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Froome vs Quintana vs Contador

Edited title to distinguish from the other 2016 Tour thread

I originally wanted to post this in the Quintana thread, but whatever. Tour prediction is littering all 3 threads anyway. The Contador, Froome and Quintana threads that is.

So many scenario's that can happen between the three. From what I've seen this spring, I'm pretty sure all 3 will be pretty good. You can't deny that Contador and Quintana both had a great spring. Froome totally didn't, but he'll probably somehow manage to be good. Very hard to predict, because these 3 have never gone head to head at the top of their game.

Froome vs Contador. Dauphine 2014 stage 2. That is in build up. Then you have stages Farrapona and Ancares in the Vuelta that year. Close to 100%, but how close?
Froome vs Quintana. Don't think the 2013 Tour had a good example. Mende and Pra Loup in the 2015 Tour? Really think the other stages aren't a great comparison, with Quintana getting dropped by LRP on PSM and with Froome being sick-ish on Toussuire and AdH.
Contador vs Quintana. Big fat never. Vuelta 2014 could've given an indication, but we all know what happened.

The way I see it so far, it's not easy to predict. All 3 have points in favour and points against them, and we interpret them to our liking, let's face it, subjective.

Froome
+ has won 2 Tours in the last 3 years. Has won the first MTF dominantly both times, with very large differences. Pretty reliable in reaching form at the right moment. Has strong team. Can go from bad to great pretty quickly
- has faded in both Tours he won. Arguably, the only 2 GTs where he was consistent for 3 weeks were the 2011 Vuelta and the 2012 Tour. Bike handling skills seem suspect, but I think he's gotten more reliable and confident in that area.

Overal, Froome's benefits are his team strenght, tt, and one/single effort stages
Critical, can he be great for the entire 3 weeks this time

Quintana
+ Usually great in the last week. Gets better, the harder the stage gets. Doesn't fly away solo that often, but when he does, he flies away hard. Usually up there, no matter how his form was during the spring
- Though he's improved in the tt recently, he still has the weakest tt of the three. Especially when he's not in top shape, but he has to be. Don't think he's ever been great through the entire three weeks of a GT. Usually only peaks in the last 8 days or so, but is slightly vulnerable prior to that. Sometimes waits too long before attacking

Overal, Quintana's benefits are the third week, and the real tough, brutal #murderkilldeath stages
Critical, can he not *** up the first week this time.

Contador
+ Has won them all before, and multiple times. Can win on any type of (real) climb. Absolutely world class in hilly TT's as well. Can find a way to win, even when he's not the strongest. Very high peak form.
- Often team strength. Can't go from bad to great quickly (though has been v good all year). TT can be suspect when he's not in the right shape. Tactically, he always blows himself up trying to follow attacks when he really should be riding his own pace. Yolo type suicide attacks when he's not anyway, but who the hell cares.

Overall, Contador's strenghts are pretty much inbetween Froome's and Quintana's. Can create havoc anywhere, anytime. Most all round of the 3.
Critical, can he get his peak right and not crash out this time?

Then again, maybe this is not really a fine balance, and maybe one of the three wrecks face for three weeks, or maybe 2 of them crash out, or maybe someone else humiliates them all, in which case, this is all moot, and I once again prove to be great at wasting my own time.

There you have it. My semi-drunk and semi-objective take on the Tour. In reality I made it because I actaully have to study though I really don't want to. Oh, and I'm yammering about the Tour even though my countymen (go Stevie!!!), is wrecking face at and winning the Giro, the race I've hailed as being the most beautiful race in the world and nigh as important as the Tour plenty of times. Aw *** I'll make a thread for this, so I can stay away from useless predictory (I don't even think that's a word) crap that messes up the riders respective threads once in aw hile.
 
Re:

Breh said:
Should be named; Froome, Quintana and Contador discussion thread. Or Froome vs Quintana vs Contador

Tour 2016 prediction thread but only 3names mentioned.

What other riders would say have a very good chance of winning?


Red Rick I'd say your analyses is pretty fair. The only thing people should get upset about is the fact that you mentioned Froome's bike handling skills at all. :p

My objective unbias prediction
1. AC, 2. Quintana, 3. Froome, Aru to podium if any of these crash out.
 
Re: Re:

Jspear said:
Breh said:
Should be named; Froome, Quintana and Contador discussion thread. Or Froome vs Quintana vs Contador

Tour 2016 prediction thread but only 3names mentioned.

What other riders would say have a very good chance of winning?


Red Rick I'd say your analyses is pretty fair. The only thing people should get upset about is the fact that you mentioned Froome's bike handling skills at all. :p

My objective unbias prediction
1. AC, 2. Quintana, 3. Froome, Aru to podium if any of these crash out.

I think that Aru might even challenge podium. It just depends if he has improved compared to last year.
 
My totally objective unbiased prediction tells me Quintana will win.

Great to have a Quintana v Froome v Contador-thread. Often times, Quintana has been forgotten in the game between Froome and Contador. Its also a plus I won't have to explain portugal why Quintana doesn't lose 3 minutes in the ITT this year. ;)

All 3 have their strengths and weaknesses. Froome is the prototype of a Tour winner, the Armstrong template and the favourite. Quintana is the pure climber, but much, much more reliable in every terrain than your typical escarabajo. Contador is the most all-round and has won the most, but its hard to see him either demolish in the ITT or the climbs. If he wins, I think it will be a victory with his head more so than his legs, alá 2012.

Landa abandoning the Giro could prove crucial for the 2016 Tour. Sky has without a doubt the strongest team and Froome has shown in the past he is able to use that team either super offensively or defensively.
 
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Re:

Very good thread. I'll be posting the odds here regularly when the time comes.

Breh said:
Should be named; Froome, Quintana and Contador discussion thread. Or Froome vs Quintana vs Contador

Tour 2016 prediction thread but only 3names mentioned.
It's about predicting the winner of the Tour. The probability that none of them wins is small.
 
Difficult to look past Froome or Quintana. Both have finished 1st or 2nd in every TdF they have entered in the last 5 years, and are at an age where they will still be improving. If Quintana can get his peaking right he could take enough time of Froome in the last week to win it. Froome will probably destroy the timetrials though - he'll be focussed on them again this year with Rio in mind.

The likes of Contador, Aru, Pinot are just a notch below imo. Contador just about best of the rest; but he hasn't even made the podium in the Tour for 6 years; it's difficult to see how he can compete with top form Froome or Contador.
 
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Re:

DFA123 said:
Difficult to look past Froome or Quintana. Both have finished 1st or 2nd in every TdF they have entered in the last 5 years, and are at an age where they will still be improving. If Quintana can get his peaking right he could take enough time of Froome in the last week to win it. Froome will probably destroy the timetrials though - he'll be focussed on them again this year with Rio in mind.

The likes of Contador, Aru, Pinot are just a notch below imo. Contador just about best of the rest; but he hasn't even made the podium in the Tour for 6 years; it's difficult to see how he can compete with top form Froome or Contador.

Rode the giro in 2011 (would have easily podium'd if he didn't crash and lose 90 sec first day)
Didn't race it in 2012
Had his worst year ever in 2013
Crashed in 2014
Rode the giro in 2015 (and had that crash in the descent)

Some context would be nice.
 
Re: Re:

Miburo said:
DFA123 said:
Difficult to look past Froome or Quintana. Both have finished 1st or 2nd in every TdF they have entered in the last 5 years, and are at an age where they will still be improving. If Quintana can get his peaking right he could take enough time of Froome in the last week to win it. Froome will probably destroy the timetrials though - he'll be focussed on them again this year with Rio in mind.

The likes of Contador, Aru, Pinot are just a notch below imo. Contador just about best of the rest; but he hasn't even made the podium in the Tour for 6 years; it's difficult to see how he can compete with top form Froome or Contador.

Rode the giro in 2011 (would have easily podium'd if he didn't crash and lose 90 sec first day)
Didn't race it in 2012
Had his worst year ever in 2013
Crashed in 2014
Rode the giro in 2015 (and had that crash in the descent)

Some context would be nice.
Surely everyone knows the context? The point is, that when making a prediction surely its better to go with the known variables. Quintana and Froome have always been at good form in the Tour in the last few years - always finishing 1st or 2nd. There's no reason to think that both won't be on equally good form this year - maybe even better considering they can still improve at their age.

With Contador there are a lot more doubts. That's not to say he can't win - but he's rightly the third favourite at the moment.
 
He wouldn't have come close in 2015 anyways. Nibali had the technical at the foot the Alpe d' Huez - it wouldn't have changed anything. Contador was about as bad in the Tour as he was in 2013 and never reached a super high level in 2015. I think we all agree on that.

Anyways, enough of the excuses. We know why he may or may not have performed, he has to show something this year. :)
 
No stage with more than ~3,500 vertical meters in the last week is a disadvantage for Quintana. Having both TTs the day after the two hardest MTFs doesn't bode well for the racing on those, though it could help him with the TTs. Le Bettex does not seem like the most fitting climb to Quintana's abilities, but Joux Plane should suit him well. The Swiss MTF should be where he can take the most time, but it's not to his advantage that it is the day after a rest day, so I actually think he'll do best on stage 20.
 
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Netserk said:
No stage with more than ~3,500 vertical meters in the last week is a disadvantage for Quintana. Having both TTs the day after the two hardest MTFs doesn't bode well for the racing on those, though it could help him with the TTs. Le Bettex does not seem like the most fitting climb to Quintana's abilities, but Joux Plane should suit him well. The Swiss MTF should be where he can take the most time, but it's not to his advantage that it is the day after a rest day, so I actually think he'll do best on stage 20.
Good points. In that case the biggest challenge for Quintana, especially with the lack of opportunity to claw back time late on, will be to limit Froome's advantage on the first big MTF. He's basically won the race there in the past, with Quintana still looking slightly off top form. Perhaps Movistar could send Valverde (if he rides) to attack from the bottom of the climb, just to try to break up the Sky train.
 
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Here's the market activity (bet365 is usually the top line, betfair the varying line). Everything's been constant for a long time now. The relative differences (the numbers themselves are likely too large for most riders in the graph) support the story expressed by some posters in this thread: We'll probably get a repeat of the Froome vs Quintana duel we have seen, with Contador possibly having a say, and everyone else very unlikely to win.


44a6CEC.png
 
Re: Re:

Netserk said:
Valv.Piti said:
Netserk said:
How big a return if you short Porte? Over the inflation rate from here to the end of the Tour?

The general consensus is that Porte, Aru and Pinot are equally likely, more or less, to win the Tour at around 17,00 the money back.
So? What does that have to do with what I asked? I doubt I'd get a 5.8% return.

I guess I didn't read your question, but I still have no clue of what you are speaking about. What does 'short Porte' mean? Im not a Betfair-man.
 
Re: Re:

Valv.Piti said:
Netserk said:
Valv.Piti said:
Netserk said:
How big a return if you short Porte? Over the inflation rate from here to the end of the Tour?

The general consensus is that Porte, Aru and Pinot are equally likely, more or less, to win the Tour at around 17,00 the money back.
So? What does that have to do with what I asked? I doubt I'd get a 5.8% return.

I guess I didn't read your question, but I still have no clue of what you are speaking about. What does 'short Porte' mean? Im not a Betfair-man.

It's an exchange, so you're not betting against, the bookie, but vs other people. So it means you can say

Porte wins the Tour @17,00
Porte doesn't win the Tour @1.058. (=lay at 17, something)
 
Currently you can sell Porte at 46 (maybe a bit better, but that's where you are currently guaranteed to get a match for your bet). So for every 1 euro/whatever you possibly get you risk losing 45 euros. Also you can bet on Porte at 36, so if someone is offering 17, that's quite low.
 

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