GC Power Ranking

[bNator]

Guys, one myth at a time, shall we? Wheel sucks, doesn't' attack ... Is Rogla still old? Anyway, this bubble some of you are living in here will eventually burst too.

This is on how it must have been at Visma at the end, on and on about Jonas and Pogi. And now we see that it's still about Rogla too. Rest assured.

I like the way you reason. Here we have 4 different statements about Roglic:
1. Roglic wheel sucks
2. Roglic doesn't attack
3. Roglic is old
4. Roglic is below Jonas and Pogi in power ranking.

And since the first 3 statements (which you selected) are myths, 4th statement (which also you selected) must be a myth also? In fact - the 3 statements being myths prove that 4th statement is a myth?

 

[tobydawq]

Of somebody else's mind?

Huh?

 

[SHAD0W93]

Same domestiques with whom Mas wiped the floor at this Vuelta?

Almeida would have beat Mas and was ahead of him, Adam was disappointing.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Too young.

@dercuforever

Weak argument, age.

That top 10 looks something like this:

1. Paco Mancebo
2. Óscar Sevilla
3. Luis Ángel Maté
4. Jakob Fuglsang
5. Chris Froome
6. Geraint Thomas
7. Robert Gesink
8. Thomas De Gendt
9. Michael Woods
10. Steven Kruijswijk

Roglič is nowhere near the top.

 

[tobydawq]

All in all i am glad we had this discussion, challenge accepted. To beat Pogi and Jonas (and Remco) in future GTs, as in the end what else is Rogla going to do? Rogla is mostly still not eligible for beating any serious age related record, so there goes the age advantage. Considering Rogla being in his peak years, in between 34 and around 38, numbers rather consistent with starting his career 10 years late.

As long as Rogla keeps beating them it doesn't really matter on who has Rogla at first, second, third or fourth position. Lets not forget, people having Rogla at fourth would likely be the first one to pop-up in Rogličes thread, would Rogla crash at the Vuelta 2024.

What does any of this even mean?

 

[Berniece]

What does any of this even mean?

No one knows what it means, but it's provocative

 

[Froome]

IMHO this doesn't leave all that much to interpretation.





Easy there tiger.

@CyclistAbi you know very well, Roglic can compete against the numbers Pogacar produced in the Tour. Nevertheless, like i said, i was impressed with roglic in this Vuelta.

 

[OlavEH]

That bring us to the logical conclusion :

1) Pogacar
2) Vingegaard (maybe 1 because of poor preparation)

3) Remco
4) Roglic (will age :'( )- stronger unipuerto climber than Remco but lesser ITT

Agree on this. Pretty accurate.

5) Almeida

6) Ayuso (I believe)
7) Mas/A.Yates
8) Carapaz/Landa and many others ...

This is far more difficult to tell IMO. I'm a bit disappointed by the level of GC riders behind the big 4. And it certainly doesn't help that far too many of them end up being domestiques for the big 4.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Yes, but this won't have a negative effect on his performance, Remco might even get better at Bora. While Mas chose money over performance.

I can't really blame Mas for not beating Rogla at a GT in terms of saying he is performing bad. On the opposite i feel Mas is performing rather good and is rather consistent it's just that he is racing against Rogla and good luck in beating Rogla at a stage race.

I like the way you reason. Here we have 4 different statements about Roglic:
1. Roglic wheel sucks
2. Roglic doesn't attack
3. Roglic is old
4. Roglic is below Jonas and Pogi in power ranking.

And since the first 3 statements (which you selected) are myths, 4th statement (which also you selected) must be a myth also? In fact - the 3 statements being myths prove that 4th statement is a myth?

First of all thank you for understanding me i really do appreciate that. Exactly, one at a time. People in this thread seem to suggest Rogla can't beat Pogi or Jonas at a GT, so lets burst that bubble too.

Challenge accepted.

Huh?

What does any of this even mean?

C'mon i am not even asking to go that extra mile, please at least try.

That top 10 looks something like this:

1. Paco Mancebo
2. Óscar Sevilla
3. Luis Ángel Maté
4. Jakob Fuglsang
5. Chris Froome
6. Geraint Thomas
7. Robert Gesink
8. Thomas De Gendt
9. Michael Woods
10. Steven Kruijswijk

You have good taste, no wonder you are a Rogla fan.

@CyclistAbi you know very well, Roglic can compete against the numbers Pogacar produced in the Tour.

Yes, we both do know that perfectly well.

Nevertheless, like i said, i was impressed with roglic in this Vuelta.

+1

 

[Samu Cuenca]

You have good taste, no wonder you are a Rogla fan.

Well I guess I've been called worse things in my life.

 

[Netserk]

I definitely don't agree with that.

How would you rank the performances of the GC riders in the Vuelta? I don't see the case for putting O'Connor ahead of Carapaz, Skjelmose and Gaudu when it comes to overall strength and consistency.

As the circumstances differed so much, I'm not even sure if he was better in the Giro or the Vuelta.

Riders who are definitely better GC riders than O'Connor: Pogi, Vingegaard, Rogla, Evenepoel, A. Yates, Almeida, Landa, Mas, Carapaz, Jorgenson, Rodríguez, Ayuso. Riders who on balance probably ranks above O'Connor: Martinez, Kuss, Hindley, Gaudu, Thomas, Tiberi, Skjelmose, S. Yates, Gall, Gee, Lipowitz.

Are there any in the first category you rank below O'Connor? How many from the second category?

 

[Netserk]

I would not give it to Tiberi, Gall, Gee or Lipowitz. Jorgenson also probably not.

So O'Connor would rank as ~20th. Very much in line with my more firm opinion:

O'Connor doesn’t make the top-15, maybe not even top-20.

EDIT: I won't budge on Jorgenson. I see only race program/circumstances/results in O'Connor's favour. Performances (over the whole season) are miles apart.

 

[Jan the Man]

How would you rank the performances of the GC riders in the Vuelta? I don't see the case for putting O'Connor ahead of Carapaz, Skjelmose and Gaudu when it comes to overall strength and consistency.

As the circumstances differed so much, I'm not even sure if he was better in the Giro or the Vuelta.

Riders who are definitely better GC riders than O'Connor: Pogi, Vingegaard, Rogla, Evenepoel, A. Yates, Almeida, Landa, Mas, Carapaz, Jorgenson, Rodríguez, Ayuso. Riders who on balance probably ranks above O'Connor: Martinez, Kuss, Hindley, Gaudu, Thomas, Tiberi, Skjelmose, S. Yates, Gall, Gee, Lipowitz.

Are there any in the first category you rank below O'Connor? How many from the second category?

Tiberi better now than O’Connor? I agree Tiberi’s ceiling is higher than O’Connor but O’Connor finished the Giro ahead of Tiberi and just come off the Vuelta podium.

In a GT i don’t see how one can rate Lipowitz, Gee or Skjelmose ahead of him based upon results.

 

[Jan the Man]

Practically there are 4 way clear. There is then a bracket of 3/4 who are the next best i would class Martinez, Hindley, Mas, Almeida and probably Ayuso (i am discounting G because he is unlikely to factor GC wise after this year) after that there are a load of riders who depending on form and race situation are in the mix- Yates, Yates, Rodriguez, Gaudu, O’Connor, Gall, Arensman, Kuss, Tiberi, Geoghen Hart, Cicccone, Skjelmose, Jorgensen, Gee etc who you can throw a blanket over. Some have a higher ceiling and have done it ie S Yates but its much of a muchness

 

[Netserk]

Tiberi better now than O’Connor? I agree Tiberi’s ceiling is higher than O’Connor but O’Connor finished the Giro ahead of Tiberi and just come off the Vuelta podium.

In a GT i don’t see how one can rate Lipowitz, Gee or Skjelmose ahead of him based upon results.

Skjelmose TT'ed better and climbed better than O'Connor over the whole Vuelta.

 

[tobydawq]

How would you rank the performances of the GC riders in the Vuelta? I don't see the case for putting O'Connor ahead of Carapaz, Skjelmose and Gaudu when it comes to overall strength and consistency.

As the circumstances differed so much, I'm not even sure if he was better in the Giro or the Vuelta.

Riders who are definitely better GC riders than O'Connor: Pogi, Vingegaard, Rogla, Evenepoel, A. Yates, Almeida, Landa, Mas, Carapaz, Jorgenson, Rodríguez, Ayuso. Riders who on balance probably ranks above O'Connor: Martinez, Kuss, Hindley, Gaudu, Thomas, Tiberi, Skjelmose, S. Yates, Gall, Gee, Lipowitz.

Are there any in the first category you rank below O'Connor? How many from the second category?

I would rank him second. I don't know if he would have ended there without his raid (I probably do know that he wouldn't) but he defended himself well.

I think you're being very unfair against him. He is the only one not named Pogacar, Roglic or Vingegaard to finish in the top 4 in two Grand Tours in the same year since 2018 (and if you're gonna say that top 4 isn't a real thing, then we can extend to top 5 and say that he's the only one apart from those three and Mas since 2018).

So if accomplishments and results can also be taken for something here and it isn't only a w/kg discussion, then I would have him above Lipowitz, Gee (lol), Gall, S Yates, Skjelmose, Tiberi, Thomas (because I think O'Connor performed quite a bit better in the Vuelta than in the Giro, and I also don't think Thomas has another GT in him), Hindley, Kuss (those two need to show something again, based on 2024 it would be quite unreasonable to have them above O'Connor), Martínez, Rodríguez, Jorgenson and Carapaz (who still has something to prove after a bad time since the '22 Giro).

Then I believe there are 9 riders left where you could argue for some that he should be above them but given the very, very high level of the '24 Tour, I think I would hesitate with being too certain about that for anyone who finished top 6, and given what he showed in this Vuelta, I'd also still have Mas slightly above him, and Ayuso is a joker but takes it home on his higher potential but soon needs to show it to keep his position.

 

[Netserk]

I would rank him second.

Then we simply talk about two wildly different things. My power ranking is based on my estimate of their abilities as they have shown them.

Would Evenepoel even have made your top-10 last year?

 

[tobydawq]

Then we simply talk about two wildly different things. My power ranking is based on my estimate of their abilities as they have shown them.

Would Evenepoel even have made your top-10 last year?

Maybe third or fourth, I can admit that. But please also read the rest of the post where I go more into detail with the names you listed.

 

[Netserk]

Maybe third or fourth, I can admit that. But please also read the rest of the post where I go more into detail with the names you listed.

Going over the details doesn't make sense if your ranking is of results and mine is of abilities.

 

[tobydawq]

Going over the details doesn't make sense if your ranking is of results and mine is of abilities.

I did say that I wouldn't stand hard by ranking him second for the Vuelta.

The rest of the post addresses the ranking more nuanced than just focusing on results.

But thanks for making me make that post and then not even taking the time to read it.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

My ranking would look something like this:

1.Pogacar
2. Vingegaard

While it is a very close contest between the two, I would still rank Vingegaard slightly higher in Grand Tours. However, Pogacar demonstrates exceptional strength in one-week races and maintains peak form throughout the year.

3. Roglic
4. Evenepoel

Similarly, the competition between these two is tight, but Roglic’s experience and achievements place him in third. Over the past six years, Roglic has participated in 12 Grand Tours, winning four and finishing on the podium in eight. He DNF the remaining four. Additionally, Roglic has competed in 13 one-week World Tour races, securing six victories. In contrast, Evenepoel has yet to win a one-week World Tour race, having made eight attempts over the last three years.

5. Yates
6. Almeida

Yates holds the fifth spot in my ranking. Although Almeida is gaining ground, Yates has won two one-week World Tour races over the past two seasons, while Almeida has yet to secure a victory.

7. Ayuso
8. Mas

Mas is the stronger rider in Grand Tours, but Ayuso excels in one-week races. Over the course of his career, Mas has finished in the top five of a one-week World Tour race only three times out of 23 starts, with his best result being fifth place.

9. Landa
10. O'Connor
11. Rodriguez

Landa ranks ninth due to his consistent performance in both Grand Tours and one-week races. As for the tenth spot, it's difficult to decide. Many riders could be considered, but for me, it's between O'Connor and Rodriguez. O'Connor's superior results in Grand Tours give him the edge, but he is also a strong competitor in one-week races.

 

[Netserk]

I did say that I wouldn't stand hard by ranking him second for the Vuelta.

The rest of the post addresses the ranking more nuanced than just focusing on results.

But thanks for making me make that post and then not even taking the time to read it.

I did read your whole post, but I usually focus my disagreement on its highest level. My original post was about where O'Connor ranks (based on abilities), and it seems that your disagreement with that is on the fundamental level of how to do a ranking.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Then we simply talk about two wildly different things. My power ranking is based on my estimate of their abilities as they have shown them.

I agree with you on rating their abilities and not their ranking in GC. But then you also have to take into account context. It was O'Connor's second GT this year. Not a lot of riders are able to finish top 5 both times. While he got time for free in the Vuelta, he did not in the Giro IIRC. My point being that after riding the Giro all out for GC, he was still able to defend his GC in the Vuelta. Check recent results of riders going to the Giro for GC and then check their Vuelta results. Hindley won the Giro and was a complete non-factor in the Vuelta that same year. Comparing his efforts to Skjelmose who made the Vuelta his sole season goal, is not correct imho.

Also, when you are leading the Vuelta with multiple minutes after a breakaway, especially when you are not the favorite to win GC, you will race very differently, compared to when you would be an outsider for the podium or top 5. Basically, O'Connor has focussed the entire Vuelta on defending his lead. Trying to manage his efforts and stretch his lead as far as he could. He was the one that had to react, he was the one that was being attacked, his team was the team that had to set the pace. O'Connor could not just slide along and follow wheels the same way Skjelmose could. O'Connor had to go to the podium ceremony and press conference for the better part of 3 weeks, while Skjelmose only had to go to the podium for the white jersey, but without the press conferences every day.

Perhaps Skjelmose will prove to be the better 3 week GC rider (he's already better at 1 week GC's) but so far this Vuelta doesn't prove that.

 

[Netserk]

I agree with you on rating their abilities and not their ranking in GC. But then you also have to take into account context. It was O'Connor's second GT this year. Not a lot of riders are able to finish top 5 both times. While he got time for free in the Vuelta, he did not in the Giro IIRC. My point being that after riding the Giro all out for GC, he was still able to defend his GC in the Vuelta. Check recent results of riders going to the Giro for GC and then check their Vuelta results. Hindley won the Giro and was a complete non-factor in the Vuelta that same year. Comparing his efforts to Skjelmose who made the Vuelta his sole season goal, is not correct imho.

Also, when you are leading the Vuelta with multiple minutes after a breakaway, especially when you are not the favorite to win GC, you will race very differently, compared to when you would be an outsider for the podium or top 5. Basically, O'Connor has focussed the entire Vuelta on defending his lead. Trying to manage his efforts and stretch his lead as far as he could. He was the one that had to react, he was the one that was being attacked, his team was the team that had to set the pace. O'Connor could not just slide along and follow wheels the same way Skjelmose could. O'Connor had to go to the podium ceremony and press conference for the better part of 3 weeks, while Skjelmose only had to go to the podium for the white jersey, but without the press conferences every day.

Perhaps Skjelmose will prove to be the better 3 week GC rider (he's already better at 1 week GC's) but so far this Vuelta doesn't prove that.

So if O'Connor had abandoned the Giro in the first week with no lingering effect, didn't get hampered quite as much by the heat in the first four stages of the Vuelta and subsequently went in no breakaways, but rode for GC in the manner that he did in the Giro, you think he'd have been more likely to beat Skjelmose in GC than not? That's how I interpret your post in my framework.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

So if O'Connor had abandoned the Giro in the first week with no lingering effect, didn't get hampered quite as much by the heat in the first four stages of the Vuelta and subsequently went in no breakaways, but rode for GC in the manner that he did in the Giro, you think he'd have been more likely to beat Skjelmose in GC than not? That's how I interpret your post in my framework.

If he had not gone to the Giro, and focussed on the Vuelta from the beginning, go for GC, not for breaks, then i would not put any money on Skjelmose finishing ahead. I believe riding the Giro beforehand is a bigger factor than you make it out to be or believe to be. Look at riders like Almeida, Hindley, Carapaz... in recent years, who went for GC in the Giro, and then also went for the Vuelta.