Milan San Remo, March 21, 2026, 298 km monument

[Berniece]

MVP was on Pog's wheel almost the whole finale last year. He had enough in tank to attack once but Pog was the strongest on those climbs. Obviously it doesn't mean much as long as MVP is good enough to follow (it's likely he's good enough). We will see, sprint between them is a likely scenario. UAE will have to sacrifice Del Toro indeed if they were to launch Pog on Cipressa. But maybe they should play 2 vs 1 game this time.

MVDP took over every time Pogacar stopped attacking, and then Pog tried again

Here are two main scenarios:

1) UAE tries Cipressa attack again like last year: Del Toro is sacrificed, Pog attacks furiously and likely Van der Poel follows. In this scenario something similar to last year will happen. Sprint between Pog, Van der Poel and Ganna (or someone else strong enough to match them). Van der Poel is most likely to win.

2) UAE will try to launch Del Toro first (it could be on Cipressa or on Poggio after strong Cipressa pace). Del Toro goes ballistic (suicide attack) but baits Van der Poel into a strong reaction (with Pog on his wheel). Once MVP deletes Del Toro threat Pogacar counters. I think this scenario is more likely to succeed for UAE than the first but who knows. UAE should finally try it.

They should go for scenario 2, but they won't because they want Pog to win. Not even sure Pog is willing to share such a leadership status in a monument that he hasn't won yet.

 

[Squire]

We need a Tobias Lund Andresen win to make those climbers rethink their life decisions.

 

[Red Rick]

Here are two main scenarios:

1) UAE tries Cipressa attack again like last year: Del Toro is sacrificed, Pog attacks furiously and likely Van der Poel follows. In this scenario something similar to last year will happen. Sprint between Pog, Van der Poel and Ganna (or someone else strong enough to match them). Van der Poel is most likely to win.

2) UAE will try to launch Del Toro first (it could be on Cipressa or on Poggio after strong Cipressa pace). Del Toro goes ballistic (suicide attack) but baits Van der Poel into a strong reaction (with Pog on his wheel). Once MVP deletes Del Toro threat Pogacar counters. I think this scenario is more likely to succeed for UAE than the first but who knows. UAE should finally try it.

No you assume Del Toro, after setting up Pogacar's attack, will at least be in G2 so depending on how it splits you may be able to play the numbers game.

 

[Gigs_98]

I haven't followed this season super closely so far but it seems to me that Philipsen is not among the main favorites this year, right? I think this makes a difference because I think Alpecin actually also wants a hard race, where MvdP and Pogacar are either way ahead of the peloton like last year or MvdP goes over the Poggio solo like three years ago. The scenario from two years ago where the two go over the top together but only like 5 seconds in front of a medium sized group is no longer a good back up option for Alpecin if they don't have the best sprinter in that group.

My first thought when people said that Del Toro should attack on the Cipressa was that in this scenario Alpecin should just chill and pull Del Toro back on the flat like it's been done to any attacker on the Cipressa except Pogacar in more than a decade. But this feels more like the "make sure Pogacar doesn't win" tactic and less like the tactic maximizing MvdP's chances. I mean last year following the UAE attack worked out brilliantly for him. I understand that this would create a 2 vs 1 situation but my gut feeling is that if Del Toro attacks and MvdP follows the very next thing to happen is Pogacar attacking and if you can follow that attack too you are essentially back to the scenario from last year.

 

[Tim Cahill]

Hopefully we get a solo Del Toro on Cipressa so we can watch him slowly reeled in by Emil Verstrynge, Ben Swift and some random Q36.5 domestique and nobody ever tries it again.

 

[Squire]

I haven't followed this season super closely so far

Explains why we've had so many good races.

I don't think we can draw too many conclusions about Philipsen yet. He didn't really do much before he won in 2024 either. Only thing is that there have been indications that he has focused a bit on toughening up, at the possible expense of his top-end judging by Algarve. But that was also his first race, so who knows.

I agree that we are unlikely to have a 2x UAE vs MVDP situation. The other 180 or so riders aren't just gonna sit back and watch Del Toro and Pog ride away hand in hand on the Cipressa. Del Toro would probably have to be sacrificed to create enough carnage for anything to work from that far out.

I'm hoping for equally good action as last year, but with a bigger group coming back at the end. The sprinters need to reclaim their classic.

 

[Netserk]

philoctetes is the second greatest favourite and one of the most underrated riders in the world after some bad luck last year

 

[Red Rick]

I haven't followed this season super closely so far but it seems to me that Philipsen is not among the main favorites this year, right? I think this makes a difference because I think Alpecin actually also wants a hard race, where MvdP and Pogacar are either way ahead of the peloton like last year or MvdP goes over the Poggio solo like three years ago. The scenario from two years ago where the two go over the top together but only like 5 seconds in front of a medium sized group is no longer a good back up option for Alpecin if they don't have the best sprinter in that group.

My first thought when people said that Del Toro should attack on the Cipressa was that in this scenario Alpecin should just chill and pull Del Toro back on the flat like it's been done to any attacker on the Cipressa except Pogacar in more than a decade. But this feels more like the "make sure Pogacar doesn't win" tactic and less like the tactic maximizing MvdP's chances. I mean last year following the UAE attack worked out brilliantly for him. I understand that this would create a 2 vs 1 situation but my gut feeling is that if Del Toro attacks and MvdP follows the very next thing to happen is Pogacar attacking and if you can follow that attack too you are essentially back to the scenario from last year.

I have no idea why Van der Poel should get anxious waiting for the Poggio if he's in great shape. He wasn't in 2024.

 

[AlfaLum]

Brennan will win this one 😅

 

[canina82]

I haven't followed this season super closely so far but it seems to me that Philipsen is not among the main favorites this year, right? I think this makes a difference because I think Alpecin actually also wants a hard race, where MvdP and Pogacar are either way ahead of the peloton like last year or MvdP goes over the Poggio solo like three years ago. The scenario from two years ago where the two go over the top together but only like 5 seconds in front of a medium sized group is no longer a good back up option for Alpecin if they don't have the best sprinter in that group.

My first thought when people said that Del Toro should attack on the Cipressa was that in this scenario Alpecin should just chill and pull Del Toro back on the flat like it's been done to any attacker on the Cipressa except Pogacar in more than a decade. But this feels more like the "make sure Pogacar doesn't win" tactic and less like the tactic maximizing MvdP's chances. I mean last year following the UAE attack worked out brilliantly for him. I understand that this would create a 2 vs 1 situation but my gut feeling is that if Del Toro attacks and MvdP follows the very next thing to happen is Pogacar attacking and if you can follow that attack too you are essentially back to the scenario from last year.

Alpecin doesn't need to do anything. Their only job is to put MVP in the first 20 in Cipressa.

 

[Berniece]

Alpecin doesn't need to do anything. Their only job is to put MVP in the first 20 in Cipressa.

That's too far back. He needs to be max 2 places behind Pog, assuming UAE has the lead when starting the climb

 

[Sciatic]

Here are two main scenarios:

1) UAE tries Cipressa attack again like last year: Del Toro is sacrificed, Pog attacks furiously and likely Van der Poel follows. In this scenario something similar to last year will happen. Sprint between Pog, Van der Poel and Ganna (or someone else strong enough to match them). Van der Poel is most likely to win.

2) UAE will try to launch Del Toro first (it could be on Cipressa or on Poggio after strong Cipressa pace). Del Toro goes ballistic (suicide attack) but baits Van der Poel into a strong reaction (with Pog on his wheel). Once MVP deletes Del Toro threat Pogacar counters. I think this scenario is more likely to succeed for UAE than the first but who knows. UAE should finally try it.

If this was a race Pogacar had already won, I think the #2 strategy wouldmake sense. But Pogacar really wants to win here and knows he will only have so many chances. Not sure he wants to gamble within the chance Del Tori goes early and then holds on. MVDP has won here and can play it cool just sticking with Pogacar.

 

[dazaau]

I think people put too much weight on del Toro, he is amazing but he is still mortal. He will have a host of people following him that can keep up on the relatively shallow slopes.

Even if Pog goes over cipressa solo without mvdp he is stuffed as the group will catch him. He needs strong riders (like mvdp and ganna) to pull with but then they will nuke him in the sprint.

Can't wait, the fact Pog wants this so bad but it does not suit him makes it an amazing watch as he tries inhuman things to try make it work.