Future GT Winner (Edition 2017)

[Ruby United]

Re:

Mikel Landa, two-times top-10 finisher in ten GTs, better has to live up to this giant-slash-insane hype surrounding him.

We first discovered Landa as a GT talent in the 2015 Giro.
He rode nearly all the 2015 Giro as a domestique
He rode the 2015 Vuelta as a domestique
He DNF'd the 2016 Giro due to bad illness
He rode the 2016 Tour as a domestique
He crashed in the 2017 Giro
He rode the 2017 Tour as a domestique

So, the way I see it, Landa has gotten a podium in a GT and just missed a podium in the Tour having never ridden a full GT for GC.
That deserves insane hype, in my opinion.

 

[Ruby United]

Re:

As I said last year, the problem with these polls is that Vuelta wins (and occasionally but much less often Giro wins) can be nearly random. There are thirty or forty riders in the peloton who could get very lucky in a Vuelta, including all of the above.

In every Vuelta in the last 15 years the winner has been a world class talent and multiple GT podium'er except for twice.

 

[Tonton]

Re:

I don't agree with the feeling that the new generation looks stronger than the 90 guys.

Many of the younger guys seem almost all near climbing only, and make the same impression guys like Pinot and Bardet made at really young age.
Heck if you start with the 'young impression' riders. Gesink at age 20/21 was a monster for that age. Look how that ended up.

It's dangerous to claim generation x is stronger than generation y. At the end they still have to keep their growth curve. Some might top out fast. Others might grow more slowly.

2 years ago we thought Dumoulin would be a TT Specialist like Martin who might win some Eneco Tour and some classics, but definitely not GT's. And then the Vuelta happened and look were it evolved from there. Even then people didn't believe he could win a GT, not even at the Giro start. Not even the most blind fans like me.

I'm just saying. Predictions are very dangerous to make at such a young age with the new generation (Lopez, Gaudu, etc)

Excellent points: looking back at the Giro predictions or 2017 predictions with the top-3 of each GT, Dumoulin had very little votes. And that's coming from a crowd here that has some knowledge and in some cases great knowledge of cycling. What do we know?

Having said that, in today's cycling, earpieces and super teams, the best ITT guy will prevail unless you shrink time-trials to be a loop around a supermarket parking lot. Le Tour has the strongest field, and that's where a dominating team makes a difference. Dumoulin '17 is better than Froome '17 IMO, but against the best Sky lineup, he would lose.

Organizers want suspense, but if you artificially design the race to keep riders who don't belong in the mix, it becomes...a lottery.

FWIW, with any GT with a "decent" amount of ITT (50km+ - not long ago 100km was the standard), for non GT winners to get one, the list is small: you have Wilco, Zakarin, and Pinot. Maybe Landa.

My $0.02.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

Mikel Landa, two-times top-10 finisher in ten GTs, better has to live up to this giant-slash-insane hype surrounding him.

We first discovered Landa as a GT talent in the 2015 Giro.
He rode nearly all the 2015 Giro as a domestique
He rode the 2015 Vuelta as a domestique
He DNF'd the 2016 Giro due to bad illness
He rode the 2016 Tour as a domestique
He crashed in the 2017 Giro
He rode the 2017 Tour as a domestique

So, the way I see it, Landa has gotten a podium in a GT and just missed a podium in the Tour having never ridden a full GT for GC.
That deserves insane hype, in my opinion.

The 2016 Giro was a fair game. Illness is part of physiology. If that was the reason after that monster time trial.
I agree with the other attempts.

 

[Escarabajo]

Of course predictions could be silly. But we cannot discuss those things in this forum.

Natural peaks can be also meaningless for clinic reasons.

 

[StryderHells]

Re:

I'm surprised by the high score of Zakarin. Good GC rider sure, but I've never seen him show the potential to win a grand tour. Again at this vuelta, his result was achieve by being in the second tier of gc contenders, with nobody pushing the several times he was dropped, up or down

Zakarin is improving as GT rider, this season is the first time he's finished inside the top 10 of a GT which he did twice with a 5th at the Giro and a 3rd at the Vuelta. He isn't absolute top shelf but you don't need to be to win a GT, one of his biggest problems is his team which just doesn't have the firepower to support him.

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

I'm surprised by the high score of Zakarin. Good GC rider sure, but I've never seen him show the potential to win a grand tour. Again at this vuelta, his result was achieve by being in the second tier of gc contenders, with nobody pushing the several times he was dropped, up or down

Zakarin is improving as GT rider, this season is the first time he's finished inside the top 10 of a GT which he did twice with a 5th at the Giro and a 3rd at the Vuelta. He isn't absolute top shelf but you don't need to be to win a GT, one of his biggest problems is his team which just doesn't have the firepower to support him.

We'll see what his team is like next year. They've signed a young talent Stefan Cras. He's done real well in the U23 races. They've also signed Ian Boswell from Sky. Anyone from Sky knows how to hit perfect top form.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re: Re:

As I said last year, the problem with these polls is that Vuelta wins (and occasionally but much less often Giro wins) can be nearly random. There are thirty or forty riders in the peloton who could get very lucky in a Vuelta, including all of the above.

In every Vuelta in the last 15 years the winner has been a world class talent and multiple GT podium'er except for twice.

Sure, but in the last seven years, four GTs have been won by an outsider. Two of them being Vueltas won by riders who neither before nor after came close to troubling the top 5 of a GT at any point in their career. Riders with inferior records not just to the kind of riders in this poll, but to Peter Velits.

 

[Durden93]

Re: Re:

As I said last year, the problem with these polls is that Vuelta wins (and occasionally but much less often Giro wins) can be nearly random. There are thirty or forty riders in the peloton who could get very lucky in a Vuelta, including all of the above.

In every Vuelta in the last 15 years the winner has been a world class talent and multiple GT podium'er except for twice.

In the last seven years, four GTs have been won by an outsider. Two of them being Vueltas won by riders who neither before nor after came close to troubling the top 5 of a GT at any point in their career.

4/21 isn't a high sucess rate for outsiders.

 

[movingtarget]

Podiums are usually dominated by the same group of riders in each era. Sometimes you will get a surprise winner like Pereiro in extreme circumstances in 2006. The 2014 Tour had a surprise podium because of crashes. i can't see Chaves or Zakarin winning in the next few years even though they have podiumed. Dumoulin was a surprise but not a complete one. I think Landa could be the next first time winner but he will need a course with a lot of MTFs and not much TT. I would like to say Porte but he is running out of time and still struggles to finish GTs or avoid problems. Kind of reminds me of Gesink when Gesink was seen to be a possible contender. If Uran can find his old TT form he might be an outside chance as well but he won't win on a really difficult course. Lopez is probably a few years away at least,but seems to have the talent to do it. Bardet is possible as well but he can't climb as well as Landa and his TT is usually mediocre so it will be difficult for him because he climbs well but doesn't dominate in the mountains. Pinot rode a good Giro but consistency seems to be his problem in a three week race. Podium yes but a win is a stretch at least based on recent form.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re: Re:

FWIW, with any GT with a "decent" amount of ITT (50km+ - not long ago 100km was the standard), for non GT winners to get one, the list is small: you have Wilco, Zakarin, and Pinot. Maybe Landa.

My $0.02.

I knew that Pinot would somehow sneak into your conclusion, albeit unobtrusively.

A difference with the past is that the gaps in mountain stages aren't as big as they used to be. It's hardly an individual battle anymore if one team has five riders in an elite group of fifteen on the final climb. If there was still 100 km of time trial it would simply be impossible to win a GT for someone who doesn't excell in that discipline.

EDIT: The promotion for a plus size fashion line was unintentional.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

FWIW, with any GT with a "decent" amount of ITT (50km+ - not long ago 100km was the standard), for non GT winners to get one, the list is small: you have Wilco, Zakarin, and Pinot. Maybe Landa.

My $0.02.

I knew that Pinot would somehow sneak into your conclusion, albeit unobtrusively.

A difference with the past is that the gaps in mountain stages aren't as big as they used to be. It's hardly an individual battle anymore if one team has five riders in an elite group of fifteen on the final climb. If there was still 100 km of time trial it would simply be impossible to win a GT for someone who doesn't excell in that discipline.

EDIT: The promotion for a plus size fashion line was unintentional.

If you make it a double space it goes away

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re: Re:

If you make it a double space it goes away

Thanks, it was kind of funny.

 

[Mozart92]

I'd love to see Froome trying to win the Giro and inherit the Sky curse with Landa finally taking the Pink XD

 

[LaFlorecita]

I voted for Chavito, Superman Lopez, Zaka, Landa and TiboPino. Maybe I am a bit too optimistic.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

I voted for Chavito, Superman Lopez, Zaka, Landa and TiboPino. Maybe I am a bit too optimistic.

Ugh yeah, I definitely think you are. I can see the first 4 winning, but I really can't see Thibaut winning (or being close) at any other GT than the Giro. He would have to be extremely lucky IMO, something like Hesjedal in 2012.

Chavito can win a relatively strong Giro/Vuelta in peak shape with the right route. So can Zakarin, Landa and Lopez (and Tour in the future, probably)

 

[Brullnux]

Why is Zakarin so much more popular than Pinot? I mean, objectively, they should be similar: same age, and Pinot beat Zakarin earlier this year. So why the discrepancy?

 

[Alexandre B.]

Re:

Why is Zakarin so much more popular than Pinot? I mean, objectively, they should be similar: same age, and Pinot beat Zakarin earlier this year. So why the discrepancy?

The last impression.

 

[portugal11]

Re:

Why is Zakarin so much more popular than Pinot? I mean, objectively, they should be similar: same age, and Pinot beat Zakarin earlier this year. So why the discrepancy?

Zaka is improving year after year. I really doubt pinot can do better than his performance in the 2017 giro.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

Why is Zakarin so much more popular than Pinot? I mean, objectively, they should be similar: same age, and Pinot beat Zakarin earlier this year. So why the discrepancy?

Zaka is improving year after year. I really doubt pinot can do better than his performance in the 2017 giro.

This Giro was Pinot's best performance. Why does Zaka have room to improve further but Pinot doesnt? Plus Pinot isn't going to get dropped like a stone on every descent once he becomes a genuine threat on GC

 

[skippo12]

Re: Re:

Why is Zakarin so much more popular than Pinot? I mean, objectively, they should be similar: same age, and Pinot beat Zakarin earlier this year. So why the discrepancy?

Zaka is improving year after year. I really doubt pinot can do better than his performance in the 2017 giro.

This Giro was Pinot's best performance. Why does Zaka have room to improve further but Pinot doesnt? Plus Pinot isn't going to get dropped like a stone on every descent once he becomes a genuine threat on GC

Although Pinot improved his downhill skills are still bad. The only reason why he isn`t losing lots of time anymore is that his team figured out that they have to take the lead before the descent. In most situations he slowly lost positions but wasn`t dropped like Zakarin. Katusha needs to be smarter...in Pinots worst days he used to attack and gain 15s to prevent a time lose in the descent.

 

[Tonton]

Re: Re:

Why is Zakarin so much more popular than Pinot? I mean, objectively, they should be similar: same age, and Pinot beat Zakarin earlier this year. So why the discrepancy?

Zaka is improving year after year. I really doubt pinot can do better than his performance in the 2017 giro.

This Giro was Pinot's best performance. Why does Zaka have room to improve further but Pinot doesnt? Plus Pinot isn't going to get dropped like a stone on every descent once he becomes a genuine threat on GC

Plus on a descent, I'd take Pinot over Zakarin anyway .

portugal11 had to be his usual grouchy portugal11 and go with a stab: normal after he lost all his bets with me in '17...Strade...Giro... How about another one, portugal11? Tibopino will podium the GDL. So it shall be written, and so it shall be done .

in this thread, Zakarin is becoming the Black Album...

 

[portugal11]

Re: Re:

Why is Zakarin so much more popular than Pinot? I mean, objectively, they should be similar: same age, and Pinot beat Zakarin earlier this year. So why the discrepancy?

Zaka is improving year after year. I really doubt pinot can do better than his performance in the 2017 giro.

This Giro was Pinot's best performance. Why does Zaka have room to improve further but Pinot doesnt? Plus Pinot isn't going to get dropped like a stone on every descent once he becomes a genuine threat on GC

Zakarin is a bad descender but pinot is a bad descender too. Don't know who is the worse

 

[Tonton]

Not taking my bet ?

 

[portugal11]

Re: Re:

Why is Zakarin so much more popular than Pinot? I mean, objectively, they should be similar: same age, and Pinot beat Zakarin earlier this year. So why the discrepancy?

Zaka is improving year after year. I really doubt pinot can do better than his performance in the 2017 giro.

This Giro was Pinot's best performance. Why does Zaka have room to improve further but Pinot doesnt? Plus Pinot isn't going to get dropped like a stone on every descent once he becomes a genuine threat on GC

Plus on a descent, I'd take Pinot over Zakarin anyway .

portugal11 had to be his usual grouchy portugal11 and go with a stab: normal after he lost all his bets with me in '17...Strade...Giro... How about another one, portugal11? Tibopino will podium the GDL. So it shall be written, and so it shall be done .

in this thread, Zakarin is becoming the Black Album...

Grouchy? Realist... Next year he will do le tour and he won't be top5. I agree with you about zakarin, I think he is a little bit overrated, even his aggressiveness is overrated.
I won't bet with you because the starlist in lombardia is usual weak compared with other monuments.
I didn't lose the giro bet. I said that pinot wouldn't do top5 in giro (and he did) but you said that he would top3 (and he didn't), so no one won