Fuglsang on his and his opponents' watts

[BlueRoads]

The contexts in which I read about H7379 were Aderlass-related, so I did not take it as something new and exciting, rather as a version of old stuff used by "second class" riders desperate to stay in the WT. The only interesting thing about that would be the possible Aderlass-Slovenia-connection.

 

[Red Rick]

Whatever goes around, it turned Fausto Masnada from random breakaway fodder#12 into a Nibali level climber.

 

[Red Rick]

The contexts in which I read about H7379 were Aderlass-related, so I did not take it as something new and exciting, rather as a version of old stuff used by "second class" riders desperate to stay in the WT. The only interesting thing about that would be the possible Aderlass-Slovenia-connection.

So you really think riders only dope to get mid level contracts and not to win?

 

[DoYouEvenRideBruh]

To be honest the Sunweb/Ineos superdrugs theory has been discredited a bit today. Nibali can't have his best numbers if he got so much time from Fuglsang and Bilbao (not expecting it, I though he would be best of the oldies). Hart and Hindley are heads and shoulders above everybody else but those two riders defended pretty well.

 

[Red Rick]

Blew and gave up

 

[DoYouEvenRideBruh]

Yeah likely, still the other two didn't lose that much time today. IMO nothing out of the ordinary. Even performances like Dennis', while impressive, are not impossible once in a blue moon, especially for a guy with such an engine.

I hope they publish some numbers for today's climbs. Really curious what kind of watts were pushed on the Stelvio.

 

[zlev11]

Whatever goes around, it turned Fausto Masnada from random breakaway fodder#12 into a Nibali level climber.

I think Masnada showed a lot more than just being breakaway fodder in last years Giro. he attacked all over the place and was up the road on all of the big climbing days. he definitely stepped up a level but it's not all that surprising to me.

 

[BlueRoads]

So you really think riders only dope to get mid level contracts and not to win?

No, no...
I just thought that this is probably not the stuff that makes a winner... that if there's something new that makes the difference, this would not be it. I am not exactly in the scene, though...

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

It's like there's 2 different pelotons right now. One riding at the level of last year, and one riding at several levels above of where they have previously been. And sometimes that's within the 3 weeks of a GT themselves.

The simpler theory is that a load of top riders are off their usual pace with everything being moved around and limitations on training for different periods in different countries. And with the season so compressed there are loads of races where the remaining top riders aren’t there in numbers. So relative nobodies can look great if they do have their top form. This in no way implies that doping is less common than previously (or more common).

When I look at that Giro top 10, I don’t see a selection of guys who somehow have access to new secret squirrel rocket fuel that the top riders for some reason don’t have. I see mice playing because all the cats are away.

 

[DoYouEvenRideBruh]

The simpler theory is that a load of top riders are off their usual pace with everything being moved around and limitations on training for different periods in different countries. And with the season so compressed there are loads of races where the remaining top riders aren’t there in numbers. So relative nobodies can look great if they do have their top form. This in no way implies that doping is less common than previously (or more common).

When I look at that Giro top 10, I don’t see a selection of guys who somehow have access to new secret squirrel rocket fuel that the top riders for some reason don’t have. I see mice playing because all the cats are away.

Yep, agree 100%. Older guys who need more miles in their legs have suffered the reworked season and the change of habits. Not a universal rule (Porte did well!) but it can explain a lot of these results.

I wonder what the riders who podium at the Giro will look like next year. Say Hart wins the thing, will he get any more chances to ride as a leader or will he be put in his place? Sure, he probably wouldn't be up there with Thomas, Yates, etc in the race but his performances by numbers alone are still pretty good. Same with Hindley and Almeida.

 

[Red Rick]

The simpler theory is that a load of top riders are off their usual pace with everything being moved around and limitations on training for different periods in different countries. And with the season so compressed there are loads of races where the remaining top riders aren’t there in numbers. So relative nobodies can look great if they do have their top form. This in no way implies that doping is less common than previously (or more common).

When I look at that Giro top 10, I don’t see a selection of guys who somehow have access to new secret squirrel rocket fuel that the top riders for some reason don’t have. I see mice playing because all the cats are away.

This would make sense if it weren't for the climbing numbers being normal for guys like Nibali and completely ridiculous for guys like Kelderman, TGH and Hindley.

VAM wise today was up there with the 2016 and 2017 Giros in terms of VAM. Considering the huge length and altitude of the Stelvio, it was probably considerably better htan his Giro winning ride on Lombarde in 2016 and his winning ride of the Umbrail in 2017.

Now he loses 2'30. Which might be 1' - 1'30 on an ordinary climb to be sure, but he's still nowhere to be seen.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

This would make sense if it weren't for the climbing numbers being normal for guys like Nibali and completely ridiculous for guys like Kelderman, TGH and Hindley.

VAM wise today was up there with the 2016 and 2017 Giros in terms of VAM. Considering the huge length and altitude of the Stelvio, it was probably considerably better htan his Giro winning ride on Lombarde in 2016 and his winning ride of the Umbrail in 2017.

Now he loses 2'30. Which might be 1' - 1'30 on an ordinary climb to be sure, but he's still nowhere to be seen.

NibalI ended up in a group with Pernsteiner, Almeida and Masnada a minute behind Konrad. Are we to think that all of those guys have the new special sauce too but it’s been kept from Nibali? Or could we instead surmise that Nibali, who has done nothing all year, is old and has become exactly the kind of rider who needs to hit his peak dead on to compete, ie exactly the kind of rider who might have particular trouble this year? Or to be more blunt about it, is it not more likely that Nibali simply sucks right now and is riding at the level of guys who would consider coming 8th to be a major success? And that in fact he‘s no more reliable about his numbers than Bernal was?

Take Geoghegan Hart as an example. I’m absolutely sure that Ineos have that guy tracked and measured and tested so much he might get confused and think he’s a space shuttle component. He‘s highly regarded there and British. But they’ve never picked him for the Tour and he was sent here as an important B Team domestique, not a leader. Why have they issued him of all people with the super sauce? Why not their Tour team? Why not Thomas, whose big proof that he had top form still involved getting spanked by Simon Yates on Sassotetto? For that matter why didn’t Sunweb send Jai Hindley to the Tour if they thought he was a worldbeater?

Was Pello Bilbao suddenly issued with the new secret weapon in between the Tour and the Giro? Or is he just riding against a laughably weak field? I know which my money is on.

 

[Red Rick]

NibalI ended up in a group with Pernsteiner, Almeida and Masnada a minute behind Konrad. Are we to think that all of those guys have the new special sauce too but it’s been kept from Nibali? Or could we instead surmise that Nibali, who has done nothing all year, is old and has become exactly the kind of rider who needs to hit his peak dead on to compete, ie exactly the kind of rider who might have particular trouble this year? Or to be more blunt about it, is it not more likely that Nibali simply sucks right now and is riding at the level of guys who would consider coming 8th to be a major success? And that in fact he‘s no more reliable about his numbers than Bernal was?

Take Geoghegan Hart as an example. I’m absolutely sure that Ineos have that guy tracked and measured and tested so much he might get confused and think he’s a space shuttle component. He‘s highly regarded there and British. But they’ve never picked him for the Tour and he was sent here as an important B Team domestique, not a leader. Why have they issued him of all people with the super sauce? Why not their Tour team? Why not Thomas, whose big proof that he had top form still involved getting spanked by Simon Yates on Sassotetto? For that matter why didn’t Sunweb send Jai Hindley to the Tour if they thought he was a worldbeater?

Was Pello Bilbao suddenly issued with the new secret weapon in between the Tour and the Giro? Or is he just riding against a laughably weak field? I know which my money is on.

Ineos weren't on it for the Tour but got on it before the Giro. Probably started it during Tirreno, judging by Ganna's ITT there. Thomas then crashed out of the Giro.

DQS I don't really doubt are on it, they might have been one of the first teams to start with it or perfect it. Masnada's leap in performance is hilarious.

I don't trust Nibali's words. I don't trust Bernals words. I trust his climbing times. And they're solid, despite a longer climb, despite higher altitude, despite completely blowing up. And you might think climbing times are unreliable, but when the same thing happens on just about every mountain stage it's not coincidence anymore.

 

[roundabout]

Tao is a strange one. He failed on the Etna, but is flying having become the team's GC leader.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Ineos weren't on it for the Tour but got on it before the Giro. Probably started it during Tirreno, judging by Ganna's ITT there. Thomas then crashed out of the Giro.

DQS I don't really doubt are on it, they might have been one of the first teams to start with it or perfect it. Masnada's leap in performance is hilarious.

I don't trust Nibali's words. I don't trust Bernals words. I trust his climbing times. And they're solid, despite a longer climb, despite higher altitude, despite completely blowing up. And you might think climbing times are unreliable, but when the same thing happens on just about every mountain stage it's not coincidence anymore.

The usually reliable Finnish guy on Twitter has the climbing performances at the front today as good but considerably less superhuman than you do. And by extension, Nibali’s as weaker again.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1319351834553798656

View: https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1319351834553798656?s=21


You say that you think DQS have the new sauce that Nibali has been denied. Do Bahrain and Bora? Are you really suggesting that Bilbao and Bahrain got it in between the Tour and a Giro along with Sky?

If we look over to Spain, Enric Mas, Hugh Carthy and Dan Martin have been climbing every day with Roglic and Kuss. Now obviously Jumbo have to have this stuff for your theory to hang together at all, but are we to take it from this that Movistar, EF and ISN have suddenly caught up?

My view remains that Tour Pello v Giro Pello is a better measuring stick than this NibalI v Nibali of some year gone by.

 

[Forever The Best]

Nibali looks similar to his 2016/2017 level, or slightly below it, but the performance of Dennis/TGH/Hindley was much better than Nibali at Lombarde 2016 or Umbrail 2017, and Nibali had a small climb of 2.3 km at %8.3 after Lombarde in 2016 in a shorter stage, and his 2017 Umbrail stage ended with a descent finish while TGH/Hindley had to take a 8.7 km at %6.8 climb. Plus, Nibali's performance looks worse due to going too deep trying to stay with stronger riders and blowing up. But Nibali 2016/2017 Giro had no chance today. All in all I think it's that the general level has massively gone upwards.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1319351834553798656

View: https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1319351834553798656

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/736589100078227456

View: https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/736589100078227456

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/736589707094724608

View: https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/736589707094724608

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/867129020168720384

View: https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/867129020168720384

 

[roundabout]

I wonder if this how a forum would have looked in the early 90's.

'Hey, Lemond and Fignon just suck and the times are nothing special'.

 

[Red Rick]

The usually reliable Finnish guy on Twitter has the climbing performances at the front today as good but considerably less superhuman than you do. And by extension, Nibali’s as weaker again.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1319351834553798656

View: https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1319351834553798656?s=21


You say that you think DQS have the new sauce that Nibali has been denied. Do Bahrain and Bora? Are you really suggesting that Bilbao and Bahrain got it in between the Tour and a Giro along with Sky?

If we look over to Spain, Enric Mas, Hugh Carthy and Dan Martin have been climbing every day with Roglic and Kuss. Now obviously Jumbo have to have this stuff for your theory to hang together at all, but are we to take it from this that Movistar, EF and ISN have suddenly caught up?

I saw that. 2 minutes on Stelvio is like 3% difference. Still a huge performance from the front 3. Unbelievable for all 3.

Now as for who all has it? I think there's various degrees with Pogacar's ITT being the craziest one. Maybe everyone is on it but they're all on different regimens trying to figure it out. Maybe Nibali is on it but just that bad this year. I think if everyone were on it the names we'd see in this Giro wouldn't be so totally random, including some guys with a long history of just not being that good, like Bilbao, Kelderman or Dennis.

 

[roundabout]

Kruijswijk did 5.5 W/kg on the Iseran last year. That was a 36 minute climb. 5.7 on a sprint one climb stage to Val Thorens. Today was very fast and not from the people that should have been expected to be this fast at the start of 2020.

 

[Forever The Best]

Bernal was 5.8 W/Kg and 1610 m/h VAM, for 35:35 min. on Iseran, for comparison.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1154808089419403264

View: https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1154808089419403264

 

[Red Rick]

Bernal was 5.8 W/Kg and 1610 m/h VAM, for 35:35 min. on Iseran, for comparison.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1154808089419403264

View: https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1154808089419403264

Also Bernal put a minute into the entire field on a 35 minute climb.

So basically they were all Nibali's that day on Val Thorens.

 

[BlueRoads]

The outragious thing here is that Trek gave the good stuff only to Porte this year and not to Nibali...

I actually don't even want to be that sarcastic. All I want is a somewhat rational approach. Of course it might very well be these riders on the front today are doping. Maybe there even is something "new" or a new combination.

But most of you claiming these times by Dennis/ Sunweb/ Ineos/ the youngsters are just hardcore Nibali-fans. And now you come here after stages where Nibali did not do so well, and claim that Nibali is as good as ever, just the other ones must be on some extraterrestrial new stuff. While I don't want to dismiss your claims completely your arguments seem very biased and not very logical in itself to me.

 

[Forever The Best]

I don't think roundabout is a Nibali fan.
Also:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1319370176438165518

View: https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1319370176438165518

 

[Forever The Best]

Also, it's not like me, or Red Rick are claiming that Nibali is clean.

 

[SafeBet]

But most of you claiming these times by Dennis/ Sunweb/ Ineos/ the youngsters are just hardcore Nibali-fans. And now you come here after stages where Nibali did not do so well, and claim that Nibali is as good as ever, just the other ones must be on some extraterrestrial new stuff. While I don't want to dismiss your claims completely your arguments seem very biased and not very logical in itself to me.

Nibali is not pushing his very best numbers, and a minor difference like 50 Mt in VAM (which is what I'd estimate between peak Nibali and today) actually translates to a lot of time in a 70 minute effort.

But this doesn't prove those performances are credible. The numbers are insane.