Milan San Remo, March 21, 2026, 298 km monument

[LookProGoSlow]

I've yet to see MVP chase someone alone. Dude is a genius poker player. He always manage to get other to work at least as hard a him.

my point exactly.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

my point exactly.

He used Ganna very well during Pogi's most powerful surge on Cipressa.

 

[canina82]

I've yet to see MVP chase someone alone. Dude is a genius poker player. He always manage to get other to work at least as hard a him.

2019 AGR - He actually won the race but he was working way more than any other rider in his group.

I don't think he is a genius tactically, he just is much better than everyone not named Pogacar.

 

[Berniece]

I don't think he is a genius tactically, he just is much better than everyone not named Pogacar.

His end game tactics are quite genius most of the time. Flanders 2020, Flanders 2022, WC CX 2023, MSR 2025 come to mind quickly.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Poor tadej oocagar only has 4 superdomestiques at his disposal instead of 6. Huge asterisk next to whoever wins this race now.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Poor tadej oocagar only has 4 superdomestiques at his disposal instead of 6. Huge asterisk next to whoever wins this race now.

They should have bought that big French born super talent before the season started. Nico Vinukurov could have made a major difference in this race.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Poor tadej oocagar only has 4 superdomestiques at his disposal instead of 6. Huge asterisk next to whoever wins this race now.

UAE should've played with $$$ and bought Van der Poel as Pogi's dom. This race would be fairer to poor Teddy.

 

[jono]

Mathieu was rightly criticized early in his road career for riding naively, lacking patience, riding too eagerly, and failing to conserve energy. As someone mentioned above, he did a ton of work on the front to win Amstel 2019 but might not have needed to had he ridden smarter. He was probably the strongest rider at Flanders 2019 but made too many mistakes and lacked the patience (and team strength) to be present when it mattered.

In fact, in terms of pure strength and winning fitness, his 2019 season was probably better than any other period until at least mid-2023, especially when you factor in that was also the one season when he was probably the best XCO rider in the world.

But he is good tactically now. Did MVDP need Ganna's help to win last year, or for Wout to close the gap on Poggio in 2023? Probably not, but he certainly isn't going to turn down the assistance, where a younger Mathieu probably snap closes the gaps all at once and wastes bullets.

 

[topcat]

If Wout is there and takes ONE pedal stroke in support of MVDP I will throw something at my TV screen.

What are you planning on throwing at your tv screen? A banana skin? I view this race as a potential banana skin for Pog. Even if he gets a gap on Poggio, how does he stay away on the descent?

 

[mikks]

MVDP used to race way more aggressively or maybe in more naive way - if that’s the right word—a few years ago. But if I remember right, around 2021–2022 when he had those back issues, he talked pretty openly about needing to race smarter, can’t attack everywhere anymore, has to save energy, and career won’t last forever etc. So yeah, feels like he’s been riding a smarter these past years.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Meanwhile, a certain 31 year old Belgian still hasn't learned not to close gaps for his much stronger rivals

 

[YavorD]

Meanwhile, a certain 31 year old Belgian still hasn't learned not to close gaps for his much stronger rivals

Maybe he just thinks it's still 2022 and he's still among the strongest..?

 

[TrekCyclist]

I don't think MVDP is the only rider in the peleton capable of follwing a pontential Pogacar attack on Cipressa. It was rather surprising last year that it was only him and Ganna following. At the end its a 4% gradient climb.

 

[hayneplane]

I don't think MVDP is the only rider in the peleton capable of follwing a pontential Pogacar attack on Cipressa. It was rather surprising last year that it was only him and Ganna following. At the end its a 4% gradient climb.

Only one other rider even stayed attached for a short time (Gregoire) and that was off a very suboptimal leadout.

 

[Berniece]

I don't think MVDP is the only rider in the peleton capable of follwing a pontential Pogacar attack on Cipressa. It was rather surprising last year that it was only him and Ganna following. At the end its a 4% gradient climb.

Pidcock crashed right before, WVA wasn't there. It's all about positioning, if the right persons are in the right order they might go over the top with 5-10 riders

 

[theyoungest]

2019 AGR - He actually won the race but he was working way more than any other rider in his group.

I don't think he is a genius tactically, he just is much better than everyone not named Pogacar.

In a situation where there's a tactical game to be played, you want to bet your money on MVDP. And not on Van Aert, for instance. MVDP usually makes all the right choices in the final of a race. It's not just physical strength.

 

[Sciatic]

Do you think Pogacar will let Del Toro win? I am pretty certain MVDP will let Del Toro ride if he goes and let Pogacar deal with it. He already won twice whereas Pogacar really wants to. DT presence might become more a pain in the ass for Pogacar than for MVDP.

Exactly

 

[Sciatic]

This doesn't work like that. It's a monument and MVP (who's in superb form) wants to win it again, which means beating anyone who's in front (Pogacar, Del Toro or anyone else). He just won't be "more relaxed" and count on Pogi chasing his teammate. He will chase the Mexican (albeit likely not alone but with some cooperation).

It subtlety different than that. Of course MVDP wants to win as much as anyone else. But he can “afford” to lose more than Pogacar. The other thing is if Del Toro does go solo on Cipressa, he’s not Teddy so the entire peloton may pull him back like has happened to a gazillion attackers on Cipressa in years past. So MVDP wouldn’t have to chase solo to win. But if MVDP happens to be right on Del Toro wheel when he goes then He would probably follow.

 

[Peyresourde]

Maybe they will fail again like always in the monuments, but Visma probably has the strongest team here. If they are not unlucky and if they don't mess up the tactics (big if), they could realistically win the race.

Even if Pogacar somehow manages to go solo on Cipressa, they (van Aert + Jorgenson + Brennan?) might also be able to reel him back in together with Ganna and MvdP on the flat in a small chase group.
Or alternatively, depending on the race situation, form a reduced peloton. But then they would have to immediately decide on a single leader after Cipressa and get all their other riders to pull all out.

The run-in to the Cipressa might be total carnage this year, especially if it is not completely dry. If there is a big crash, it could totally reshuffle the race.


Del Toro going solo is very unrealistic, even as a bait. This is only possible on the Poggio, but then you have no lead-out for Pogacar and the race won't be hard enough. Other teams will then also still have multiple riders to chase / cover moves.
If Pogacar were to 100 % work as a domestique for him, Del Toro might have a theoretical shot to win with a late attack on Via Roma from a group of 5-10 riders, but I doubt they will use that tactic.

 

[Netserk]

I don't think MVDP is the only rider in the peleton capable of follwing a pontential Pogacar attack on Cipressa. It was rather surprising last year that it was only him and Ganna following. At the end its a 4% gradient climb.

if the rider in front of you drops , its very hard to close the gap when they go all out

ideally youd like a teammate to help move you up in the group before the tight right hand bend just before the steepest part

 

[Tim Cahill]

I still think they are misreading it with their team selection sending Morgado to Nokere Koerse and Denain instead, his profile would've been excellent for this race.

 

[Poursuivant]

I think UAE are missing a trick not softening it up as much as possible on the Capo’s.

 

[Cookster15]

Just read Eddy's comments that Pogacar is best not attacking until the Poggio. But how tired the legs are after 300km includes how much effort is expended on Cipressa.

But sounds like Del Toro will be used as bait to shake off Pogacar's rivals?

Just hope no crashes.

Overwhelming favorite still has to be MVDP.

 

[Gratemans]

I have been thinking, what if (for whatever reason) UAE don't manage to be up front when they hit the Poggio.
What'll Mathieu do? I mean, this is shaping up to play out in a very, very specific way. More so than any other of the big classics. I bet Mathieu is completely focussed on that just as we are. But what if, say because of a crash or other hold up, positioning is all over the place but Mathieu finds himself up front. What's he gonna do?
Probably take off on his own.
But I would imagine he's gonne be pretty flustered, so he might hesitate.

Maybe it's precisely because we all kinda know what will happen at almost every point in the race my mind got bored and I try to imagine alternative scenarios. And I've also had this little voice in my head all week that says something weird is gonna go down saturday.

Anyway... Bring on La Primavera!

 

[Brullnux]

I still think they are misreading it with their team selection sending Morgado to Nokere Koerse and Denain instead, his profile would've been excellent for this race.

I don't think they really trust him at WT level. It is a shame, but last year's classics season didn't help his cause much.