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Future GT Winner (Edition 2017)

Who will win a Grand Tour?

  • Esteban Chaves

    Votes: 24 18.5%
  • Ilnur Zakarin

    Votes: 36 27.7%
  • Miguel Ángel López

    Votes: 71 54.6%
  • Mikel Landa

    Votes: 78 60.0%
  • Richie Porte

    Votes: 30 23.1%
  • Rigoberto Urán

    Votes: 9 6.9%
  • Romain Bardet

    Votes: 20 15.4%
  • Thibaut Pinot

    Votes: 13 10.0%
  • Wilco Kelderman

    Votes: 17 13.1%
  • Wout Poels

    Votes: 14 10.8%

  • Total voters
    130
For the fifth consecutive year I'm organizing this poll on the question, "Who will win a Grand Tour in the future?" Last year Tom Dumoulin finished third with 13% of the votes, behind the Colombians Chaves and López. These are the previous winners:

2012 Christopher Froome (won Tour 2013)
2013 Nairo Quintana (won Giro 2014)
2014 Fabio Aru (won Vuelta 2015)
2015 Mikel Landa
2016 Esteban Chaves

You have more than one vote. Vote for anyone you expect to win a GT at some point in his career. If you have riders in mind who aren't in the poll you can mention them in the forum.
 
Pantani_lives said:
These are the previous winners:

2012 Christopher Froome (won Tour 2013)
2013 Nairo Quintana (won Giro 2014)
2014 Fabio Aru (won Vuelta 2015)
2015 Mikel Landa
2016 Esteban Chaves
Seems like the forum understands less and less about cycling :D

I picked Superman. Landa and Chaves have a good shot as well but they're not reliable enough, so not voting them.
All of the others are very far from winning a GT for different reasons.
 
Well, Lopez is the only young talent in the poll, the rest are rather well-established riders.

Anyone of them can win if the circumstances play to their favour but I voted for Lopez and Bardet.

Lopez simply because of the fact that we don't know yet what is his limit.

Bardet was already on the TdF podium 2 times. He can definetely win a Giro with right route and opposition. Maybe even a TdF is on the cards.

We're on the verge of a generation change. Contador has just retired, Froome and Nibali are probably quickly approaching the end of their peaks and Quintana suddenly doesn't look as convincing as in 2013-2015 period after failing to dominate Giro or Tour mountain stages for 2nd consecutive year. It's really hard to predict who will be winning GTs in 2-3 years IMO.
 
Re: Re:

jsem94 said:
Valv.Piti said:
Lopez and Landani for me, Landa already next year in the Giro and Lopez somewhere around 2019.
This for me. Don't really know if any of the others will ever be GT winners. We voted Chaves last year and he's great, but he's worse than Purito at TTs. Need to sort that out rapidly.
Wait, worse than Purito? Hmm.. :D I'd say they are about equally good, lets not forget some of Purito's absolutely horrible time trials, especially that one in 2010 in the red jersey, I think in Salamanca. That was one for the comic books.
 
Re: Re:

jsem94 said:
Valv.Piti said:
Lopez and Landani for me, Landa already next year in the Giro and Lopez somewhere around 2019.
This for me. Don't really know if any of the others will ever be GT winners. We voted Chaves last year and he's great, but he's worse than Purito at TTs. Need to sort that out rapidly.
In 1997 everyone would've voted Pantani (again) after his 3rd place at the Tour. So in 2017 Landani is the obvious pick. Next year's Giro must be his!
 
Re:

Anderis said:
We're on the verge of a generation change. Contador has just retired, Froome and Nibali are probably quickly approaching the end of their peaks and Quintana suddenly doesn't look as convincing as in 2013-2015 period after failing to dominate Giro or Tour mountain stages for 2nd consecutive year. It's really hard to predict who will be winning GTs in 2-3 years IMO.
This is true, but Quintana and Dumoulin are already accomplished riders. All the others born around 1990 need to start winning big races soon because another generation is knocking on the door.
 
Zakarin,Landa,Porte,Uran,Poels for me.Uran/Porte(if those injuries didn't destroyed him for good) looks good for now,while the others might need some time to get the win but they have the skills to do it.
G.Thomas if he can reach his pre Giro level might be good enough to challenge for a GT win.He should be in the poll.
 
When Zakarin becomes a real contender for a GC win, I can see his challengers destroying him on the downhills and gaining back crucial time, whereas right now, it's not worth it for most people to push on after dropping Zaka.

For that reason, MAL and Landa get my votes. I'd vote for Porte too if Froome was going for the Giro next year, but he's not, and by 2019, I suspect other young riders will be too good. Chaves and Bardet both need to learn to TT.

Also Bernal will win the 2018 or 2019 edition of this thread ;)
 
Re:

del1962 said:
The thing that goes against Lopez that with his descending he is highly suspect to an ambush, so he would need a strong team around him.

GT riders often progress in their descending as they grow older (and the same with TT'ing).
It happened a bit to Zakarin and Pinot and I think that Lopez is not as bad anyways as they were.
 
DBotero said:
Zakarin,Landa,Porte,Uran,Poels for me.Uran/Porte(if those injuries didn't destroyed him for good) looks good for now,while the others might need some time to get the win but they have the skills to do it.
G.Thomas if he can reach his pre Giro level might be good enough to challenge for a GT win.He should be in the poll.
In my eyes, they both lack something to convert placings into wins, regardless of their actual abilities.

Porte is subject to very bad days and his tactical sense is questionable, while Uran seems happy to settle for 2nd.
 
Alexandre B. said:
DBotero said:
Zakarin,Landa,Porte,Uran,Poels for me.Uran/Porte(if those injuries didn't destroyed him for good) looks good for now,while the others might need some time to get the win but they have the skills to do it.
G.Thomas if he can reach his pre Giro level might be good enough to challenge for a GT win.He should be in the poll.
In my eyes, they both lack something to convert placings into wins, regardless of their actual abilities.

Porte is subject to very bad days and his tactical sense is questionable, while Uran seems happy to settle for 2nd.

Don't know,but considering their abilities,that little step for converting them to results seems possible.
With Porte there is some randomness involved with his proverbial"luck" always there to hamper his chances.
Uran might change now that he's got his TDF podium and be more aggressive hopefully.
 
Re: Re:

Valv.Piti said:
jsem94 said:
Valv.Piti said:
Lopez and Landani for me, Landa already next year in the Giro and Lopez somewhere around 2019.
This for me. Don't really know if any of the others will ever be GT winners. We voted Chaves last year and he's great, but he's worse than Purito at TTs. Need to sort that out rapidly.
Wait, worse than Purito? Hmm.. :D I'd say they are about equally good, lets not forget some of Purito's absolutely horrible time trials, especially that one in 2010 in the red jersey, I think in Salamanca. That was one for the comic books.
What's Chaves' best ever TT? Purito actually did this once:
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=22127

And done well on very hilly Pais Vasco TTs too.
 
I don't see any as a near certainty to develop and win a GT as Froome and Quintana were in the season prior to winning their maiden GT. Porte is the most gifted but gets struck down by bad days or bad luck, Lopez and Zakarin will always be vulnerable to downhill attacks and Chaves, Bardet and Lopez need to massively improve their time trialling to go from podium places to the top step.