Geelong 2010: Elite Men's Road Race 262.7km

[jaylew]

Freire to win if its a bunch sprint.

I'm just not convinced Oscar will be on form, though it wouldn't be the 1st time he found form from nowhere. Hushovd and Davis to podium if it comes down to a sprint of 40 or so.

 

[Polyarmour]

Cancellara to attack 2-3 laps out and TT to the end.

 

[craig1985]

If Cadel wins or another Australian wins, expect ACF to be gloating to the cows come home. Michael Matthews winning the U23 race, his team Collingwood (Australia's answer to the New York Yankees or Manchester United in terms of being hated) won the AFL Grand Final replay, and potentially an Australian win (although however much they might be an outsider).

 

[Ney the Viking]

When is the race, and who covers it? Thanks in advance.

 

[Spare Tyre]

When is the race, and who covers it? Thanks in advance.

The race is tomorrow morning, 10 am local time, which is 9 hours ahead of CET. (We're 8 hours ahead this evening, but shift to Summer Time overnight.)

Try UCI info re TV broadcasts

Otherwise Steephill and CyclingFans for streams.

 

[craig1985]

When is the race, and who covers it? Thanks in advance.

This is another good place to watch streams.

 

[Tuarts]

Well what has the Espoirs and Women races shown us?

Some observations:

A bunch (20-60 riders) sprint is the most likely of scenarios.
Not a traditional sprint though with it being uphill and the selection after the climbs.
Dominant team wont necessairly pull off a win(Ex. GB in Womens).
Dominant team can pull off a win (Ex. Aus in Espoirs).
Riders can break free on the climbs but so far advatages haven't been enough, although in the Womens race it was nearly successful (500m?).

What I think will happen:

Either we will get a bunch sprint. This will be likely if a breakaway manages to get away before Geelong I think, it'll stave off any sort of attacks once on the circuit. If that happens, Freire will be favourite and my other tips are Davis and Pozzato and any other sprinter who still has the legs.

Or

Bunch is all together for the last 1-2 laps, last lap a few riders attack and get a breakway that stays away. This will be more suited to Gilbert, Kolobnev, Cancellara, Evans to win I think. Personally I think this may be the end result but t all depends on how hard the peleton push. The potential is there though.

The course may be suited for a bunch sprint but if you can't climb or go up short hills, then you really shouldn't be at the Worlds (unless there's no one else ).

 

[velosiped]

This will be a race with lots of suspense.
The favorites want to get rid of the true sprinters, which will require explosion up the hills at least on the last 2-3 laps.
No one want to hit the finishing ascent with the dreaded red norwegian jerseys in their canthuses. How to get rid of them? High speed during the whole race will kill Boasson - and Sagan. Are they there at the end one of them might win. Hushovd must be eliminated maybe on the last hill. Same with Freire. The escapes must work together to the end to keep the distance. If not ...
Spartacus must go solo to win.
The Sanchezes might be up for something. Watch out!
A finish with the favs, could Breschel or Feillu be there to match Gilbert/Pozzato/Kolobnev?
Lesser known aussies like Davis/Goss will not win it.
The french will attack. How's Chavanel's form? Geslin dark horse?
Attack on last hill and tempo towards the finish: look out for Evans, Schleck, Velits. Why not Brajkovic? Mayday, mayday, the favs will probably have no helpers here.
Winner? 20-25 man group - Hushovd/Freire.
5-10 man group - Gilbert/Pozzato.
Solo - Evans/Schleck.

I can't wait ...

 

[Dalakhani]

The race is tomorrow morning, 10 am local time, which is 9 hours ahead of CET. (We're 8 hours ahead this evening, but shift to Summer Time overnight.)

The Aussies are changing their clocks tonight, but we Euros are staying the same?

Flippin' eck.

This is getting confusing. Simple question: at what time (UK) to I switch the BBC on to watch the start?

I have 1am written down in my diary.

Help!

Steve

 

[Mambo95]

The Aussies are changing their clocks tonight, but we Euros are staying the same?

Flippin' eck.

This is getting confusing. Simple question: at what time (UK) to I switch the BBC on to watch the start?

I have 1am written down in my diary.

Help!

Steve

I don't know when the race actually starts, but the coverage starts (on the red button) at 10.40pm

 

[Sneekes]

Does anyone have a race timetable? Trying to figure out when to set my alarm for.

 

[moblet]

Northerly winds would be tail/cross on the stretch from Melbourne to Geelong. I'm not sure how they would affect the circuit.

Strong northerly winds should have the following effects:
1. Most of the first 80km is very exposed. Going to be more cross than tail for the first 50km, so everyone will have to work and there's potential for splits. We could lose a lot of the minnows in the first hour and no one will be completely fresh when they hit the circuits.
2. A long breakaway has to have no chance.
3. It's going to be difficult, likely impossible, for a solo or small group to follow through after attacking on either climb if there is any organisation in the chase. 50m after the first summit, and less than 1km after the second, the road turns directly into the wind for the following 2km. The top of the first climb will be the windiest place on the circuit. The Gilbert/Evans tactic of trying to fly away on the climbs in the last lap and hold on for the remaning 5km becomes harder, especially for lighter riders. The "easy" place to go solo is now at 2km to go, where the road hits the waterfront and the wind kicks in from behind. For that last 2km there will be no advantage from drafting. Given how tired everyone will be by the finish I could see Gilbert and any or all other long-range finishers going from 2km out and having a great chance of pulling it off.
4. For the same reasons as 3, anyone who gets dropped on either climb and is isolated may never be seen again. Catching the bunch after the climbs will be harder for the men than it was for the women (who had a light southerly wind). This helps those teams playing an attrition strategy and works against sprinters who are likely to need an expendable supply of teammates to help them rejoin (Cavendish springs to mind).
5. Of the final 4km, the first 2km will be straight into the wind (after climb #2), while most of the last 2km will have a tailwind, so there's going to be a big difference between holding a gap with 4km to go and holding one with 2km to go. A 40km/h tailwind for what's already an uphill sprint tilts it even further towards the smaller riders. If Cavendish is there at the end - I rate that about a zero chance - it's his to lose, and no one else is going to want to be there with Freire.
6. Northerlies also mean much warmer temps than Melbourne has seen for the past two weeks (10C higher), and very low humidity (could be as low as 10%), so dehydration might catch a few out too. They can also cause hay fever (Gesundheit, Señor Freire).
7. Domestiques may get shelled earlier than planned. I'm expecting it to shatter into every man for himself for the last 5km like the women's race did. The women's race hinged on the presence of one or two teammates available to chase over the closing few km, but those teammates were helped by a tailwind to rejoin the leaders, whereas for the men the wind will make it much harder for teammates to rejoin and have any influence.

I don't know how the characteristics of the Italian riders suit these conditions and since they have no cards to play in a sprint finish I'm looking forward to seeing what they do. They seem to be really good at selecting both riders and tactics for complicated races so I wouldn't bet against them achieving at least a podium. I also reckon that if everyone is looking at each other when they turn into the wind at 4km to go, and Cancellara gets away, they'll all be racing for second place. LL Sanchez is also a bigger rider and if he has prepared for this course he'd have to fancy his chances too.

 

[Praetor]

I'm just not convinced Oscar will be on form, though it wouldn't be the 1st time he found form from nowhere. Hushovd and Davis to podium if it comes down to a sprint of 40 or so.

If you saw the way Marianne Vos managed to rip apart most of the peloton with her fierce sprint, I would think Gilbert or Pozzato would be able to do something similar.

Yes, Freire or Hushovd are probably more impressive than the average woman in that peloton, but then again, so is Gilbert.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

^ vos was quick, but went to early.

The final stretch of challambra cres. is really steep. But the climb might not be enough to get rid of the likes of friere and hushovd. Certainly a nice climb for gilbert to have a dig, but it's a long way from the end.

It really depends on how the peleton tackles the entire race. Lets hope they try to really blow it up.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Boy howdy I really want to see Cuddles dodge questions about Contador!

Oh no, wait, no I don't.

If Cadel wins or another Australian wins, expect ACF to be gloating to the cows come home. Michael Matthews winning the U23 race, his team Collingwood (Australia's answer to the New York Yankees or Manchester United in terms of being hated) won the AFL Grand Final replay, and potentially an Australian win (although however much they might be an outsider).

Cadel is going to do it for aldo sassi and Auscyclefan94. ACF94 will streak across the whole circuit if Cadel wins!!! There was a full page on Cadel's beautiful wife Chiara. Interesting read. Cadel has said he will go harder than he has ever done before to win these worlds.

Cadel's "pimped up" bike for tommorow

 

[Dalakhani]

I don't know when the race actually starts, but the coverage starts (on the red button) at 10.40pm

Thanks for that. I reckon, as long as I switch on before midnight, I'll miss nothing.

Steve

 

[ttrider]

Im putting my bets on 3
Friere (course for him great sprint)
Goss (GP Plouay is harder and he is in form and very quick)
Sagan (Would be perfect for him but length and lack of experience make it unlikely)

Dont think it will be selective enough for Gilbert etc

 

[Ferminal]

Thanks for that. I reckon, as long as I switch on before midnight, I'll miss nothing.

Steve

The race will start at Midnight in the UK (Melbourne is +10:00 GMT, +9:00 BST but clocks go forward overnight so it will be +11:00 and +10:00)

10:00-10:00 = Midnight, so you should be good

 

[theyoungest]

Im putting my bets on 3
Friere (course for him great sprint)
Goss (GP Plouay is harder and he is in form and very quick)
Sagan (Would be perfect for him but length and lack of experience make it unlikely)

Dont think it will be selective enough for Gilbert etc

The course is harder, but the racing probably wasn't. Otherwise I have high hopes of Wout Poels winning this

 

[online-rider]

This is another good place to watch streams.

 

[Sophistic]

Gilbert in a small group(<10) sprint, there are too many teams who have no interest in a big bunch arrival as well as enough superstrong climbers who can rip the peloton apart big time even on just 1,7km of climbing.
Evans, Schleck, Kolobnev...they are not gonna wait for anybody on the last lap.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Thanks for that. I reckon, as long as I switch on before midnight, I'll miss nothing.

Steve

You'd be better off getting an early night and waking up between 5 and 6.

90% of people who try to watch the whole thing will drop off to sleep a couple of hours before the action starts.

 

[Ferminal]

I'd love to see Kolobnev win but a heroic 15km solo will be unlikely

 

[goggalor]

Hushovd will win this.

You heard it here first.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Hushovd will win this.

You heard it here first.

Worst. Result. Evar.