Future GT Winner (Edition 2019)

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Voted Pogacar.

but in ideal circumstances, it could happen to almost the entire list. Just the ideal circumstances never happen, so it will only be 1 or 2 of them who actually win a gt

 

[Bolder]

Based on this season, voted for Pogacar and Sivakov. Former doesn't need explanation, but the latter showed he can handle 3 weeks of racing while being a strong TT-er and a solid climber. Crucially, he is in a team, that has in the last decade excelled at developing exactly that kind of GC-riders.

I voted the exact same way, for the same reasons. I think they'll both win a GT in the next 5 years. Sivakov's upside is tremendous; I think he'll be a better climber than Pogacar.

I can think of disqualifying reason for everyone but Remco on that list, but I just have no idea how his career will pan out. It's hard to see a DQS rider winning a GT, however, the way the team is currently constituted. I'm most disappointed in Landa and Lopez, both of whom a few years ago looked like locks to win a GT.

I wouldn't totally rule out Buchmann, but I always get him confused with Ackermann, Schachmann and Schwarzmann. So there's that.

(Kidding a bit -- I think Bora could actually put together a GT winning team, maybe not with Majka as leader, but so long as they have Sagan and Bennett and Ackermann that probably won't happen)

Edit: I thought long and hard about Kruisjwijk, who's podiumed in 2 GTs without great team support, but I think there will always be one or two riders who will outclass him. Of the other young riders, I need to look at Sosa and Higuita a bit more but both are really promising.

 

[Noddy97]

Voted Pogacar.

but in ideal circumstances, it could happen to almost the entire list. Just the ideal circumstances never happen, so it will only be 1 or 2 of them who actually win a gt

Oscar Pereiro won a tour

 

[geisterhome]

Buchman has been improving steadily for years now, question is has he reached his ceiling yet? If he can take another step or 2 he will be in the conversation for a GT victory. Himself has clearly said that his Goal winning the TdF

 

[Red Rick]

Don't believe in Buchman one second.

 

[Akuryo]

MAL, Evenepoel and Pogacar. Pogacar seems the most likely, MAL need a certain route to succeed and Evenepoel has shown a lot of promise so far even if it was not in the mountains most of the time. The rest will probably come up short a few more times. How many 2nd places has Uran by now?! And Landa will most likely crash a few more times when he looks unbeatable...

 

[Bolder]

Don't believe in Buchman one second.

Well, he did finish fourth in the TdF this year, just as a certain Slovenian did in 2018. But yeah, he would have to be considered a pretty long shot, although Bora's strength this year has caught me by surprise. On the right course he could be at ... Kruisjwijk's level...which I know isn't a ringing endorsement...

 

[Leinster]

Oscar Pereiro won a tour

...and he would never have featured in a thread like this before he did. And Kloden would have won this poll if conducted in 2005. It just shows the number of unpredictable variables that we just can’t account for.

 

[movingtarget]

Oscar Pereiro won a tour

Pereiro was gifted 20 minutes in a ridiculous breakaway. Team managers were asleep at the wheel literally.

 

[jaylew]

It really depends on what GTs these guys will wind up doing for GC. Right now I don't think any of them will ever win a Tour. Something tells me MAL will win a TT-lite Giro or Vuelta at some point.

It's way too early to know with Evenepoel as we don't even know what kind of rider he'll be. In any case, I feel like a rider should have at least attempted a GT before making this list.

 

[42x16ss]

MAL always seems to have a bad day or two so far in his career. The physical talent seems to be there, but when he loses time it is in minutes.

Landa has the same issue as Rolland in his prime, always finding a way to lose too much time in the first week.

I agree on Remco. Evenepoel needs to race for 3 weeks before I can back him as well. Innsbruck showed he can climb for a day, but we have no idea how he will go for one week, let alone a full GT. From what Lefevere has said it may be as late as 2021 before he rides a GT.

 

[tobydawq]

Pereiro was gifted 20 minutes in a ridiculous breakaway. Team managers were asleep at the wheel literally.

Actually 30.

 

[bob.a.feet]

Well, he did finish fourth in the TdF this year, just as a certain Slovenian did in 2018. But yeah, he would have to be considered a pretty long shot, although Bora's strength this year has caught me by surprise. On the right course he could be at ... Kruisjwijk's level...which I know isn't a ringing endorsement...

Buchmann is already at Kruisjwijk's level and he is about 6 years younger and improving every year. I think he will win a GT one day

 

[Armchair cyclist]

Higuita?

 

[Nirvana]

Pereiro was gifted 20 minutes in a ridiculous breakaway. Team managers were asleep at the wheel literally.

They gave him 30 minutes but he was also almost 30 minutes down after the Pyrenees, i think no one could have thought that he would have hanged on with the Alps (+an almost 60 kms TT) still to ride with only a minute and an half advantage.
His performance on La Toussuire where he lost only 14" from Sastre and dropped every other GC rider, in the Morzine stage and in the ITT where he finished third are the best he ever produced.

 

[Pantani_lives]

The more I think about it the more I believe that Kruijswijk is a plausible candidate for next year's Giro. It all depends on the division of leaders in Jumbo and Ineos. Both teams have at least three potential winners, but we don't know who will be the leader in which race.

For MAL the question is if he's an early peaker. At the age of 25 he should still be able to improve, which would make him a big candidate for at least one Giro or Vuelta.

 

[movingtarget]

They gave him 30 minutes but he was also almost 30 minutes down after the Pyrenees, i think no one could have thought that he would have hanged on with the Alps (+an almost 60 kms TT) still to ride with only a minute and an half advantage.
His performance on La Toussuire where he lost only 14" from Sastre and dropped every other GC rider, in the Morzine stage and in the ITT where he finished third are the best he ever produced.

Even so you don't give 30 minutes to a top 10 rider or someone capable of a top 10. Pereiro had an 11th in the Giro and two top 10s in the Tour before he won it. Tactically risky and when he was in yellow he rode better as many riders do.

 

[Bolder]

Buchmann is already at Kruisjwijk's level and he is about 6 years younger and improving every year. I think he will win a GT one day

It's a fair comparison. Physically I think you're right, but SK has two GT podiums already. As I noted, I thought hard about voting for Kruisjwijk but just don't believe he's at that 0.001 percent level of GT winners. Buchmann would have to make a bit of a leap, too -- but he's got time on his side as you note.

If Buchmann wins a GT it probably won't be with Bora, though -- although, where else does a top German-speaking rider go? (Is this a bad spot to say I miss having Telekom in the peloton?)

 

[RedheadDane]

It's a fair comparison. Physically I think you're right, but SK has two GT podiums already. As I noted, I thought hard about voting for Kruisjwijk but just don't believe he's at that 0.001 percent level of GT winners. Buchmann would have to make a bit of a leap, too -- but he's got time on his side as you note.

If Buchmann wins a GT it probably won't be with Bora, though -- although, where else does a top German-speaking rider go? (Is this a bad spot to say I miss having Telekom in the peloton?)

Nah. Just the one in the Tour this year.

 

[Bolder]

Nah. Just the one in the Tour this year.

Doh! You're right of course. I keep thinking he was 3rd in the giro in 2016...

 

[hayneplane]

I only picked the three young guns as the others need far too much to align in their favour to feel confident backing them.

Pogacar feels like the biggest sure thing other than Bernal since Froome won the 2012 poll.

Evenepoel is so far ahead of the curve that often future Grand Tour winners have not even made an impression in the under 23s at his age.

Sivakov has the age grade pedigree and already a top ten at the Giro at 21 so you can reasonably expect a lot more to come.

Uran is unlikely to find a situation without better riders prevailing.

Bardet not in the poll seemed 3 years ago like a strong chance if he shifted focus to the Giro but it seems unlikely that will happen and his ITT is still a big drag on his chances.

Lopez I don’t see significant improvement in and will pick up multiple top 3/5 finishes but loses too much in the time trial to make up in the mountains.

Pinot like Porte and Landa has the top level to win Grand Tours but it doesn’t feel like they will ever hold it together for the full 21 stages without any costly mishaps.

Buchmann and Kruijswijk are very good riders but don’t seem to have any skill where they can go out be a difference maker that is needed to get to the top step.

 

[Leinster]

If Buchmann wins a GT it probably won't be with Bora, though -- although, where else does a top German-speaking rider go? (Is this a bad spot to say I miss having Telekom in the peloton?)

If Buchmann can win a GT there’s no reason whatsoever that he can’t do it at Bora. Even if you accept Sagan as the undisputed leader of the squad, he’s 30 next season and not getting younger. And anyway, Sagan can offer so much more as a domestique for a rider with gc ambition than any other sprinter.

Bennett is leaving, Formolo is a loss, but Majka will still be there and has some good years left in him. Some clever recruitment this year and next, and if Buchmann continues to improve at the same pace, he shouldn’t have any excuses if he can’t win at least a Vuelta by 2025.

 

[Nirvana]

Even so you don't give 30 minutes to a top 10 rider or someone capable of a top 10. Pereiro had an 11th in the Giro and two top 10s in the Tour before he won it. Tactically risky and when he was in yellow he rode better as many riders do.

A rider generally able to stay around the 10th/15th place in the GC taking advantage of breaks usually looses way more than the one minute and an half buffer he was granted in almost every mountain stage when he has to follow the GC riders group, I know that the leader jersey usually gives a performances boost but Pereiro sudden improvements in that second half of the 2006 Tour are comparable only to Voeckler in 2011, we had multiple times riders with similar climbing ability in the leader jersey after benefitting of a break but they usually crack.
Would have been a risk if he was something like 10/15 minutes down and so catapulted 15/20 minutes in front of everyone but when you see that he is more than 28 minutes down you can't really think of the scenario of him suddenly becoming one of the best climbers and time trialists in the world.

 

[Red Rick]

If Buchmann can win a GT there’s no reason whatsoever that he can’t do it at Bora. Even if you accept Sagan as the undisputed leader of the squad, he’s 30 next season and not getting younger. And anyway, Sagan can offer so much more as a domestique for a rider with gc ambition than any other sprinter.

Bennett is leaving, Formolo is a loss, but Majka will still be there and has some good years left in him. Some clever recruitment this year and next, and if Buchmann continues to improve at the same pace, he shouldn’t have any excuses if he can’t win at least a Vuelta by 2025.

27 years olds typically develop in a linear upwards trajectory

 

[Pantani_lives]

Thanks to all the voters (this time in the right thread ). After three days we have a clear winner:

1. Pogačar: 80 votes
2. Sivakov: 35
3. Evenepoel: 33
4. Pinot: 28
5. López: 21

Apart from Pinot the top 5 consists entirely of young riders. 2019 is clearly the year of exceptional young talents breaking through. Pogačar, who turns 21 the day after tomorrow, has made a big impression with his three stage wins in the Vuelta, especially with the big solo in stage 20. The future will tell whether he can live up to the forum's expectations.