Future GT Winner (Edition 2025)

[Pantani_lives]

Welcome to the fourteenth edition of this annual poll in which the forum tries to predict who will win a Grand Tour in the future. It's also known as the GP Juan Ayuso, named after the rider who won it for the third time in a row last year. This year it was particularly hard to make a selection, because so many young riders are doing well already in stage races.

So which of these cyclists are most likely to win a GT at some point in their career? You have multiple votes. If you have riders in mind who aren't listed, you can mention them in the thread.

Past winners of this poll:

2012 Christopher Froome (won Tour 2013)
2013 Nairo Quintana (won Giro 2014)
2014 Fabio Aru (won Vuelta 2015)
2015 Mikel Landa
2016 Esteban Chaves
2017 Mikel Landa
2018 Egan Bernal (won Tour 2019)
2019 Tadej Pogačar (won Tour 2020)
2020 Remco Evenepoel (won Vuelta 2022)
2021 Jonas Vingegaard (won Tour 2022)
2022 Juan Ayuso
2023 Juan Ayuso
2024 Juan Ayuso
2025 ???

 

[Red Rick]

Lipowitz, Almeida and Seixas for me.

Lipowitz and Almeida cause they are already at the level that they can win one without Vingegaard/Pogacar there. Seixas because he is that young and that good already.

I don't have Del Toro because I think he's further in his development than is often thought and to me he's a but too much of a puncheur for his own good. Ayuso is out because he's delivered nothing in the last 2 years and he's leaving the most overpowered team. Pellizzari and Onley I don't think have the room for improvement to get there. Same for Pidcock, who is also very limited to the Vuelta. Gall and Gee don't even require an explanation for me and aren't even the best candidates to be in this poll for me.

 

[Squire]

First time I've voted for this many people in this poll. Same as Red Rick for me, but with Ayuso added as well.

Same reasons as Red Rick too, and Ayuso fits in that reasoning also. I also agree about Del Toro. He might win a GT if stars align (or he improves further), but I expect him to continue to stay a bit below the absolute top GT guys while possibly becoming a beast in more punchy races.

What also speaks in favour of four guys getting the nod from me is that I don't expect the Pog/Vingegaard era to continue for that many more years. Vingegaard is approaching 30, which is often the start of the decline for the absolute aliens nowadays. Not to say that he will decline massively and rapidly, but enough that he can be beaten more often potentially. And there's no way Pog can keep up this pace way past 30. He already seems a bit tired of it, mentally at least.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Gee unshackled on a grinders course would be my favorite, but Onley might sneak in a win if he should find himself targetting a non TDF GT.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Not that I would have voted for him, but Mas is clearly more likely to win a Vuelta than Gall is to ever win anything. As in, 10-20% is more than 1-2%.

Other than that, I by and large agree with @Squire here. Really, everyone listed but Gall has at least a semblance of a chance (though it's a pretty small chance for Pidcock and Gee, similar to Mas), which is much more than could be said of the options a few years ago.

 

[Netserk]

Almeida on UAE for the rest of his career is destined to be part-time helper and part-time bridesmaid.

Gee has the potentiality to unlock GT winning strength.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Mikel Landa

(I voted for Gee, del toro, pelizzari, onley and seixas. I don't have faith in Almida, Ajuso or lipoprotein)

As DE said, Mas should be in over Gall

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Almeida on UAE for the rest of his career is destined to be part-time helper and part-time bridesmaid.

Gee has the potentiality to unlock GT winning strength.

Almeida has no chance to lead the Tour or any other GT Pogi takes part in. However, in another team he would also have no chance in races Pogi takes part in At least he can hope that one day Le Patron will give him one GT the way he did yesterday.

 

[motty89]

If vuelta reverts back to unipuerto rampas then I can easily see del toro winning. Apart from that agree with others that lipo/almeida already have the level and seixas has shown the most potential.

 

[SafeBet]

Voted Lipowitz, Pellizzari, Del Toro, Almeida and Seixas.

Based on physiology alone Almeida should be the most likely but I'm little worried about his chances at UAE. He's also older than the others which probably means he'll always have to deal with Vingegaard (+ Pogacar if one leaves UAE).
Lipowitz comes close in terms of potential. Biggest concern is he'll ride the Tour more often than not.

Del Toro and Pellizzari are less likely to win a GT, but they are younger and I do believe they both have some room for improvement. I could see Del Toro winning a Vuelta a la Valverde even in case he doesn't improve further. Pellizzari would probably benefit from some harder parcours in the Giro.

Seixas is hard to gauge considering he's never ridden a GT, but I had to vote him considering his first year as a pro.

 

[Tonton]

Lipowitz, Almeida and Seixas for me.

Lipowitz and Almeida cause they are already at the level that they can win one without Vingegaard/Pogacar there. Seixas because he is that young and that good already.

I don't have Del Toro because I think he's further in his development than is often thought and to me he's a but too much of a puncheur for his own good. Ayuso is out because he's delivered nothing in the last 2 years and he's leaving the most overpowered team. Pellizzari and Onley I don't think have the room for improvement to get there. Same for Pidcock, who is also very limited to the Vuelta. Gall and Gee don't even require an explanation for me and aren't even the best candidates to be in this poll for me.

This ^^^

Seixas is a bit of wishful thinking at this point, but what a talent! The other two can win a Pogacar-less GT right now. Joao exceeded my expectations at this Vuelta, much closer to Jonas than I anticipated. Florian was amazing at this year's Tour. They are the two at the moment.

 

[Netserk]

Nothing to add since last year:

Reminder of the most recent [official] first time Grand Tour winners:

2023 Vuelta -- Sepp Kuss
2022 Vuelta -- Remco Evenepoel
2022 Tour -- Jonas Vingegaard
2022 Giro -- Jai Hindley
2020 Giro -- Tao Geoghegan Hart
2020 Tour -- Tadej Pogačar
2019 Vuelta -- Primož Roglič
2019 Tour -- Egan Bernal
2019 Giro -- Richard Carapaz
2018 Vuelta -- Simon Yates
2018 Tour -- Geraint Thomas
2017 Giro -- Tom Dumoulin
2015 Vuelta -- Fabio Aru
2014 Giro -- Nairo Quintana
2013 Vuelta -- Chris Horner
2013 Tour -- Christopher Froome (the 2011 Vuelta was awarded later)
2012 Tour -- Bradley Wiggins
2012 Giro -- Ryder Hesjedal
2011 Vuelta -- Juan José Cobo (at the time)
2011 Tour -- Cadel Evans
2011 Giro -- Michele Scarponi (was first awarded in 2012, so should probably have been listed over Cobo)
2010 Vuelta -- Vincenzo Nibali
2010 Tour -- Andy Schleck (see note for 2011 Giro)
2009 Vuelta -- Alejandro Valverde
2008 Tour -- Carlos Sastre
2007 Vuelta -- Dennis Menchov (IIRC it was at the time his second GT win, but is currently his first)
2007 Tour -- Alberto Contador
2007 Giro -- Danilo Di Luca
2006 Vuelta -- Alexander Vinokourov
2006 Tour -- Óscar Pereiro (and for a brief period of time Floyd Landis)
2006 Giro -- Ivan Basso

The last time there were two years in a row without a new winner was back in 1973/1974 (in large part thanks to Merckx winning doubles both years).

 

[noob]

Almeida. Simply because I believe Pog will retire before Almeida loses his peak.

Granted it probably won't be a fun GT to watch for the non Almeida fans as his style is very diesel which means

Spoiler

uhm... defensive

 

[Pantani_lives]

It looks like Juan Ayuso might give it away to a teammate this year...

I still voted for him, but with less conviction than previous years.

 

[AlfaLum]

For now I think the following riders will win GTs in the future:

- Del Toro - will be a very big contender in all GTs he will contend and will win multiple

- Seixas - is the other rider next to Del Toro I see as the potential dominant GT rider for the future once the Pogacar/Vingegaard era ends.

- Almeida - is close to his peak and will never win many, but I think he will snatch a GT win in the future if he gets lucky with the Field.

- Pellizzari - I think he has the potential to win a Giro or Vuelta in the future when the best GC riders are not present.

I think Ayuso still has a decent chance as well, but might be more limited as I see him aiming mostly for the Tour now that he is leaving UAE.

Harder to predict, but I think there will be one or two other GT winners among the 2005 & 2006 class with Widar, Torres, Nordhagen, Omrzel, Ramirez, Albert Withen Philipsen among the candidates.

AWP will have to make a big transition, but he has a very big engine so it might work for him even though i rider see him aiming for one-day races for now. Ramirez is a prospect that has a very bright future in my opinion, heaps of potential.

 

[Põhja Konn]

The end of the Pog and Vingo era in GTs will probably come before many of those in the poll age out of their peak years. End of such an era usually means a more open season for everyone else for at least a season or two before the next dominant force emerges.

So the likelyhood is that someone not so obvious gets and takes his chance as well is not insignificant. Right now I chose Lipowitz, Almeida and Del Toro. The Germans skillset is tailormade for GTs and already on very high level in both TT-ing and climbing and it's not all impossible he improves further.

Almeida showed in the Vuelta that he is at a level where he can win one if the big two are missing, but he probably needs to target the Giro as a leader for that to happen, otherwise he will tire himself out working for Pog in the Tour.

Del Toro is a shoe-in for a Vuelta if he can do one for himself, and a Giro is also definitely not out of reach either. UAEs lesser leaders have actually gotten fair amount of chances to ride for themselves in GT-s and I can't see Del Toro being fully chained to Pogs schedule either.

Seixas currently looks like a truly special talent, but it is clearly too early to predict his potential for GT wins.

 

[Pantani_lives]

My assessment:

• Ayuso: might fade away at another team, but he remains a big talent and he's too young to write him off.
• Del Toro: major talent, but might focus on the classics rather than becoming a pure GC rider.
• Seixas: biggest French GC talent in a very long time, but it's too soon to tell.
• Pellizzari: might be the next Italian Giro winner, but still needs to improve.
• Lipowitz: Very consistent GC rider, but he still has zero professional wins.
• Almeida: Will remain a super domestique in the Tour, won't get many chances for himself.
• Pidcock: Good on many terrains, but a Vuelta podium is probably his peak result already.
• Gee: Consistent, will probably collect more places of honour.
• Onley: Good climber, but I don't see him dominating three weeks.
• Gall: Good in the high mountains, but not complete enough.

Other candidates could be Carlos Rodriguez, Riccitello, Jorgenson, Skjelmose, Tiberi, Vauquelin, Arensman, Widar... It's sad to see that riders around thirty, like Mas and Vlasov, already seem to be past their peak.

 

[Berniece]

Other candidates could be Carlos Rodriguez, Riccitello, Jorgenson, Skjelmose, Tiberi, Vauquelin, Arensman, Widar... It's sad to see that riders around thirty, like Mas and Vlasov, already seem to be past their peak.

Out of your other candidates I see Jorgenson as a possible candidate, but then he needs to grow/perform like in 2024, because he wasn't that impressive in 2025. Widar too soon to tell. All the others won't win one I think.

 

[Potomac]

Nothing to add since last year:

Reminder of the most recent [official] first time Grand Tour winners:

2023 Vuelta -- Sepp Kuss
2022 Vuelta -- Remco Evenepoel
2022 Tour -- Jonas Vingegaard
2022 Giro -- Jai Hindley
2020 Giro -- Tao Geoghegan Hart
2020 Tour -- Tadej Pogačar
2019 Vuelta -- Primož Roglič
2019 Tour -- Egan Bernal
2019 Giro -- Richard Carapaz
2018 Vuelta -- Simon Yates
2018 Tour -- Geraint Thomas
2017 Giro -- Tom Dumoulin
2015 Vuelta -- Fabio Aru
2014 Giro -- Nairo Quintana
2013 Vuelta -- Chris Horner
2013 Tour -- Christopher Froome (the 2011 Vuelta was awarded later)
2012 Tour -- Bradley Wiggins
2012 Giro -- Ryder Hesjedal
2011 Vuelta -- Juan José Cobo (at the time)
2011 Tour -- Cadel Evans
2011 Giro -- Michele Scarponi (was first awarded in 2012, so should probably have been listed over Cobo)
2010 Vuelta -- Vincenzo Nibali
2010 Tour -- Andy Schleck (see note for 2011 Giro)
2009 Vuelta -- Alejandro Valverde
2008 Tour -- Carlos Sastre
2007 Vuelta -- Dennis Menchov (IIRC it was at the time his second GT win, but is currently his first)
2007 Tour -- Alberto Contador
2007 Giro -- Danilo Di Luca
2006 Vuelta -- Alexander Vinokourov
2006 Tour -- Óscar Pereiro (and for a brief period of time Floyd Landis)
2006 Giro -- Ivan Basso

The last time there were two years in a row without a new winner was back in 1973/1974 (in large part thanks to Merckx winning doubles both years).

I count 31 first timers on that list, over the last 25 20 years worth of grand tours.
That's about a 41 % 50% chance a GT gets a first time winner.

 

[Netserk]

I count 31 first timers on that list, over the last 25 grand tours.
That's about a 41% chance a GT gets a first time winner.

It covers 20 years, so 60 GTs. Cobo and Schleck/Scarponi were first time winners in different senses, so if you stick with one you shouldn't count the other. And Menchov is also a curious case.

 

[Potomac]

It covers 20 years, so 60 GTs. Cobo and Schleck/Scarponi were first time winners in different senses, so if you stick with one you shouldn't count the other. And Menchov is also a curious case.

I haven't had my coffee yet.....so 20 ...25.....I'm innocent.

I went back and made corrections.

 

[Squire]

My assessment:

• Ayuso: might fade away at another team, but he remains a big talent and he's too young to write him off.
• Del Toro: major talent, but might focus on the classics rather than becoming a pure GC rider.
• Seixas: biggest French GC talent in a very long time, but it's too soon to tell.
• Pellizzari: might be the next Italian Giro winner, but still needs to improve.
• Lipowitz: Very consistent GC rider, but he still has zero professional wins.
• Almeida: Will remain a super domestique in the Tour, won't get many chances for himself.
• Pidcock: Good on many terrains, but a Vuelta podium is probably his peak result already.
• Gee: Consistent, will probably collect more places of honour.
• Onley: Good climber, but I don't see him dominating three weeks.
• Gall: Good in the high mountains, but not complete enough.

Other candidates could be Carlos Rodriguez, Riccitello, Jorgenson, Skjelmose, Tiberi, Vauquelin, Arensman, Widar... It's sad to see that riders around thirty, like Mas and Vlasov, already seem to be past their peak.

I agree with pretty much all of this.

But I think Almeida will get more chances than some people think. With Ayuso and Yates out of the question at UAE, he is the only reliable GT leader besides Pog on that team at the moment (along with possibly Del Toro, but I think the main question will be how Pog/Almeida are distributed across the GTs, and Del Toro will just be co-leader if Almeida gets a Pog-less Giro or Vuelta). And based on how I perceive their mentality, I see Almeida as a better candidate than Pog/Vingegaard for longevity a la Landa, so his GT life might become easier for a few years before he declines significantly. I think Almeida is the most likely future GT winner on the list with Ayuso and Lipowitz close behind.

Most of your 'other candidates' seem a bit far-fetched, but Kuss, Horner and Hesjedal have won GTs so you never know.

The only other thing I disagree with is Mas being past his peak. Or, not necessarily at least. He has had a lot of issues this season, but last year he was the strongest rider in the Vuelta on some days, and could possibly have won it if the route was different (but that's a big ask when we're talking about the Vuelta). That was maybe the closest he ever got to a GT win if you ask me. He should definintely be ranked above the other riders you list at the end there (bar Widar perhaps, who doesn't quite fit with the others).

 

[AlfaLum]

I agree with pretty much all of this.

But I think Almeida will get more chances than some people think. With Ayuso and Yates out of the question at UAE, he is the only reliable GT leader besides Pog on that team at the moment (along with possibly Del Toro, but I think the main question will be how Pog/Almeida are distributed across the GTs, and Del Toro will just be co-leader if Almeida gets a Pog-less Giro or Vuelta). And based on how I perceive their mentality, I see Almeida as a better candidate than Pog/Vingegaard for longevity a la Landa, so his GT life might become easier for a few years before he declines significantly. I think Almeida is the most likely future GT winner on the list with Ayuso and Lipowitz close behind.

Most of your 'other candidates' seem a bit far-fetched, but Kuss, Horner and Hesjedal have won GTs so you never know.

The only other thing I disagree with is Mas being past his peak. Or, not necessarily at least. He has had a lot of issues this season, but last year he was the strongest rider in the Vuelta on some days, and could possibly have won it if the route was different (but that's a big ask when we're talking about the Vuelta). That was maybe the closest he ever got to a GT win if you ask me. He should definintely be ranked above the other riders you list at the end there (bar Widar perhaps, who doesn't quite fit with the others).

Funny I am the opposite on how I perceive Almeidas career progressing because it just seems to me he has to work so hard to contest with the best climbing wise.

To me it just seems like he is not as natural a Climber as some of his competitors, but he is making up for it because of his determination and strength. However I feel that these types of riders often detoriate faster at the start of their early thirties once they are over their physical peak.

Will be interesting to see which theory holds.

 

[Squire]

Funny I am the opposite on how I perceive Almeidas career progressing because it just seems to me he has to work so hard to contest with the best climbing wise.

To me it just seems like he is not as natural a Climber as some of his competitors, but he is making up for it because of his determination and strength. However I feel that these types of riders often detoriate faster at the start of their early thirties once they are over their physical peak.

Will be interesting to see which theory holds.

Your prediction is as valid as mine of course, and yes we should remember to quote each other in seven years' time.

But I present to you Geraint Thomas, Cadel Evans and Jakob Fuglsang as examples of grindy climbers who can have longevity. And there are plenty of examples of more punchy climbers declining early, too. So I don't know if it's a general trend.

I also don't quite know if 'natural climber' is really much of a thing. If you go fast uphill, you're a climber, and it's all done quite naturally (barring clinic things ). Almeida isn't tall or heavy, and he doesn't seem to be in the Jan Ullrich or Bradley Wiggins category of having to keep his 'natural' weight down in order to climb well. For me, the only distinction I can conceivably make is tempo climber (say Dumoulin) vs variable-pace climber (say Contador). And Almeida is definitely a tempo climber. But Rujano was also more of a tempo climber, and I don't think anyone would say he's not a 'natural climber'.

 

[AlfaLum]

Your prediction is as valid as mine of course, and yes we should remember to quote each other in seven years' time.

But I present to you Geraint Thomas, Cadel Evans and Jakob Fuglsang as examples of grindy climbers who can have longevity. And there are plenty of examples of more punchy climbers declining early, too. So I don't know if it's a general trend.

I also don't quite know if 'natural climber' is really much of a thing. If you go fast uphill, you're a climber, and it's all done quite naturally (barring clinic things ). Almeida isn't tall or heavy, and he doesn't seem to be in the Jan Ullrich or Bradley Wiggins category of having to keep his 'natural' weight down in order to climb well. For me, the only distinction I can conceivably make is tempo climber (say Dumoulin) vs variable-pace climber (say Contador). And Almeida is definitely a tempo climber. But Rujano was also more of a tempo climber, and I don't think anyone would say he's not a 'natural climber'.

Yeah fair points haha so my gut feeling on Almeida might all come down to being nonsense 😂

Just as my feeling that the 2005/2006 class will surpass the level at which all non aliens are riding at the moment. 😂