Not hot with possible light rain at the finish. That could effect where riders choose to move. I'd expect the very bold and crazy to go a little early and try to close out on the final descent.Just read Eddy's comments that Pogacar is best not attacking until the Poggio. But how tired the legs are after 300km includes how much effort is expended on Cipressa.
But sounds like Del Toro will be used as bait to shake off Pogacar's rivals?
Just hope no crashes.
Overwhelming favorite still has to be MVDP.
Do you think they want to give Morgado a chance to win a race.I still think they are misreading it with their team selection sending Morgado to Nokere Koerse and Denain instead, his profile would've been excellent for this race.
but Gregoire didn't have to do that, and still exploded on their wheelsif the rider in front of you drops , its very hard to close the gap when they go all out
Brennan is the only Visma-rider that can win on saturday, and WVA and Jorgenson should ride 100% for him. That should mean that one of them tried to go with the attack on Cipressa and not pull a single meter in the group, while the other is working in an organized chase behind.Maybe they will fail again like always in the monuments, but Visma probably has the strongest team here. If they are not unlucky and if they don't mess up the tactics (big if), they could realistically win the race.
Even if Pogacar somehow manages to go solo on Cipressa, they (van Aert + Jorgenson + Brennan?) might also be able to reel him back in together with Ganna and MvdP on the flat in a small chase group.
Or alternatively, depending on the race situation, form a reduced peloton. But then they would have to immediately decide on a single leader after Cipressa and get all their other riders to pull all out.
Looking to his positioning nowadays, WVA will be nowhere before Cipressa starts.Brennan is the only Visma-rider that can win on saturday, and WVA and Jorgenson should ride 100% for him. That should mean that one of them tried to go with the attack on Cipressa and not pull a single meter in the group, while the other is working in an organized chase behind.
But of course WVA will be leader and between Cipressa and Poggio he’s gonna act like he’s the man to beat and pull with the two aliens.
If Wout wants to have a chance he should join the attack and then do nothing. He's too proud for that, but if he actually wants to win. Do nothing, hold the wheel, try to attack after Poggio descend with the idea that Pogi/MVDP look at each other.Brennan is the only Visma-rider that can win on saturday, and WVA and Jorgenson should ride 100% for him. That should mean that one of them tried to go with the attack on Cipressa and not pull a single meter in the group, while the other is working in an organized chase behind.
But of course WVA will be leader and between Cipressa and Poggio he’s gonna act like he’s the man to beat and pull with the two aliens.
If UAE and Pogacar just don't do anything this year, it might be a 60 rider bunch sprint. I really think the course is a bit too easy. Right now, Pogacar covers that up and everyone thinks it is a great race.After all the hype and speculation, this will be the outcome:
- Magnier
- Brennan
- Philipsen
Then how did the race not end in a bunch sprint since Pogačar was still a junior in 2016?If UAE and Pogacar just don't do anything this year, it might be a 60 rider bunch sprint. I really think the parcours is a bit too easy. Right now, Pogacar covers that and everyone thinks it is a great race.
Without Pogacar, this race will end in a big bunch sprint every year in the future (speeds and thus draft are too high now and most sprinters are quite fit) and they will have to make the race harder.
Maybe that is a possible winning tactic for Pogacar: Don't do anything for two years --> race ends in big bunch sprint --> organization adds Le Manie to make race harder --> win the race there in 3 years
The race doesn't need to be made harder. The whole fun of San Remo is that it's not the strongest rider that wins all the time. You can also win it tactically.If UAE and Pogacar just don't do anything this year, it might be a 60 rider bunch sprint. I really think the course is a bit too easy. Right now, Pogacar covers that up and everyone thinks it is a great race.
Without Pogacar, this race will end in a big bunch sprint every year in the future (speeds and thus draft are too high now and most sprinters are quite fit) and they will have to make the race harder.
Maybe that is a possible winning tactic for Pogacar: Don't do anything for two years --> race ends in big bunch sprint --> organization adds Le Manie to make race harder --> win the race there in 3 years
What I said may be a bit over the top and a late attacker could still win. But they are doing Cipressa and Poggio 3-5 kph faster now than a few years ago to just barely get seperation. If there is not concerted effort by a strong team + strong rider, I really believe that we will have a lot of big group arrivals in the future.Then how did the race not end in a bunch sprint since Pogačar was still a junior in 2016?
Right now it is not necessary, but in my opinion this race might have a problem in the future. When there are 5 bunch arrivals in a row, opinions might start to change.The race doesn't need to be made harder. The whole fun of San Remo is that it's not the strongest rider that wins all the time. You can also win it tactically.
Whats a bunch arrival? How many riders? Because I can't imagine the likes of Del Toro, Seixas, Widar, and which ever other bigger talent with a punch in the future don't want to make the race explode on Poggio, and then work together. We still have to see if an actual bigger bunch comes back.Right now it is not necessary, but in my opinion this race might have a problem in the future. When there are 5 bunch arrivals in a row, opinions might start to change.
If UAE and Pogacar just don't do anything this year, it might be a 60 rider bunch sprint
Literally none of what you are saying is backed up by real life. 2023 Poggio is the second-fastest ascent of all time, courtesy of Van der Poel and not Pogacar, and that was the most selective ascent of the century. And I don't know what race you were watching last year, because we definitely didn't have one where we 'barely got separation' on Cipressa. Finally, as has been pointed out above, we have not had a bunch sprint in 10 years, well before Pogacar became relevant to this race.But they are doing Cipressa and Poggio 3-5 kph faster now than a few years ago to just barely get seperation.
20+ riders at least.Whats a bunch arrival? How many riders? Because I can't imagine the likes of Del Toro, Seixas, Widar, and which ever other bigger talent with a punch in the future don't want to make the race explode on Poggio, and then work together. We still have to see if an actual bigger bunch comes back.
I think that's suicide. You're burning valuable riders that could be of better use in the run in to the Cipressa.I think UAE are missing a trick not softening it up as much as possible on the Capo’s.
gc riders should only affect cipressa20+ riders at least.
Maybe you are right and Pogacar has caused a paradigm change (GC rider caring about and going all-in for the first 3 monuments), but I am not sure about this yet. At the moment it is still only Pogacar doing it. Even Evenepoel has never ridden the race, who says that Seixas will for certain?
You also have to remember that Pogacar is relatively heavy for a climber (advantage for MSR) and literally has the largest relative gap in w/kg to the next best riders in the history of cycling. And even he can't drop everyone, it will be even harder for other riders in the future.
And you won't just need a strong rider, that rider will also need enough cachet to get his team to go all out for him.
To clarify again: I am talking about the future, in 5-10 years. Right now the race is fine.
Those final kms are among the most exciting of the season, though. And don't tell me there aren't lots of other races where nothing really happens until the final kilometres except a breakaway being slowly reeled in.Most boring race of the entire season, except that last 20km.
I do think that Philipsen winning in 2024 was beneficial in this regard.We need some large group sprints once in a while. We are well overdue one. The sprinters need to be able to believe they can also win, otherwise they'll just find something else to do on this particular Saturday in March. A bit like MVDP with Strade Bianche. Then the race loses what's so great about it.
The moment they add Pompeiana is the moment the pitchfork and torches will come out in my house
May I once again kindly ask you to stup bullying poor Red RickIt's good to have some changes from time to time! No monument route is constant every year.
Yeah, torches and fireworks make sense as celebration of Teddy's victory. Rick as Pogi's closet fan confirmed.
