Edited title to distinguish from the other 2016 Tour thread
I originally wanted to post this in the Quintana thread, but whatever. Tour prediction is littering all 3 threads anyway. The Contador, Froome and Quintana threads that is.
So many scenario's that can happen between the three. From what I've seen this spring, I'm pretty sure all 3 will be pretty good. You can't deny that Contador and Quintana both had a great spring. Froome totally didn't, but he'll probably somehow manage to be good. Very hard to predict, because these 3 have never gone head to head at the top of their game.
Froome vs Contador. Dauphine 2014 stage 2. That is in build up. Then you have stages Farrapona and Ancares in the Vuelta that year. Close to 100%, but how close?
Froome vs Quintana. Don't think the 2013 Tour had a good example. Mende and Pra Loup in the 2015 Tour? Really think the other stages aren't a great comparison, with Quintana getting dropped by LRP on PSM and with Froome being sick-ish on Toussuire and AdH.
Contador vs Quintana. Big fat never. Vuelta 2014 could've given an indication, but we all know what happened.
The way I see it so far, it's not easy to predict. All 3 have points in favour and points against them, and we interpret them to our liking, let's face it, subjective.
Froome
+ has won 2 Tours in the last 3 years. Has won the first MTF dominantly both times, with very large differences. Pretty reliable in reaching form at the right moment. Has strong team. Can go from bad to great pretty quickly
- has faded in both Tours he won. Arguably, the only 2 GTs where he was consistent for 3 weeks were the 2011 Vuelta and the 2012 Tour. Bike handling skills seem suspect, but I think he's gotten more reliable and confident in that area.
Overal, Froome's benefits are his team strenght, tt, and one/single effort stages
Critical, can he be great for the entire 3 weeks this time
Quintana
+ Usually great in the last week. Gets better, the harder the stage gets. Doesn't fly away solo that often, but when he does, he flies away hard. Usually up there, no matter how his form was during the spring
- Though he's improved in the tt recently, he still has the weakest tt of the three. Especially when he's not in top shape, but he has to be. Don't think he's ever been great through the entire three weeks of a GT. Usually only peaks in the last 8 days or so, but is slightly vulnerable prior to that. Sometimes waits too long before attacking
Overal, Quintana's benefits are the third week, and the real tough, brutal #murderkilldeath stages
Critical, can he not *** up the first week this time.
Contador
+ Has won them all before, and multiple times. Can win on any type of (real) climb. Absolutely world class in hilly TT's as well. Can find a way to win, even when he's not the strongest. Very high peak form.
- Often team strength. Can't go from bad to great quickly (though has been v good all year). TT can be suspect when he's not in the right shape. Tactically, he always blows himself up trying to follow attacks when he really should be riding his own pace. Yolo type suicide attacks when he's not anyway, but who the hell cares.
Overall, Contador's strenghts are pretty much inbetween Froome's and Quintana's. Can create havoc anywhere, anytime. Most all round of the 3.
Critical, can he get his peak right and not crash out this time?
Then again, maybe this is not really a fine balance, and maybe one of the three wrecks face for three weeks, or maybe 2 of them crash out, or maybe someone else humiliates them all, in which case, this is all moot, and I once again prove to be great at wasting my own time.
There you have it. My semi-drunk and semi-objective take on the Tour. In reality I made it because I actaully have to study though I really don't want to. Oh, and I'm yammering about the Tour even though my countymen (go Stevie!!!), is wrecking face at and winning the Giro, the race I've hailed as being the most beautiful race in the world and nigh as important as the Tour plenty of times. Aw *** I'll make a thread for this, so I can stay away from useless predictory (I don't even think that's a word) crap that messes up the riders respective threads once in aw hile.
I originally wanted to post this in the Quintana thread, but whatever. Tour prediction is littering all 3 threads anyway. The Contador, Froome and Quintana threads that is.
So many scenario's that can happen between the three. From what I've seen this spring, I'm pretty sure all 3 will be pretty good. You can't deny that Contador and Quintana both had a great spring. Froome totally didn't, but he'll probably somehow manage to be good. Very hard to predict, because these 3 have never gone head to head at the top of their game.
Froome vs Contador. Dauphine 2014 stage 2. That is in build up. Then you have stages Farrapona and Ancares in the Vuelta that year. Close to 100%, but how close?
Froome vs Quintana. Don't think the 2013 Tour had a good example. Mende and Pra Loup in the 2015 Tour? Really think the other stages aren't a great comparison, with Quintana getting dropped by LRP on PSM and with Froome being sick-ish on Toussuire and AdH.
Contador vs Quintana. Big fat never. Vuelta 2014 could've given an indication, but we all know what happened.
The way I see it so far, it's not easy to predict. All 3 have points in favour and points against them, and we interpret them to our liking, let's face it, subjective.
Froome
+ has won 2 Tours in the last 3 years. Has won the first MTF dominantly both times, with very large differences. Pretty reliable in reaching form at the right moment. Has strong team. Can go from bad to great pretty quickly
- has faded in both Tours he won. Arguably, the only 2 GTs where he was consistent for 3 weeks were the 2011 Vuelta and the 2012 Tour. Bike handling skills seem suspect, but I think he's gotten more reliable and confident in that area.
Overal, Froome's benefits are his team strenght, tt, and one/single effort stages
Critical, can he be great for the entire 3 weeks this time
Quintana
+ Usually great in the last week. Gets better, the harder the stage gets. Doesn't fly away solo that often, but when he does, he flies away hard. Usually up there, no matter how his form was during the spring
- Though he's improved in the tt recently, he still has the weakest tt of the three. Especially when he's not in top shape, but he has to be. Don't think he's ever been great through the entire three weeks of a GT. Usually only peaks in the last 8 days or so, but is slightly vulnerable prior to that. Sometimes waits too long before attacking
Overal, Quintana's benefits are the third week, and the real tough, brutal #murderkilldeath stages
Critical, can he not *** up the first week this time.
Contador
+ Has won them all before, and multiple times. Can win on any type of (real) climb. Absolutely world class in hilly TT's as well. Can find a way to win, even when he's not the strongest. Very high peak form.
- Often team strength. Can't go from bad to great quickly (though has been v good all year). TT can be suspect when he's not in the right shape. Tactically, he always blows himself up trying to follow attacks when he really should be riding his own pace. Yolo type suicide attacks when he's not anyway, but who the hell cares.
Overall, Contador's strenghts are pretty much inbetween Froome's and Quintana's. Can create havoc anywhere, anytime. Most all round of the 3.
Critical, can he get his peak right and not crash out this time?
Then again, maybe this is not really a fine balance, and maybe one of the three wrecks face for three weeks, or maybe 2 of them crash out, or maybe someone else humiliates them all, in which case, this is all moot, and I once again prove to be great at wasting my own time.
There you have it. My semi-drunk and semi-objective take on the Tour. In reality I made it because I actaully have to study though I really don't want to. Oh, and I'm yammering about the Tour even though my countymen (go Stevie!!!), is wrecking face at and winning the Giro, the race I've hailed as being the most beautiful race in the world and nigh as important as the Tour plenty of times. Aw *** I'll make a thread for this, so I can stay away from useless predictory (I don't even think that's a word) crap that messes up the riders respective threads once in aw hile.
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