck were doping.

 

[Froome19]

You're a smart guy.

You're telling me for 3 years he rode without knowing he had it?

With all these symptoms?

http://www.nhs.uk/Conditions/schistosomiasis/Pages/Symptoms.aspx

And didn't know it?


And I thought you said the UCI conducted a drug test and found it? Wouldn't they have found it earlier?

More conspiracy theories on behalf of the Skybots.

3 Years? You are a smart guy, where do you see 3 years of not knowing about Bilharzia from the time it was diagnosed in December 2010 from when he got it.

He knew he had it then, just lingered in his system for having it first in 2010..

The UCI conducted the drug test in Kenya and found it in December 2010.
Stop pretending to be dense..

 

[Froome19]

Team Marginal Gains didn't think to put him in a wind tunnel until this year though, which is pretty surprising since that's been part of teams' TT training for years. Obviously whatever they used instead was working. But I assume the wind tunnel was one of the eight million things they hyped about themselves at inception, since Marc Madiot drew attention to the fact that he didn't have to put out a press release about using them.

I agree for some reason he only got round it this year, very strange, this is all i can find about it:

Despite being the Olympic bronze medallist in the discipline and runner-up to Wiggins in both long time-trials in this year’s Tour, Froome has never tested his position and bike in a wind tunnel. In time-trial terms, he has been operating in the Stone Age, with elbows out as if riding a scooter.
Froome described his riding style as “rugged” with ample room for improvement, even if the time trials will not be as decisive on next year’s Tour. “I’m making a lot of headway but there are so many things I can improve on,” he said.

 

[Netserk]

I agree for some reason he only got round it this year, very strange, this is all i can find about it:

Given that quote it puzzles me that people can state this:

Sorry, but Froome rides for Sky and has been riding for Sky for close to 4 years now. I guarantee you that his technique does not hinder him whatsoever.

Bull!
His TT-posture and ride (little sideways-motion, stable torso) is extremely efficient and correct. You can't really blame him for resembling an elk, skinny, long-limbed with elbows, knees and scapulas sticking out at all angles. He's 186cm, 67-68 kgs!

 

[Dear Wiggo]

As a matter of interest, can anyone confirm the Biopassport rules when you're travelling outside of Europe and the states? My thinking is there would be no framework in place for an out of competition Euro Pro to go for UCI sanctioned blood screening - probably not in SA, and even less likely in Kenya.

We regularly get a summer crop of Euro Pros basing themselves in Cape Town for off season base miles. Nice weather, beaches, good lifestyle and great roads for training on.

They typically don't compete in our local racing - mostly we just see them riding around the peninsula. One of the perks must be the lack of OOC testing at the bottom of Africa.

They fill out a whereabouts form for their working life, and have to nominate an hour a day place and time where they can be tested. If they fill it out wrong or are not where they say they are going to be, I think it's 2 strikes counts as a violation and 3 is a suspension. It's just numbers so not important.

Bottom line: yes, they can still be OOC tested, regardless of their idyllic locale.

 

[hektoren]

This is statistics. You condition the probability that Froome is clean on known facts. You do need to make assumptions about how likely these facts would be under the doping scenario and under the clean scenario, but that's necessary for confessions and positives or other very damning facts, such as the following, as well:

- transferring 9000€ to Fuentes
- breaking the Alpe ascent record

reasonable, and justifiable assumptions here would be that both are likely if you're doping and very unlikely if you're clean. which is why, knowing these facts, it was rational to believe pantani and frank schleck were doping.

Well, a lot of what I've read in here, particularly about Froome's Bilharzia, is full of speculation and poorly qualified guesswork, and very short on relevant facts. Conclusions are drawn, opinions are formed by people who hardly has more than a crash-course in physiology and medicine. To the best of my knowledge, I can't conclude either way, whether bilharzia is relevant or not in this case.

You might think it's a reasonable and justifiable assumption that the actor I told you about is an alcoholic, but luckily some people know better and treat him based on facts, not assumptions.

 

[hektoren]

Given that quote it puzzles me that people can state this:

Froome doing TT's with his elbows sticking out? Like this?

Or this?

Methinks not.

 

[Fearless Greg Lemond]

Hektoren, you are as consistent as the Froome dawg story, I like that. You never contradict your own statements, refreshing.

 

[Froome19]

Given that quote it puzzles me that people can state this:

Stop trolling. I know what I said, LS quoted it, if you have got nothing to contribute then.. don't

And it puzzles me because I don't know the reason as to why he didn't go there until this year. I don't doubt there was a good reason though. Better than making up some rubbish.

 

[Fearless Greg Lemond]

Stop trolling. I know what I said, LS quoted it, if you have got nothing to contribute then.. don't

And it puzzles me because I don't know the reason as to why he didn't go there until this year. I don't doubt there was a good reason though. Better than making up some rubbish.

Do you have a reply for this one;
http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showpost.php?p=1260794&postcount=1993

?

 

[Franklin]

You know, on October 23 1929 all experts thought that markets can only go up:" statistically the chances of market going down is extremely remote."

Or, on 6 June 1990 day when Gianni Bugno won his first Giro, experts said: "statistically the chances of a GT winner being EPO fuelled is extremely remote."

A libertarian, they are fantastic with statistics

This is extremely tough as the ways to nail this post back on the slagheap are manifold. Shall I?

1. Point out that if the criterium is clean and not just Epo the whole argument disappears in a puff of smoke?
2. Shall I point out that Bugno has a similar miraculous medical resurrection and thus seems a rather amusing role model if we look at what we know now?

No I'll take the easy way out: and just show that reading posts is very dificult indeed by posting a sentence from my post:

But what we get are people rolling around coming up with often bizarre stories how they explain away a single aspect of the analysis and ignoring the enormous heap of other issues. Then they go to the next point *Rinse repeat*.

As usual taking apart bizarre positions is easy.

 

[ToreBear]

Not the UCI, more like WADA.

Which explosion are you referring to? At the 2006 Worlds time trial, his very first outing on the world scene, he crashed with an official, yet managed to finish 36th, for chrissake. What does that tell you about his engine from get-go???

As for ever changing stories I can vividly remember the whispering-game of my childhood years. Make sure you know the original story. Just saying.

Good point, 36th after that crash is quite impressive IMHO.

http://62.50.72.82/imgarchive/Road/World Championships/2006/Results-ROA-MU-TT.pdf

That Joo Hyun Wook dude is very talented, one of the WT teams should pick him up
That's U23 TT though, some sky bots might think that it was the real deal

Thanks for the link.

I find it also interesting that Froome at number 36 was only 1,36 behind number 17, Tony Martin who was 44 seconds behind the two year younger EBH who came 5th.

What does this tell me? That I could make up a lot of competing theories which fit this data quite nicely. Or i could draw even more arguments by using more than the few data points listed above.

I could start a new Tony Martin thread, with this suspicious placing. But I think the most likely explanation for Tony's improvement, is training and a will to excel in the tt, so I won't bother.


Of course the lazy explanation would be clean then, and doping now. That's much easier to reason instead of all the factors that change over 7 years.

 

[thehog]

Froome doing TT's with his elbows sticking out? Like this?

Or this?



Methinks not.

The arms are not the issue. It's the woeful hip imbalance. It's striking that he can generate the power he does with this condition.

Comparisons are often made with Rasmussen. However Ras had a much better position and riding style.

It's certainly not a case of style over substance. 5-6 hours of effort with the right leg doing what it's doing is not possible to generate that type of power.

Sorry.

Actually it is possible. I guess you know how.

 

[ToreBear]

A libertarian, they are fantastic with statistics

This is extremely tough as the ways to nail this post back on the slagheap are manifold. Shall I?

1. Point out that if the criterium is clean and not just Epo the whole argument disappears in a puff of smoke?
2. Shall I point out that Bugno has a similar miraculous medical resurrection and thus seems a rather amusing role model if we look at what we know now?

No I'll take the easy way out: and just show that reading posts is very dificult indeed by posting a sentence from my post:



As usual taking apart bizarre positions is easy.

I think either you or I missed the point Von Misses made.

Here is my take:
In 1929 they had 20 years of the market going up. That was the material their statistics were based on. Hence the statistics would show that the risk of the markets going down would be close to zero.

Same for GT winners on epo. They had like 80 years of statistics showing that no EPO winner had won a GT. The chance of a GT winner on EPO would then be microscopic.

Measuring the present to the past can lead to quite strange inferences.

 

[SeriousSam]

Well, a lot of what I've read in here, particularly about Froome's Bilharzia, is full of speculation and poorly qualified guesswork, and very short on relevant facts. Conclusions are drawn, opinions are formed by people who hardly has more than a crash-course in physiology and medicine. To the best of my knowledge, I can't conclude either way, whether bilharzia is relevant or not in this case.

Feel free to correct those assumptions if you have superior insight. Nothing stops you from explaining why various pieces of information, as they relate to Froome, actually aren't a lot more likely if he dopes than if he doesnt dope.

You might think it's a reasonable and justifiable assumption that the actor I told you about is an alcoholic, but luckily some people know better and treat him based on facts, not assumptions.

You might think it's a reasonable and justifiable assumption that Frank Schleck wasn't poisoned but luckily some people know better and treat him based on facts, not assumptions!

You might think it's a reasonable and justifiable assumption that Alberto Contador didn't consume contaminated steaks, but luckily some people know better and treat him based on facts, not assumptions!



You can't do without assumptions unless you want to ignore everything except personally observing the rider injecting PEDs. Some assumptions are justified and some aren't. Again, nothing is stopping you from providing more plausible assumptions as they relate to Froome's rise to the top, bilharzia, his w/kg etc etc

 

[SeriousSam]

Measuring the present to the past can lead to quite strange inferences.

You know you've lost the argument when you have to invoke the problem of induction to cast doubt on some claim.

 

[Ferminal]

Isn't the whole bilharzia thing a red herring at this point? I mean by now we have more compelling performance indicators than the not-normal progression. If he was performing at the level of Rigoberto Uran or Tejay Van Garderen it may have some relevance, but Froome has been the dominant GC rider for 12 months now. I find it more likely that bilharzia had a significant impact on his performance pre-August 2011 than the possibility that a rider can be clean whilst achieving what he has.

 

[thehog]

3 Years? You are a smart guy, where do you see 3 years of not knowing about Bilharzia from the time it was diagnosed in December 2010 from when he got it.

He knew he had it then, just lingered in his system for having it first in 2010..

The UCI conducted the drug test in Kenya and found it in December 2010.
Stop pretending to be dense..

You have to admit this Badzhilla is becoming like the JFK magic bullet theorem.

So when the Dawg was zig sagging up hills at the 2009 Giro he didn’t have it? In 2008 Tour he didn’t have it either?

What about the Atomic Jock race? Did he have it then?

2010 you say he first got it? Around December?

And once cured he didn’t get a little bit better on the bike. Or a lot better. He became a GT (almost) winner overnight in the 2011 Vuelta.

2011 Tour of Poland he could barely finish with the lead group. But 1 month later he was sprinting up hills at the Vuelta?

Riiiiiiighhhht.

If this is what Badzhilla can do for you then I want to get it!