Future riders to win a monument?

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re:

I can't wrap my head around why Vanmarcke is rated so low?

Because he is such a typical anti winner. Like Boogerd in the past, always one of the strongest but always 2nd-5th. I rate Van Avermaet in the same category btw.

 

[GP Blanco]

Re: Re:

I can't wrap my head around why Vanmarcke is rated so low?

Because he is such a typical anti winner. Like Boogerd in the past, always one of the strongest but always 2nd-5th. I rate Van Avermaet in the same category btw.

Until last year I would agree with you but Van Avermaet showed from last year's TdF until his injury this year he knows how to win.

 

[Breh]

Re: Re:

I can't wrap my head around why Vanmarcke is rated so low?

Because he is such a typical anti winner. Like Boogerd in the past, always one of the strongest but always 2nd-5th. I rate Van Avermaet in the same category btw.

2stages in the TdF last year, Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, Tirreno Adriatico. He's been winning quite some interesting races.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

Costa with more votes than Stannard and Rowe

Do you even know who's Rui Costa or do you only care about British riders.

World champion not too far back ? Could win LBL or Lombardy in the future

Yes I do know who Rui Costa is - a 29 year old who seemingly has his best days behind him. Ok, he's had good results in the past at Lombardy and LBL, but like I said, he seems to be a notch below his 2013 form. Yeah, he may have finished on the podium of LBL this year, but was he anywhere near being one of the strongest 3 riders?

 

[SafeBet]

Re: Re:

Yes I do know who Rui Costa is - a 29 year old who seemingly has his best days behind him. Ok, he's had good results in the past at Lombardy and LBL, but like I said, he seems to be a notch below his 2013 form. Yeah, he may have finished on the podium of LBL this year, but was he anywhere near being one of the strongest 3 riders?

He sure was one of the few who could follow Albasini.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

Yes I do know who Rui Costa is - a 29 year old who seemingly has his best days behind him. Ok, he's had good results in the past at Lombardy and LBL, but like I said, he seems to be a notch below his 2013 form. Yeah, he may have finished on the podium of LBL this year, but was he anywhere near being one of the strongest 3 riders?

He sure was one of the few who could follow Albasini.

And still failed to win despite completely wheelsucking Albasini. Not complaining about him being clever and conserving his energy, complaining about him being unable to finish higher than 3rd after conserving this energy

 

[portugal11]

Re: Re:

Yes I do know who Rui Costa is - a 29 year old who seemingly has his best days behind him. Ok, he's had good results in the past at Lombardy and LBL, but like I said, he seems to be a notch below his 2013 form. Yeah, he may have finished on the podium of LBL this year, but was he anywhere near being one of the strongest 3 riders?

He sure was one of the few who could follow Albasini.

And still failed to win despite completely wheelsucking Albasini. Not complaining about him being clever and conserving his energy, complaining about him being unable to finish higher than 3rd after conserving this energy

Stannard and rowe will never win a monument, they don't have the legs for that, the only way is winning by numbers, sky could have 3 or 4 guys in the last 30 km and obe of them attack and no one follow. Rui costa already has a WC in his pocket and very top 10 at monuments

 

[TMP402]

Re: Re:

Yes I do know who Rui Costa is - a 29 year old who seemingly has his best days behind him. Ok, he's had good results in the past at Lombardy and LBL, but like I said, he seems to be a notch below his 2013 form. Yeah, he may have finished on the podium of LBL this year, but was he anywhere near being one of the strongest 3 riders?

He sure was one of the few who could follow Albasini.

And still failed to win despite completely wheelsucking Albasini. Not complaining about him being clever and conserving his energy, complaining about him being unable to finish higher than 3rd after conserving this energy

Stannard and rowe will never win a monument, they don't have the legs for that, the only way is winning by numbers, sky could have 3 or 4 guys in the last 30 km and obe of them attack and no one follow. Rui costa already has a WC in his pocket and very top 10 at monuments

Rowe can sprint, though. If he is in a group without Sagan, Degenkolb or Kristoff I would make him favourite in the sprint.

 

[Billie]

Vanmarcke, Alaphilippe and Kwiatkowski are first row in the line to become monument winners. Not sure why Kwiatkowski isn't on the list (can't be because he won the worlds cause so did Costa). I think Kwiatkowski is more likely than all on this list to win a monument. One time during a monument (whether it's MSR, Ronde, LBL or Lombardia) he'll have this incredibly strong day where no one can beat him.

Stybar, GVA and Costa are closest to them but not all a bit older already. They'll surely will come close in the future.

For EBH, Stannard, Rowe everything will have to fall perfectly in line. I think they missed their biggest chance already in Roubaix this year. All three.

Matthews and Bouhanni can only win one monument: San Remo. But Goss, Ciolek, Degenkolb, Kristoff, Demare have won 5 of the last 6 editions and all these riders have very similar skills so it wouldn't only make sense for Matthews and Bouhanni to win the sprint on the Via Roma once.

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

Costa with more votes than Stannard and Rowe

Do you even know who's Rui Costa or do you only care about British riders.

World champion not too far back ? Could win LBL or Lombardy in the future

Yes I do know who Rui Costa is - a 29 year old who seemingly has his best days behind him. Ok, he's had good results in the past at Lombardy and LBL, but like I said, he seems to be a notch below his 2013 form. Yeah, he may have finished on the podium of LBL this year, but was he anywhere near being one of the strongest 3 riders?

He was exactly the third strongest rider in LBL, and that's his best placement in that race in his whole career, so I wouldn't say his best days are behind him. He's 29, not 39!

Back to main topic, future monument winner is Carlos "La Ronca" Betancur!

 

[yaco]

Why people claim Vanmarcke needs stronger team to win a monument? LottoNL is consistently very decent in those, especially in Roubaix. I remember one Roubaix (was it 2014?) where they had more men in the reduced peloton than any other team. I've never seen him isolated when other leaders had multiple riders to protect them, and later, when the best attack, it also doesn't matter because everybody is riding for themselves.

It's not the fault of his team that he couldn't outsprint Cancellara in a small group sprint or to drop 2nd rate favourites from little group on one of the last cobbled sectors and bring it home. It's not like people attack him all the way because he is a good sprinter and he needs team-mates to bring them back. His team did decent or good job in pretty much every cobbled monument in the last 3 or 4 years and it's that final little bit he lacked himself that costed him 2 or 3 wins in the last couple of years.

100% correct with your post. Vanmarcke gets more than enough support from LottoNL in the big races.

 

[Cannibal72]

Re:

I would say that only Vanmarcke (maybe) and Alaphilippe are likely to win a monument. Here are my percentage chances for the riders listed:

EBH 20% (He would probably have a 20/1 chance in PR and a 33/1 chance in RVV and MSR for the next few years. Discount by chances of injury / loss of form)
GVA 25% (I think RVV is his only good chance (10/1 or so, he has an outside chance in others)
Stannard 15% (<b>Harmed by his lack of a sprint </b> of climbing legs. PR his best shot)
Alaphillipe 50% (Young, can climb and decent sprint)
Rowe 10% (Sure he has a chance, but not much to suggest he is a winner in waiting)
Matthews 25% (MSR is usually a crap shoot. He needs to learn to climb or cobble better if he is to have a chance in the other four monuments).
Bouhanni 20% (Similar comments to Matthews. He will always have a chance in MSR, but not as versatile as the Aussie).
Costa 10% (He has a chance, but lots more riders have better chances in every monument he starts),
Vanmarcke 40% (Will likely be favourite or second favourite in PR and RVV for the next few years. He has had a bit of bad luck, too).
Stybar 15% (I think this dude is a jack of all trades and a master of none. Actually he is a rider I just can't work out.

Gaviria has a chance of an MSR.

While I can't see Stannard winning any other monument than P-R, I think GVA and Terpstra - neither of whom are terrible sprinters - would be pretty surprised to learn that the winner of Omloop in a two-up sprint twice can't sprint.

 

[TMP402]

Re: Re:

I would say that only Vanmarcke (maybe) and Alaphilippe are likely to win a monument. Here are my percentage chances for the riders listed:

EBH 20% (He would probably have a 20/1 chance in PR and a 33/1 chance in RVV and MSR for the next few years. Discount by chances of injury / loss of form)
GVA 25% (I think RVV is his only good chance (10/1 or so, he has an outside chance in others)
Stannard 15% (<b>Harmed by his lack of a sprint </b> of climbing legs. PR his best shot)
Alaphillipe 50% (Young, can climb and decent sprint)
Rowe 10% (Sure he has a chance, but not much to suggest he is a winner in waiting)
Matthews 25% (MSR is usually a crap shoot. He needs to learn to climb or cobble better if he is to have a chance in the other four monuments).
Bouhanni 20% (Similar comments to Matthews. He will always have a chance in MSR, but not as versatile as the Aussie).
Costa 10% (He has a chance, but lots more riders have better chances in every monument he starts),
Vanmarcke 40% (Will likely be favourite or second favourite in PR and RVV for the next few years. He has had a bit of bad luck, too).
Stybar 15% (I think this dude is a jack of all trades and a master of none. Actually he is a rider I just can't work out.

Gaviria has a chance of an MSR.

While I can't see Stannard winning any other monument than P-R, I think GVA and Terpstra - neither of whom are terrible sprinters - would be pretty surprised to learn that the winner of Omloop in a two-up sprint twice can't sprint.

Not only that but Stannard's annual MSR attack could either mean a solo victory one year, or since he likes bad weather, for him to be the best sprinter in a small group.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Re:

Alaphilippe and Gaviria seem to be the easy pick. For someone more of anoutsider, I pick Barguil. While Wellens will get it right at least once, and Stuyven, too.

Which one do you see Wellens win? He only has a shot when he tries to break away imo. It "could" happen, but ultimately, i just don't see him pull it off any other way. And getting away in a break and holding off is just something that doesn't happen too often anymore. He just doesn't have the talent to beat other favorites one on one.

Van Marcke, Van Avermaet, Benoot and maybe Stuyven... sure. Van Marcke will win PR at least once. He's only 27 and it's a race you can still win when you're 35. Benoot is a class above Wellens imo, and much more versatile (not to mention younger).

 

[Bushman]

Betancur.

Not even kidding

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

Yes I do know who Rui Costa is - a 29 year old who seemingly has his best days behind him. Ok, he's had good results in the past at Lombardy and LBL, but like I said, he seems to be a notch below his 2013 form. Yeah, he may have finished on the podium of LBL this year, but was he anywhere near being one of the strongest 3 riders?

He sure was one of the few who could follow Albasini.

And still failed to win despite completely wheelsucking Albasini. Not complaining about him being clever and conserving his energy, complaining about him being unable to finish higher than 3rd after conserving this energy

Stannard and rowe will never win a monument, they don't have the legs for that, the only way is winning by numbers, sky could have 3 or 4 guys in the last 30 km and obe of them attack and no one follow. Rui costa already has a WC in his pocket and very top 10 at monuments

Stannard really could have won this year's PR if he played it slightly better tactically. But the main point is Stannard is still improving, while Costa appears to be past his best. I'm not sure Stannard will win a monument, but my point is he's more likely to than costa

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re: Re:

I can't wrap my head around why Vanmarcke is rated so low?

Because he is such a typical anti winner. Like Boogerd in the past, always one of the strongest but always 2nd-5th. I rate Van Avermaet in the same category btw.

2stages in the TdF last year, Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, Tirreno Adriatico. He's been winning quite some interesting races.

Boogerd also won 2 tour stages, Paris Nice and Amstel Gold Race.

Interesting races, but not a monument.
This is why I say, Van Avermaet won't win a monument, he'll get too nervous and f.ck up even if he is by far the strongest