Future Monument Winners?

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Which rider(s) will win at least one monument?

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Pantani_lives

Pantani_lives

May 3, 2010
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The last eight monuments have been won by only two different riders, which is an unprecedented dominance. For other riders it seems almost impossible at the moment to win one. Yet it will happen at one point. Which of these riders do you expect to win at least one monument in their career? You have multiple votes. If you have other riders in mind, you can mention them in the thread.
 
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Netserk

Netserk

Apr 30, 2011
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Currently active monument winners, sorted by their first monument victory:
  • Kristoff (2014)
  • Degenkolb (2015)
  • Démare (2016)
  • Poels (2016)
  • Chaves (2016)
  • Kwiatkowski (2017)
  • Jungels (2018)
  • Alaphilippe (2019)
  • Bettiol (2019)
  • Fuglsang (2019)
  • Mollema (2019)
  • Van Aert (2020)
  • Roglič (2020)
  • Van der Poel (2020)
  • Stuyven (2021)
  • Asgreen (2021)
  • Pogačar (2021)
  • Mohorič (2022)
  • Van Baarle (2022)
  • Evenepoel (2022)
  • Philipsen (2024)
 
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K

Kwaremonster

Apr 6, 2023
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Pantani_lives said:
The last eight monuments have been won by only two different riders, which is an unprecedented dominance. For other riders it seems almost impossible at the moment to win one. Yet it will happen at one point. Which of these riders do you expect to win at least one monument in their career? You have multiple votes. If you have other riders in mind, you can mention them in the thread.
Click to expand...
He may never live up to the hype but the first name that came to my mind was Matthew Brennan.
 
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Netserk

Netserk

Apr 30, 2011
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Short term, it looks very bleak. Sanremo, Roubaix and Lombardia are the most open. Pedersen can win without a fluke, but I don't expect him to. Ganna too.

Bling is my 3rd pick, and even the very small chance that Vingegaard will deliver in Lombardia begins to look attractive for 4th.
 
S

Sciatic

Mar 4, 2011
7,164
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Netserk said:
Currently active monument winners, sorted by their first monument victory:
  • Kristoff (2014)
  • Degenkolb (2015)
  • Démare (2016)
  • Poels (2016)
  • Chaves (2016)
  • Kwiatkowski (2017)
  • Jungels (2018)
  • Alaphilippe (2019)
  • Bettiol (2019)
  • Fuglsang (2019)
  • Mollema (2019)
  • Van Aert (2020)
  • Roglič (2020)
  • Van der Poel (2020)
  • Stuyven (2021)
  • Asgreen (2021)
  • Pogačar (2021)
  • Mohorič (2022)
  • Van Baarle (2022)
  • Evenepoel (2022)
  • Philipsen (2024)
Click to expand...
Interesting thing about that list: I think less than 1/2 of those would be considered regular "classics riders." The others are considered primarily sprinters (4) or primarily climbers/GC guys. Though there are some that are hard to typecast because of their versatility: Pog, Remco, Kwiat.
 
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Ilmaestro99

Ilmaestro99

Apr 13, 2021
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Tibo de Grosso wins one sprint in tour of Turkey and is on this list?

Meanwhile you don't include riders like hircshi, ghirmay, Gregoire, Vaquelin, Lennie Martinez, buitrago, van gills, Christophe Laporte, vlasov, Matthew Brennen, morgordo etc

Very strange
 
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Dekker_Tifosi

Dekker_Tifosi

Mar 13, 2009
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Ilmaestro99 said:
Tibo de Grosso wins one sprint in tour of Turkey and is on this list?

Meanwhile you don't include riders like hircshi, ghirmay, Gregoire, Vaquelin, Lennie Martinez, buitrago, van gills, Christophe Laporte, vlasov, Matthew Brennen, morgordo etc

Very strange
Click to expand...
Tibor del Grosso was 6th in his first WT one day race (Dwars door Vlaanderen) which is more of a reason he got put on that list I think.
 
Netserk

Netserk

Apr 30, 2011
44,198
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The conclusion I came to in the GT thread after @Squire's question about whom to include, is that for an annual poll it may be better to ask who is the most likely next new winner. Hopefully, that will take place within the next two years, and so the youngest riders can wait for a future poll to be included.

Netserk said:
I think the best criterion for including someone in the poll is how likely they are to be the next first time winner. So while young riders have many more years to land a victory, they are not necessarily the most likely to do so within a year or two. And so, if their most likely years for success is a couple of years down the road, they can be included in a later poll.

I don't think Adam Yates need to improve, he just needs to ride the Giro next year in a similar form to what he achieved for the Tour the past two years to have a better opportunity than some of the poll options will ever have (again).

So if it was just up to me (also somewhat weighting which options others would likely find plausible):
  1. Adam Yates
  2. João Almeida
  3. Carlos Rodríguez
  4. Enric Mas
  5. Juan Ayuso
  6. Antonio Tiberi
  7. Matteo Jorgenson
  8. Derek Gee
  9. Cian Uijtdebroeks
  10. Felix Gall
Click to expand...

The difference with monuments though is that we have 5 races per year, and usually many more new winners, so a poll with multiple votes may be better here than there.
 
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S

Sciatic

Mar 4, 2011
7,164
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Pantani_lives said:
The last eight monuments have been won by only two different riders, which is an unprecedented dominance. For other riders it seems almost impossible at the moment to win one. Yet it will happen at one point. Which of these riders do you expect to win at least one monument in their career? You have multiple votes. If you have other riders in mind, you can mention them in the thread.
Click to expand...
I can't vouch for the accuracy of this guy's data, but it looks pretty correct. Show that the last time so few riders dominated the monuments was the decade of the 1970's, when only 19 riders won monuments over that ten-year span. That's mainly because just between the two them, Merckx and De Vlaeminck scooped up 24 of the 30 possible wins. Similar scenario we're seeing in this decade.
Scroll to the bottom for the monuments info:
sicycle.wordpress.com

Grand Tour and Monument Winners by Decade

This is a page I unapologetically must give credit to the Wikipedia page on Tennis Grand Slam men’s singles champions to, particularly its (I thought) snazzy graphics on the number of titles …
sicycle.wordpress.com sicycle.wordpress.com
 
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Red Rick

Red Rick

Feb 20, 2012
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Cannot think of one name that doesn't have one already that I think is >50% to win one in their career. Guess I'll roll Ganna in Sanremo.

Maybe Nys in Sanremo is actually the best long term shout I can think of. He should deffo have better climbing legs than Van der Poel and he should be able to handle Pog in a sprint.

If you look at this list of riders that is unlikely to win one and compare it to a lot of past winners you have to think they were extremely silly scheduling their date of birth.
 
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Red Rick

Red Rick

Feb 20, 2012
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Krzysztof_O said:
Monuments are as locked as ever nowadays. Pogi and MVP winning almost all of them plus there is also Remco. Obviously MSR remains the most open but even there a group of riders that can survive Pogi's attack is very small.
Click to expand...
Frankly I think there's a bit of a bigger group that can survive it but most of them are very busy avoiding Sanremo pretending it's still a sprinters race.
 
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