Future GT Winner (Edition 2018)

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Who will win a Grand Tour?

  • Egan Bernal

    Votes: 86 83.5%
  • Enric Mas

    Votes: 70 68.0%
  • Miguel Ángel López

    Votes: 43 41.7%
  • Mikel Landa

    Votes: 10 9.7%
  • Primož Roglič

    Votes: 69 67.0%
  • Richard Carapaz

    Votes: 7 6.8%
  • Richie Porte

    Votes: 3 2.9%
  • Romain Bardet

    Votes: 2 1.9%
  • Thibaut Pinot

    Votes: 6 5.8%
  • Steven Kruijswijk

    Votes: 8 7.8%

  • Total voters
    103
Mas and Bergan will win the TDF one day, maybe more as long as they have good support. I think Lopez might be the first to win a GT out of the three, but doubt he wins the TDF at this point. Depends on the parcours for Lopez. If Mas truly has Contador-esque talent, he will win a lot after the Froome Era is definitively over. Right now Bernal looks like a sure winner. My only concern is whether his trajectory follows the Nairo model of career peak.
 
It’s looking more likely that Porte will never win a GT. Pinot, Bardet, Landa and Kruijswijk are starting to run out of time with some of the new young guns arriving.

Couldn’t choose Lopez, unless he changes his way of racing he’s not going to win a GT. That leaves Bernal, Mas and Roglic who are all showing the right signs IMO.

From left field - Jack Haig, if Matt White dares to let him off the leash, but I don’t think Haig realises how good he actually is yet.
 
Re: Re:

Hugo Koblet said:
staubsauger said:
Levi Leipheimer is more likely to still win a grand tour than Porte! :eek:

Roglic actually might be too centered around the Tour de France. If Jumbo sends him & Kruijswijk with full forces to the Giro d'Italia though, he's no.1 favorite!

Bernal probably gets team leadership or at least co-leadership at the Giro in which case he's a good candidate.

Landa's chances just increased with Quintana doing the Tour again, which opens the door for being co-leader with Valverde in Italy.

Mas might stand a chance in a somewhat slimmer Vuelta field regarding fresh riders. He's been second this year and carries around a more than decent TT after all.

Kruijswijk remains a dark horse as the Giro d'Italia really favors his capabilities.
Regarding Roglic, this is my concern as well. However, he's much younger than Froome and Thomas and then there's only, currently at least, Dumoulin who's a better time trialist than him.
I can see Roglic finishing 2nd/3rd in a Tour behind Yates/Dumoulin/Bernal and then going out and bossing a Vuelta straight after. So even if he might seem a bit TdF-centric right now, he won’t necessarily be throwing all his eggs in the basket.
 
Roglic and Mas are the two I voted for. Roglic seems to be the most likely. Mas, Lopez, Bernal all need to improve their TTs. Landa is a huge question mark. Who knows if he goes to the Giro with Valverde he might actually be able to win it.
 

Singer01

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hfer07 said:
Bernal is the obvious option BUT I doubt he'll get a change at SKY as long as Froome, G & any UK rider gets priority....
He's got years and years, G and Froome have max 2 years left. The time he puts in under grand tour winners in a team with a winning mentality will be invaluable.
 
I voted for Bernal, Roglic, Mas, Kruijswijk and Lopez.
But this is the first time I can see all of the options with a chance to win a GT in the future if stars align.
I won't comment on the most voted riders but a I'll give a few thoughts on the others.

Steven Kruijswijk: surprised he wasn't voted more. He's never been as consistent as this year and Jumbo looks excellent as a whole. 5th in the Tour and 4th in the Vuelta, both races had abysmal routes for his skillset. Call me crazy but if he starts next year Giro in this shape he's my favourite to win it. Yes, even against S. Yates.

Mikel Landa: nothing I've seen in 2018 changed my opinion him. He was badly injured during the Tour and still finished 7th. Talent is there. He needs luck and some proper mountain stages. Can win the Giro. The only reason I didn't vote for him is because I believe he can't cope with pressure.

Thibaut Pinot: the most human GT rider atm. Reminds me of Cadel Evans at times (of course without the TT ability). Very inconsistent and prone to sickness, but he's been very close to a podium in the Giro twice. I didn't vote for him because I don't think it's likely, but he can win a Giro with a poor starting field.

Romain Bardet: needs to focus on different GTs, has all the tools to win a Vuelta in my opinion. Didn't vote for him because being French he'll keep riding the Tour.

Richard Carapaz: interesting case, I this his performance in the Giro was somehow underrated because of his antics. Still very young, considering he turned pro relatively late. I don't think we can assess his overall value yet, very hard to predict.

Richie Porte: the least likely to win a GT among these 10, but it's far from impossible. Should focus on the Vuelta (less pressure, easier route). Don't think it'll happen so I didn't vote for him.
 
Carols said:
LaFlorecita said:
Voted Bernal, Mas, Lopez and Roglic.
I've voted Pinot and Bardet in the past but I don't see it happening anymore with the next generation coming up.
OMG my exact votes! I've given up on all the others.

EDIT: Now that I've read the entire thread it seems those 4 are high on Many lists!
Yeah, the one of your riders with least votes still has more votes than the six other riders combined :D
 

Singer01

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I have no idea why MAL has so many more votes than Landa, other than he appears to be able to get through grand tours unscathed. His skillset is similar but inferior to Landa.
 
Re:

Singer01 said:
I have no idea why MAL has so many more votes than Landa, other than he appears to be able to get through grand tours unscathed. His skillset is similar but inferior to Landa.
Lopez is more suited to GT racing and has better results already.

Landa 2015 is long gone, by the way. He's no better than Bardet.
 
There really is a generation change in gt cycling right now. It feels like most of the top tier riders are over 30 and there are a lot of riders who have shown their gt winning potential for the first time this year and will take over soon. Even Yates and Roglic who aren't as young as Lopez, Mas, Carapaz or Bernal weren't really seen as future gt winners prior to this season while the ones who have been seen as the stars of the future a few years back (Bardet, Landa, Pinot, Chaves, Aru, Quintana,...) still haven't managed to overtake the Froome, Nibali, Porte (still hasn't come close to winning a gt but just climbing wise he is probably top 3 in the world), Thomas generation and will probably never win a gt (again in Aru's and Quintana's case). It really feels like the only rider who was in that Landa, Bardet, Quintana generation a few years back and still absolutely delivers is Dumoulin and I can see him staying on top for 6-7 more years.

As most others I picked Bernal (the talent this kid has is unreal) Mas (considering how close to winning he already was this year with 23) and Roglic (riders with a TT as great as his will always have a good shot at winning a TT heavy race at some point). Not sure about Lopez as he hasn't really improved since last year and even last year he wasn't that much better than in 2016. I fear he has peaked early, like many Colombians, and won't make that last step he will probably need to not only get podiums but also wins.
 
Re:

Koronin said:
Roglic and Mas are the two I voted for. Roglic seems to be the most likely. Mas, Lopez, Bernal all need to improve their TTs. Landa is a huge question mark. Who knows if he goes to the Giro with Valverde he might actually be able to win it.
Lopez needs to improve his TT, but i doubt he will. He is still a contender for a low-profile edition of the Vuelta or Giro, just like Giro 2012.

Mas his TT is already better than that of Yates (he was 6th in the Vuelta ITT), so i don't really know where that's coming from. Bernal isn't a TT specialist, but he doesn't suck at them either.
 
The consensus seems to be that four riders have a good chance of winning a GT in the future: Bernal, Roglic, Mas and MAL. The future will tell who is overhyped and who will really become a dominant force. When a young rider has one or two good results he's often declared the next Tour winner, the next Merckx etc. It's not easy to confirm a good start though. He needs to make further progression in the mountains and the time trials, be consistent over three weeks, live like a monk, avoid crashes, have discipline and have a team around him that's willing to go through the fire.
 
I'm not sure about Mas yet. It looks very promising and this Vuelta was astounding, but I need to see more. I mean, the Vuelta was his only grand tour of the season (he was supposed to do the Giro too, though) and we have seen time and time again that freshness plays a huge role in the last GT of the year. At the same time, his ITT is still a question mark to me as well. He was never bad by any instance, but he was never *this* good either. Not in the youth ranks, not in his two years as a pro either. Lefevere said that it's the plan to do the Giro-Vuelta double next year, then we'll really see wether he can be a future grand tour winner.

Superman I'm sceptical about. I don't think he'll ever be able to out-climb everyone to make up for his horrendous time trial. In addition, he keeps leaking time in short, explosive finishes. He very much could win a Vuelta or two, but the field and course need to be in his favour.

I'm going with Egan for obvious reasons, and I'll take Roglic* as well. Asterisk for Roglic because he very much has the capabilities and then some, but I'm not sure focusing purely on the TDF is going to cut it.
 

Singer01

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Re: Re:

Alexandre B. said:
Singer01 said:
I have no idea why MAL has so many more votes than Landa, other than he appears to be able to get through grand tours unscathed. His skillset is similar but inferior to Landa.
Lopez is more suited to GT racing and has better results already.

Landa 2015 is long gone, by the way. He's no better than Bardet.
3,3 is so much better than 3,4? MAL has gotten through both as team leader with no issues, Landa has never had that.
 

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