King Of The Mountain's said:
How long are the cobbles before the finish can the sprinter's survive if so cav will have good chance if similar to kurrne
There's a fair way in, but it's not as typically a sprinter's race as Kuurne; the comment of it being a 'sprinter's classic' at the start is a bit of a misnomer; it's not Paris-Tours or anything, but sprinters can hold on. However, this edition is both longer and harder; they've been trying to up the distance and increase the difficulty for a few years now, as it has historically been about little more than which sprinter could get over the Kemmelberg best.
They've added the two approaches to Mont Cassel (which they're calling the Casselberg, the same as the Quatre Jours de Dunkerque uses "Mont Kemmel" instead of the Kemmelberg), the usual spot of the queen stage of the Quatre Jours de Dunkerque.
The first approach (the main one) is fairly long but shallow, with a max gradient of 7%.
More info on the climb here. It looks to me like the second ascent is
this one, though it may also, if we're lucky, be
this one, which is much steeper (max 19%), but isn't cobbled until the town square.
Last year's was won by Boonen in a sprint of a group of around 40-50.
2010's was won by Eisel from a group of 6, with Iglinsky behind, then another small group, then the bunch 3'30 down.
2009's was won by Boasson Hagen in a 2-up sprint with Kuschynski, with a chasing group a minute back, Koldo Fernández on his own (a Euskaltel rider in the top 10 of a cobbled classic!!!), then the bunch at 2'14".
2008's was won by Freire from a bunch of 75.
2007's was won by Burghardt, who beat a chasing group of Hammond, Ventoso, Freire and Mengin, with the bunch at 15"
2006's was won by Hushovd from a bunch of about 40.
2005's was won by Mattan just ahead of Flecha, a small chase group with Cancellara and Hushovd and the bunch at 18".
2004's was won by Boonen from a group of 25.
2003's was won by Klier in a three-up agains Vogels and Boonen. Ongarato, Knaven and Belohscoviks trailed behind, a chase group with Museeuw was a minute back and the bunch four minutes down.
2002's was the famous one where Mario Cipollini soloed across to a small group and beat them in the sprint with the next chase group (with Boonen and Zabel) a minute and a half down.
Bearing in mind that apart from 2008 Gent-Wevelgem has had a maximum of about 50 riders coming in to the finish together, and that they've made it longer and included more bergs since then, I'd say Flecha, or the two guys on the team who've won this race in the last three years are all better bets for Sky than Cavendish. Sure, Cavendish is a weapon in the event it goes to a big sprint, but they don't want to waste any engines on carrying him if Eisel, EBH or Flecha are feeling good.
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