Future GT Winner (Edition 2025)

[QueenStagiaire]

I think it makes sense to only consider pros but I don‘t think we should deny riders who Top 10‘d Dauphiné because they didn‘t ride a GT yet.

 

[Netserk]

I don't think any of those are remotely equivalent to Seixas.

They don't have to be.

The general argument for Seixas applies to them as well. And all junior riders too.

 

[Netserk]

I think it makes sense to only consider pros but I don‘t think we should deny riders who Top 10‘d Dauphiné because they didn‘t ride a GT yet.

I'd likely find him an appropriate option next year, even if he doesn't ride a GT. And that's entirely consistent with the argument I made.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

They don't have to be.

The general argument for Seixas applies to them as well. And all junior riders too.

The main argument for Seixas is that he's on a curve different to anything we've ever seen before. That argument applies to none of Nordhagen, Widar and Noval.

 

[Gigs_98]

I think the "this guy is younger than XY so he will win GTs once XY retires" arguments usually don't end up working because most of the time, by the time XY actually retires there is someone else who can beat them. I voted for Almeida nontheless because I think he's already good enough to win any GT without Pogacar and Vingegaard and hopefully over his career he'll encounter enough such races for him to win one. I don't think him winning a GT is a safe bet though and if Pogacar and Vingegaard hang around for a while and consitently go for two GTs per year, there is not gonna be much left to win for everyone else.

The only other rider I voted for was Del Toro. I think I might be overrating him by judging him based on how close he came to winning a GT rather than how good he was in that GT. I mean realistically, if the Giro has a more ordinary route with two HC mtfs in the second week and no crazy gravel stage he is probably 2 minutes behind Carapaz going into the final rest day and people don't even notice his performance. But then I might also be overthinking it if I don't vote for a 21 y.o. who has already been on a GT podium.

The two guys who are getting a lot of votes but I didn't vote for are Seixas and Lipowitz. With Seixas this might just be because I'm not following the junior ranks enough to appreciate how good he is, but I'm just always wary to vote for someone who, so far, has never shown anything close to a GT winning performance. Of course you cannot really expect that from a teenager, but then that might mean I'm just wary to vote for teenagers. Still a lot of progress he has to make before being a real gc threat and then the fact that he's french might mean he will overfocus on the Tour, like many french talents before him. I actually think Lipowitz might be in a similar danger as he's a German riding for a German team when Germany is one of those cycling countries that doesn't really care about races other than the Tour. If Lipowitz and Pellizzari swapped their nationality I'd be much more confident in Lipowitz winning a GT while now there is a small part of me thinking, Pellizzari can win a Giro with a weak field.

 

[Netserk]

The main argument for Seixas is that he's on a curve different to anything we've ever seen before. That argument applies to none of Nordhagen, Widar and Noval.

The argument that we have to consider the likelihood of them winning a GT over their whole career regardless of how far away that may be applies to everyone.

Do you think Gall, Pidcock, Gee or Onley are more likely at the end of their careers to have won a GT than Noval is at the end of his?

 

[Peyroteo94]

There is a huge difference between a GT podium and a GT winner.
There is also a huge difference between a Giro/Vuelta winner and a Tour winner.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

The argument that we have to consider the likelihood of them winning a GT over their whole career regardless of how far away that may be applies to everyone.

Do you think Gall, Pidcock, Gee or Onley are more likely at the end of their careers to have won a GT than Noval is at the end of his?

I've said previously that Gall has no shot, so he is by definition less likely. Pidcock and Gee are in the 10-20% bracket for me with Onley perhaps slightly above that (his skillset should be great for the Vuelta). The GT win rate of the top junior climbers, even in more recent times, is lower than that. We have seen Noval in a strong international climbing field exactly once, and he wasn't the best climber there, so I don't see any reason to judge him differently from the sample of previous top junior climbers, and therefore also no reason to put him ahead of Pidcock/Gee/Onley at this stage.

 

[Berniece]

There is a huge difference between a GT podium and a GT winner.
There is also a huge difference between a Giro/Vuelta winner and a Tour winner.

Oscar Pereiro won the TDF…

 

[Red Rick]

Oscar Pereiro won the TDF…

Makes no sense to treat the single greatest outlier as a an the example by which to predict future winners.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Makes no sense to treat the single greatest outlier as a an the example by which to predict future winners.

Incredible outlier. The guy was handed half an hour in a breakaway plus the winner was disqualified. Other than that victory his best GT place was 10th.

 

[Pantani_lives]

And we have a winner! After his performance in the Giro and his victories in the summer Isaac del Toro has convinced the forum that he's the most likely candidate to win a Grand Tour in the future! It's the fourth year in a row that someone from UAE wins this poll. The Mexican Bull would be the first of his country to win a GT. He's already causing a cycling craze.

Remarkable is the second place for Seixas. He's only eighteen and he'll carry the weight of the next French Tour hope. The high scores for Almeida and Lipowitz are logical, because they're already close to GT winning level. Pellizzari is now the biggest hope for another Italian Giro victory. Confidence in Ayuso has gone down, but he's way too young to write him off.

Thanks to everyone who voted. The future will tell whether these expectations are justified.

1. Del Toro 65
2. Seixas 49
3. Almeida 48
4. Lipowitz 48
5. Pellizzari 17
6. Ayuso 15

 

[Red Rick]

Future GT winner poll confirmed to be a 1.1 race.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Future GT winner poll confirmed to be a 1.1 race.

Maybe they will degrade Vuelta to a 1.1 race after this year and then...Torito wins a GT and 10 stages on top of it.

 

[ingsve]

Nothing to add since last year:

Reminder of the most recent [official] first time Grand Tour winners:

2023 Vuelta -- Sepp Kuss
2022 Vuelta -- Remco Evenepoel
2022 Tour -- Jonas Vingegaard
2022 Giro -- Jai Hindley
2020 Giro -- Tao Geoghegan Hart
2020 Tour -- Tadej Pogačar
2019 Vuelta -- Primož Roglič
2019 Tour -- Egan Bernal
2019 Giro -- Richard Carapaz
2018 Vuelta -- Simon Yates
2018 Tour -- Geraint Thomas
2017 Giro -- Tom Dumoulin
2015 Vuelta -- Fabio Aru
2014 Giro -- Nairo Quintana
2013 Vuelta -- Chris Horner
2013 Tour -- Christopher Froome (the 2011 Vuelta was awarded later)
2012 Tour -- Bradley Wiggins
2012 Giro -- Ryder Hesjedal
2011 Vuelta -- Juan José Cobo (at the time)
2011 Tour -- Cadel Evans
2011 Giro -- Michele Scarponi (was first awarded in 2012, so should probably have been listed over Cobo)
2010 Vuelta -- Vincenzo Nibali
2010 Tour -- Andy Schleck (see note for 2011 Giro)
2009 Vuelta -- Alejandro Valverde
2008 Tour -- Carlos Sastre
2007 Vuelta -- Dennis Menchov (IIRC it was at the time his second GT win, but is currently his first)
2007 Tour -- Alberto Contador
2007 Giro -- Danilo Di Luca
2006 Vuelta -- Alexander Vinokourov
2006 Tour -- Óscar Pereiro (and for a brief period of time Floyd Landis)
2006 Giro -- Ivan Basso

The last time there were two years in a row without a new winner was back in 1973/1974 (in large part thanks to Merckx winning doubles both years).

I still can't believe how Ryder Hesjedal managed to win a GT. I'm still in as much disbelief now as I was watching it at the time.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I still can't believe how Ryder Hesjedal managed to win a GT. I'm still in as much disbelief now as I was watching it at the time.

Because Purito is a coward.

 

[ingsve]

With Seixas this might just be because I'm not following the junior ranks enough to appreciate how good he is, but I'm just always wary to vote for someone who, so far, has never shown anything close to a GT winning performance.

Ya, that's the big crux with any up and coming climber. We have seen many many climbers throughout the years who can climb with the best up a mountain or two and do well in one week races but who never really had the recovery or persistence to last a full GT. Before they actually get through that test it's hard to know who will be a contender or not and who will at best be a tourist a time or two in the top 10.

 

[ingsve]

The Noval that's been mentioned in this thread, I assume that is Benjamin Noval?

I just saw that he is 72kg at 16 years age. That's a pretty big boy for GTs nowadays isn't it? Is there anyone of a similar weight that has been competing for GTs in the past 10 years even?

He must have one hell of a motor though based on his junior results.