Milan San Remo, March 21, 2026, 298 km monument

[Berniece]

I meant Del Toro trying sth on Cipressa (and Pogacar reattacking after MVP neutralizes the Mexican). Anyway it will be almost impossible to drop MVP on Cipressa, he's in great form. If they nuke Cipressa and MVP can't be dropped then maybe Pog will slow down and wait for another chance in the finale?

I also think that's what they need to do, but they wont. I also don't see Pog slowing down

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Would MVDP follow a Del Toro attack on Cipressa? Seems like a task he would leave for some second tier contender (Wout) to successfully complete.

If they can't neutralize Del Toro's attack quickly then it becomes nasty for Van der Poel: he will have to do the work with Pogacar on his wheel and the difference of energy spent can hit him hard at some point. For Van der Poel it's good to neutralize Del Toro quickly: he can wait a moment and see how others go but won't wait too long if he thinks others can't do the job.

I also think that's what they need to do, but they wont. I also don't see Pog slowing down

Well, going away with MVP basically guarantees Pogacar a podium place and there's a chance for some miracle in the finale. That's the way Pogacar can think then. One rival instead of ten.

 

[Berniece]

If they can't neutralize Del Toro's attack quickly then it becomes nasty for Van der Poel: he will have to do the work with Pogacar on his wheel and the difference of energy spent can hit him hard at some point. For Van der Poel it's good to neutralize Del Toro quickly: he can wait a moment and see how others go but won't wait too long if he thinks others can't do the job.

I'm not so sure about that. Does Del Toro have what it takes to go solo for 30km's? This isn't like when Pogacar attacks and everyone tries to follow so the whole peloton is in shambles. Del Toro attacks, and teams organize themselves.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I'm not so sure about that. Does Del Toro have what it takes to go solo for 30km's? This isn't like when Pogacar attacks and everyone tries to follow so the whole peloton is in shambles. Del Toro attacks, and teams organize themselves.

Well, Del Toro's attack probably means Cipressa isn't as brutal as last year and the chasers will have a better chance to catch the Mexican later indeed.

 

[hayneplane]

If they can't neutralize Del Toro's attack quickly then it becomes nasty for Van der Poel: he will have to do the work with Pogacar on his wheel and the difference of energy spent can hit him hard at some point. For Van der Poel it's good to neutralize Del Toro quickly: he can wait a moment and see how others go but won't wait too long if he thinks others can't do the job.



Well, going away with MVP basically guarantees Pogacar a podium place and there's a chance for some miracle in the finale. That's the way Pogacar can think then. One rival instead of ten.

I agree that it surely plays better for MVDP to try and snap close a Del Toro attack utilising the fact he has the best explosive 20 second power in the world rather than having to reel him in once a 100 metre gap has opened.

 

[Berniece]

i agree with most here. All I will say is if MvdP plays the insecure Phillipsen card I will lose my ***. How powerfull the sprint of MvdP clearly is, theres no way he lose 1v1 vs Pog in MSR.

He didn't do that last year, so why would he this year?

 

[jono]

i agree with most here. All I will say is if MvdP plays the insecure Phillipsen card I will lose my ***. How powerfull the sprint of MvdP clearly is, theres no way he lose 1v1 vs Pog in MSR.

I'm not quite sure I understand what you mean by this. Has it happened before, in your opinion?

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I'm not quite sure I understand what you mean by this. Has it happened before, in your opinion?

MSR 2024. Pogacar was first on Poggio closely followed by MVP, who let the chasers (including Philipsen) catch them. Last year it was a different story.

 

[James M]

Also another thing. I agree with the tactical approach being presented here but personally I have doubts that Del Toro can do a lead out like Narvaez on these gradients. Am I the only one?

And i mean on these particular gradients only i struggle to see anyone in the world better than Narvaez leadout these days here, besides maybe Pedersen on a Cipressa like climb?

Dont get me wrong Del Toro is up there and maybe im wrong and he’ll surprise me but I dont rate and expect del toro to do a leadout better than narvaez on a cipressa climb, this is 4%.

 

[jono]

MSR 2024. Pogacar was first on Poggio closely followed by MVP, who let the chasers (including Philipsen) catch them. Last year it was a different story.

I just re-watched the entire Poggio from last year and I don't see it that way at all. There was only one point where MVDP sat up, but his whole group did and it was not a point in a race where it would have been advantageous to push on (they would have been easily caught as Pogacar stopped riding).

 

[Berniece]

Dont get me wrong Del Toro is up there and maybe im wrong and he’ll surprise me but I dont rate and expect del toro to do a leadout better than narvaez on a cipressa climb, this is 4%.

What was the percentage at UAE Tour stage 1? I would think you can just let Del Toro drill it like he did there

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I just re-watched the entire Poggio from last year and I don't see it that way at all. There was only one point where MVDP sat up, but his whole group did and it was not a point in a race where it would have been advantageous to push on (they would have been easily caught as Pogacar stopped riding).

I meant 2024.

 

[jono]

I meant 2024.

Sorry, that is what I meant as well.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Sorry, that is what I meant as well.

Van der Poel and Pogacar had a gap on Poggio top but Van der Poel chose not to cooperate and let Philipsen group catch them (as he explained, he heard by radio that Philipsen is not far behind).

 

[jono]

Van der Poel and Pogacar had a gap on Poggio top but Van der Poel chose not to cooperate and let Philipsen group catch them (as he explained, he heard by radio that Philipsen is not far behind).

When it was just the two of them, they had a gap of two (2) seconds dropping off of Poggio with a group behind that notably included Pidcock, a much faster descender than both. It was not a winning position.

 

[hayneplane]

He didn't do that last year, so why would he this year?

Philipsen got dropped cold very early on the Cipressa even before the pace got hot so that card fell out of the deck long before they could choose whether to play it or not.

 

[Berniece]

well thats the outlier which maybe makes me think he will suprise me that was impressive still I dont expect it here.

Its partly also duo to the fact I also see noone besides Pedersen in 2026 who could do a better leadout than Narvaez fresh on 4%, not that I think Del Toro will be bad per se, cause I think he will be good, just not as good.

Besides i also think even if pogi is clearly their goal which he is, its better to use del toro to force mvdp in the wind and gamble than to drop mvdp of the wheel on these gradients, which simply shouldnt be possible in itself.

If UAE is really smart, they'll try to find a way in letting WVA take 5-10s. MVDP will do everything in his power to close that gap.

 

[Lorzenz08]

For some reason I think the scenario will be almost the exact same as last year, except no other than MVDP and Poggi will follow by the end of Cipressa.

 

[TourOfSardinia]

For some reason I think the scenario will be almost the exact same as last year, except no other than MVDP and Poggi will follow by the end of Cipressa.

Follow whom?
Ganna!

 

[Sciatic]

Would MVDP follow a Del Toro attack on Cipressa? Seems like a task he would leave for some second tier contender (Wout) to successfully complete.

Pretty sure MVDP will just shadow Pogacar. He's already won here (and probably will again) so he can afford to gamble. Pogacar is the one who will have a harder time watching the win go up the road.

 

[vappa]

Del Toro cannot go solo from Cipressa, everyone saying that is delusional. His absolute limit is 9:00, and even if the peloton goes 10:00, which by today's standards is really slow, and he has 1min gap on top, there's 0% he wins. I don't see why MvdP would even bother closing him, there will be enough doms to do that. You're just giving away the win if you try that

 

[canina82]

I'm pretty sure no one can do what Pogacar did in Cipressa last year. Not Del Toro, not MVP, not anyone.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

For some reason I think the scenario will be almost the exact same as last year, except no other than MVDP and Poggi will follow by the end of Cipressa.

I agree that it's the most likely scenario.

 

[canina82]

The wind will be important. I hope for a tailwind/crosswind, if not the race will probably end in a bunch sprint.

 

[James M]

I'm pretty sure no one can do what Pogacar did in Cipressa last year. Not Del Toro, not MVP, not anyone.

Thats not in question by anyone i hope. But this is more of thinking other scenarioes and no not on Cipressa but on Poggio and first and foremost in a way to force him into the wind as the drag is exponential.

Toro goes - Pog drops the wheel - forcing Mvdp to close it - Pogacar immidiately use that leadout to go counter could maybe/maybe not up the probability, who knows havent tried. Anyway its almost an impossible task either way on 4%