Gilbert vs. Cancellara-who has the best chance of winning all 5 monuments?

[El Pistolero]

To be honest, it's next to impossible for any cyclist to win Paris-Roubaix at the moment thanks to Cancellara and Tom Boonen.

Unless of course they both have a mechanical during a crucial moment, which happens a lot in a race like that.

 

[theyoungest]

Everybody develops in a diff way... 23 years old in cycling is like being a baby... Andy, Gesink, etc... are exceptions... that's why an opportunity to EBH... Just 2 or 3 years more if nothing happens well I can send him to the recycle bin..

I know, although he's a third year pro already... but even in a cyclist's baby phase (pun intended) you can see where his real talent lies, and for EBH, it's definitely not the climbing. For now he's only been a decent sprinter with a good time trial. It would be quite strange if he suddenly turned into an Ardennes rider... but who knows.

 

[carrai]

What about Hesjedal? He did good job in the cobbles on TdF

 

[saganftw]

sagan is longshot,hes 20 and looks like evolving into bettini but who knows what his focus will be...he could do good paris roubaix because he has size and good bikehandling skills,actually i give him more chance winning cobbled classics than hilly

 

[ericthesportsman6]

What about Hesjedal? He did good job in the cobbles on TdF

No Way. He's 29, and doesn't even have a top 10 at any of the momument classics. If he had this year's form when he was 23, maybe, but even then he would have been a long shot. It takes years to perfect winning a race like Roubaix, and Hesjedal has never even competed.

 

[theyoungest]

How about [insert rider from your country who has done moderately well in any race whatsoever]?

 

[nvpacchi]

At one time Alessandro Ballan may have had a chance, but his ship has definitely sailed.

Edit: random name but how about Mikhail Ignatiev? I don't know much about him, but he attacks the hell out of every race he enters? Can he get over hills? I know he can pound it on the flats.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

How about [insert rider from your country who has done moderately well in any race whatsoever]?

THE GREAT BAUKE MOLLEMA

He can own whole nations you know

 

[hscoach2]

I'm going to have to go with Gilbert, because being Belgian is a pre-requisite

 

[turtlesoup]

FC is too heavy and would have to completely overhaul his entire style to take LBL or the likes. Isnt there talks of him going for the hour record? i doubt we see him going for the former any time soon.

 

[FignonLeGrand]

Considering how well Fabian did in the mendrisio wc rr and at the olympics in beijing I'ld guess he has a good shot at LBL and GdL. Am I missing something?

World champs is on a circuit and has a totally different dynamic with it being national teams. No way Spartacus can win LBL; too long, too many different types of climbs and he is too big. LBL is for a GC type rider.

 

[Bordercollie1]

There is always a better chance of a rouleur or sprinter winning a hilly classic than a hilly classic specialist adapting to cobbles. Bettini could win Lombardy or Liege at will but always struggled at the Flanders.

For that reason I think Cancellara is the guy with the best chance of doing it, and I think he has already won the toughest (Milan San Remo)

Lombardy should be in the bag for Cancellara if he turns up fully prepared. The top riders are not peaking for Lombardy, most of them don't even bother too much with the Worlds.

That leaves Liege, and he is on the same team as the two favourites.

 

[icefire]

There is always a better chance of a rouleur or sprinter winning a hilly classic than a hilly classic specialist adapting to cobbles. Bettini could win Lombardy or Liege at will but always struggled at the Flanders.

For that reason I think Cancellara is the guy with the best chance of doing it, and I think he has already won the toughest (Milan San Remo)

Lombardy should be in the bag for Cancellara if he turns up fully prepared. The top riders are not peaking for Lombardy, most of them don't even bother too much with the Worlds.

That leaves Liege, and he is on the same team as the two favourites.

I doubt that will be the case next year.

 

[jaylew]

Cancellara, if only because he already has 3 of the 5.

 

[scribe]

Canc has talked about the possiblity. He might opt for the hour record if he can't necessarily tackle hilly classics or Worlds. He ain't never gonna drop weight in an effort to win a GT, so that shouldn't be part of the discussion.

 

[blaxland]

No one,non of them will,cant ever be done again....Not unless there is someone who can sprint like Cavendish,Ride cobbles like Cancellara,climb short climbs like Valverde and sprint over hills like Gilbert.....nah wont happen......

 

[Kender]

I guess I'd go Cancellera. He's already got 3 of the 5. He'd need to change his engine and make some strides to get Lombardia and Liege... but I guess it could happen.

fixed it for you

 

[il_fiammingo]

I would say Gilbert, because the already won Lombardy, the classic the least suited to him. PR is definitely within his reach: winning Het Volk twice and podiuming the RvV twice shows he knows how to ride the cobbles. IMO he could give this a serious shot when he's older and his explosiveness is decreasing. Even Museeuw won PR for the first time when he was almost 31 and became THE specialist after that.

The problem for both is: are they willing to sacrifice theire favourite races (where the chances of succes are a lot higher) to fill this gap in their palmares?

 

[Jan the Man]

I wouldn't rule out EBH becoming the most all round classic rider of his generation though I feel that MSR and the cobbled classics are where his talents lie at the moment. He won Ghent Welegem when he was only 22 and if you recall Gilbert has only won the February classics until the last couple of years, when he has been much more competitive in Spring and Autum!

People tend to rule riders out on the basis of one bad season; last year he was great at the Giro and in early spring classics. This year he was good in the early season until he had an achillies injury. Know, I am not saying EBH is gonna be the greatest cyclist of his generation, in fact last year he was perhaps overhyped by some, however he should not be written off on the basis of his current season.

 

[theyoungest]

I would say Gilbert, because the already won Lombardy, the classic the least suited to him. PR is definitely within his reach: winning Het Volk twice and podiuming the RvV twice shows he knows how to ride the cobbles. IMO he could give this a serious shot when he's older and his explosiveness is decreasing. Even Museeuw won PR for the first time when he was almost 31 and became THE specialist after that.

The problem for both is: are they willing to sacrifice theire favourite races (where the chances of succes are a lot higher) to fill this gap in their palmares?

Least suited to him? Any race where he can use his uphill explosiveness seems within his reach. That's why I think Roubaix is least suited to him: he knows how to ride the cobbles, yes, but he needs hills to make the difference. Of course he can win in a sprint, but he forces the selection uphill.

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

Devolder could win LBL and Lombardia (very small change, but possible). Don't see him winning MS though...

 

[El Pistolero]

Devolder could win LBL and Lombardia (very small change, but possible). Don't see him winning MS though...

Devolder is overrated. The only reason why he ever won the Tour of Flanders two times was because Boonen was forced into the defensive.

 

[il_fiammingo]

Least suited to him? Any race where he can use his uphill explosiveness seems within his reach. That's why I think Roubaix is least suited to him: he knows how to ride the cobbles, yes, but he needs hills to make the difference. Of course he can win in a sprint, but he forces the selection uphill.

Yes, least suited because of the length of the climbs.
climb to Portone: 6km
Madonna del Ghisallo: 10km of climbing
Civiglio: 5km

The average climb in Liege e.g. is 2km. Major difference IMO. Gilbert might be explosive, but he's not a climber.
And in a broader sense: it took 29 years for a Belgian to win Lombardy since our last victory by Fons De Wolf. This never happened in one of the other 4 classics, so Lombardy doesn't suit any Belgian.

 

[theyoungest]

Yes, least suited because of the length of the climbs.
climb to Portone: 6km
Madonna del Ghisallo: 10km of climbing
Civiglio: 5km

The average climb in Liege e.g. is 2km. Major difference IMO. Gilbert might be explosive, but he's not a climber.
And in a broader sense: it took 29 years for a Belgian to win Lombardy since our last victory by Fons De Wolf. This never happened in one of the other 4 classics, so Lombardy doesn't suit any Belgian.

Meh, the length of the climbs doesn't tell you everything, IMO. Gilbert didn't exactly attack from the bottom of the final climb, to pull that off he'd have to be a true climber. He just rode a smart race.

 

[El Pistolero]

I think the only monumental classic Gilbert can still win in his career is Luik-Bastenaken-Luik. Multiple times that is, a long with more Lombardy wins.

And if he's lucky maybe the Ronde van Vlaanderen. But Paris-Roubaix is the hardest classic of them all, I just don't see him doing it.

If Cancellara decides to focus on the hilly classics(losing weight) he can win all 5 of them. But then again, he ain't Belgian.