Garmin-Cervelo TdF

[Zinoviev Letter]

Well, going from being good at shorter climbs to being able to handle high mountains is a fairly minimal change I would say. I see no reason why he couldn't develop that way.

As of yet his best effort on tough mountains is probably his 9th place on Zoncolan this year.

I don't think that the issue regarding Martin's prospects in Grand Tours is his climbing at all. He has demonstrated that he's very good indeed on shorter climbs, and top 10 over the Zoncolan is pretty damn strong evidence that he can handle higher mountains.

The real issue is recovery and consistency. He hasn't yet demonstrated the ability to go out and grind his way up the climbs with the elite day after day. Whether he will ever demonstrate that ability remains to be seen.

 

[ingsve]

I don't think that the issue regarding Martin's prospects in Grand Tours is his climbing at all. He has demonstrated that he's very good indeed on shorter climbs, and top 10 over the Zoncolan is pretty damn strong evidence that he can handle higher mountains.

The real issue is recovery and consistency. He hasn't yet demonstrated the ability to go out and grind his way up the climbs with the elite day after day. Whether he will ever demonstrate that ability remains to be seen.

Ya, that's the other main factor in GCs. Usually though consistency comes with age and it's no surprise at all that a 24 year old can be very inconsistent. I also think it's quite possible for somewhat inconsistent riders to string together a good overall race once in a while so the step is probably quite small in this aspect well. As an example Tom Danielson who has mananged two vuelta top 10s is considered by most here to be highly inconsistent most of the time and a guy like Moncoutie is also inconsistent depending on his mood but he has also managed top 10s.

 

[The Hitch]

As of yet his best effort on tough mountains is probably his 9th place on Zoncolan this year.

TDP 2010

Where champions are made.

 

[shouldawouldacoulda]

This roster is a disaster for the Tour. Vande Velde is not going to contend for the GC and everyone else on that roster has their best years behind them.

Also, bifurcating a Tour strategy between the green jersey (Thor and Farrar) and the GC (VandeVelde) is a reckless strategy. No team I know of does both - at least not successfully.

Vaughters is desperate for a Tour de France stage win or at least something more than just "being there." For all the money Garmin has dumped into this team, its results in the Tour de France are non-existent.

there is some truth to this.. but overall I think you are being a bit harsh (on your historic analysis).

Garmin (and previously, Slipstream) have actually done really well to bring the GC 'surprise' to every Tour they've done. Sure, there's no wins and no GC Podiums but you can't discount the amount of publicity the team has generated by having the 'surprise of the tour' -> (CVV, Wiggins, Hesjedal).

For hardcore bike fans, just showing up and being good isn't enough. But for Versus and US media in general it is. And that is where they earn their keep with Garmin.

That said. It is more difficult to have a tour strategy built around 'bringing the surprise to the race' than it is to play across both the green and yellow classifications. So you're points -though harshly delivered - are really really valid.

Who knows what the hell they are going to do? Vaughters has always had a hard-on for the GC and time trialing. But bringing in Hushovd, Haussler, Lancaster etc. certainly - on paper - has strengthened their finishing game. But you're right that none of these guys are guaranteed winners in the Tour.

Its a tough call. The whole merger for me has created a 'gong show' waiting to happen. I think the team is going to struggle to create any kind of spirit and cohesion next year at the tour... I think there are just going to be a lot of really p1ssed off guys wearing black, white, blue and argyle. Any way you slice it, some really talented and deserving guys are going to be benched for the Tour.

I think they'll have a fantastic classic season - then they'll lose the plot in the tour.

In 2011 a lot of p1ssed off guys will leave the team as a fall out of the Tour mess.

 

[Eric8-A]

I forget where I read this, but whoever put it up is completely right. Garmin's squad is made up pretty much sprinters and time trialists and I agree. I got no idea what strategy they have for signing riders, but it's not a really good one in my opinion. Look at HTC, the new riders they sign all turn out to be great riders. Tee Jay caught my eyes when he places second to Contador in the Dauphine prologue, then he was really good in the first week, week and a half of the Vuelta. Peter Velits gave them their first GT podium and won the final TT which also turned out to be his first TT win. So, it seems HTC is doing something right. They just signed Danny Pate who rode with Garmin pretty much since it started and I won't be shocked if he begins showing results far greater than his 4 years at Garmin. Also Caleb Fairly who was supposed to ride with Garmin in 2011 but I don't know what happened. I also read somewhere that the reason the guys at HTC are so good because they're on dope. I found this pretty funny. But back to Garmin, it's clear they don't have any prolific winners and the wins they get are in races considered "small races".

I think Garmin has tried turning into a copy of HTC where they mainly focus on their sprinter (Tyler Farrar).

 

[NickBVK]

Haussler said he doesn't want to go for sprints anymore however that doesn't rule him out as part of a very good leadout train/going for more 'classic' days

 

[TheDude]

So, if Pate shows results, does this have to move to the Clinic?

 

[Maxiton]

So, if Pate shows results, does this have to move to the Clinic?

I don't know Pate personally, but from what I understand he's probably the last rider you'd have to be concerned about in that regard (i.e., the Clinic, not the results).

As far as their Tour goals and roster go, that's a tough call, but it seems a safe bet to think they'll go for stage wins and high ranking in the GC; and maybe, possibly, the green jersey. It's hard to see them doing much more than that and besides, what's left other than a podium finish - which has an outside chance of happening.

I think it's premature to speculate about the roster. Let's see how their early season shapes up.

 

[Ferminal]

So, if Pate shows results, does this have to move to the Clinic?

I thought they iced Danny?

 

[Kwibus]

I don't think that the issue regarding Martin's prospects in Grand Tours is his climbing at all. He has demonstrated that he's very good indeed on shorter climbs, and top 10 over the Zoncolan is pretty damn strong evidence that he can handle higher mountains.

The real issue is recovery and consistency. He hasn't yet demonstrated the ability to go out and grind his way up the climbs with the elite day after day. Whether he will ever demonstrate that ability remains to be seen.

Yeh they have no reason to send Martin to the Tour yet. Let him ride another Giro or Vuelta. Last year he said he had trouble in the spring with breathing so the 9th spot on the Zoncolan is pretty good. He has surgery for this problem so normally it should be better in 2011.

 

[Ferminal]

Yeh they have no reason to send Martin to the Tour yet. Let him ride another Giro or Vuelta. Last year he said he had trouble in the spring with breathing so the 9th spot on the Zoncolan is pretty good. He has surgery for this problem so normally it should be better in 2011.

I'd love to see Martin have a bigger go in the Giro or Vuelta and the other stage races too... No point wasting him just to chug around at the Tour as their 3rd or 4th climber.

 

[ttrider]

Haussler, Martin and Danielson should do the Giro Vuelta for sure
I think Martin has a very good chance at top 5 in both if his breathing problem is sorted out, no point in haussler hushovd and farrar @ the tour.

 

[Jamsque]

Christian Vande Velde leader
Ryder Hesjedal co-leader
Tyler Farrar sprinter
Julian Dean pilot fish
David Millar super-domestique & TTT Engine no. 1
Thor Hushovd leadout/alternate sprinter/breakaways
Dave Zabriskie domestique & TTT Engine no. 2
Dan Martin mountain domestique & breakaway artist
Brett Lancaster domestique & lead-out

 

[Rocksteady]

Christian Vande Velde leader
Ryder Hesjedal co-leader
Tyler Farrar sprinter
Julian Dean pilot fish
David Millar super-domestique & TTT Engine no. 1
Thor Hushovd leadout/alternate sprinter/breakaways
Dave Zabriskie domestique & TTT Engine no. 2
Dan Martin mountain domestique & breakaway artist
Brett Lancaster domestique & lead-out

CVV will not to the Giro again, no doubt in my mind. That leaves a spot in the Giro for Dan Martin or Tommy D. there.

For sure at the Tour:
CVV
Ryder
Farrar
Hushovd

Others I think should go:
Millar
Van Summeran
Le Mevel (could be the "Garmin Surprise" of the year even though he has already done quite well)
Dean
DZ

This gives a leadout of DZ, Millar, Dean, Hushovd, Farrar
A TTT of DZ, Millar, CVV, Ryder, Le Mevel (not sure on his TT abilities) plus Farrar and Thor who aren't bad at TTs for Sprinters

Breakaways are ... Maybe Ryder (maybe not this year), Hushovd
Mountains are Van Summeran, Ryder, Le Mevel, CVV

 

[Race Radio]

I thought they iced Danny?

Yup, he moved to HTC

 

[goggalor]

Forget about Hushovd as a leadout.

 

[ingsve]

Forget about Hushovd as a leadout.

Why do you think that? I'm sure that he would do his job for the team when the time comes for Farrar to sprint.

 

[Angliru]

This roster is a disaster for the Tour. Vande Velde is not going to contend for the GC and everyone else on that roster has their best years behind them.

Also, bifurcating a Tour strategy between the green jersey (Thor and Farrar) and the GC (VandeVelde) is a reckless strategy. No team I know of does both - at least not successfully.

Vaughters is desperate for a Tour de France stage win or at least something more than just "being there." For all the money Garmin has dumped into this team, its results in the Tour de France are non-existent.

Haussler and Farrar have yet to reach their "peak" performance wise and Hesjedal seems to be just coming into his own. Maaskant surely has yet to reach his peak although he has had 2 years of stagnation after his impressive
efforts at Paris-Roubaix and Flanders from, was it 2008?

I think they will get that elusive Tour stage win though.

 

[goggalor]

Why do you think that? I'm sure that he would do his job for the team when the time comes for Farrar to sprint.

Hushovd is a star, not a watercarrier. His ego is too big to be a leadout man, and his legs are too fast as well. If Garmin want to win the green jersey, they should ride for either Haussler or Hushovd. What has Farrar got that Cavendish hasn't? Haussler or Hushovd in form can podium in Cav's stage wins, and win sprints where Cav doesn't place. And Farrar has shown nothing in the Tour yet, Hushovd and Haussler both have. I'd leave Farrar out of the Tour team, though that probably won't happen.

Anyway, I'm sure a lot will sort itself out for Garmin in the months before the Tour...

 

[ingsve]

Hushovd is a star, not a watercarrier. His ego is too big to be a leadout man, and his legs are too fast as well.

I don't think that's remotely true. You could see in the vuelta a few times that Hushovd helped Theo Bos to get in position before some sprints that he himself didn't contest and on certain occasions in classics he encouraged Haussler to attack and go for his own results eventhough Hushovd was in the same group.

When he thinks he has a shot at winning then of course he will expect to have support but when he himself is not interested in a perticular race I haven't seen anything to suggest that he is above helping his teammates.

 

[online-rider]

Hushovd is a star, not a watercarrier. His ego is too big to be a leadout man, and his legs are too fast as well. If Garmin want to win the green jersey, they should ride for either Haussler or Hushovd. What has Farrar got that Cavendish hasn't? Haussler or Hushovd in form can podium in Cav's stage wins, and win sprints where Cav doesn't place. And Farrar has shown nothing in the Tour yet, Hushovd and Haussler both have. I'd leave Farrar out of the Tour team, though that probably won't happen.

Anyway, I'm sure a lot will sort itself out for Garmin in the months before the Tour...

Its true Farrar has had loads of chances. Haussler is a rider who excites me a lot more and honestly I think he's pushed Cav closer than Farrar has.

 

[Ferminal]

Just send Haussler out on a mission in the wet, there's your stage win.

 

[Glockers]

With Thor on the team isn't dean redundant? I mean Farrar would be going off Thor's wheel I would have thought.

Train = Miller then Lancaster then Thor then Farrar?

 

[ingsve]

With Thor on the team isn't dean redundant? I mean Farrar would be going off Thor's wheel I would have thought.

Train = Miller then Lancaster then Thor then Farrar?

I'm not sure that would be the best idea. I would do Zabriskie-Millar-Hushovd-Dean-Farrar. Dean has more experience at leading out and it can often go somewhat wrong when a finisher tries to take the role of last lead out.

 

[goggalor]

When he thinks he has a shot at winning then of course he will expect to have support but when he himself is not interested in a perticular race I haven't seen anything to suggest that he is above helping his teammates.

Yeah, but he won't be happy leading out Farrar if he wants the green jersey. Even if he's never fast enough to beat Cav in a flat sprint, I think he'd rather place top three than lead out Farrar who might win one out of five.