Future GT Winner (Edition 2018)

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Who will win a Grand Tour?

  • Egan Bernal

    Votes: 86 83.5%
  • Enric Mas

    Votes: 70 68.0%
  • Miguel Ángel López

    Votes: 43 41.7%
  • Mikel Landa

    Votes: 10 9.7%
  • Primož Roglič

    Votes: 69 67.0%
  • Richard Carapaz

    Votes: 7 6.8%
  • Richie Porte

    Votes: 3 2.9%
  • Romain Bardet

    Votes: 2 1.9%
  • Thibaut Pinot

    Votes: 6 5.8%
  • Steven Kruijswijk

    Votes: 8 7.8%

  • Total voters
    103
Re:

Cookster15 said:
I wonder how Bernal would have fared if he rode? I doubt he would be better than Carapaz, Nibali or even Landa uphill though. Top 5 I guess.
I actually think he would have won. Wouldn't be shocked if he was the worlds strongest climber right now
 
It's hard to say. For sure Bernal could have matched Carapaz uphill and he would have done better in the time trials, but who knows, he might have let Carapaz ride just like Roglic and Nibali, and I'm not sure he would have been strong enough to drop him on some other occasions.
 
Re: Re:

Gigs_98 said:
Cookster15 said:
I wonder how Bernal would have fared if he rode? I doubt he would be better than Carapaz, Nibali or even Landa uphill though. Top 5 I guess.
I actually think he would have won. Wouldn't be shocked if he was the worlds strongest climber right now
Honestly while there is no doubt Bernal is a great climber there has been absolutely 0 indication he is the best in the world right now. He could not drop Quintana in PN and wasn't the best in Catalunya either.

While it's possible would have been stronger than Carapaz I would not blindly assume that. I imagine Bernal would've done better in the ITTs but I think Nibali and Roglic would have freaked out a lot more if Bernal had been there with Carapaz on the way to Courmayeur and Lago Serru.

For me Dumoulin is the bigger what if this Giro cause I'm convinced he'd have done better than Roglic everywhere from the 2nd ITT onwards and he had absolutely no team to back him up.
 
Re: Re:

Red Rick said:
Gigs_98 said:
Cookster15 said:
I wonder how Bernal would have fared if he rode? I doubt he would be better than Carapaz, Nibali or even Landa uphill though. Top 5 I guess.
I actually think he would have won. Wouldn't be shocked if he was the worlds strongest climber right now
Honestly while there is no doubt Bernal is a great climber there has been absolutely 0 indication he is the best in the world right now. He could not drop Quintana in PN and wasn't the best in Catalunya either.

While it's possible would have been stronger than Carapaz I would not blindly assume that. I imagine Bernal would've done better in the ITTs but I think Nibali and Roglic would have freaked out a lot more if Bernal had been there with Carapaz on the way to Courmayeur and Lago Serru.

For me Dumoulin is the bigger what if this Giro cause I'm convinced he'd have done better than Roglic everywhere from the 2nd ITT onwards and he had absolutely no team to back him up.
Dumoulin's team would not have been much better than Roglic's. Roglic lost De Plus and couldn't bring Gesink. But Dumoulin couldn't bring Kelderman and would have lost Oomen and Vervaeke too. I think in the time of need, Dumoulin would have been just as isolated as Roglic was. Not to mention Oomen was nowhere near last year's level.

If he would have been better... who knows. Possibly. As for Bernal, i agree that we haven't had a real benchmark in a GT were all contenders were in top shape. So it's difficult. However, he impressed me last year in the TDF and is a year older now. So it's quite possible he would have been able to follow Carapaz, and maybe Nibali wouldn't have given him the time (unlike Carapaz). But i agree, we can't say for sure.

Interesting comment yesterday by Karsten Kroon on Eurosport. Apparently Nibali ordered his team to put the pressure on De Plus in order to eliminate De Plus, who was sick at the time. They succeeded and De Plus went home, leaving Roglic without his right-hand-man. Had BM not done that, and had De Plus been there in the stage that Carapaz basically won the Giro, it's likely that De Plus would have maintained the tempo, preventing Carapaz from taking so much "free time" and Nibali would probably have won the Giro.
 
Dumoulin only did a tactical play once in the Giro 17. He took responsability for the most part in both 17 and 18. So that's BS and you know it. Or did you forget your south american friends wheelsucking last year in the Giro 18? Yeah, the ones following Dumoulin doing 70% of the work and then attacking on the last climb?
 
Chill Dekker, don't have to get upset. One stage of cat and mouse was all it took. And it would have been enough in this year's Giro as well. That was stage 14. So if you don't have a strong team you are still exposed. Whether you like it or not.

In other instances he couldn't do the cat and mouse because there wasn't a chance for it. In the queen stage he had to go to the bathroom. Towards the end he was always on the backfoot. So kind of a moot point except for one stage where almost the Giro escaped from them because of the Pinot attack. So nothing tells me that he would not have done the same with Carapaz.

Why you bring the 2018 to discussion? yes Lopez and Carapaz (South American friends) wheelsucked Dumoulin but there was no reason for them to work because they had their own battle. I hate to see that as well, but they were only playing their game and most likely the coaches would have told them the same on the radio.

I also hated the fact that Dumoulin and Bernal were missing, but unless they had a strong teams they would have been fooled by Carapaz as well.
 
Re:

Escarabajo said:
Chill Dekker, don't have to get upset. One stage of cat and mouse was all it took. And it would have been enough in this year's Giro as well. That was stage 14. So if you don't have a strong team you are still exposed. Whether you like it or not.

In other instances he couldn't do the cat and mouse because there wasn't a chance for it. In the queen stage he had to go to the bathroom. Towards the end he was always on the backfoot. So kind of a moot point except for one stage where almost the Giro escaped from them because of the Pinot attack. So nothing tells me that he would not have done the same with Carapaz.

Why you bring the 2018 to discussion? yes Lopez and Carapaz (South American friends) wheelsucked Dumoulin but there was no reason for them to work because they had their own battle. I hate to see that as well, but they were only playing their game and most likely the coaches would have told them the same on the radio.

I also hated the fact that Dumoulin and Bernal were missing, but unless they had a strong teams they would have been fooled by Carapaz as well.
95% he'd have worked to limit the gap after San Carlo
5% chance he'd have been dropped on the San Carlo and still would have gone full gas to the line
 
Re:

Escarabajo said:
Chill Dekker, don't have to get upset. One stage of cat and mouse was all it took. And it would have been enough in this year's Giro as well. That was stage 14. So if you don't have a strong team you are still exposed. Whether you like it or not.

In other instances he couldn't do the cat and mouse because there wasn't a chance for it. In the queen stage he had to go to the bathroom. Towards the end he was always on the backfoot. So kind of a moot point except for one stage where almost the Giro escaped from them because of the Pinot attack. So nothing tells me that he would not have done the same with Carapaz.

Why you bring the 2018 to discussion? yes Lopez and Carapaz (South American friends) wheelsucked Dumoulin but there was no reason for them to work because they had their own battle. I hate to see that as well, but they were only playing their game and most likely the coaches would have told them the same on the radio.

I also hated the fact that Dumoulin and Bernal were missing, but unless they had a strong teams they would have been fooled by Carapaz as well.


you may or may not have had a sly dig at Saint Tom
 
Re:

Escarabajo said:
Well, he didn't do it in 2017 Red.

This all sounds like romanticism to me and something that we want to believe it would have happened.
Dumoulin had dropped all of Zakarin, Pozzovivo and Pinot multiple times that Giro already.

Carapaz had already taken a lot of time back and had just dropped Roglic and Nibali again. Mortirolo had yet to come up and the last ITT was short. I think Dumoulin would have backed himself to not get dropped in the finale.

After the finish, peak banter with Nibali woudl have happened.
 
Re:

Escarabajo said:
With Dumoulin it would have been 3 men watching each other instead of 2. :D LOL. Kind of like Giro 2017 but without Carapaz.
I think Dumoulin would have “learned” from last year. If he had just TT’ed to the finish at Sappada (when Froome was dropped) and after Finestre (when Froome was ahead) and ignored Carapaz and Lopez, he would have won the Giro.

Too many variables in this Giro to say that “if Tom was there, he would have won,” but I doubt he would have let a genuine threat like Carapaz (and as much as he was a surprise winner, everyone did consider him a threat when he attacked) just go up the road.
 
Is this the right place to ask, what was the last year when all 3 GT winners were 1st timers? Or how often does that happen?

Edit: To answer my own question, the last time appears to be 2011, Scarponi, Evans and Froome. This held even before Cobo was DQ’ed from the Vuelta.
 
Reactions: Pantani_lives
Is this the right place to ask, what was the last year when all 3 GT winners were 1st timers? Or how often does that happen?

Edit: To answer my own question, the last time appears to be 2011, Scarponi, Evans and Froome. This held even before Cobo was DQ’ed from the Vuelta.
Has there ever been a year when all the winners were the first winner from their nation. I would assume this has never happened before.
 
Has there ever been a year when all the winners were the first winner from their nation. I would assume this has never happened before.
1987. Herrera (Vuelta) and Roche (Giro and Tour) were the first from their nation to win ANY GT.

If you combine that with Lemond’s 1986 Tour win, and Kelly and Hampsten’s 88 Vuelta and Giro titles, you have 6 GTs in a row won by country-first-timers.
 
Surely he was only the first Irishman to win a GT when he won the Giro.
Well to this day he's still the first Irishman ever to win a GT. That didn't change just because he won another GT.

But yes, Roche's TdF win wasn't Ireland's first ever GT win, as he himself had won the Giro earlier that year.

However, Tigerion's question, to which I was replying, was "Has there ever been a year when all the winners were the first winner from their nation. I would assume this has never happened before."

If that relates to 2019, then while Carapaz and Roglic are both the first winners of ANY GT from their nation, Bernal is only the first Tour de France winner from his nation; Colombia have previous wins in the Vuelta and Giro.

So 1987 still stands as the only year when all 3 Grand Tours were won by riders from countries that had never won a Grand Tour before.
 
Reactions: Pantani_lives
Well to this day he's still the first Irishman ever to win a GT. That didn't change just because he won another GT.

But yes, Roche's TdF win wasn't Ireland's first ever GT win, as he himself had won the Giro earlier that year.
I guess you could also say that he would have been the first Irishman to win a GT when he won the Tour, if he hadn't beaten himself to it by winning the Giro.
 

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