Future GT Winner (Edition 2017)

[Escarabajo]

The ship has sailed for some of these riders in the list.

Maybe Zakarin, MAL or Landa.

 

[Ruudz0r]

Poll gives a bit of a weird view, as you can vote for multiple guys but it adds up to 100%, so for example in reality more then 28% of the voters think Lopez will win a GT

 

[TMP402]

I went for Bardet, Landa, Lopez and Zakarin. To be fair, I should probably say I am confident Lopez will win a GT, I give Landa a better than 50% chance, and I could imagine Bardet and Zakarin winning. I don't regard them as equal favourites to do so.

Bardet has shown he is one Froome crash away from winning a Tour if there are few enough TTing kms. If he would target a different GT, maybe he would do even better there.

If Landa can get it together without crashing or ill-health for one Giro, I don't see who else could beat him - if the course suits him.

Lopez simply looks like the next big GT winner, easiest option to pick.

Zakarin had probably the third most impressive double GT season after Froome and Nibali - he came 5th and then 3rd. He has the skillset required to win a GT, and he's a few days away from turning 28 so he is possibly about to start his career peak. I can totally see him ninja-ing a Giro or Vuelta win.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re:

Call me crazy, but only Lopez will...

(I just checked last years poll and the only rider I chose then was Dumo. Sure enough, so far he is the only rider to have won a GT, so maybe it will be the same this year too)

Well, there was only 1 other GT winner than Froome this year. So hm

 

[Nick C.]

I voted for Lopez and Landa. Last year I probably voted for Pinot and Chavez. If the roles were reversed it is entirely possible that Poels would have won the Vuelta with Froome as his domestique.

 

[Ruby United]

Re:

Poll gives a bit of a weird view, as you can vote for multiple guys but it adds up to 100%, so for example in reality more then 28% of the voters think Lopez will win a GT

Good point.

 

[Ruby United]

Re:

I voted for Lopez and Landa. Last year I probably voted for Pinot and Chavez. If the roles were reversed it is entirely possible that Poels would have won the Vuelta with Froome as his domestique.

Nope. Poels had his standard bad first week, no domestique could have prevented that.

 

[Nirvana]

Next year Landa and Porte (and also Thomas) will have a chance.

 

[Nirvana]

Re: Re:

Lopez and Landani for me, Landa already next year in the Giro and Lopez somewhere around 2019.

This for me. Don't really know if any of the others will ever be GT winners. We voted Chaves last year and he's great, but he's worse than Purito at TTs. Need to sort that out rapidly.

Wait, worse than Purito? Hmm.. I'd say they are about equally good, lets not forget some of Purito's absolutely horrible time trials, especially that one in 2010 in the red jersey, I think in Salamanca. That was one for the comic books.

What's Chaves' best ever TT? Purito actually did this once:
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=22127

And done well on very hilly Pais Vasco TTs too.

That's not the best ITT of Purito, it's Chorges at the 2013 Tour where he was third only 10" behind Froome. In hilly route like this and those in Pais Vasco was pretty good, his problem was with the flat ones.

 

[savornin]

I voted Landa and Porte. The others are not allround enough (yet) to win a GT. Most of them COULD win a GT if circumstances are in their favour. Can't see Chaves, Kelderman and Pinot win a GT though...

 

[DNP-Old]

Egan Bernal.

 

[Red Rick]

My guess would be that between 1 and 1.5 GTs are won by first-time winners every year.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

My guess would be that between 1 and 1.5 GTs are won by first-time winners every year.

It is safe to assume that next year Giro will be won by a first timer. If Nibali decides to go to the Tour.

 

[Parker]

Re:

My guess would be that between 1 and 1.5 GTs are won by first-time winners every year.

2016 was the first year since 2005 without a debut winner

 

[Brullnux]

I voted Landa, Lopez, Chaves and Pinot. I'm not confident about Chaves, but Landa and Lopez should win a GT. Landa soon, and Lopez eventually. I feel Pinot has a very good chance as he is a decent climber and can TT well (sometimes) as well. He was only 1:17 off Dumoulin at the Giro, and ahead of Zakarin, so he isn't too far off currently. His main problem is consistency, especially after a rest day. Zakarin will podium a lot of times I feel but I don't see him winning.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Mikel Landa, two-times top-10 finisher in ten GTs, better has to live up to this giant-slash-insane hype surrounding him.

 

[Jspear]

I'll vote for Lopez in this same poll next year. I definitely think he has the potential to win a GT. I'm gonna pick two who I think could win a GT next year. Landa and Porte. I really think Landa can win the Giro next year. He just needs a little bit of good luck. Same for Porte. He was very strong this year. He has his fair share of haters who think he'll never win a gt, but imo, he can beat Froome.

 

[SafeBet]

Re: Re:

My guess would be that between 1 and 1.5 GTs are won by first-time winners every year.

2016 was the first year since 2005 without a debut winner

At the same time, 13 of the last 16 GTs have been won by 4 riders.

 

[Gigs_98]

I voted Landa and MAL. Landa because I think he'll have two very good chances next year where he probably won't have the strongest competition (assuming he rides Giro-Vuelta) and MAL because he looks extremely talented and I just think it's not likely that in the probably around 10 good season he has left he won't win one single GT.

I'm not confident about guys like Chaves, Zakarin, Kelderman and Pinot though. I think that out of the the generation between 25 and 30 only Landa and guys who have already won gt's (Dumoulin, Aru and Quintana) look like typical gt winners while this generation could very soon be replaced by the younger generation, which looks a bit stronger right now. Bardet is the big exception here. I think he is better than the guys mentioned above but he has the problem of being french which means that he will probably ride the tdf in most cases. If he'd focus giro-vuelta instead I think he'd have a decent chance to win one, just like Aru did in 2015.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

As I said last year, the problem with these polls is that Vuelta wins (and occasionally but much less often Giro wins) can be nearly random. There are thirty or forty riders in the peloton who could get very lucky in a Vuelta, including all of the above.

 

[Tour_de_Calvados]

I voted Miguel Ángel Lopez, as others have said the only one I can feel confident will win a GT. He was so impressive on more diesel type climbs in la Vuelta and his time trial doesn't seem as bad as others (Chaves, Bardet). Have we ever seen Landa ride as GC leader yet? Giro '15 he was super impressive riding for Aru, Vuelta '15 still riding for Aru, ill at the Giro in 2016, domestique for Froome in TdF '16, crashed Giro '17 and very strong afterwards while not riding for GC. This year's Tour he was super strong but riding for Froome - I forgot he came 15th in the final ITT so maybe he gets a vote as well.

 

[Leinster]

Re:

As I said last year, the problem with these polls is that Vuelta wins (and occasionally but much less often Giro wins) can be nearly random. There are thirty or forty riders in the peloton who could get very lucky in a Vuelta, including all of the above.

The Horner Conundrum. There's a solid-but-not-special mountain domestique in a mid-range team somewhere just trying to get selected for the big races, who doesn't know it yet, but he's going to win the 2020 Giro.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I don't agree with the feeling that the new generation looks stronger than the 90 guys.

Many of the younger guys seem almost all near climbing only, and make the same impression guys like Pinot and Bardet made at really young age.
Heck if you start with the 'young impression' riders. Gesink at age 20/21 was a monster for that age. Look how that ended up.

It's dangerous to claim generation x is stronger than generation y. At the end they still have to keep their growth curve. Some might top out fast. Others might grow more slowly.

2 years ago we thought Dumoulin would be a TT Specialist like Martin who might win some Eneco Tour and some classics, but definitely not GT's. And then the Vuelta happened and look were it evolved from there. Even then people didn't believe he could win a GT, not even at the Giro start. Not even the most blind fans like me.

I'm just saying. Predictions are very dangerous to make at such a young age with the new generation (Lopez, Gaudu, etc)

 

[Durden93]

I voted Landa. He can win the Giro next year if given leadership. His showing in the mountains was remarkable.

 

[LeChuck]

I'm surprised by the high score of Zakarin. Good GC rider sure, but I've never seen him show the potential to win a grand tour. Again at this vuelta, his result was achieve by being in the second tier of gc contenders, with nobody pushing the several times he was dropped, up or down