Milan San Remo, March 21, 2026, 298 km monument

[Berniece]

The wind will be important. I hope for a tailwind/crosswind, if not the race will probably end in a bunch sprint.

If not, the race won't explode until Poggio. Doesn't mean we'll get a bunch sprint

 

[vappa]

Thats not in question by anyone i hope. But this is more of thinking other scenarioes and no not on Cipressa but on Poggio and first and foremost in a way to force him into the wind as the drag is exponential.

Toro goes - Pog drops the wheel - forcing Mvdp to close it - Pogacar immidiately use that leadout to go counter could maybe/maybe not up the probability, who knows havent tried. Anyway its almost an impossible task either way on 4%

Why would MvdP bother closing Del Toro?? Even if he gets 1 minute advantage he will be caught amd then there's nobody who can do leadout for Pogacar on Poggio, as if that would work anyway

 

[canina82]

If not, the race won't explode until Poggio. Doesn't mean we'll get a bunch sprint

A headwind in Cipressa means a headwind in Poggio.

 

[Berniece]

A headwind in Cipressa means a headwind in Poggio.

I know. I'm saying that doesn't mean we get a bunch sprint. If Pogacar goes all out from the foot of the Poggio, you think we'll get a bunch sprint if there's headwind?

 

[canina82]

I know. I'm saying that doesn't mean we get a bunch sprint

A scenario much more likely compared to when they have a tailwind.

 

[Berniece]

A scenario much more likely compared to when they have a tailwind.

Yes, tailwind favours attacks

 

[Sciatic]

Del Toro cannot go solo from Cipressa, everyone saying that is delusional. His absolute limit is 9:00, and even if the peloton goes 10:00, which by today's standards is really slow, and he has 1min gap on top, there's 0% he wins. I don't see why MvdP would even bother closing him, there will be enough doms to do that. You're just giving away the win if you try that

It also seems questionable to assume Del Toro would get away solo (even if that was the strategy). Based on last week’s racing we know, for example, that Jorgenson will have no trouble staying with Del Toro on these shallow gradients. Others may as well.

 

[James M]

Why would MvdP bother closing Del Toro?? Even if he gets 1 minute advantage he will be caught amd then there's nobody who can do leadout for Pogacar on Poggio, as if that would work anyway

were talking about Poggio, not cipressa

Ofcourse MvdP would react on Poggio. Cipressa is another story but noone talked about that besides you, hard to reply to you when you reply to a quote with something else than the quote says.

 

[Berniece]

How are the first weather predictions for saturday?

Rain and tailwind when going on Cipressa/Poggio

 

[ingsve]

My prediction is that UAE without Narvaez and Wellens will be weaker on the Cipressa and Poggio than normal so there won't be as much of a selection as for example last year and it will end up with a sprint of around 20 riders or so.

 

[jono]

So many people talk like it is just a matter of UAE "getting the positioning right" into Cipressa as if preventing exactly that from happening wasn't the explicit goal of half the riders in the race.

 

[Berniece]

So many people talk like it is just a matter of UAE "getting the positioning right" into Cipressa as if preventing exactly that from happening wasn't the explicit goal of half the riders in the race.

Not necessarily preventing that, it’s just that everyone wants to be at the front if they know it’s going to explode there

 

[topcat]

UAE will plan to attack on Cipressa, be in a position to attack on Poggio, del Toro will set up Pog, MvdP will follow and win. I'll be watching to see what Alaphilippe is going to do.

 

[Gratemans]

I'm pretty sure no one can do what Pogacar did in Cipressa last year. Not Del Toro, not MVP, not anyone.

He doesn't get a prize for that though..

As far as UAE not being able to force big gaps to the rest of the peloton this time.. maybe. I think they'll still be able to shed most of them. But a big gap to the rest also benefits Mathieu, assuming he wants to win himself.
Sure he has a decent sprint, but there are quite a few that'll beat him if he brings them to the finish.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Everybody knows that Teddy is a tactical genius: he wins most races by simply pushing the pedals harder (very few phenoms in cycling history used this tactic so effectively). In MSR he will need to take his tactical brilliance to the next level: that's why it's so anticipated! Will the biggest brain in the peleton finally solve the most difficult puzzle?

 

[LookProGoSlow]

Pog in the race usually plays into his hands, because he essentially 'just' needs to follow that one wheel and he'll be the favourite in a sprint. But Del Toro being so strong seems like a huge issue. How does he prevent getting worked over? Even if he gets over the Cipressa, with Del Toro around or close by it could become very complicated very quickly.

Do you think Pogacar will let Del Toro win? I am pretty certain MVDP will let Del Toro ride if he goes and let Pogacar deal with it. He already won twice whereas Pogacar really wants to. DT presence might become more a pain in the ass for Pogacar than for MVDP.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Do you think Pogacar will let Del Toro win? I am pretty certain MVDP will let Del Toro ride if he goes and let Pogacar deal with it. He already won twice whereas Pogacar really wants to. DT presence might become more a pain in the ass for Pogacar than for MVDP.

This doesn't work like that. It's a monument and MVP (who's in superb form) wants to win it again, which means beating anyone who's in front (Pogacar, Del Toro or anyone else). He just won't be "more relaxed" and count on Pogi chasing his teammate. He will chase the Mexican (albeit likely not alone but with some cooperation).

 

[LookProGoSlow]

This doesn't work like that. It's a monument and MVP (who's in superb form) wants to win it again, which means beating anyone who's in front (Pogacar, Del Toro or anyone else). He just won't be "more relaxed" and count on Pogi chasing his teammate. He will chase the Mexican (albeit likely not alone but with some cooperation

Of course. I agree, but not with the part that DT can be used as bait for MVDP. Pogacar wants to win badly and everyone else knows that.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Of course. I agree, but not with the part that DT can be used as bait for MVDP. Pogacar wants to win badly and everyone else knows that.

Pogacar has to understand that baiting MVP with DT attack could increase his own chances (as DT will very likely be caught).

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Everybody knows that Teddy is a tactical genius: he wins most races by simply pushing the pedals harder (very few phenoms in cycling history used this tactic so effectively). In MSR he will need to take his tactical brilliance to the next level: that's why it's so anticipated! Will the biggest brain in the peleton finally solve the most difficult puzzle?

I am quite sure the Visma riders have the biggest brains. We have previously seen their brains not being able to fit inside their helmets, which led to them starting to use some of the biggest ones ever produced.

 

[canina82]

Tailwind, sunny and new tarmac in the poggio. I expect a wildcard to win MSR.

 

[dercuforever]

This doesn't work like that. It's a monument and MVP (who's in superb form) wants to win it again, which means beating anyone who's in front (Pogacar, Del Toro or anyone else). He just won't be "more relaxed" and count on Pogi chasing his teammate. He will chase the Mexican (albeit likely not alone but with some cooperation).

I've yet to see MVP chase someone alone. Dude is a genius poker player. He always manage to get other to work at least as hard a him.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I've yet to see MVP chase someone alone. Dude is a genius poker player. He always manage to get other to work at least as hard a him.

Well, if Wout is there then Matthieu will use the help of his old friend They are like family according to Wout's wife.

 

[dobrien]

Well, if Wout is there then Matthieu will use the help of his old friend They are like family according to Wout's wife.

If Wout is there and takes ONE pedal stroke in support of MVDP I will throw something at my TV screen.

 

[ChasingPotatoes]

2 observations:
Pogs cipressa attack worked for 1 single reason: an in-form Ganna that was perfectly positioned to stick to the wheel, so Pog had the perfect companions to relay between cipressa and poggio.

Without Ganna’s incredible effort on the cipressa, mvdp could have been in real trouble on the Cipressa. Mvdp got slightly gapped on the poggio so he was on the limit.
Ofcourse, pog was also on the limit but he did the lion’s share of pulling on the climbs.

So yes, Pog in the same shape as last year can drop mvdp. But mvdp has probably specially trained even harder to be able to hold Pog’s wheel as we saw in Tirreno. And Ganna is probably not as strong as last year. So we can either expect Pog / mvdp on Cipressa getting a gap but waiting in the run up to the poggio for a second attack (and tactical attacks on the flat), or both of them going for it and trying to fight it out on the Poggio (super risky for mvdp), or pog getting a real gap and going solo from the Cipressa (it wouldn’t surprise me in the least he pulls this off).