Milan San Remo, March 21, 2026, 298 km monument

[YavorD]

If he's launched properly, I can see him get to 8:45. But I can also see a lot of other riders do better than last year, and do better than you 9:25 target.

Well, if he goes 8.45, I'm looking at 9.15 (30-ish seconds gap on top of Cipressa)

 

[AlfaLum]

Van Aert will probably pull for Pogacar and van der Poel on the flat.

 

[mikks]

If he's launched properly, I can see him get to 8:45. But I can also see a lot of other riders do better than last year, and do better than you 9:25 target.

Last year, three leaders had about a 30-second advantage over a chasing group of around 20 at the top of the Cipressa.

In the end, these situations depend on the specific circumstances.
Is there a well-defined chase group that can start working immediately? Or are riders scattered into smaller groups, meaning it takes time for an organized chase to form? Whether domestiques and team leaders reach the top together and can start chasing right away, or whether the leaders(domestiques) come over the top first and then have to wait for their domestiques(leaders) to rejoin before the chase can begin.


Many different scenarios are possible. Some favor the chasers, while others favor the leader or leading group. Given that UAE used the Cipressa tactic last year and came close to making it work, and since there does not seem to be any clearly better alternative, I would expect them to try it again.

 

[hayneplane]

Last year, three leaders had about a 30-second advantage over a chasing group of around 20 at the top of the Cipressa.

In the end, these situations depend on the specific circumstances.
Is there a well-defined chase group that can start working immediately? Or are riders scattered into smaller groups, meaning it takes time for an organized chase to form? Whether domestiques and team leaders reach the top together and can start chasing right away, or whether the leaders(domestiques) come over the top first and then have to wait for their domestiques(leaders) to rejoin before the chase can begin.


Many different scenarios are possible. Some favor the chasers, while others favor the leader or leading group. Given that UAE used the Cipressa tactic last year and came close to making it work, and since there does not seem to be any clearly better alternative, I would expect them to try it again.

This is key. If the most prominent chasers try to battle on in 1s and 2s they likely lose more time. Retreating back to a pack with 2/3 domestiques per team probably gives the best chance of using the flat to the Poggio to bring the gap down close enough to bridge before the finish.

It could almost be described as being brave enough to be a coward as it would require some honesty to admit you need help and not try to fix it on your own.

 

[Red Rick]

Anyone have data of the exact wind conditions last year?

 

[Berniece]

Anyone have data of the exact wind conditions last year?

This is for Cipressa

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[Krzysztof_O]

Imagine Teddy attacks from the gun and does a 300 km winning solo, the longest possible. Comments after the race:
Tadej: Wind and triple porridge helped me today. I dedicate this victory to my teammates, who had a party yesterday so I didn't want to tire them even more.
Mauro: Nothing is impossible for Tadej, who's the greatest athlete in history. Yes, beer was his fuel during his early Tour wins but unfortunately for his rivals he stopped drinking it.
Roger: I would've never let Tadej go and Eddy would've beaten him by an hour!

 

[canina82]

People are thinking about how Pogacar could actually win this against MVDP. Having a second target to focus on, would tire MVDP. But sure, just go ahead and try to go hard on Cipressa and Poggio again and see if you can drop MVDP. No tactics, just go fast. It's the only thing Pogacar can do anyway.

I just can't understand why those who claim Del Toro can be a threat to MVP, are also the same who say Del Toro is overrated and can't handle long one day races.
And let's not pretend Del Toro can break an entire peloton where only MVP and Pogacar are with him. It's just unrealistic.

 

[canina82]

Milan Sanremo is literally the lowest energy output monument by far.

It's still 300 km and more than 6 hours on the saddle. CSS wasn't that hard and he still got dropped by Ciccone.

 

[Berniece]

I just can't understand why those who claim Del Toro can be a threat to MVP, are also the same who say Del Toro is overrated and can't handle long one day races.
And let's not pretend Del Toro can break an entire peloton where only MVP and Pogacar are with him. It's just unrealistic.

It's the idea of Del Toro being able to drop riders in the peloton and MVDP. Do you remember how Pogacar got destroyed during TDF 2022? Just do that, where Roglic is Del Toro

 

[Extinction]

I think you must use Del Toro wisely. He's at a higher level with respect to last season at this time, so a good strategy would be for him to light it up on the Cipressa and then do damage control. If others are on the ropes, then Pog goes. If a good gap is already established, then Pog might want to keep his powder dry till the Poggia. Having Del Toro in a break, especially if there is a headwind leading up to the Poggio, Pog then benefits from his presence.

 

[canina82]

It's the idea of Del Toro being able to drop riders in the peloton and MVDP. Do you remember how Pogacar got destroyed during TDF 2022? Just do that, where Roglic is Del Toro

So you are comparing a high mountain stage with MSR? Specially when selection is way earlier and much evident in a climb like Galibier.

 

[Berniece]

So you are comparing a high mountain stage with MSR? Specially when selection is way early and much evident in a climb like Galibier.

I'm comparing the possibility of playing 2 against 1. Pogacar/Del Toro together shouldn't have an issue dropping most riders on Cipressa which Pogi proved last year. Once that's done you can do attacks one by one.

When Narvaez was done with his pull the peloton was knackered. Pogacar attacked and there was only MVDP and Ganna left. Meaning that I do believe that if Christen/Mcnulty are done, maybe there's also barely anyone left, and Del Toro/Pogacar can attack one by one. Maybe I'm wrong and it's not selective enough with the current UAE line up

 

[jono]

I'm comparing the possibility of playing 2 against 1. Pogacar/Del Toro together shouldn't have an issue dropping most riders on Cipressa which Pogi proved last year. Once that's done you can do attacks one by one.

When Narvaez was done with his pull the peloton was knackered. Pogacar attacked and there was only MVDP and Ganna left. Meaning that I do believe that if Christen/Mcnulty are done, maybe there's also barely anyone left, and Del Toro/Pogacar can attack one by one. Maybe I'm wrong and it's not selective enough with the current UAE line up

I have a hard time seeing a group getting clear on Cipressa that somehow includes Del Toro but not at least a half dozen others along with Pog, Ganna and MVDP.

 

[Berniece]

I have a hard time seeing a group getting clear on Cipressa that somehow includes Del Toro but not at least a half dozen others along with Pog, Ganna and MVDP.

Yeah maybe I'm overestimating how hard Cipressa is

 

[canina82]

I'm comparing the possibility of playing 2 against 1. Pogacar/Del Toro together shouldn't have an issue dropping most riders on Cipressa which Pogi proved last year. Once that's done you can do attacks one by one.

When Narvaez was done with his pull the peloton was knackered. Pogacar attacked and there was only MVDP and Ganna left. Meaning that I do believe that if Christen/Mcnulty are done, maybe there's also barely anyone left, and Del Toro/Pogacar can attack one by one. Maybe I'm wrong and it's not selective enough with the current UAE line up

1 - It wasn't a simple 2x1. They were far from the finish line with Wout in the break. Since UAE riders were far, Pogacar could not let Roglic gain 4 or 5 minutes (a scenario similar to Yates in Finestre).

2 - There were more than 20 riders before Pogacar's attack (after a 90" pull from Narvaez). Christen and Mcnulty aren't as good as Narvaez.

What bothers me is how Del Toro is/was viewed as overrated but now he is a rider that can be almost on Pogacar and MVP's level in a long classic.
But this is something I'm already used. This is not new depite being comical. Almost like Slovenian with Roglic and Pogacar even if Roglic was nowhere near the necessary level to be a world champion. It's the same thing with Del Toro unless his endurance has improved a lot this year.

 

[canina82]

What people don't seem to realise is that even if Pogacar does drop MVDP and goes solo on Cipressa, he still needs a couple of other factors to align for him.
For example, I do believe that having a large group within 30 seconds of Pogacar is possible (it would require all of them to climb Cipressa 9.25-ish, which I find likely). And if this group has 4-5-6 domestiques, what is he gonna do on the flat?

4 or 5 domestiques it's impossible. There is no team able to have 5 riders in a group just 30" behind.

 

[Berniece]

2 - There were more than 20 riders before Pogacar's attack (after a 90" pull from Narvaez). Christen and Mcnulty aren't as good as Narvaez.

What bothers me is how Del Toro is/was viewed as overrated but now he is a rider that can be almost on Pogacar and MVP's level in a long classic.
But this is something I'm already used. This is not new depite being comical. Almost like Slovenian with Roglic and Pogacar even if Roglic was nowhere near the necessary level to be a world champion. It's the same thing with Del Toro unless his endurance has improved a lot this year.

When Narvaez was done there was a very very long lint of riders. Sure. But the rider in position 20 didn't really have a ***.

I still think Del Toro is overrated, doesn't mean he can't be used as bait.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

4 or 5 domestiques it's impossible. There is no team able to have 5 riders in a group just 30" behind.

5 domestiques in total, not on one team
Anyway, I doubt it will be that way, because it will take some time with everyone waiting until they get organised and it would be 45/50 seconds already then.

 

[canina82]

I have a hard time seeing a group getting clear on Cipressa that somehow includes Del Toro but not at least a half dozen others along with Pog, Ganna and MVDP.

Exactly this. Cipressa is a 4% climb (with almost zero climbs before). For some reason MVP can follow Pogacar.
What Pogacar did last year is something no one in the peloton can do (not remotely close imo). If Del Toro attacks, I have a hard time to not see riders like Wout, Pidcock, Pelli, Matteo there.

 

[jono]

When Narvaez was done there was a very very long lint of riders. Sure. But the rider in position 20 didn't really have a ***.

I still think Del Toro is overrated, doesn't mean he can't be used as bait.

The point is, if they are going to line out the group this year, who will be doing the lining out besides Del Toro? If not him, can they string out the group enough such that the number of riders that get away with Pog and presumably Del Toro is less than 10 or 12?

 

[Extinction]

I

I have a hard time seeing a group getting clear on Cipressa that somehow includes Del Toro but not at least a half dozen others along with Pog, Ganna and MVDP.

I don't see a group of 7 riders clear after the Cipressa, with Del Toro in it, as a problem. For Pog it will rather be and asset.

 

[Escarabajo]

It is hard to see how Pogacar drops MvdP in those 2 hills. Very hard for Pogi to win unless there are external issues affecting MvdP. Pogi can win in a year when the organizers add a hard climb before the finish.

 

[Escarabajo]

I think people put too much weight on del Toro, he is amazing but he is still mortal. He will have a host of people following him that can keep up on the relatively shallow slopes.

Even if Pog goes over cipressa solo without mvdp he is stuffed as the group will catch him. He needs strong riders (like mvdp and ganna) to pull with but then they will nuke him in the sprint.

Can't wait, the fact Pog wants this so bad but it does not suit him makes it an amazing watch as he tries inhuman things to try make it work.

Not only mortal but his positioning is horrendous. If he doesn't fix that He is no help to pogi.

 

[Lequack]

Now that Roglic is also racing, he can just attack while the favorites are marking each other. Like Nibali.