Future GT Winner

[Tank Engine]

Re:

Landa is going to Sky which means Froome train duties trump all else. Dumoulin I am not sold on.

Landa will "replace" Porte and thus lead Sky in the Giro. Given the ITTs there, he stands a very good chance.

I voted for Majka and Dumoulin, as I think they are the most likely. And, the most likely to win the TdF in the future... Majka himself said that he's best suited to the Tour, and he's learned to ride that boring, defensive style that everybody hates but wins GTs. He has learned the art of calculation. Dumoulin has to be heartened by this Vuelta despite the conclusion, and it was incredible to see him ride such a killer TT after two hard weeks in the unknown limits of his physiology. He's ready for this. A Tour with less steep climbs and a decent size TT should suit him well - although I guess his vulnerability in the multi-mountain stages is a danger. But honestly, if he had even two good teammates - which he will now that he's shown he's a contender - he would have closed that 20 seconds and won the Vuelta, and wouldn't be able to be on this poll. Neither of these guys is going to win next year, though. I think one or both of them will be on the TdF podium by 2018.

I agree with your comments on Dumoulin. He could well be a factor in the TdF, especially if the parcours is similar to 2012 and the team is based around him.

I have my doubts about Majka's passive style.He's not a great TT-ist, so he's going to have to take things into his own hands more, if he wants to win. I can certainly see him becoming a perennial podium finisher (maybe like Purito).

 

[SeriousSam]

Re: Re:

That we all seem to agree on Landa is remarkable given that his time trialling is so abject.

Well, take next year's Giro for example. Who's gonna take minutes out of Landa in a 11km prologue and a hillty TT?

LRP but apparently he's doing the Tour.
Nibali, Aru, Majka, Uran would all gain time. It doesn't necessarily have to be minutes, some of those are good climbers themselves and may not give up minutes to Landa in the mountains.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

That we all seem to agree on Landa is remarkable given that his time trialling is so abject.

Well, take next year's Giro for example. Who's gonna take minutes out of Landa in a 11km prologue and a hillty TT?

LRP but apparently he's doing the Tour.
Nibali, Aru, Majka, Uran would all gain time. It doesn't necessarily have to be minutes, some of those are good climbers themselves and may not give up minutes to Landa in the mountains.

I don't think Landa will give up minutes to Aru, but Nibali would be a problem, if we assume he's hitting 2013/2014 shape. I think Landa may be the 5th best climber in the world right now, maybe better. Fact is we haven't seen him go toe to toe with the so called 'big 4' in top shape and most of what he did in the Giro was on a leash.

 

[KyoGrey]

Landa yes, and Pinot and Dumoulin only if they change teams.

 

[Hakkapelit]

The only path i see for a Pinot victory is if he crashes out of TDF in an early stage and goes on a Vuelta-redemption mission.

 

[Billie]

Richie Porte I could also see win a GT. Much more than most of the guys in the poll.

 

[hrotha]

Guy's 30 and came in the top 10 of a GT exactly once, 5 years ago and largely thanks to a breakaway.

 

[Põhja Konn]

None of them are very likely to win one, thus I didn't vote.

Dumoulin may have a chance if he doesn't concentrate on the Tour. Quintana and Froome are too far ahead of him as GT GC-riders. Maybe Vuelta, if they continue designing most mountain stages in a way which discourages attacking more than 1-2k out.

Landa is a very good climber, but somewhat overrated I think. Although he shone against Contador in the Giro, this wasn't a Contador in peak form. More like 2013 version of Alberto than a '14 or '11 one. Together with Astanas tactics (leaving lot of what if's in the air) it makes Landa look bit stronger than he probably is. Crucially also he is absolutely atrocious at TT-ing. On the other hand he has time on his side. Basically he is like a poor mans Quintana.

As others have already mentioned, Pinot may have a chance if he stops concentrating on the Tour. Unfortunately, as a Frenchman in a French team, can't see it happening.

 

[Jspear]

Re:

Richie Porte I could also see win a GT. Much more than most of the guys in the poll.

Did you watch the 2014 Tour and the 2015 Giro?

 

[IndianCyclist]

Only Landa is explosive Rest are diesel. Purito is old. Dumoulin may win a TT heavy GT

 

[Irondan]

Re:

Only Landa is explosive Rest are diesel. Purito is old. Dumoulin may win a TT heavy GT

Why would he need it to be TT heavy?

He was one climb from winning this years Vuelta.

If he loses a kilo or two without losing power, he'll win a GT.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Only Landa is explosive Rest are diesel. Purito is old. Dumoulin may win a TT heavy GT

Why would he need it to be TT heavy?

He was one climb from winning this years Vuelta.

If he loses a kilo or two without losing power, he'll win a GT.

Same thing I think. But he has to climb with the very best to win a Tour, cause if you're not with the very best, you'll get crushed for minutes in the high mountains if need be. In the Giro, the climbing level is often slightly lower, but there's so many brutal climbs to get rid of them he has to make a lot of improvement as well. I think right now only a TT heavy Vuelta ( ) is within his capabilitlies

 

[hrotha]

Re: Re:

Why would he need it to be TT heavy?

He was one climb from winning this years Vuelta.

If he loses a kilo or two without losing power, he'll win a GT.

Did you see how this Vuelta was raced? In a proper GT, with proper gaps to the 10th-ish guy in the mountain stages (which is where Dumoulin was, consistently), he'd need a lot of ITT to make up for his losses. It won't be a matter of simpy dropping a kilo or two (not that that would necessarily be achievable) - he needs at least another big leap forward as a climber.

 

[SeriousSam]

Dropping a few kilos but no power is exactly that leap forward as a climber he needs.

 

[hrotha]

Well yeah, obviously that would make him climb faster. I'm saying I doubt it'd be enough, total power output being equal.

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

TD, Landa and Majka all have a shot. I just can't see TJVG doing it now, he seems to be cursed and simply isn't a strong enough climber. He'll always lose time to the more explosive guys on big finishes.

 

[BillyBrown]

I would opt for Landa and Majka as for now.
Regarding Majka's performence at the Vuelta I was kind of disappointed by his defensive approach to the race. He's been alwas behind some of his GC rivals. On the other hand I remember him from TdF '14 when he was second on one stage after long lasting wheelsucking behind Nibali and then went on an attack to win on another day. After that, during Tour de Pologne '14 he conducted a Contador-like assault on his oponents (decent riders like Izaguirre not top class climbers though) on some MTF to gain enough time to win that race. What I want to say is that he is making a little steps and gaining experience gradually. He was learning his leadership role at a GT. He's not a gambler. He was targeting Top5 and playing it safe. That can change if he gains more confidence - that actually happend at Vuelta '15. Still, I would not like to see neither Majka nor Landa being doms, what unfortunately is very likely to happen...

 

[Metabolol]

Landa, Pinot, Dumoulin, Zakarin. Dumoulin TDF , Landa Giro (Vuelta), Pinot Vuelta/Giro.

 

[Brullnux]

Landa and Pinot, and maybe Majka, but I'm getting this weird feeling that Majka will be a perennial podium placer, there will always be someone slightly better than him.

 

[Metabolol]

I don't think Majka will ever win a GT. But I have a definite feeling that Pinot can win a GT, probably the Vuelta as long as he stays away from the Tour. I also think he needs to change teams ( to a non-french team).

 

[PremierAndrew]

Voted for Bardet Landa Dumoulin and Pinot

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Landa, Pinot, Dumoulin, Zakarin. Dumoulin TDF , Landa Giro (Vuelta), Pinot Vuelta/Giro.

Great pick, why isn't he in the poll?

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

Landa, Pinot, Dumoulin, Zakarin. Dumoulin TDF , Landa Giro (Vuelta), Pinot Vuelta/Giro.

Great pick, why isn't he in the poll?

From what I can see from the poll list, the minimum criteria is at least 1 consistent top 10 GT result.

 

[jaylew]

Re:

Guy's 30 and came in the top 10 of a GT exactly once, 5 years ago and largely thanks to a breakaway.

A valid point but I still give him a better chance than most of the guys in the poll. Then again, I wouldn't be surpsised if none of those guys won a GT and I only voted for one guy.

I'm surprised by all the Majka votes. He's one of the guys I give the least chance.

 

[jaylew]

For the fourth year in a row I would like to conduct a poll on the question, "Who will win a Grand Tour in the future?" The previous three polls gave a remarkable result. Each time the winner of the poll went on to win a GT the next year: Froome (Tour 2013), Quintana (Giro 2014) and Aru (Vuelta 2015). I think it will be hard to continue this series, because there's no guarantee that there will be a new name next year, but it doesn't have to happen in 2016.

You have more than one vote. Vote for anyone you expect to win a GT at some point in his career.

If you have riders in mind who aren't in the poll you can mention them in the forum.

These are the threads from the past three years:
2012
2013
2014

Here's a link to a similar poll I did back in 2010 (forgive the Purito misstype - couldn't change it).

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=10316

We also kinda got that one right, depending on how you look at it. Anyway, interesting to look back and see how things actually turned out.