Future riders to win a monument?

[Billie]

matteo tossato

 

[Bushman]

Re:

I guess we all agree Alaphilippe is the most likely one, thanks in part to his young age and because it seems likely he can really fight for victory at LBL for years to come.

GVA could win PR and Flanders, although he will likely never be outright favourite for either race. Same for Vanmarcke, who has the added bonus of being a bit younger.

What's the case for Matthews? MSR? LBL? Both less likely than either one of GVA or Vanmarcke winning PR or Flanders imo.

GVA could be a strong outsider in LBL as well with the way it has been ridden the last couple of years.

 

[saganftw]

with the way the ardennes are done these days you can name probably 20 potential winners in LBL alone on top of usual suspects - someone like Barguil,Zakarin,Bardet...and one those attacks will land Wellens a victory for sure

same goes for MSR,any decent sprinter who is not a complete donkey in hills can win it on a good day

Ronde and PR are much more selective and i guess another lucky strike like this years PR wont happen in a long time,Lombardia is tough because its at the end of a season but its same as LBL - good climber can win it,the only question is if all those "im happy with 6th overall in GT" guys bother to show up

but to pick one that is almost 100% sure to win is alaphilippe

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

with the way the ardennes are done these days you can name probably 20 potential winners in LBL alone on top of usual suspects - someone like Barguil,Zakarin,Bardet...and one those attacks will land Wellens a victory for sure

same goes for MSR,any decent sprinter who is not a complete donkey in hills can win it on a good day

Ronde and PR are much more selective and i guess another lucky strike like this years PR wont happen in a long time,Lombardia is tough because its at the end of a season but its same as LBL - good climber can win it,the only question is if all those "im happy with 6th overall in GT" guys bother to show up

but to pick one that is almost 100% sure to win is alaphilippe

Lombardia's 2015 course is ridiculously tough, the mother of all climbers' classics. Add to that an insaenly strong Astana team that just shredded everyone, everyone , on the Muro then you have yourself a fun race. The Civiglio was just attack after attack and the last climb we were all clock-watching to see if Nibali could hang on. If this year's finishes in the same way as 2014, then puncheurs have a chance.

 

[Cannibal72]

Astounded Kwiatkowski hasn't been mentioned yet. On form, he has the potential to win LBL, RVV, and MSR, and surely he'll take at least one of those. I really think the next two seasons are GVA's only chances for a monument, before he starts declining and Stuyven/Benoot/etc. mature fully, and I can only really see him winning De Ronde (although he's got a chance in San Remo). Perfectly possible he'll win RVV next year (Sagan/Vanmarcke/Quick Step/Sky are good, but not overwhelming favourites). Surely Alaphillipe will wn LBL at some point, and I really think Benoot could win that and RVV, and become the next great Belgian classics guy. Don't rate Matthews much personally, but OGE are strong enough to control MSR for him; Gaviria's a bigger talent though. However, I can't see past Sep for the next rider to win his first monument; he's a magnificent rider for Roubaix.

 

[RedheadDane]

Re:

matteo tossato

Suppose in a couple of years Tossato's grandson, Matteo Tossato Jr. could win a monument.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Costa with more votes than Stannard and Rowe

 

[ciranda]

So embarrassing when people forget about British hegemony.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Costa won the Firenze worlds, so he can definitely win LBL or Lombardia, IMO.
Besides those in the poll, Kwiatkowski, Gaviria and Rosa are riders I see as possible winners. They are all rather young too.
I also voted for GVA, Stybar, Alaphilippe, Bouhanni (MSR someday surely) and Matthews

 

[SeriousSam]

Astounded Kwiatkowski hasn't been mentioned yet.

True. He's too talented not to eventually win one, and he's already won major races and is still young.

 

[dlwssonic]

Re:

Costa with more votes than Stannard and Rowe

Do you even know who's Rui Costa or do you only care about British riders.

World champion not too far back ? Could win LBL or Lombardy in the future

 

[Jancouver]

Edvald Boasson Hagen - 10% Chance
Greg Van Avermaet - 20%
Ian Stannard - 10%
Julian Alaphilippe - 40%
Luke Rowe - 10%
Michael Matthews - 20%
Nacer Bouhanni 40%
Rui Costa - 10%
Sep Vanmarcke - 0%
Zdenek Stybar - 20%

 

[gunara]

Costa with more votes than Stannard and Rowe

Seriously you complain? Rowe is a good rider, but to think he worth more votes than Rui Costa.....only his passport can explain. It helps Stannard too, of course.

 

[greenedge]

Senechal, Valgren and Bystrom are some other names who could be considered.

 

[Red Rick]

I can't wrap my head around why Vanmarcke is rated so low?

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re:

I can't wrap my head around why Vanmarcke is rated so low?

He would definitely deserve to win Flanders or Roubaix. I think he needs a stronger team. Just buying one super domestique would make a difference. I have to admit Lotto Nl did well in P-R. He's always strong, but he has a hard time finishing it. If he keeps trying he might still pull it off. I voted for him. He only turns 28 in July, so he should be around for many more years.

And what about Petr Vakoc? He had a strong win in the Brabantse Pijl and was fifth in the Strade Bianche. Which classic would suit him best?

 

[StryderHells]

Re: Re:

I can't wrap my head around why Vanmarcke is rated so low?

He would definitely deserve to win Flanders or Roubaix. I think he needs a stronger team. Just buying one super domestique would make a difference. I have to admit Lotto Nl did well in P-R. He's always strong, but he has a hard time finishing it. If he keeps trying he might still pull it off. (I voted for him.)

And what about Petr Vakoc? He had a strong win in the Brabantse Pijl and was fifth in the Strade Bianche. Which classic would suit him best?

Amstel would be the classic that would suit him best but if we are talking Monuments then possibly L-B-L in a few years or MSR in a late attack

Oh and I also voted for Sep, I think he will bag Flanders or Roubaix before his career ends

 

[saganftw]

vanmarcke isnt rated low,he is just one of them guys who cant get it done - its always something,a fall,a puncture

on paper he was by far the strongest PR rider in the final group and couldnt get it done,he has black cloud over his head everytime he suits up for a monument - tho i suspect he will win one in similar fashion to hayman,when nobody expects anything from him

kwiatkowski seems like a guy who at the start of the season picks couple of races he wins in impressive fashion at the expense of being useless for the rest 90% he participates in and spends summer carrying water for geraint thomas - hopefully he will pick LBL in the future to include in those couple

 

[barmaher]

I would say that only Vanmarcke (maybe) and Alaphilippe are likely to win a monument. Here are my percentage chances for the riders listed:

EBH 20% (He would probably have a 20/1 chance in PR and a 33/1 chance in RVV and MSR for the next few years. Discount by chances of injury / loss of form)
GVA 25% (I think RVV is his only good chance (10/1 or so, he has an outside chance in others)
Stannard 15% (Harmed by his lack of a sprint of climbing legs. PR his best shot)
Alaphillipe 50% (Young, can climb and decent sprint)
Rowe 10% (Sure he has a chance, but not much to suggest he is a winner in waiting)
Matthews 25% (MSR is usually a crap shoot. He needs to learn to climb or cobble better if he is to have a chance in the other four monuments).
Bouhanni 20% (Similar comments to Matthews. He will always have a chance in MSR, but not as versatile as the Aussie).
Costa 10% (He has a chance, but lots more riders have better chances in every monument he starts),
Vanmarcke 40% (Will likely be favourite or second favourite in PR and RVV for the next few years. He has had a bit of bad luck, too).
Stybar 15% (I think this dude is a jack of all trades and a master of none. Actually he is a rider I just can't work out.

Gaviria has a chance of an MSR.

 

[Anderis]

Why people claim Vanmarcke needs stronger team to win a monument? LottoNL is consistently very decent in those, especially in Roubaix. I remember one Roubaix (was it 2014?) where they had more men in the reduced peloton than any other team. I've never seen him isolated when other leaders had multiple riders to protect them, and later, when the best attack, it also doesn't matter because everybody is riding for themselves.

It's not the fault of his team that he couldn't outsprint Cancellara in a small group sprint or to drop 2nd rate favourites from little group on one of the last cobbled sectors and bring it home. It's not like people attack him all the way because he is a good sprinter and he needs team-mates to bring them back. His team did decent or good job in pretty much every cobbled monument in the last 3 or 4 years and it's that final little bit he lacked himself that costed him 2 or 3 wins in the last couple of years.

 

[The Hegelian]

Re:

Gaviria's victorious ride will be powered by hype!

Yep. 10th in Dwars Door Vlaanderen tells me that he is way ahead of those has beens GVA and Vanmarcke for those cobbled monuments.

Good'ish odds to win the MSR lottery at some point though...

 

[King Boonen]

Warren Barguil should be listed above nearly all of those riders.

 

[saganftw]

Re:

Warren Barguil should be listed above nearly all of those riders.

im waiting for breakthrough Barguil season for like 3 years now?

 

[May0maniac]

Re: Re:

Warren Barguil should be listed above nearly all of those riders.

im waiting for breakthrough Barguil season for like 3 years now?

He had a bad 2015 (probably because of the knee fracture on stage 10 of the Tour), but other than that his progression was fine, 2 stage wins in his first gt and top 10 on gc in his 2nd one in 2014.

 

[King Boonen]

Re: Re:

Warren Barguil should be listed above nearly all of those riders.

im waiting for breakthrough Barguil season for like 3 years now?

Got run over in Mallorca, but recovered to finish 9th in FW and 6th in LBL, beating many on this list and all the pre-race favourites at LBL. I'd say that's a brilliant result considering what happened which should put him well above several on this list.