Future GT Winner (Edition 2024)

[Logic-is-your-friend]

failed is kind of incorrect, he was with the best guys in the first hard stages, got injured from a crash then helped Ciccone instead of trying for some ninth place

Fair enough.

 

[ingsve]

Sure, but the same goes for plenty of others. I think the times Mas has accelerated on a mountain can be counted on one hand, and most of those probably come from this Vuelta. Uijtdebroeks also can't accelerate (yet). Has O'Connor ever done an attack against decent opposition? I can only remember him trying to follow an attack just to blow himself up 200 meters further.

And again, i don't think Arensman will ever win a GT, but he has shown on more than one occasion against better opposition his GT potential, than for instance Skjelmose has, while he is less than 10 months older. He finished 6th in this year's Giro, same as last year, but he is not on the list, while Skjelmose who finished 5th in the Vuelta and failed last year in the TDF when he also wanted to ride a GC, is.

Ya, I wouldn't vote for Mas or Uijtebroecks to win a GT either. O'Connor at least made it into a break to gain time but ya other than that he didn't really show any initiative.

I always loved the Kelme guys back in the day even though we know what fueled their efforts. Fernando Escartin never won a GT but he was never afraid to attack and make things interesting.

Sort of the same with Pantani really though he did end up winning GTs.

 

[Escarabajo]

I just read that Vingegaard might ride the Giro. That's it, please release the poll and let us vote again. And this time add nobody!
Thanks,

 

[Wyndbrook]

Perhaps there could be a 'none of them' option.

 

[GenericBoonenFan]

Perhaps there could be a 'none of them' option.

True,
I'm also disgusted by the lack of Vino option

 

[solo80k]

Giulio Pellizzari anyone?

 

[KZD]

I voted for Almeida and Ayuso.

Winning Grand Tours has become a very difficult task in an era with Pogačar, Vingegaard, Roglič and Remco around, especially given that some of them are doing two Grand Tours per season.

Almeida and Ayuso are the ones that I believe are closer to these four as they are very good climbers but also quite good time trialists. Plus, in Ayuso's case he is still only 21 so despite training like a pro from a young age he should still have a bigger margin of improvement than most others.

I hesitated a bit in voting for Lipowitz and even though I didn't vote for him, I was really impressed with his performance in the Vuelta and because he started cycling later, he should still get be able to improve a lot so I wouldn't be surprised if he wins a Giro in a few years.

The rest of the riders are very good but I don't see them winning a GT in this era. I do believe though, that riders like Nordhagen and Torres are potential GT winners too.

 

[Netserk]

Nothing to add since last year:

Reminder of the most recent [official] first time Grand Tour winners:

2023 Vuelta -- Sepp Kuss
2022 Vuelta -- Remco Evenepoel
2022 Tour -- Jonas Vingegaard
2022 Giro -- Jai Hindley
2020 Giro -- Tao Geoghegan Hart
2020 Tour -- Tadej Pogačar
2019 Vuelta -- Primož Roglič
2019 Tour -- Egan Bernal
2019 Giro -- Richard Carapaz
2018 Vuelta -- Simon Yates
2018 Tour -- Geraint Thomas
2017 Giro -- Tom Dumoulin
2015 Vuelta -- Fabio Aru
2014 Giro -- Nairo Quintana
2013 Vuelta -- Chris Horner
2013 Tour -- Christopher Froome (the 2011 Vuelta was awarded later)
2012 Tour -- Bradley Wiggins
2012 Giro -- Ryder Hesjedal
2011 Vuelta -- Juan José Cobo (at the time)
2011 Tour -- Cadel Evans
2011 Giro -- Michele Scarponi (was first awarded in 2012, so should probably have been listed over Cobo)
2010 Vuelta -- Vincenzo Nibali
2010 Tour -- Andy Schleck (see note for 2011 Giro)
2009 Vuelta -- Alejandro Valverde
2008 Tour -- Carlos Sastre
2007 Vuelta -- Dennis Menchov (IIRC it was at the time his second GT win, but is currently his first)
2007 Tour -- Alberto Contador
2007 Giro -- Danilo Di Luca
2006 Vuelta -- Alexander Vinokourov
2006 Tour -- Óscar Pereiro (and for a brief period of time Floyd Landis)
2006 Giro -- Ivan Basso

Quite rare for a year to have no new winners, and the last time there were two such years in a row was back in 1973/1974 (in large part thanks to Merckx winning doubles both years).

 

[Netserk]

I think the most likely next new GT winner is:

1. Adam Yates
2. Derek Gee
3. Antonio Tiberi

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Sure, but the same goes for plenty of others. I think the times Mas has accelerated on a mountain can be counted on one hand, and most of those probably come from this Vuelta.

Forgotten previous Vueltas I see.

 

[tobydawq]

I think the most likely next new GT winner is:

1. Adam Yates
2. Derek Gee
3. Antonio Tiberi

I think your infatuation with Gee is reaching unhealthy proportions.

 

[Netserk]

I think your infatuation with Gee is reaching unhealthy proportions.

Israel is cooking, bro. Trust the process, our Gee'ro will fly uphill like Chris Horner.

I very much doubt a new GT winner will win either Tour or Vuelta next year, so the next two Giri will likely see the next one. If none of the Big 4 goes, UAE will start as favourites. I think Almeida and Yates are more likely to go than Ayuso, and I doubt Almeida has a win in him. Which non-winners could challenge? Blobloblo could, but for various reasons, I think both Tiberi and Gee are more likely to step up like several riders did in the Tour this year, and which I think is needed to win the Giro.

 

[Netserk]

Maybe I should've picked Jorgenson ahead of Tiberi? If Vingegaard doesn't go to the Giro, I really don't know who they'll send of Kuss, Blobloblo, Yates and Jorgenson. Plausible that the American duo will go and Jorgenson takes it.

 

[tobydawq]

Israel is cooking, bro. Trust the process, our Gee'ro will fly uphill like Chris Horner.

I very much doubt a new GT winner will win either Tour or Vuelta next year, so the next two Giri will likely see the next one. If none of the Big 4 goes, UAE will start as favourites. I think Almeida and Yates are more likely to go than Ayuso, and I doubt Almeida has a win in him. Which non-winners could challenge? Blobloblo could, but for various reasons, I think both Tiberi and Gee are more likely to step up like several riders did in the Tour this year, and which I think is needed to win the Giro.

I'd think Almeida has a win in him if neither of Vingegaard and Pogacar goes. Unless if Roglic sees sense and abandons the Tour ambition but it seems likely he'll go for it again next year.

I don't think Tiberi has that much potential to be honest, and certainly not Gee.

Maybe Ineos go for the Giro with Carlos Rodríguez to actually try to win something (I assume Thomas will keep to his plan of not going for another GT) and then if he steps up, he could have a good chance. Note here that going to the Vuelta this year was only aimed as an experience to see how he could cope with two Grand Tours a year, there was no expectation of a good GC result.

 

[Netserk]

I certainly expect a much better field in the Giro. We could see quite a lot of GT winners at the start: Hindley, Carapaz, Kuss, S. Yates, Thomas, Geoghegan Hart & Bernal. Maybe even Froome?

EDIT: Yikes, I forgot Quintana!

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Mas doesn't accelerate, he is just pulled into the gravitational field of the next Vuelta winner when the latter attacks.

Scientists call it Spanish relativity

That relies on him not trying to make up the time. Just because he wasn't good enough to ever really gain separation and isn't explosive in the slightest doesn't mean he didn't try to win time back on Evenepoel, just that he didn't have what it took to succeed when doing so.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I certainly expect a much better field in the Giro. We could see quite a lot of GT winners at the start: Hindley, Carapaz, Kuss, S. Yates, Thomas, Geoghegan Hart & Bernal. Maybe even Froome?

EDIT: Yikes, I forgot Quintana!

Hindley and Carapaz still at least have the possibility of trying, mind. In theory I guess Simon Yates could, he's at least closer to where he was at his peak than Quintana or Bernal and at least Bernal has an excuse for not replicating his peak ability, Geogeghan Hart seems to be a male Mikayla Harvey, a complete one-off that looked a million bucks thanks to the different impacts the pandemic had on various riders' training. Kuss needs to prove he's not a Pereiro or Giovannetti first.

Thomas is kind of the exception, in that he's the one that's still putting out podium performances, but he's also long since been employing the "fall backwards as slowly as possible" method exclusively so he simultaneously adds the biggest threat but far less interest than e.g. Carapaz or even Hindley.

 

[SafeBet]

I'd think Almeida has a win in him if neither of Vingegaard and Pogacar goes. Unless if Roglic sees sense and abandons the Tour ambition but it seems likely he'll go for it again next year.

I don't think Tiberi has that much potential to be honest, and certainly not Gee.

Maybe Ineos go for the Giro with Carlos Rodríguez to actually try to win something (I assume Thomas will keep to his plan of not going for another GT) and then if he steps up, he could have a good chance. Note here that going to the Vuelta this year was only aimed as an experience to see how he could cope with two Grand Tours a year, there was no expectation of a good GC result.

I'm not sure I'd take Rodriguez over Tiberi as of now. Ineos needs to step it up a notch to regain my trust, most of their riders have stalled or even regressed.
I agree on Almeida, although his tendency to fall sick doesn't match very well with the Giro, which might be the only GT he'll get to lead for at least a couple of years?

@Netserk is possibly too big on Gee, but Israel is developing young riders like few teams in the WT and there's certainly potential to be untapped in Gee. A bit like Lipowitz, without the Roglic obstacle.

 

[Squire]

[A]t least Bernal has an excuse for not replicating his peak ability, Geogeghan Hart seems to be a male Mikayla Harvey, a complete one-off that looked a million bucks thanks to the different impacts the pandemic had on various riders' training.

Certainly TGH has as good of an excuse for not performing now? He looked like a proper world-beater again before shattering his leg last year.

 

[hayneplane]

Hindley and Carapaz still at least have the possibility of trying, mind. In theory I guess Simon Yates could, he's at least closer to where he was at his peak than Quintana or Bernal and at least Bernal has an excuse for not replicating his peak ability, Geogeghan Hart seems to be a male Mikayla Harvey, a complete one-off that looked a million bucks thanks to the different impacts the pandemic had on various riders' training. Kuss needs to prove he's not a Pereiro or Giovannetti first.

Thomas is kind of the exception, in that he's the one that's still putting out podium performances, but he's also long since been employing the "fall backwards as slowly as possible" method exclusively so he simultaneously adds the biggest threat but far less interest than e.g. Carapaz or even Hindley.

Hindley could certainly win a Giro or Vuelta in the future where the field and parcours align for him.

Thomas said in his latest podcast that he might well retire after next rear and that if so he would most likely want to do the Tour one last time.

Bit unfair on Tao as he was looking really good for a podium finish in Giro 2023 until he slid out on that dodgy patch of road and suffered a serious leg injury that he has yet to fully recover from.

 

[OlavEH]

Ayuso and Tiberi. Ayuso is the only very obvious alternative. The latter is mostly because I could see a Giro with a bang average start list giving not-obvious riders a decent chance for a GT win.

 

[Netserk]

Not entirely sure @Netserk hyping Gee isnt just some metacommentary on Geraint Thomas

And Bernal I feel like the current shambles of current Ineos is a bigger issue tham his actual injuries

I can see it work like that, but it hadn't occurred to me. I just think Gee has a lot of potential and that Israel is serious about him.

 

[Pantani_lives]

1. Ayuso 50
2. Almeida 41
3. Tiberi 17
4. Lipowitz 17
5. Rodríguez 12
6. Skjelmose 11
7. Mas 5

Juan Ayuso has done it! He wins this poll for the third year in a row. I have to admit that I voted for him too, but with less confidence than last year. Is he the most overhyped rider in this forum's history or does he just need a little more time to fulfill the expectations?

The dominance of UAE is impressive, because they also take the second place with Almeida. He makes the top 4 for the fifth year in a row (2-3-4-4-2). Maybe I should have included Adam Yates as well, but he's thirty-two already and I didn't want three riders from the same team.

Tiberi is the next Italian hope, and perhaps Germany will have a player again with Lipowitz.

Thanks to anyone who voted!

 

[Squire]

Do you have any specific criteria for who to put in the poll? I'm guessing the bookies would give lower odds for winning a GT at some point in their career for some big talents who are earlier in their development, like Nordhagen, Del Toro or Widar, than for Skjelmose or Gaudu, for example. But I can also see how there's not enough space to have all the promising U23 climbers in the poll.

 

[Peyroteo94]

1. Ayuso 50
2. Almeida 41
3. Tiberi 17
4. Lipowitz 17
5. Rodríguez 12
6. Skjelmose 11
7. Mas 5

Juan Ayuso has done it! He wins this poll for the third year in a row. I have to admit that I voted for him too, but with less confidence than last year. Is he the most overhyped rider in this forum's history or does he just need a little more time to fulfill the expectations?

The dominance of UAE is impressive, because they also take the second place with Almeida. He makes the top 4 for the fifth year in a row (2-3-4-4-2). Maybe I should have included Adam Yates as well, but he's thirty-two already and I didn't want three riders from the same team.

Tiberi is the next Italian hope, and perhaps Germany will have a player again with Lipowitz.

Thanks to anyone who voted!

Most overrated climber ever. And poll should have a "no one" option